“Once you strip out the effects of the debt binge, the artificial stimulus via currency depreciation, and the fabled ‘wealth effect’ from the equity market runup, real GDP growth stripped-down to its core was the grand total of 0.7% last year. Potemkin would be proud.” – David Rosenberg
It appears every president finds the religion of false economic narrative once they ascend to power. Trump never stops babbling and tweeting about the fantastic economy and raging jobs market since his election. He has embraced the stock market bubble as proof of his brilliant leadership, rather than the tens of trillions in debt propping up the most overvalued market in world history. Every president takes credit for any good news, spins bad news as good news, or blames the previous president for bad news that can’t be denied. The president has absolutely zero impact on the economy or stock market over the short term. It’s like taking credit for the sun rising in the east each morning.
The Big Lie method works wonders when you have a willfully ignorant, mathematically challenged, easily manipulated populace. I spent the entire Obama presidency obliterating the fake economic data perpetuated by his BLS, BEA and every other government agency trying to paint a rosy economic picture. I voted for Trump because the thought of Crooked Hillary as the president made me ill. Despite disagreeing with many of his economic, budgetary, and military policies during his first year in office, I’d vote for him again over Hillary in an instant. The thought of having that evil shrew running the country gives me chills.
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But that doesn’t mean I will stand idly by, cheerlead and ignore the facts to provide cover for Trump. I despise false narratives, whether they are spun by Democrats or Republicans. The Deep State still runs the show on a day to day basis, and it is in their best interest to mislead the public, keep them sedated, unaware of how bad things have become, and oblivious to the coming debt shitstorm destined to destroy this country. Every remedy prescribed by the Deep State players within the government, Federal Reserve, and Wall Street since 2008 not only did not cure the disease infecting this country, but exacerbated the disease and insured the inevitability of our demise.
It is particularly irritating to hear Trump and his minions bloviating about the tremendous job growth since he was elected. U.S. job growth has averaged 176,000 jobs per month over the past year. That’s down from an average of 208,000 in the prior year, and 217,000 over the prior 4 years. But why let facts get in the way of a good story. The number of new jobs being added per month is on a declining slope. We are eight years into a fake recovery built on trillions in debt, with the ensuing bubbles in the stock market, bond market and real estate market. I don’t need politicians pissing down my back and telling me its raining.
The other false narrative flogged relentlessly by politicians, Wall Street shysters, CNBC bimbos, and a myriad of highly paid MSM talking heads is the record stock market highs are a reflection of a strong robust economy. What a load of crap. The stock market went up 360% over the last nine years as real wages stagnated and even the highly manipulated GDP barely grew at a 2% rate. The Dow hit a record 26,616 on January 26, proceeded to collapse by 2,800 points in less than two weeks, and has since soared by 1,700 points in the next two weeks. None of these moves had anything to do with the economy, corporate earnings or cash on the sidelines.
The stock market bubble has been driven solely by the Federal Reserve providing free money to Wall Street, with a guaranteed put by Bernanke and then Yellen. QE, ZIRP, and an unspoken agreement between the central bankers at the Fed, ECB, Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank to buy stocks has effectively elevated stocks around the world to absurd valuations. These highly educated intellectual-yet-idiots now cannot unwind their debt house of cards without blowing up the world financial system. With total public and private U.S. debt of $67 trillion and over $200 trillion of unfunded liabilities, this powder keg of debt awaits the inevitable spark.
The Fed announced the unwinding of their $4.4 trillion balance sheet of dodgy mortgages, treasuries, and other Wall Street created dreck, many months ago. They had been all talk until the last week of January when they reduced their balance sheet by a measly .5%. Do you think it was just a coincidence the stock market imploded by 10% in an instant? Shockingly, the Fed increased their balance sheet by $15 billion over the next two weeks and the stock market rebounded dramatically. Weakening the dollar at the same time didn’t hurt either.
The other excuse for the stock market correction was the CPI hysterically coming in too high at 2.1% and resulting in the 10 year Treasury surpassing 2.9%. It is hysterical the government expects the plebs to believe health care costs are only rising by 2%, auto prices are falling, food prices are increasing less than 2%, and shelter expenses are only rising by 3%. Anyone living in the real world knows their living expenses are rising at an above 5% clip, while their wages are barely growing. It is absolutely essential for the Deep State to disguise the true level of inflation or panic and retribution would ensue.
Proof the fake employment numbers are nothing but a propaganda ruse can be seen in the real average hourly earnings chart. Real earnings have not budged in over two years when the economy was supposedly adding 200,000 jobs per month. And this is using the patently false CPI as the measure of inflation. In reality, real wages have been in steady decline since 1999. If millions of jobs have been added over the last two years, they must be the shittiest paying jobs possible to not budge wages up one iota. Fries with that Coke?
This is exactly what the Deep State controllers want. They don’t want real wages for real people in the real world to go up. The true purpose of the actions taken since 2008 has been to enrich Wall Street while impoverishing Main Street. Mission accomplished. Record corporate profits and stock market gains have not “trickled down” to the plebs. The over-class has reaped all the benefits. If they allowed real wages to increase by more than 2%, their low interest rate scheme would become untenable. Look what has happened when 10 Year Treasuries approached 3% – financial panic.
A critical thinking individual might ponder why a 3% interest rate would be fatal to the US economy if we truly have 4% unemployment, GDP is really growing at 3%, and consumer confidence is at all-time highs. In 2007 the 10 Year Treasury was 5% and savers could get a 5% in a money market account. Today, with the 10 Year around 2.85%, the average money market pays .12%. The Too Big To Trust Wall Street cabal reaped all the ZIRP benefits and continue to screw the little guy. While they borrowed from the Fed for free, they continued to charge 15% or higher on their credit cards to the ignorant indebted masses.
Let’s face the facts. Your overlords have doubled down on debt to keep this crumbling empire alive, so their looting and pillaging operation could continue. The fractional decline in debt during the 2008/2009 Fed created financial crisis virtually destroyed the global financial system. The solution to this debt problem has been to add tens of trillions in debt while artificially suppressing interest rates by rigging markets. The U.S. alone has added $13 trillion of debt since 2009 – a 25% increase in eight years. The corporate media and Wall Street cheer, as consumer debt surpassed its previous high and stands at over $13 trillion, with revolving credit card debt soaring.
With only 4% unemployment and nothing but rosy economic indicators for as far as the eye can see, one might ask why revolving credit card debt is at all-time highs and the personal savings rate is at all-time lows. Are these two indicators a positive economic sign or a sign of desperation for the average working class family? If the bottom 80% have not had any real wage gains in over a decade, are paying through the nose for healthcare, rent, education, energy, and food, maybe their only choice is depleting their savings and surviving on their credit cards. Does that sound like a Goldilocks scenario for Main Street?
Do you remember the strident mainstream media narrative about the best holiday retail season in years? It seems the Big Lie narrative has been revealed to be false by actual data. Retail sales were flat in December and down substantially in January. The trend is down. Retail sales in the discretionary categories are negative. But at least gasoline sales are robust, due to soaring prices. The debt based auto sale (rental) scheme is unraveling as defaults soar among the millions of subprime borrowers comes home to roost. The average family is barely scrapping by and retail sales will continue to stagnate, while thousands more retail stores are shuttered. Ghost Malls R Us.
The precarious fragile nature of our entire debt dependent financial house of cards has been revealed by the reaction of the housing market to the slightest blip up in mortgage rates over the last two months. A lousy 37 basis point increase in mortgage rates resulted in mortgage applications plunging. And we all know what happened next.
Existing and new home sales both collapsed in a heap. We have home prices at all-time highs, exceeding 2005 bubble highs. We have heavily indebted millennials working shit service jobs who will never be able to afford to buy. We have a new tax law that no longer rewards home ownership. And now we have rising mortgage rates. Get ready for housing collapse part deux. Home prices are poised to fall by at least 30%, again. Thank you sir may I have another. I wonder how much of the $8.9 trillion of mortgage debt will be written off this time and passed to the taxpayers.
The Deep State overlords and their lackeys at the Federal Reserve hit the panic button after the 10% correction two weeks ago. The Fed increased their balance sheet, they’ve managed to push rates back below 2.85%, and they have drastically weakened the dollar to support their Wall Street masters. They can’t keep this up for long. The Fed committed to drastically reducing their balance sheet and weakening the dollar has had zero impact on our worsening trade deficit. Bug is approaching windshield.
Those controlling the strings behind the scenes might believe their brilliant maneuvering, devious schemes, and potent propaganda have successfully navigated the rock shoals of looming financial disaster, but their hubris will end up sinking the ship in the end. Any success they attribute to their intellectual capabilities can also be attributed to just plain dumb luck. The lethargic, plodding, boring economic recovery has been just right for Wall Street and the political class. Not too hot and not too cold. Just right to keep interest rates at emergency level lows while not resulting in workers actually getting wage increases which would create inflation.
It’s truly been a Goldilocks recovery for the stock owning .1%. But, as Ludwig von Mises noted many decades ago, the boom cannot continue indefinitely. Valuations are stretched to the breaking point. Those in power are unwilling or unable to voluntarily renounce further credit expansion. They have laced Goldilock’s porridge with arsenic and it is just a matter of time until she’s dead. A depression is in our future, no matter what actions are taken at this point. Keep calm and prepare yourself.
“The boom cannot continue indefinitely. There are two alternatives. Either the banks continue the credit expansion without restriction and thus cause constantly mounting price increases and an ever-growing orgy of speculation – which, as in all other cases of unlimited inflation, ends in a “crack-up boom” and in a collapse of the money and credit system. Or the banks stop before this point is reached, voluntarily renounce further credit expansion, and thus bring about the crisis. The depression follows in both instances.” – Ludwig von Mises
Like I said in a previous thread. The debt is the one thing that hangs over us like a dark cloud. We can clean up political corruption, expose the media for what it is and deweaponize immigration but the debt is still there.
It would be nice if Trump would have an honest and open discussion with the public about it.
An honest discussion would require acknowledging that our money is debt and that if we pay our debt off we have no money since it no longer is in circulation as interest bearing bank notes.
Anon __ not if that honest discussion includes repealing the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 et al, passing a balanced budget amendment, and start addressing unfunded federal obligations.
Either we, as a nation, manage the crash, or the banksters will.
Work, or don’t eat, it’s a biblical principle and includes the cabal. Usury is sin, also biblical.
The sooner the collapse, the better.
I’ve advocated this for a while.
But the Federal Reserve Act doesn’t need to be repealed since it contains provision for the Government buying the Federal Reserve back and Congress has the power to issue money through the Treasury to pay for it.
That would leave Congress able to simply order the Treasury to issue as much money as it wants. Enough to easily pay off all debts, pay for as much spending as they want to spend without restraint and budget battles, give everyone a guaranteed income, and pay for importing anything and everything the consumer wants from other countries.
There’s no need for this current borrowing, just issue money s needed to pay for whatever we do.
I think that was the original EXCUSE for creating the Fed – was to reign in and restrain those money-printing politicians responding to the public whim of the moment:
Continentals. Greenbacks. Wiemar. Zimbabwe. Venezuela.
Meanwhile, behind the scenes, the approved banking gang arrogates to itself the right to lend out counterfeit “money”, charge interest for it, then quietly buy up all the world’s assets. Re-Feudalism. The enlightenment too good for the proles, so lets take a round trip back to the dark ages. Dark even if it is lit by everyone’s smartphone Black Mirrors. Ingsoc!
Looking forward, or back to history, I see no solutions.
Yes, nice but not politically expedient, particularly at this point. I’m sure Trump and his advisors know most of the stuff in this article, but why shouldn’t Trump take advantage of the lying narrative created by his predecessors? When the crooks in Congress and the lying Media are trying to impeach him, he is simply hoisting them on their own petards….They signed off on this narrative under the Gay Kenyan, now they are stuck with it…
I’m not sure Trump really cares about debt. The reason he is wealthy is because of debt and other people’s money. 15, 17 20 trillion is just a number. He assumes that the US, like himself, has no intention of paying it off. It’s the creditors problem.
And just what would he say? People are either too divided or too stupid to understand. So why bother. Things have been rolling along for a long time now, best to make the economy grow and try to control spending in a more organic fashion with monetary policy.
President Trump is still under attack by the Globalists and Leftists, and he is doing one heck of a job (compared to any other president in recent memory). And you are going to put it all on him? Where were you during the eight years of Obozo?
“President Trump is still under attack by the Globalists and Leftists, and he is doing one heck of a job (compared to any other president in recent memory). And you are going to put it all on him? Where were you during the eight years of Obozo?”
Amen.
Nice article Admin. Nice to get back to the meat and potatoes and away from the pie in the sky Q-anons
bull shitte.
Ditto. Just wish Q stuff was real, rather than an adult fairy tale like Atlas Shrugged.
Admin,
You are truly brilliant at explaining and summarizing our financial train wreck. You’ve done it over and over, and I’m sure you know you are preaching to the choir for many at TBP.
We get it, no small thanks to you, and I hope you keep it up as long as you’re able.
I’m sure this will get picked up by Zero Hedge and others, and your truths will be spread far beyond this site.
Thanks again
Ouch. That one be like…
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Has anyone seen the rest of my illusions?
I still have a Maxell tape from 1979, still working with AC/DC Back in Black recorded of a friend’s album. Lent it to my wife with my Sony Walkman for a school demonstration last year. I do take care of my old stuff. I still have many of these tapes recorded in the 70’s and early 80’s recorded directly off of albums or FM radio. Sorry I was quite a geek.
Bob.
Bob – Not to hijack admin’s thread here – but – my buddy told me two days ago: “You know, we could never afford to buy this stuff when we were younger, that’s why I’m buying it now.”
Seemed liked a good idea to me.
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I’m looking for them here in the hills. Illusions, not tape recorders.
Anytime Trump has stated something akin to the truth the media on both sides of the aisle claims its dystopian. Remember his acceptance speech after taking the oath, wow nothing like that speech. He remains a salesman and attempts to project confidence and move the mass psychology in a favorable direction. Trump wants to move the needle psychologically, because he probably has a decent idea that without some serious optimism little growth is realistic. There won’t be a renewal of closer to full employment, globalism and computer related tech have reduced the need for human inputs. That and we have far too many people that aren’t qualified to do much beyond basic labor like shoveling, but most of those folks are so fat, drugged up, and addicted to the welfare state that they couldn’t begin to shovel for more than 2 minutes to begin with. So labor saving devices have seriously wrecked the number of people needed for many jobs. My neighbor was able to use a mini-backhoe and do more work in a day than I could have imagined a team of people doing 30yrs ago. Thus the bullshit about everyone getting a degree to get educated for the “new jobs” yeah what the fuck are those? Not too many. Also not just anyone has the cognitive wiring and mentality required to do the highly skilled jobs.
Trump was best case scenario a means to try and have a softer landing down the road. But when you have hit iceburgs and those in charge seem more than fine about sucking dry what’s left on the boat until it sinks–you have a serious predicament. We don’t have problems, we have a long series of very bad choices ahead. But who knows if we the people will even have the chance to make the choices? Who is going to seriously cut Medicare/Medicaid/SS in the future? No one that wins apparently. So basically its pray for amazing growth to grow our way out of the debt. It was hard even writing that sentence since its such utter bullshit, the math won’t work. Every year that things stay above water is another year of life with those you love, some time to smell the roses. That’s at best what Trump is in my opinion, the idea that this tower of babel country that has large numbers of its folks hating eachother is going to be “great again” is a slogan only. The only question marks remain are what are they series of tipping points in this non-redudant highly coupled system that are going to knock things over. Natural disasters, endless wars, and hubris from people disconnected to the realities of scarcity look like they are built into the cake already, add some spice of racial group hating eachother more and more and outside enemies to boot. Trump tells more truth than any other President I’ve ever heard, but that doesn’t mean he still isn’t selling us alot of bullshit despite that.
Pretty good rant, my friend.
Does anyone remember Donald got rich claiming Bankruptcy is this his plan for the U.S. ?
“… media on both sides of the aisle …” couldn’t resist: 🙂
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… from 2010; homage to Quigley 1966.
Yo; I hope you are correct. Future proves the past.
Fucken BRILLIANT piece!!!
Quinn ….. speaking truth to power, and Trumpeteers!
I hear Trump-is-grrreat bubbles popping all over ‘Murica!
OTOH …… isn’t Quinn aware of what Q says???
That evil fuckers are going down, down, DOWN! 13,000,000 million indictments, baby!! All in due time, when the time is right … which it ain’t, yet. Cuz people can’t handle the truth, yet. But, when they can …. Oh, baby, America will be fucken great again!
Dammit, Jim! Get yer ass on the fucken Q train, ya piker!!
What letter of the alphabet does Quinn start with?
Well, he was a shock jock, Zara.
Where is old Finnegan these days?
Maggie- Who cares??
Well, Bea, I’m a mother.
Finnegan, at one time… had a mother.
Sons do bullshit stuff, being all guided by testosterone when rational thought and deductive reason should guide their actions.
Finnegan was an idiot who walked right into the humiliation visited upon him by throwing turdballs at Quinn without a TBP turdball license (or a clue). But, as a mother of a young man who might, at any moment, show up here and throw turdballs without realizing the room is full of MOMlike attitudes and wisdom, I can’t help but worry that Finnegan lost his little audience, bought an AK and has plans to bring the shock jock and his monkey minions down.
By the way, Stucky is still the King of the shitflingers, in case he wonders.
There will come a very interesting Rubicon moment once the dam breaks and deflationary winter befalls us all. What happens to the debt? How is it liquidated? Do we all become debt slaves including our children like post WW1 Germany trying to pay down an amount that is in fact, too gargantuan to ever pay off (Too big to flail at)? Or do we follow the Founders advise and repudiate. Tell those stupid enough to have lent that much dough to a shiftless gang of sleazeball politicians in the 1st place that they’re SOL for it? That would cause THEM to fight back like trapped rats. They’ll appeal to our sense of honor to do the ‘right’ thing and pay back what we owe-like those ‘honorable’ d.c. pricks who got us in this mess to begin with. They’ll tell us that repudiating the debt will cause the u.s. gov’t to wreck their credit worthiness for a generation-as if we the rabble should not rejoice at the prospect-a government that can’t borrow money. That’s the rebirth or die moment.
At that time I will rescind my utter contempt and scorn for the political process and fling myself whole hog and heart into the fray.
Can’t borrow enough now so it prints; it won’t go bankrupt; it will go Venezuela. The 1% Chosen Goldilocks will do fine.
Odious Debt is [ becomes ] the debt of those who had no authority to engage it in the first place.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odious_debt
Hmmm…buy more ammo ( if we aren’t disarmed soon…oh hell all the more reason) .
Prepare for the worst…hope for the best.
Any predictions on who’ll get the blame when the bubble bursts, the dam gives way and the life rafts are few ? I guess we’ll see if Trumpster can pull off the art of the deal .
Let me start with a fault I have with the first paragraph, Trump having a business friendly promise of dropping regulations, putting a knife in the heart of the climate change beast and promised tax cuts for business was a far cry from the Obama nightmare of we’ll screw you with employer healthcare payments green taxes and regulations up the wahzoo. So, yes, Trump can be responsible for short term improvement in business growth.
But yes, there is a dark 20 trillion dollar cloud hanging over our heads, but we seem to be living in a magical time when natural laws don’t seem to be absolute, as no one knows when gravity will finally bring the whole thing crashing down.
With this gloomy picture in mind, what should have Trump exposed concerning the economy during his first days as President? What if he would have commented on the reality of the economy? Would he have not looked like an idiot with the stock market jumping as high as it’s gone in the last year? Or should he have declared how terrible the economy was and be the one responsible for personally bursting the ballon and crashing the economy?
So, if you were the president, fresh of your victory and now had the opportunity to address the nation of the state of the economy, what would you have said?
I’m not the fucking president. My job is to speak the truth. You Trumpeteers seem to have a problem with facts and truth. Oh well. So it goes.
All of our jobs are to speak the truth, just trying to help you out so you don’t feel so all alone.
But it is, I think, a valid question; what truth should Trump have spoken? If you want to avoid considering the political ramifications, you are under no obligation to answer.
As to my being a Trumpeteer, after one president chases away business and the new one entices them back, it to me is obvious short term business futures will benefit; long term, who knows? That’s just the facts right there; no Trump worship.
The things I don’t like about Trump and that gave me reservations during the election were not the kinds of things that bothered the crazies on the farside, it was his moral failings; serial family abandonment, dishonesty, hanging suppliers and tradesmen out to dry because bankruptcy, shitty taste in home decor.
That every single person who frighten me more hated him with a white hot intensity were his saving graces. The enemy of my enemy and all that jazz. Maybe they were just jealous that he was gaming them on their turf, who knows.
Jim is right and has been dead on in his economic insights for a lot longer and with a great deal more intellectual consistency than any of the other guys out there and he’s right now. Maybe Trump is working on bigger issues, maybe he’s just like them, time will tell, but whenever anyone lies it sets my teeth on edge and when it comes to the mathematical realities of the financial stability of the US there’s nothing but BS as far as the eye can see.
What I must admit, after all this time, is that collective illusions are far more powerful than physical realities. What the body politic believes, is. As hard as that may be to fathom from a realist like myself, it cannot be denied. Debt, it seems, has no real effect on an economy if we ignore it. How long that can go on is anyone’s guess but it has outlived any expectation I ever had in units formerly measured by astronomers. There is an ace in the hole, however and that would be a jubilee. To whom do we owe this debt, exactly? To the Fed? To the banks and the billionaire investors, to communist regimes in Asia or drug lords in the southern hemisphere? To the hordes of indolent and useless parasites that can but won’t participate in their own lives?
What would happen if that collective illusion were to suddenly be off the table and someone with the power to do it were to say “All debts cancelled”?
Stranger things have happened.
“shitty taste in home decor”
That’s good. I might steal that one. There is plenty to not like about Trump but one thing is for certain, he was not a lifetime politician. For that he was better than anyone else that ran in the primaries – on either side.
I firmly believe in the founders that we are a representative republic governed by the people. It’s the electorates own fault that we have made a defacto monarchy out of political parties and royalty of some political families.
I get that becoming president takes national name recognition and a lot of money so that’s probably off the table for me, but being elected to congress, or even senate, should be attainable by the common everyday citizen. It should be a service to one’s community/state and not a career. Sadly it is not and that is what I believe is wrong with this country.
Trump proving an outsider can win the highest office is a step in the right direction.
One of the first articles I ever read, back when I was in my late teens/early twenties, that opened my eyes to where things were headed was called “America’s Wish for Kings”.
I’ve tried to find it but I think it is lost in the deep dark depths of the interweb. If anyone ever runs across let me know and I will post it here.
There was another good one called “Information Theory” which made the argument that any message can contain multiple messages depending on the arrangement of letters and words [ and their number equivalents ]. Gone…
Another, The Adam and Eve Story by Chan Thomas – poof…
HF, LLPOH does not repeat his code of honor mantra often enough. That has led to YoBo’s acceptance of a little fibbing as necessary to move the populace in the right direction. I absolutely hated that Eddie Murphy promoted lying as a technique and successful strategy to be used among trusting white folks.
One bad apple ruins the whole shebang, as they say. Somehow, that lesson is not taught in schools anymore. And instead of hearing (reading) LLPOH’s outrage at dishonesty, we have not silence but actual cheering at the president’s dissembling and prevarication. Nixon was ahead of his time.
That’s an interesting post, Hardscrabble. I think you are circling a larger point, close to the bullseye. What exactly is this particular debt? If the Fed and other allied central banks print money, to boost the amount in circulation, they lend it instead of giving it away so they at least get some back, and can play the game longer, okay, but where does that leave us? All those dollars are pinballing around in the economy, and creating more economic activity. Who has to be paid back? The central bank that created the money? Why? In 2008, Hank Paulson correctly identified the reason the economy jammed up. Lack of liquidity. Too few dollars in circulation to grease an expanding world economy. same reason Nixon had to close the gold window. He overestimated the amount of money it would take to get the system up and running, and then certainly deviated from the original intent. The new marching order became, liquidity trumps solvency. And we’ve been stuck in that for 8 years. Question is, will it work in the end? I’ve always had my doubts, not to the extent of some of the other people here, but doubts none the less. But those doubts are starting to dissipate. If Donald Trump can stop the bleeding of our trade deficits, the international narcotics trade, bust up some of the other mechanisms that bleed us dry, and all the excesses that have redistributed money throughout the world become secondary, then what? You certainly accurately point out some of the weak points of the man’s character. Lying to us doesn’t seem to be one of them. I would characterize it as cheerleading instead. If you have a football team that sucks, your first job is to make them believe that they can play football. Beating us up with doom and gloom certainly wouldn’t advance anything at this point. He’s the president, that’s his job. Quinn accurately states above, that’s not his job. His job is to accurately point out where we’re at. That’s what he’s best at, and that’s what has always made this site interesting. Trump looks like he has been gathering steam to upset the apple cart five different ways in 2018. It’s going to be an interesting year.
Trump has been president for a year and the trade deficit is soaring to the highest in 10 years. Do you ignore the ZH articles that don’t support your narrative?
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-27/advance-data-signals-biggest-us-trade-deficit-10-years
I don’t have a narrative, Jim. and yes, I do ignore those kind of articles. There’s nothing that Trump can do about the size of the trade deficit until some of the deals that create that deficit are modified or eliminated. I believe he’s working pretty hard on those things. The NAFTA negotiations are almost over, and it looks like tariffs are coming for the stuff at the bottom of the economy, lumber, steel, etc. There has been some chatter that the bump in the trade deficit is based on companies bringing in enormous amounts of goods to beat those tariffs. I have no idea whether that’s accurate
I really nice depression will take care of the trade deficit. Look at how it improved in 2008/2009.
I fear what is in store for this country when NAFTA is trashed. It will crash our economy even further.
We have a resource-based economy. Tariffs on lumber, oil, gas, coal etc will stimy growth in those industries even more than the current federal and provincial governments have already caused themselves. Our government will respond by placing duties on finished goods coming from the US.
Thus our goods, possibly including fuel, will become even more expensive in a declining economy.
At that stage, it would be better for us economically to join the union. But not until you fix your southern border.
I made a comment on the goldilocks post with a link to an article comparing the debt to the albatross.
Trump’s budget project trillion dollar deficits for several years.
That is the bottom line. Q or no Q.
More like Fuuuu Q.
If tweeting and stirring the pot on 8chan is gathering steam, I would expect this fat caterpillar to blast out the starting gate like Barbaro. You could argue that he won decisively but it looks like he broke a leg soon after.
https://youtu.be/FZo9w0Avjnk
Lee Chen
The trade deficit is soaring, that’s winning, no?
“someone with the power to do it”…
To the victor goes the spoils of war. That includes the “power to do it.” Look at what the Fuckers did to the Germans at Versailles.
When all else fails, and we’re deep in the shiter, there’s sure to be a Hitler wannabe.
Which may not be a bad thing.
Stucky needs a hug !
Yumbo ,you walked into that one .
Admin,a good clear piece of writing.I hope it gets picked up on other websites.
You guys remember we are all friends here and when this Economy goes into the “Greater Depression ” we are all probably going to need each other one way or another . I’ve already started looking up old friends from high school. So far everyone is glad I called or looked them up.Made my day.
Beebs & Jim…off topic, but what the hell? Why not?
A buddy turned me on to this tune last week.
After a short break from replaying John Coster’s “Lost Horizon” about 24 times,
I now keep replaying this one.
“Wheels” by Steve Moakler, who I’d not heard of before.
‘Tis a good one, IMHO.
One of the things that disturbs me is that ‘economists’ try to measure things that can’t really be measured in real time. Compare them to meteorologists who actually do have real time data yet cannot, with any certainty, predict where a hurricane will be in 3 days. They use a forecast ‘cone’ to show the storms likely path with the degree of accuracy decreasing with time.
Then there are political pollsters. They use the same advanced statistical techniques as economists yet none of them would try and predict the outcome of an election that was 3 months or 6 months in the future based on their current data. Too many things could happen between now and then.
The same problem exists with economic forecasts. The only thing we can accurately measure is debt and it is not part of a dynamic process like employment, inflation or stock indexes. It is immutable. It either gets paid or it doesn’t and the more of it you have the harder it is to pay.
This is from a Trump interview on Fox in 2014…for some reason it has a 2018 date on the link.
According to Trump (in 2014) we are fast approaching a Greek like downgrade.
The second half of the article is a commercial.
https://www.newsmax.com/finance/Outbrain/Trump-Aftershock-American-Economy/2012/11/06/id/462985/
BILLIONAIRE TELLS AMERICANS TO PREPARE FOR ‘FINANCIAL RUINE’
The United States could soon become a large-scale Spain or Greece, teetering on the edge of financial ruin.
That’s according to Donald Trump, who painted a very ugly picture of where this country is headed. Trump made the comments during a recent appearance on Fox News’ “On the Record with Greta Van Susteren.”
According to Trump, the United States is no longer a rich country. “When you’re not rich, you have to go out and borrow money. We’re borrowing from the Chinese and others. We’re up to $16 trillion in debt.”
He goes on to point out that the downgrade of U.S. debt is inevitable.
“We are going up to $16 trillion [in debt] very soon, and it’s going to be a lot higher than that before he gets finished. When you have [debt] in the $21-$22 trillion, you are talking about a downgrade no matter how you cut it.”
Ballooning debt and a credit downgrade aren’t Trump’s only worries for this country. He says that the official unemployment rate “isn’t a real number” and that the real figure is closer to 15 percent to 16 percent. He even mentioned that some believe the unemployment rate to be as high as 21 percent.
“Right now, frankly, the country isn’t doing well,” Trump added, “Recession may be a nice word.”
End of Trump quotes
Trump knows what is coming…what we don’t know is what his plan B is? Plan C? I just can’t see him waiting for “them” to play pin the tail on the Orange Republican Donkey?
“Every major stock market decline and every recession in the last 100 years was preceded by the Federal Reserve raising short-term interest rates by enough to provide the pin to prick the balloon.”
Bill Bonner (In his column today)
So the FED Gangster Banksters hold the pin and are jabbing…
The 666 trillion dollar…4th Turning question…after the POP what does Trump do?
I can’t see it not happening before 2020…but then again I didn’t think it could last this long.
Trump understands debt very well.. how to get out from under it on a personal level, anyway. Remains to be seen if he has a trick up his sleeve in regards to the US.
So the national debt exploded by over a trillion in 6 months, and with much more funding requirements to come, both by the gubmint and the Fed, who are supposedly rolling off bonds from their balance sheet, one might wonder where all the money is coming from. Certainly not savings as Admin’s chart shows that it has collapsed.
Maybe da boyz will sell their stock holdings and jump back into bonds with all the dough they made. Now that would make for a shit show. Or how about all those foreigners paying the freight. They might change their minds after all the selling they’ve been doing, but not likely.
If they let rates escalate sufficiently, they’ll be successful in funding their debts – but just imagine the amount of heavy lifting that will be required to hold up all those other inflated markets, not least stocks. The S&P is only yielding 1.8 %. A 10 year looks mighty appealing at 2.9 % let alone 3.5 or 4.
Naw – they’re fucked. If the markets continue to force rates upward, the Fed will be forced to print like crazy, which will flush the dollar down the shit hole while they’re at it. There is no way to unwind all these bubbles by withdrawing money and credit from the market, without a major debt deflation. That is why they won’t and the dollar be damned.
Although I believe we are witnessing a crack up boom in financial assets, when this final money printing phase and dramatically weakening dollar happens, inflation in the real economy will take off even more, much like the 70’s, or worse.
Like Ron Paul, you are ignoring the parasites causing this problem. The Banksters are causing the debt. They are preventing anyone getting out. Citizen Trump is a debt slave himself. Everything he has is leveraged. They do not have to buy him, they already own him.
There is no soft landing here. The Banksters expect a Golden Parachute and plan to crash this plane into the ground. War is inevitable now. That “black panther” movie is obviously an attempt at violence to cover a complete collapse.
The economy is dead already. No business is actually being done. The profits are all fake. There hasn’t been any Green Christmas for retail in a decade. Its all bogus and bunko. Just a tiny rise in interest and this debt pile will fall down on the Banksters and Wall Street. The parasite is living on BORROWED TIME. LITERALLY.
Trump is shopping for a War. He needs to send some gun toting Americans away fast or his parasite pals and in-laws may get paid off in LEAD.
The one thing you are overlooking is the reduction in regulations in the last year. Optimism is returning and the animal spirits are letting loose. You and I are old enough to remember the Reagan years when 16% interest rates and 7% unemployment were the norm. Optimism, tax cuts, and a regulation pause by the Gipper and a monetary squeeze by Paul Volker resulted in the largest expansion in our lifetimes. Same thing could be happening now. Of course our current president is no fiscal conservative, but then again Ronny yielded to political necessity as well. As for our astronomical debt I will paraphrase George Costanza. “A debt is not a debt, if you have no intention of paying it back.”
Skinny,
Bought my 2nd house in West Texas in 85 at almost 13% interest (FHA)…God Bless Ronald Reagan and Paul Volker. I too (and history) credit them with laying the foundation for the opportunities I had the next 15 years to make it economically and live the dream.
Mr. Read My Lips and Slick Willie couldn’t tie Reagan’s and Volker’s shoes on their best days.
It happened really quick, too. 79-80-81, it was tough to make money. It got a whole lot easier in 1982, and then just took off. Reagan didn’t have as many people fighting him as Trump does though, and the ones fighting him were not as well financed.
Carter started in 1977 when mortgage rates were 9%, he left 4 years later in 1981 at 16%. They were 10% in 1989 when Reagan left after 8 years.
RHS, I bought my first house in 89, 30-year fixed was 6%
No you didn’t. I bought in 1989 too. My rate was 9.8%. Why do you feel the need to lie?
They saw you coming. Of course I did. That was my first house. I brought 19 to the closing, borrowed 80, and made that payment for 10 years, $518., no escrow. the lender was Savings of America
You did not get a 6% 30 year mortgage in 1989. You are either lying or having a brain fart.
Here are the facts big guy. They ranged between 10.8% and 9.8% in 1989.
http://www.fedprimerate.com/mortgage_rates.htm
Well fuck me. You got me again. All of you people who want to do battle with this guy, let me give you a piece of advice. Don’t ever argue with a world champion bean counter, on any subject that involves counting the beans. You will get crushed. Here are the actual facts. Everything I said is accurate except for one (tiny, tiny) thing. The loan was not fixed. It was adjustable. The first few payments were higher, and then the rate dropped considerably and $518. was the floor. Rates stayed down, and I ended up being much better off having gotten that adjustable. I think there was some incentives to take the adjustable instead of fixed. I don’t remember how that decision was made. There was no bargaining for anything on my part, I was just glad they were going to give me the mortgage. I would have signed anything they put in front of me
An adjustable was a smart move, because rates continued to fall. I would have believed you if I hadn’t gotten my first 30 year mortgage in the same year.
Well I don’t think there was any smarts to it. Getting your first mortgage back then was a tough thing to do. You had to have a down payment of 20%, income and credit. Like I said, I would have signed anything they put in front of me.
I was just thrilled that they were giving me the money. That $518. payment stayed pretty consistent for the whole time I had that house. The mortgage must have had some sort of clause where the payment couldn’t go down under a certain amount. That’s probably where the 6% number I remember came from. I got used to seeing it on the statement. I’m remembering more of this as I think about it. I think they changed the rate once a year, and it went down after the first year and never went back up. I might have had a teaser rate the first year, they had to have incentivised the adjustable rate somehow, or I wouldn’t have taken it. It did work out very well, but it could have gone the other way just as easily. Sometimes you win.
My husband and I bought our home in OKC in 1992, delighted to lock in 8.5%
Thanks Admin
Will make this a succinct comment.
Debt is bad.
Welfare is probably even worse. (Pick your personal favorite poison.)
Welfare funded by debt is the most horrific and destructive of all. It kills everything it touches: family, thrift, saving, investment, education, work ethic, growth, self-reliance, personal responsibility, community, culture, etc. ad nauseum.
LLPOH…you damn right the lazy parasites feeding off the gooberment teat are a pox on this country . There are those who need the help because they are truly disabled etc but that is probably 10% of the 40+ million suckers.
Mark….read ” Secrets Of The Temple ” …even Volker couldn’t figure out why people were still borrowing when interest rates were rising .
Buckhead,
I’ll do it!
https://www.amazon.com/Secrets-Temple-Federal-Reserve-Country/product-reviews/0671675567/ref=cm_cr_dp_d_show_all_btm?ie=UTF8&reviewerType=all_reviews
But, I don’t need any more gasoline on the raging fire of my hatred for the Bankers!
Banana cream pie. The pie plate, with one remaining piece was sitting on the top shelf in the refrigerator. Beside that lonely slice stood a large glass measuring cup heaped with left-over real whipped cream. There’s fresh-ground coffee finishing into the pot. I read Admin’s article, my mind wanders back to the pie. The pie was made for her yesterday’s company, and no one claimed that last piece. My honey bakes some, but banana cream pie, not so much. I’ll share the last piece, I offered. She tells me to finish it, that it doesn’t get any better with age. Me and the pie, we are one, become one. The whipped cream is enough for three of me and I spoon it on the top of both pie and coffee. I add more and find the perfect combination of crust and cream and pie. Thankfully my Hon is in the next room and she can’t hear the noises I’m making as I eat. Not pie, or cream, not coffee or me; none of us gets better with age. What say you Admin, will you admit I have found the cure for the gloom? Cream whipped mercilessly with sugar and vanilla. Crust, flaky, shortening and white flour, fuck you Denninger. Sumatra strong and hot. Live long and prosper Admin. Live long and prosper.
Single malt. Sunset over the hills. Wildlife around. Family. No other humans in sight or earshot. Repeat daily. Peace in the valley.
That’s it.
Yesterday we were out most of the day tapping the maples. You drill,the hole, wait for the first few drops to clear out the shavings and put in the tap- bock-bock-bock- with the hammer, then hang the sap bucket. Within seconds there is the sound of the drops falling one, by one into the bottom of the pail, this sweet, discordant symphony of water on metal all around you in the clean air.
We work together, the sun shines, you gather what nature provides and with your skills and time you transform it into a marketable asset that the government can extort to pay their endless stream of promises to deadbeats or wealthy investors.
That’s how economies work.
You workin fo the man, my man. https://youtu.be/FA3Royf9_zM
Lee Chen
Riceboy…
It was a beautiful summer evening
The sun was just over the horizon
An array of rainbow colored streaks of light
Were dancing,
In my car, wrapped inside
Leather, plastic, steel and glass
You were quiet as we listened
To a song on the radio
It was a song we’d never heard before
We didn’t know it then
We’d never hear it again
Leave the sugar out and you have the perfect healthy snack. Fruit and cream.
I first read this site some years ago when Ol’ Remus linked to it. I thought: “Holy shit! This guy just fucking ‘brings it’ by ripping the curtain back and knocking over the potemkin facades”. It has been a continuing education ever since. A sincere thanks for the enlightenment.
One small criticism: You neglected to mention that evil son-of-bitch, Alan Greenspan. He was the captain who turned the ship towards the iceberg, yet that fucker gets to slink off into a cushy retirement when he actually deserves to be stripped naked, whipped, and crucified.
The last Jew they did that to started a whole new religion.
Lee Chen
Actually, He restored [ and fulfilled ] a much older order.
And Greenspan/s bitchwife Andrea. Don’t forget her role as a MSM whore.
https://hitberry.com/andrea-mitchell-and-husband-alan-greenspan-getting-a-divorce-because-mitchell-wants-children/
EC
I don’t recall revealing my birthday. But, obviously, I did. And I am amazed you remembered it. Thank you, Amigo!!!
Now, I bring this up for only one reason; to make others feel bad!! Haha, just kidding. My dad recently (Sept. 19} had his 93rd birthday. It is very likely he won’t see another one.
Just got back from the hospital. Talked with the doctor this time. Here is the pertinent part.
Doctor: “We were able to get the water out of his lungs and legs. We’ll probably release him tomorrow. We will give him medicines to keep the water at bay and stabilize his heartbeat.”
Me: “So, he’s out of the woods?”
Doc: “Not really. He has a very weak heart.”
Me: “How weak?”
Doc: “His heart is pumping at 25% capacity.”
Me: “Oh, God. So are you telling me to enjoy him as much as we can, because his heart won’t last much longer??”
Doc: “Yes, that would be a good idea.”
Dad was asleep when the doc told this to us. I don’t think he knows. Even if they did tell him, I doubt it registered, he’s so out of it.
When the doc left, I pulled up a chair next to his bed, put my hand on his head, watched his labored breathing, had thoughts of him as a vigorous young man standing on tall ladders painting houses to support his family …. and I cried bitterly for several minutes.
I’m better now, don’t worry.
I actually think it’s a good thing … to know the end is near, don’t you? I mean, how many people get that opportunity? I went home, told Mom the news, and literally begged mom that the two of them make the next few months the happiest they ever had (because they fight a LOT … as in almost every day).
Don’t think this little tale of mine has a happy ending. It doesn’t.
Mom said 5 words that left me stunned. I will never forget them as long as I live. She said, “It’s too late for that.” And, she meant it.
My parents have many good qualities. They are also fucken nut jobs!!! I don’t know how I will cope with all the sad shit coming down the pike. Not very well, I imagine. Not very well at all. I hope I can just survive.
I’m thinking of going to live with them … from when they wake until they go to bed. Coming back to the mansion just to sleep. Wonder if Ms Freud will be OK with that. They don’t have internet, so I’ll look into getting it …. so I can continue posting my shit on TBP, which is kind of my lifeline to sanity. I don’t know if that’s good … or, pathetic! Lol
Sorry to hijack this thread. Thanks for letting me ramble. It helps ….
I’m sorry for your troubles. Release and relax. Breathe.
EC keeps files on everyone who posts here. Everything gets noted. A very sad part of the ‘collapse’ we are experiencing is that there will be creatures like him with nothing better to do.
I am Mexican, we remember stuff. We didn’t have jr. Polaroids and man from UNCLE tape recorders, we had to file stuff away in our head; spelling words, multiplication tables, top 40 hits, who we wanted to beat up one day, etc.
One columnist described Elroy Bode’s method as taking a flashlight down memory row. I don’t even have the benefit of a flashlight, I’m more of an idiot savant who can access some memory with no explanation of how I do it.
I’ve heard of folks who have a ‘photographic memory’ – it ain’t me. I just have a lot of room for stuff since I hardly learned anything in school.
Lee Chen
Oh, and Rdawg? Keeping files on people is illegal if you don’t publicize that fact, which you did. Good boy.
Is Rdawg back? I haven’t seen him since the massive beatdown Un gave him on Indentured’s ultimate goal of Q and potus thread.
That was fucking hilarious! Thank you I would have missed it.
Lil bow wow the fascist bully of eccentric women most certainly needs to get her cooter checked by the doc- its always “that time of the month”
Epic. Poor Rdawg.
For a excellent rock version type in YouTube’s search bar “Cannon Rock-Jerry C cover by Laura”. Your welcome.
Sorry, Stuck. Hope is never wasted. Hang on to it. You just never know. One day at a time.
Stucky- I’m sure the Good Lord will give you the strength to handle the things you need to endure, we are always here for you. BL
I was sad I had no shoes until I met a man…
Whatever else you say about your dad(and mom) he was there. You watched him and probably learned a lot from him. The fact you cried over his imminent passing says a lot man.
I offer my heart felt condolences.
Stuck, my mom said her oldest brother was in the hospital for a while. Now that he’s back home, she said that he said his legs were swelling up. I told her it is probably heart failure. She agreed and said that his breathing is labored and his voice sounds strange.
I called her this weekend and she said he is doing better but he is peeing a lot. I said they probably gave him water pills to drain the fluid from his legs and lungs. (Thanks to your info.)
The prognosis for heart failure is bleak, 1 to 5 years. I didn’t tell her that. My uncle will turn 92 next month. My grandparents lived to 99 and 100. My grandpa used to tell the story of an old man (his grandpa) who left furrows in the dirt where he walked; my grandpa said the old man would pray, lord I only ask to live until I die.
Lee Chen
Stuck, 2 points: one of the gals took her parents in, she said it was like having 2 kids in the house.
My ex-in-laws didn’t fight a lot but, like in I-S’ case, the old lady was abusive. I don’t know how a mild housewife turned into a veritable virago in her old age but she did.
Stucky, my parents were not happy either. I still miss them every day.
My husbands parents have a terrible marriage. He is waiting to die and she will probably be happy when he does.
It’s very sad.
The only thing I can do is learn from their mistakes and do whatever it takes keep my marriage happy.
Gotta go or my I will have an unhappy partner.
I remember a news article I read long ago that caused me to burst out laughing in my office. When I explained why I was laughing, the other people in my 4-worker cubicle not only did not laugh, they got really upset with me for thinking it funny.
Nutshell? 90-something year old man shoots his wife, calls the cops and when they got there tells them “I’ve been asking her to stop talking for almost 70 years.”
That you do the right thing is all that matters.
Thinking good thoughts for you.
Stucky
I have been where you are twice, watching as a loved one’s heart slowly faded away. You can be a great comfort to your dad. If he has the strength, encourage him to reminisce. Recall with him good and hard times you went through together. Ask him questions about long ago. Bring up funny things.
You will never regret spending lots of time with your dad (and your mom) right now, even if all you offer is your quiet presence. Maybe you will even be an agent of peace for the bickering.
Anyway, small words for big problems. Happy birthday too.
I have hours of taped conversations with Nick, myself and his father discussion the many photos of family gathering in albums kept by he and his wife for 65 years of marriage and family after marrying at 20.
Nick and I listen and revise it into stories we will tell our own son someday.
Maggie, did you email me? I’m not going to look if you haven’t because then I have to face about 8,000 emails. Whenever I log in to my email, I try to delete a few but who’s got time for click, select trashcan, click or click, click, click, trashcan, click…Maybe deleting the whole account and getting a new one would be faster but whose got time for that?
Whenever any bank or agency tries to get me to download an app, I’m outta there. An app to order pizza? Fuckoff! I got along fine for 6 decades without downloading a damn app. Besides, I don’t have a smartphone so apps are redundant, I would never use them.
I do not have your email addy. Admin doesn’t share those unless specific arrangements are made. I have an email on gmail… set it up several months ago and I just opened it and have 107 email messages, most from Google.
[email protected]
If this is regarding the river stories, here’s how MINE starts.
[I would never have found the body if it hadn’t been for BB, but that mutt just wouldn’t quit when he was on the hunt, even if it killed him. Which it did eventually, but that’s another story. This is the one about river crossings and a dead girl named Liberty.]
I’ll open that email later today and if I have more than 107 emails, I’ll see if you sent one. If I have more than a thousand, I won’t bother.
That’s terrible, I already look forward to not reading it or skipping it entirely.
We may end up waiting by the email box forever.
“addy”
Again????
How fucken hard is it to type ADDRESS!!!?
Goddammit, you’re untrainable.
Am thinking of you, Stucky, as I organize my own photos and memories from those very difficult days caring for the elderly.
Stucky,
Many of us have already been through it with both parents. The times get easier when it’s all over with. It’s then comforting to know that they are no longer suffering and that they are in a far, far better place than where you (or any of us here) are.
Couple ways to think about the challenge you’re going through.
Take solace in that others have gone down similar paths, but you know that.
It’s not easy, witnessing a parent’s slow demise due to health challenges.
This difficulty too, shall pass.
Mine was a great lady who taught her kids much. To see her lose her wits to Alzy’s was tough.
She didn’t even know who I was, as she drifted toward the sunset of her life.
If your Pop is still sharp mentally, but the body is withering, then at least he will appreciate you being there during his struggles. 93 years is a helluva run. Earned the right to rest peacefully, when it’s time.
We all want to help some way, because it becomes a quality of life issue, wanting to relieve them of any pain and suffering, but it’s some other authority who decides what eventually will happen and when.
Trust that there’s a reason, regardless of the duration. Our own crosses to bear, so to speak.
Yes, dedicate and enjoy as much time with him and her as humanly possible while you can.
I’ll leave you with an entry dated January 26th, from a favorite daily devotional.
(So, if you want to skip some words for believers, read no further)
“Give up the illusion that you deserve a problem free life. Part of you is still hungering for the resolution of all difficulties. This is a false hope. As I told My disciples, in the world you will have trouble.
Link your hope not to problem solving in this life but to the promise of an eternity of problem-free life in the next realm.
Instead of seeking perfection in this fallen world, pour your energy into seeking Me: the Perfect One.”
“It is possible to enjoy Me and glorify Me in the midst of adverse circumstances. In fact, My Light shines most brightly through believers who trust Me in the dark. That kind of trust is supernatural:
A product of My indwelling Spirit. When things seem all wrong, trust Me anyway. I am much less interested in right circumstances than in right responses to whatever comes your way.”
In the final comment here, enjoy your birthday, and all the best on your situation with your folks.
“In a room where people unanimously maintain a conspiracy of silence, one word of truth sounds like a pistol shot.”
Czesław Miłosz
“Truth is treason in an empire of lies”
Ron Paul
Another helping of reality Mr. Admin.
I guess Trump now flaunting the low unemployment numbers, whereas during the campaign, he called them for the fraud they are, is a big disappointment. Really bad signal. More 3D chess? Same with the stock market, he owns whatever is going to happen.
I fucking give up. Really. I buy as much silver as possible, what the hell else, at my age am I going to buy besides more ammo?
I like the way you think – more silver and ammo. Yeah:)
They will ask: “What were they thinking?”
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Admin.
Great article. It made Lew Rockwell this morning. I’ll post it tonight. I would think it will make ZH soon. Just keep calling them as you see them. There’s a demand for the truth out there.
Great analysis, Admin! Your post has legs and will go far and wide.
One of the few things I’ve learned over the past 67 years is that everything and I mean EVERYTHING is based on confidence whether its economics or politics or love or religion or whatever. Ultimately, modern civilization is a con job.
Everything is fake. Inflation statistics are fake, the GDP is fake, unemployment numbers are fake; everything is fake. The fakery works as long as we pretend to believe. Fuck Sunday school morality. Once we admit the emperor has no clothes, the con is exposed, everything collapses and it will get very ugly even for the 0.1% but more so for everyone else and especially for the poorest among us.
Years ago, Satyajit Das said they cannot stop the collapse; all they can do is try to engineer a soft landing. That’s what Trump is doing. Will our world end with a bang or a whimper? So far we’ve been whimpering since the Great Financial Crisis and there’s no end in sight. There’s no fixing this so let’s hope the whimpering continues and we avoid the ‘bang’ because that gives us time to get our affairs in order, prepare for the continuing decline of our standard of living and enjoy life while we can because nobody leaves alive.
It’s said that every century or so, money returns to its rightful owners. Amerika had a great run only because it emerged from the Great War (Part 1 & 2) relatively unscathed and lorded it over everyone else. But, nothing lasts forever. Reversion to the mean is a bitch. Get used to it. Stop hoping and start planning.
Thanks for the reality check Admin. Living in a fantasy land may help some cope, I prefer to see the real numbers and stats which you do so well. Could you provide reality injections more often?
Thank you for such article and work that you put in it. I agree with everything you say. I believe that your audience may be interested in my work as well. I am the author of Hanomy Manifesto which can be downloaded at no cost at Hanomy.com This is my project and I have no affiliation with any groups. Hanomy is a new social, financial, and political system for the entire world. Numbers work and it needs the mass to demand it. It can be implemented in just a few short years. 2nd edition and FAQs are coming in few weeks. I invite all to review … in hope that you could help me spread the words. With luck, it will get to the right eyes and ears to make it a reality. I have no budget to promote this. Hanomy offers solutions to many problems we are facing today and soon to be coming (AI). Thank you for your time. Highlights of Hanomy:
• Fundamental human needs met throughout life’s existence
• Basic human rights observed everywhere
• Sovereign debts worldwide are settled and eliminated
• Upheld liberty and freedom
• Financial contributions drawn from a portion of idle/unutilized money
• No taxes on income, profit or spending
• Interest charges and usury practices abolished
• Power of money creation where it belongs – the people
• An end to the fractional reserve system
• Upheld free market principles (true capitalism but with social responsibility)
• Decreased or dissolved inflation and hyperinflation
• Reduced income inequality
• An end to corporate welfare
• Advanced technology benefiting humanity
• Freedom of time for quality of life and caregiving
• Prohibited conditions for authoritarianism
• Preserved sovereignty and respected borders
• An end to “modern day slavery” (this includes you)
• Improved care of the environment and world resources
• A world we’re proud to claim and pass along
BAD LINK
I don’t think the people in the government buy food. I used to buy 2 lb. brick of Velveeta Cheese for $3.50. Now its $7.49. The only time I buy beef is when they put hamburger on sale. Forget about buying steaks and roasts. Admin. you mention “Ghost Malls R Us”. A excellent YouTube channel that has chronicled the demise of shopping malls is “Retail Archaeology” if you would be interested in checking it out.
Mustang – I hate to break it to you, but Velveeta is a huge bargain. A two pound brick will have around 2.5 gallons of milk in it. Cows have been bred, raised, milked. Milk has been processed and dehydrated. Velveeta has been created by some magical process I know not. It has been packaged by expensive equipment. Cardboard has been made and aluminum wrap created. It has been boxed and shipped to your local store, unpacked and stocked. You came along, plucked it and someone processed the payment. Hopefully everyone laong the line turned a profit, but I doubt it.
You got all that (2.5 gallons of milk, for heaven’s sake!) all for $7.49.
That is about the best damn deal I have heard of in a while. 2.5 gallons of milk turned into cheese just for you for $7.49.
I would not even think about making Velveeta for a living. Quit bitching, and get with reality. Stuff does not appear magically. Farmers, manufacturers, distributors, sales organizations all work hard to deliver you that cheese. If you think it is so easy, or that you can do it cheaper, have at it. Start with raising the cows. Good luck with that.
And, if you add a tablespoon of good vinegar (with the mother) to each quart, you can process it and safely heat seal it in a cool dark area out of the light safely for five years!
Yes, I know Velveeta is full of crap, but I figure if TEOTWAWKI hits, a little Velveeta will help flavor a lot of things that are healthy but could use a little bit of CHEESE.
Privately owned central banks . Go figure
Great job admin
Thanks Admin. I am disappointed that Trump has chosen the path of dishonesty regarding the issues you address. I don’t understand it all, but I do grasp that it will end in disaster. All that’s left is to prepare, wait, and try to live each day to the fullest in the meantime. It feels like we’ve been in this holding-our-breath pattern for a long time, but the Turning is starting to spin. Maybe not much longer to go.
Trump offers something Obama never did. he is an optimist or comes across as one. obama was weak and a real downer. I think the market is about people how much better people are feeling. Even if its all bullshit.
I watched a video about Trump resetting the economy by going to Gold.Set at 10,000 an oz. And getting leaders all over the world to do the same. The video even talked about past resets. Maybe Trump pulling a trick out of his sleeve?
yahsure,
Be still my beating golden heart!
Several folk here wished me birthday greetings, and/or advice regarding dad, and hope.
Rather than continuing to hijack the thread with individual responses, please allow me to say a sincere THANK YOU to one, and all.
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Happy belated Bday, Stucky. How about these bunny spreaders for a nice visual?
Can you morans read? I said upcoming!
Maggoo did you see the rabbit with the Trump do?
I musta mist datone.
EC- Two questions, what is it with your new Chinese identity? Also, what happened to RDawg?
I broke my laptop and got behind with the goings on around here for a while until my new computer was delivered.
And while we are trying to pin down EC on the five dubyas, where, when, why, who … hell, I can’t remember the other one. Oh, yeah… WHAT THE FUCK?
Fung Ko (aka Fung Ku) says:
Yettaday mecican day. Today chinese.
Chen is not a new identity. Lee is the last name.
Rdawg and Unconfronted had a discussion about a ‘false dichotomy’
Untethered unleashed some harsh language on poor Rdawg.
I hope Uncharacteristic isn’t drinking again.
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/02.18/free.html
I won’t paste the whole thing, but it had this interesting wrapup line.
“All this reminds me of an old saying of mine: Just because they’re buying doesn’t mean they know what they’re doing.”
And, the beaner who can’t make up his own moniker will appreciate this intro…
“Money For Nothin’… And The Stocks For Free”
by Sven Henrich
“With apologies to the Dire Straights:
Now look at them yo-yo’s that’s the way you do it
You play the bull on the fin TV
That ain’t workin’ that’s the way you do it
Money for nothin’ and stocks for free”
After 9 years of artificial liquidity drenching markets the same game continues in 2018: It’s raining money. Again. Still.
Sven should chat with us here.
I hadda put something here to divide the previous silly banter to Anonymistery from my more serious, thoughtful comments below.
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Albatrosses and Eagles
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[“Borrowing” from the article rather than paste it… the link is at the bottom of the page. By the way, Goldilocks is on Silver Bear Cafe, in the Private Fine Dining room. My comments will be in brackets.]
Simply put, it now appears that the price pendulum had swung just as far downward in 2015 as it had swung upward in 2011. Thus it could also be said that if gold was overvalued in 2011, it was equally undervalued in 2015.
So, now the question becomes: where does price go from here? In the months ahead, will price at least move back to the apparent median line of the accumulated U.S. debt? If so, that would imply something back around $1,800 or $1,900. Could it move to another bullish extreme, as in 2010-2011? Another financial crisis could cause such a run, and that would imply something closer to $2,500.
What we know for certain is that the total level of accumulated U.S. debt isn’t going to be slowing anytime soon. Two weeks ago, President Trump released his first budget plan, and it projected $1T+ deficits through 2022, with total debt rising to a minimum of $25T over that same period.
[That is 25 Trillion dollars PROJECTED with the first Trump budget. When is the last time our government stayed under or at projections when it comes to the budget?]
[Listen, Q or no Clue, this chart should scare the hell out of any single one of us, if we were collectively in our right minds. But, thanks to a lame stream media in bed with a corrupt government controlling an increasingly narcissistic populace, the bankers sing a fiat lullaby while the lawyers destroy our rights. And both steal us blind, using the produce of our labor to enrich themselves and giving us neither interest (bankers) nor justice (lawyers).]
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http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/03.18/debt.html
[The article is more focused on precious metals, so I borrowed only the two charts relevant to the debt. The blurb below comes from another article there today, for which I will also provide a link. The chart from that article “Albatross of Debt” is equally fucking scary.]
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Needless to say, this chart makes all the difference in the world for the impending era of interest rate normalization and quantitative tightening (QT). It is one thing to permit interest rates to rise by 200-300 basis points in a context when the economy is carrying $30 trillion of debt; it’s an altogether different kettle of fish, of course, when the burden is $67 trillion.
In short, recency bias is going to prove to be the Achilles heel of the now ending era of Bubble Finance. The US economy has been borrowing and printing money so long that its position on the economic and financial map has been lost sight of—meaning that the impact of the coming epochal reversal at the central bank is not even remotely appreciated.
Take the matter of the Fed’s balance sheet. Even had the US followed Milton Friedman’s fixed money growth rule at approximately 3% per annum, the Fed’s $55 billion balance sheet of June 1970 would stand at just $230 billion today.
[The DEBT would only be 230 BILLION. I felt the need to emphasize what could have been if our politicians hadn’t started turning themselves into a Political Class, which requires spending a lot more money than any of us have.]
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/03.18/albatross.html
[What this all screams to me? I believe we have crossed the point of no return with the debt. I believe we will see some drastic actions taken very soon to limit our power to resist. I am not buying metals or ammo. I am buying gardening stuff, hoping we avoid a hot end to the Cold War. And, by the way? Every war benefits the bankers, no matter what kind.
The State of the Union message triggered a glimmer of hope, which was fueled by the QAnon drops. While I still believe Q is someone(s) in the periphery of Power, I no longer think it is a true insider. Perhaps, Q has a nice listening point inside a supply closet at Headquarters, like a certain union steward I knew a long time ago, but I no longer believe Q is really in on any plan, if there is a plan other than enriching themselves at our expense, which seems to be the main goal of the US government and bureaucracy since 1970, when Henry Kissinger turned US Diplomacy into his personal Risk game with no regard for the price of the game pieces.
I’m shutting up… I’m working on stuff offline and can’t even begin to tell you folks here how disturbing this is to me here in the suburbs of the sticks. The damn debt is insurmountable and will bring about catastrophic change to our country within the next few years: How can it not? There is no way around it. I’m planning to plant my seeds, water my garden, count my blessings and close my gates. With just a few friends and neighbors, we will be a community. Hopefully, that will be enough to carry us through. I suggest you make similar plans where you are sitting or go find a new place to sit it out.]