I’m excited! We’re in for a real treat. We’re going to gain a unique look at what’s going on in the world and how we can protect ourselves.
I’m a long-time subscriber to Richard Maybury’s “US & World Early Warning Report”. Richard offers a different perspective from any other newsletter I subscribe to. His candid approach to tackling tough issues is refreshing.
I’ve recently interviewed experts who warn of tough times ahead. Richard’s latest newsletter added some different concerns that can affect all of our retirement plans. He was kind enough to agree to an interview.
DENNIS: Richard, on behalf of our readers thank you for taking time for our education. There are a lot of warning signs regarding economic turmoil ahead. You recently brought up something I had not thought of, and it concerned me – trade restrictions & tariffs. Let’s start there.
RICHARD: Dennis, thank you for inviting me. You do great work, and it’s an honor to be here.
To prevent misunderstandings, before we begin I’d like to make something clear. When I criticize the government, I am not criticizing my country. The country and the government are not the same thing. I love America and would not want to live anywhere else. But for a half-century, ever since my experiences in the Air Force – ever since seeing how U.S. officials operate in other nations – I have considered the government to be my country’s most dangerous enemy. I like Mark Twain’s explanation:
“You see my kind of loyalty was loyalty to one’s country, not to its institutions, or its office holders. The country is the real thing, the substantial thing, the eternal thing; it is the thing to watch over, and care for, and be loyal to; institutions are extraneous, they are its mere clothing, and clothing can wear out, become ragged, cease to be comfortable, cease to protect the body from winter, disease, and death. To be loyal to rags, to shout for rags, to worship rags, to die for rags – this is loyalty to unreason, it is pure animal; it belongs to monarchy, was invented by monarchy; let monarchy keep it.”
Trump came to power on the promise to escalate the trade war, and he’s doing it. I think he and his advisors are mercantilists.
DENNIS: Richard, I’m with you. Our readers understand. I criticize the political class regularly, and it’s not taking sides. The bigger a government gets, the more they govern against the will of the people – and become the enemy.
Please explain what you mean about mercantilism…
RICHARD: Mercantilism is an economic philosophy that was popular in Europe in the 1500s to 1700s. Those were the days when people also believed in disease being caused by evil spirits, gold could be made from lead, and divine right of kings.
Mercantilism said the measure of a country’s economic success is not the goods and services making the typical person’s life better, but the amount of money accumulated within the borders of the country.
|
Advertisement Our friend Tim Plaehn at The Dividend Hunter has set up a unique Monthly Dividend Paycheck Calendar system that can provide you with an average of $4,000 a month in extra income based on a model portfolio of $500,000. For a limited time, he’s offering readers a 50% discount on the first year of a subscription: just $49. Disclosure: we get a small commission on sales that we use to keep Miller on the Money Free. CLICK HERE for more information. |
DENNIS: But isn’t money a good thing?
RICHARD: Certainly. But a mercantilist puts money first. It does not matter if the whole population is jobless and starving as long as money is piling up.
DENNIS: Do you feel Trump believes that?
RICHARD: I’m not a mind reader. I only know the direction he’s moving. His desire for a trade surplus with, for instance, China, means he wants to pull these little slips of paper called money into America and ship valuable goods out. It’s crazy. As things stand now, the Chinese are sending us boatloads of steel and other valuable goods, and we are shipping them bales of worthless paper money. Trump wants to reverse this. He wants our warehouses packed with slips of paper, and those of the Chinese filled with steel, aluminum, etc.
DENNIS: You make him sound like an economic dunce.
RICHARD: The question before us is simple. Do we want those pieces of paper, or do we want things that are real and valuable? Trump wants the confetti. And it’s not just him; it’s his advisors, too. They say they’re behind him on this. But escalating the trade war means they want more confetti coming in, and more real goods going out.
DENNIS: Interesting. Our Toyota was built in Evansville, IN. I prefer both the jobs and goods in America and the little slips of worthless paper going offshore.
In one of your Early Warning Reports, you mentioned the failure of politicians and bureaucrats to remember the Smoot-Hawley tariffs.
RICHARD: Yes, in 1930, U.S. politicians decided to escalate the trade war, by levying the Smoot-Hawley Tariffs. Other governments retaliated, and the tit-for-tat trade restrictions quickly spread around the world, turning a recession into the Great Depression.
The joblessness led to the rise of Hitler and other lunatics, which led to World War II, the worst conflict in all of history. Trump apparently has the same mindset as Senator Smoot and Representative Hawley. But practically no one these days studies economic history, and now Trump is repeating it.
DENNIS: Scary!
RICHARD: Absolutely. The depth of the Trump gang’s economic ignorance is breathtaking. On March 2nd, he actually said, “trade wars are good, and easy to win.” This shows an astounding degree of cluelessness. Contrast it with the warning by the great libertarian economist and legal scholar Frederick Bastiat (1801-1850): “When goods do not cross borders, soldiers will.” (emphasis mine) There’s hardly anything that will trigger a shooting war as fast as governments trying to destroy businesses and jobs in each other’s countries.
DENNIS: I’m also concerned about tariffs. As you outlined, the egos of the political class can get in the way and the people are really hurt. The political class worldwide has plenty of egotistical leaders.
Some feel that Trump is not serious about tariffs and is just trying to renegotiate a trade deal; however; “Trade wars are good and easy to win” also concerned me.
When you couple U.S. wages with our heavy governmental regulations on business, you should expect your competition to have a significant advantage in the marketplace.
While I don’t want to debate NAFTA or other trade agreements, how does a country reverse a bad trade agreement, or perhaps reverse course, without starting a trade war?
RICHARD: Two good examples to follow are the Hanseatic League and the Kennedy Round. The Hanseatic League, in the 14th to 17th centuries, was a group of cities in Europe that practiced much freer trade among themselves. Because of this, they became far more prosperous than other cities.
The Kennedy Round in the 1960s was free trade talks among scores of governments led by Washington. Able to point to the example of nearly total free trade among the 50 U.S. states, which produced the most prosperous country ever known, U.S. officials persuaded 66 ruling regimes to move back in the direction of free trade. And it worked. The whole world experienced the greatest era of abundance ever known until that time.
|
Advertisement
There are many factors to be considered, and you have to get it right. It’s designed as a tool for working with the Social Security Administration, or your financial advisor. For more detailed information, click HERE. |
Dennis again. I want readers to know I have no financial arrangement with Richard or his company. I’m happy to recommend his “US & World Early Warning Report” in exchange for him kindly taking his time for our benefit.
I’ve decided to continue this interview next week. Richard shares his thoughts on our never-ending wars and how they might end…. Stay tuned, it’s really interesting!
The tariff issue is complicated, which is why I asked an expert for help. I’ve concluded that a tariff is like many government ideas – a great theory that can backfire! Tariffs are done for political reasons, much like raising the minimum wage. While those who benefit directly love the politicians, their customers may suffer unintended consequences.
Bill Bonner’s recent article, “Why Trump Will Lose His Trade War” explains it this way:
“Meanwhile, Harley-Davidson came forward and explained to the president why a trade war is a losing proposition. Bloomberg:
“The motorcycle maker is warning that Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum could drive up costs. European leaders’ threats of retaliation – which have specifically called out the iconic American company – also risk hurting sales overseas.”
…. Trump’s trade tariffs will hurt the very heartland industries he pledged to help.
Harley-Davidson and every other decent business are forced to compete in a win-win world – by satisfying customers every day. …. Already, Harley sales are falling all over the world.
Business leaders are … like the rest of us, … subject to influence. …. They’d much prefer “protection” to competing honestly.
But protection is among the worst things you can give to a business; you may as well tell your children not to bother with their homework.”
What’s next, a tariff on Kawasaki? A tariff is like a shot of Novocain. It may hide the pain temporarily, but it does nothing to cure the cause of the problem.
I’m with Richard – a truly free market, without government intervention, is probably the best long-term solution. Governments worldwide have infused themselves into the market to the point that I’m not sure free market capitalism still exists.
Let’s hope they don’t get their dander up about a trade war because the world will suffer. Richard will weigh in on that subject next week.
And Finally…
“If you always protect your offspring in a cocoon they will never learn how to fly…”
For more information, check out my website or follow me on FaceBook.
Get your FREE Special Report:
10 Easy Steps To The Ultimate Worry-Free Retirement Plan
Until next time…
Dennis
www.MillerOnTheMoney.com
There’s nothing ever new in d.c. Same old bullshit with a new gang of saps cheering along. Lower taxes for the well connected, more gov’t spending, another dose of crony capitalism for a favored group, a fig leaf of border protection and, of course, more warmongering. It’s W all over again. At least the Orange Crusader bags finer pussy.
If there is nothing new, there certainly seem to be a lot of powerful people highly upset about seeing new things happening.
It’s a good point you make. He certainly has pissed off all the right people. I attribute all the venom to warring mafia families. Both factions want to run the racket and are willing to kill the other side to do so. Great power and loot is being bandied about. It’s bound to bring about passionate opponents. While I understand the emotional draw to tariffs it still boils down to a get-rich-quick scheme imo. In the end you don’t legislate a better standard of living, you earn it.
The rest of the points are just fact.
Indeed. People who talk about Smoot-Hawley are economic ignoramuses.It had no effect on the Depression..The most prosperous times in the US came under the American System, with high tariff walls and a government that was funded by tariffs and excise taxes, NOT the highly pernicious income tax.
There’s a name for countries that have few remaining manufacturing jobs, and lots of minimum wage workers–third World.
Author, please explain how Germany has been hurt by trade surpluses. Also, why can’t U.S. take the pieces of paper flowing into the country and buy real assets with them like China has done? This is not the 1700s either. Mercantilist trade of manufactured products is different from selling off your country’s natural resources.
Whenever I hear “Smoot-Hawley, Smoot-Hawley!” I think of Gomer Pyle running down the street in Mayberry shouting “citizen’s arrest, citizen’s arrest!”
Why does America have to pay tariffs/taxes to the EU and China but for some reason they don’t have to reciprocate? The globalists are fleecing the U.S. and enriching themselves overseas with the bounty.
The greatest economic boom in this country came after WWII when many other country imported goods from the U.S. As U.S. profits grew more resources were exploited, more labor was employed, and more investments of all kinds were made so that the U.S. achieved a high rate of technological progress, which further put it ahead of other nations. During the war, gold flew into the U.S. treasury, so the dollar strengthened and purchased more. Other countries held their reserves in dollars and paid for imports in dollars.
During that time, women did not have to work outside the home and husbands could buy homes, cars, vacations, and educate their children on one income.
What overturned the applecart was not an abundance of exports and pieces of paper flooding our shores, but politicians spending on welfare, warfare, policing the world, and otherwise pissing away the wealth of the country.
Mercantilists of old were not all of one thought. Not many wanted to salt away bullion for its own sake. They wanted to invest, but the problem was then as it is now, regulations that became so numerous and convoluted that nothing much got done without graft and collusion.
Then, too, if gold piled up and inflation took hold in one country with prices rising and imports increasing, the gold went the other way to some other country that was more productive. And so on.
The thing about China and other Asian nations is that U.S. technology was stolen. Does anyone imagine that China could come as far as it has as fast as it has without U.S. technology? They stole it outright or demanded of U.S. companies the transfer of technology for the right to sell products in China while only allowing these companies to own at most 49% of the Chinese company using the company’s technology. Whose idea was that? Should we blame mercantilists for that, too?
Trump is a renegade. We fucking need a renegade right now to upset the way things have been getting done. It’s possible even likely that economic wars will set off an economies crash, but is that worse than continuing on with endless debt that will in time crush the world anyway and be even worse for having gone on so long when it all needs to end sooner than later if we are to recover at all?
Agree except that our Owners (the Rothschild Central Banker Oligarch Minions) are greedy traitors and engineered America’s rape.
Maybe Trump is in a race with the Gangster Bankers to crash the system and take control of the narrative?
Abruptly turning the 4th corner…whether they realize it or not?
T4C’s X-22 past recommendations are right on…been a big fan of the site for a long time.
Many theories and possibilities fleshed out in brief snappy discussions.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCB1o7_gbFp2PLsamWxFenBg
If Trump is a mercantilist and bad, bad, bad. But, I am not a mind reader just makes the preceeding moot. Great argument style.