Can Russia Survive Her “Partnerships”? Has Putin Made A Strategic Miscalculation?

Guest Post by Paul Craig Roberts

In an act of intentional deception, Israel used a Russian airplane to cloak an Israeli attack on a Syrian ground position, with the consequence that Syrian air defense missiles downed the Russian airplane with the lost of 15 Russian military lives.

In the words of the Russian Ministry of Defense: “The Israeli pilots used the Russian plane as cover and set it up to be targeted by the Syrian air defense forces. As a consequence, the Il-20, which has radar cross-section much larger than the [Israeli] F-16, was shot down by an S-200 system missile.” Russian Defense Minister Shoigu said: “The blame for the downing of the Russian plane and the deaths of its crew members lies squarely on the Israeli side. The actions of the Israeli military were not in keeping with the spirit of the Russian-Israeli partnership, so we reserve the right to respond.” https://russia-insider.com/en/russian-military-says-holds-israel-responsible-deaths-15-servicemen-reserves-right-respond/ri24780 See also: http://tass.com/defense/1022123

For a few minutes it looked like Israel was finally to be held accountable for its reckless and irresponsible actions, but it was not to be. Russian President Putin contradicted his Defense Minister by declaring the loss of Russian lives to be “accidental,” a result of a “chain of tragic circumstances.”

One wonders how Israel does it. President Putin covered up for Israel’s destruction of the Russian IL-20 just as President Johnson covered up for Israel’s murderous attack on the USS Liberty that resulted in 208 US Navy casualties. https://www.rt.com/news/438728-putin-israel-syria-plane/ As Israel gets away with everything, including routine massacres of unarmed Palestinian women and children, there is no reason to expect Israel to change its behavior.

Putin, however, might have to change his behavior or go to full-scale war. I have long admired and defended Putin’s refusal to escalate conflict by refusing to reply to provocation with provocation. Putin understands that he is dealing with irrationality both in Washington and the West generally and in Israel. He doesn’t want to see this irrationality erupt in nuclear war. Everyone should admire Putin for his rectitude. Nevertheless, when dealing with bullies, which is what Washington and Israel are, there is a downside to Putin’s policy of turning the other cheek. Acceptance of provocations and insults leads to more provocations and insults.

Although this is history’s lesson, I learned it from the American TV program, Kung Fu, about a Shaolin priest, Caine, on the American western frontier during the 1800s who ignores provocations until he has no alternative but to fight.

This is what Putin is doing. Putin’s disinclination to fight encouraged “Russia’s partner” Netanyahu to demonstrate that Israel has the same power over Russia that Israel has over the US. Netanyahu wasn’t the least bit fearful of sacrificing 15 Russian lives in order to successfully attack a Syrian site. Netanyahu knew that only Putin would suffer any adverse consequences.

The consequences for Putin are serious. Russian nationalists, as opposed to the pro-American Atlanticist Integrationists, are angry that Putin will not defend Russia’s honor. The Russian military is incensed that Putin, for Israel’s sake, cut the legs off of the beloved Defense Minister. According to some reports that I cannot verify, confidence in Putin is eroding as Russians hear from the Jewish controlled elements of the Russian media that Putin, by deflecting the murderous incident, is strengthening the Russian-Israeli relationship. One Internet site actually has the headline: “Putin to Powers Attacking Syria: Please Keep Getting My Soldiers Killed, I Won’t Do Anything About It.”

The consequences for Putin and for Syria could be worse than serious. Putin had just called off the announced Russian/Syrian liberation of Idlib province from the terrorists, euphemistically called “the Syrian opposition” by the Russian government, in a concession to Turkey’s President Erdogan, who also shot down a Russian aircraft. What does this tell Washington and its well-paid terrorist allies?

It tells them that Russia is easily stymied and that Idlib is secure in Washington’s hands while forces there are built up for a renewal of the effort to turn Syria, like Libya, like Iraq, like Yeman, like Somalia, into a wasteland.

Israel wants Syria as a wasteland, like Iraq, and intends to produce that outcome in Iran as well. Israel wants the water resources of southern Lebanon, but the Hezbollah militia, supported and supplied by Syria and Iran is in the way. Twice the Israeli Army sent to occupy southern Lebanon was defeated and driven out by Hezbollah. Israel cannot risk a third defeat, so Israel uses its American puppet. Indeed, the only reason Washington has been at war in the Middle East for the entirety of the 21st century is because Washington is serving Israel’s agenda.

It is difficult to believe that the Russian government is so poorly advised that it does not understand this. The “Russian-Israeli partnership” described by Russian Defense Minister Shoigu can be based on nothing other than Russian ignorance. The two countries have totally different agendas in the Middle East. Israel is attempting to use Washington to eliminate governments independent of Washington’s Israeli-directed foreign policy in the Middle East as these governments are a constraint on Israeli expansion. Russia is attempting to prevent the spread of the US-supported jihadists to Russia’s borders, or so I think or thought.

My understanding, however, is being challenged. I am contradicted by Russian nationalists who maintain that Putin, misunderstanding that the jihadists terrorists are an American organized and supported force, went into Syria in order to show his solidarity with “America’s war against terrorism.” I find it difficult to believe that Putin, even surrounded by American-worshipping Atlanticist Integrationists, could possibly be this misinformed. But who knows? When did the US last have an informed president? Informed by the real facts, not by the special interests whispering into his ear.

I am concerned that Putin, by giving in to Turkey, by covering up for Israel, by calling off the liberation of Idlib province, and by his previous non-responses has set himself up for his next test, which could be in Ukraine. By his refusal to accept the breakaway Russian republics of Donetsk and Luhansk back into Russia where they belong, Putin has allowed this sore to fester. Washington has used the opportunity to arm its Ukrainian puppet and is betting that Putin will refuse to defend the breakaway Russians just as he refused to defend the Russian military from Israel in Syria.

Sooner or later Putin is going to find himself in the identical position as Caine. He will have to fight or surrender. By waiting Putin guarantees that provocations will increase in intensity until there is no alternative to putting the Russian foot down in a major way. Thus, the avoidance of conflict guarantees the conflict, but a larger, more dangerous one.

I was astonished to read that the Russian Defense Minister spoke of a “Russian-Israeli partnership.” I was even more astonished to learn that Russia, which has been engaged for some years in the liberation of Syria from Western supported terrorists, permits Israel and France to attack Syria. Russia can wipe Israel and France off the face of the earth in a few minutes with zero cost to Russia, but Russia accepts constraints and defeats from insignificant military powers.

The Russian military reports that, at the same time the Russian aircraft was destroyed by Israeli deception, missiles were fired from the French frigate FS Auvergne, apparently at the same target in Syria’s Latakia province that were struck by the Israeli aircraft. What sense does it make for Russia, intent on liberating one province, to allow Israeli and French attacks on another Syrian province?

In my opinion, Russia’s inability to stand firm in the face of Western and Israeli aggression will be the principal cause of World War Three in which we will all die and the planet as well.

NOTE:

Strategies Have Unintended Consequences

Since posting my remarks — https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2018/09/18/can-russia-survive-her-partnerships-has-putin-made-a-strategic-miscalculation/ — other comments on President Putin’s response to the loss of Russian lives have appeared. I am providing links to two of them as examples of the negative consequences for Putin:

https://www.fort-russ.com/2018/09/the-overarching-strategic-logic-behind-provocations-against-russia-2014-2018/

https://russia-insider.com/en/il-20-loss-perfect-opportunity-russia-close-down-syria-israeli-attacks-good/ri24794

Understand that I am not denigrating President Putin. I understand his strategy and consider his strategy to be moral and responsible. My concern is with the unintended consequences of his strategy.

Unintended consequences are a bane of mankind and must be considered and, hopefully, anticipated.

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robert h siddell jr
robert h siddell jr

Israel was attacking Syria in the first place and is to blame.

anarchyst
anarchyst

This sure looks like Russia,s version of the deliberate Israeli attack on the USS Liberty (GTR-5)…
Will Putin let Israel get away with it?
Sure looks that way…

Jack Lovett

PCR is correct in his analisis. The amount of taxpayer money the US gives to Israel is obcene. No dear, it is not for food, its for weapons.

Anonymous
Anonymous

So far, Putin has thwarted the west’s plan to destroy the nation state of Syria.

There is a chance that Syria will begin to see more advanced AA as a result of this “debacle”
if the Syrians get the S-300 or S-400 to replace the old S-200, then Syria will be able to stop all foreign aircraft from using their airspace.

this would be a game changer, as no country would leave their troops on the ground, without air superiority.

AC
AC

Syria has some S-300 batteries. Russia is operating at least two S-400 batteries in Syria. There will probably be more by the end of 2018. By the end of 2019, I’d expect to see them in Lebanon and Jordan as well.

Once Israel loses regional air supremacy, Hezbollah will probably throw a party for them.

unit472
unit472

Let’s be realistic. Just what can Putin do? He has a couple of dozen combat aircraft in Syria. Israel has 350 or so and their training and equipment are better than Russia’s. Back in the 1980’s Russian aircraft with Syrian pilots went up against the Israeli Air Force over Lebanon and the score ended up 90-0 in favor of the Israelis.

How would it benefit Putin to escalate the situation and have Israel shoot down more Russian aircraft and pilots?

Stucky

“Russia’s inability to stand firm in the face of Western and Israeli aggression will be the principal cause of World War Three in which we will all die and the planet as well.” ——- PCR

Massively ignorant conclusion to an otherwise good article.

PCR is annoying because he pretends to write from a position of authority when, in fact, he writes from a position of ignorance . I am not saying that PCR is ignorant.

What I am saying is that PCR has no access to dozens, hundreds, or perhaps even thousands of facts available to Putin. PCR is not privy to what goes on inside the Kremlin (which has massive resources) . And he sure as fuck can’t read Putin’s mind!

So, while the article certainly is interesting conjecture concerning Putin’s goals (short & long term), strategy, and tactics …. at the end of the day, it’s mostly bullshit.

PS: EVERYTHING is says about Israhell is correct.

TampaRed
TampaRed

pcr also is becoming more & more hysterical–
he also either forgets or ignores inconvenient facts–for example,he acts as if putin is doing the usa a favor to participate in the war on terror–hell,russia has been hit by terrorists much more than we have–
i like pcr but he has become a denninger on a different subject–

Thunderbird
Thunderbird

Stucky.

I read that article by PCR. Why PCR and many are off base with the Russian psyche is that they have been brain washed by the western mindset promoted by deception calling Russia the Bear. Don’t piss off the Russian bear and when provoking the bear everyone expects the bear to retaliate brutally. And when it doesn’t people are confused.

Actually Putin is acting like a cat. Remember the story about the cook and the cat? As the cat is eating the chicken the cooking is jumping up and down and yelling at the cat but the cat keeps eating the chicken because it knows the cook will do nothing. The cat was supposed to keep the mice from the chicken. Oh Well.

Putin has done well over the last 4 years and the west is upset. Putin keeps on keeping on. Why provoke WW3?

TampaRed
TampaRed

short article from thenationalinterest.org–
this claims that the israeli planes were back in israeli airspace b4 the syrians fired,and it makes no comment about the french ship–
who knows?
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/who-really-shot-down-russias-plane-31502

capt' fast
capt' fast

If the S-200 could have discriminated the Il-20 spy plane’s IFF signal, perhaps the Russian lives would not have been lost. yes, it is a technical response to a political problem. the Russian defense ministry have themselves to blame for the loss of their aircraft. blame israel for it? Israel was playing the game by the rules established by the russians when the russians deployed the air defense system into syria(always the monkey model,never the first line equipment) and then they put the syrians in the seat with their fingers on the triggers.
so, what is now happening is finger pointing and blame shedding, a natural byproduct of the russians own system of command and control.
I have a very high level of curiosity for the reasons iran has for not invading iraq at this point. that battle will eventually start up again in as much as a totalitarian government needs an external threat to point at in order to retain its strangle hold on it’s people. the old death to america can only work for so long and america is oh so far away across the pacific. then there is all that oil. but then nuclear weapons will come into play because israel.
\
In the end, we are looking at the eventual destruction of of the states of syria and israel and possibly jordan and lebanon which is what everyone in the middle east wants. Egypt would be left standing there because they have no resources so who would want egypt without israel to annoy. destroying syria eliminates russian influence in the region and destroying israel along with the embarrassingly annoying palestinians is what every one else in the region professes to want in their double secret heart of hearts. jordan and lebanon are the nonplayer coincidental and convenient collateral damage that everyone involved will just wink wink about.
if i was king of the world, i would bottle the middle east up in a sealed jar and dump it into outer space towards the farthest galaxy i could find and send their oil with them. we have a mixture of religion, money, greed, jealousy, hate, ignorance, intolerance, slavery,almost all the vices ever known to man kind emanate out of the area. i don’t know it must be the heat and all that oil that causes such brain damaged dumbassery.

and what do the russians get out of all of this skullduggery that they have going on? what is putins game here?

at a certain point, the fireman running around dousing water on embers takes a look behind himself and finds the fire house has burned down. and russia is playing arsonist in this game.

BB
BB

Maybe Putin has read Morals and Dogma by Albert Pike and his other writing calling for 3 world wars. He got the first two.
Israel does get away with a lot of shit like it’s part in 9/11 . They helped murder 2700 Americans and got away with it.

Thunderbird
Thunderbird

Have you read the third lecture in Morals and dogma where Pike talks about Republics and Democracies? Our situation today in this country is exactly how Pike is explaining Democracy on it’s deathbed.

I am sure Putin the cat has read it. It might shock you to realize from this lecture that our leaders today are men lacking in moral integrity.

WestcoastDeplorable
WestcoastDeplorable

I think Putin has been very patient with the West. Amazing. But when and if he finally retaliates it will be epic.

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