Human extinction may be the stuff of nightmares but there are many ways in which it could happen.
Popular culture tends to focus on only the most spectacular possibilities: think of the hurtling asteroid of the film Armageddon or the alien invasion of Independence Day.
While a dramatic end to humanity is possible, focusing on such scenarios may mean ignoring the most serious threats we face in today’s world.
And it could be that we are able to do something about these.
Volcanic threats
In 1815 an eruption of Mount Tambora, in Indonesia, killed more than 70,000 people, while hurling volcanic ash into the upper atmosphere.
It reduced the amount of sunlight hitting the surface of the Earth, triggering what has become known as the “year without a summer”.
Lake Toba, at the other end of Sumatra, tells a still more sinister story. It was formed by a truly massive super-volcanic eruption 75,000 years ago, the impact of which was felt around the world.
It has been suggested that the event led to dramatic population decline in early humans, although this has recently been questioned.
But while the prospect of a super-volcanic eruption is terrifying, we should not worry too much. Super-volcanoes and other natural disasters, such as an asteroid striking Earth or a star exploding in our cosmic neighbourhood, are no more likely in 2019 than any other year. And that is not very likely.
Growing threats
The same cannot be said for many global threats induced by people.
For example, the World Health Organization and the World Economic Forum both listed climate change and its effects as one of their top risks for 2019.
Recent UN talks heard climate change was already “a matter of life and death” for many regions. While many, including Sir David Attenborough, believe it could lead to the collapse of civilisations and the extinction of “much of the natural world”.
The threats are complex and diverse, from killer heatwaves and rising sea levels to widespread famines and migration on a truly immense scale.
Also increasing are the potential risks from novel technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI).
The scenarios range from increasingly sophisticated cyber-weapons that could hold an entire nation’s data to ransom, to autonomous algorithms that could unwittingly cause a stock-market crash.
Another threat is the possibility of a nuclear war.
While many focus on rising tensions between global powers, new technologies may also be making us less safe.
This is because of both the “entanglement” of nuclear and conventional weapons and the risk that AI could help unleash nuclear war.
Another risk that may be increasing is that of global pandemics. Influenza, for example, is thought to kill an average of 700,000 people and cost the global economy $500bn (£391bn) per year.
Increasingly dense and mobile human populations have the potential to see new influenza strains spread easily. And this raises concerns about a future outbreak like the 1918 Spanish Flu, which killed up to 50 million people.
However, widespread vaccination programmes and other disease prevention measures help reduce this risk.
How to calculate the chance of an existential risk
- Look at historical or geological records. We can keep track of some events such as super-volcanoes and asteroid impacts
- Find a natural precedent. When scientists explored the risk the Cern reactor might pose, they looked at similar environments that occur in stars
- Build a model. Scientists use sophisticated atmospheric models to explore the future of our climate
- For threats that can’t be modelled, scientists generate insights by engaging in war-gaming and other exercises
- The UK government also maintains a register of national risks, including floods, space weather and disease
A disruptive future
While these threats are real, the greatest danger we face in 2019, when viewed from a global perspective, probably lies elsewhere.
With almost eight billion people living on Earth, we are increasingly reliant upon global systems to sustain us. These range from the environment that provides us with food, water, clean air and energy, to the global economy that turns these into goods and services.
Yet, from declining levels of biodiversity to overextended infrastructure and supply chains, many of these systems are already stressed to breaking point. And rapid climate change is only making things worse.
Given this, it may be that global risks should not be defined by the size of the disaster that caused them, but by their potential to disrupt these vital systems.
The potential is hinted at in recent examples of cascading effects.
The 2010 eruption of Iceland’s Eyjafjallajökull volcano killed no-one but closed air traffic over Europe for six days. And, in 2017, the relatively unsophisticated WannaCry ransomware attack shut down parts of the NHS and other organisations around the world.
Since almost everything we rely on also depends on a functioning electrical, computing and internet system, anything that would damage this – from a solar flare to a high atmosphere nuclear explosion – could cause very widespread harm.
Disaster prevention
There may, however, be new ways to reduce this risk.
There is an old story of King Canute of the Danes commanding the sea to retreat. He knew he would be unable to hold back the tide and a similar sense of powerlessness can easily overtake us when we consider potential future catastrophes.
However, the truth is that the Danes have been pushing back their shoreline for generations: building dykes and draining marshes to protect themselves from the oncoming tide.
Sometimes it is better to protect ourselves by thinking of ways to make humanity more resilient to disasters that are to come.
And this could give us the best way of ensuring that 2019 – and beyond – are safe years for humanity.
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Man/woman is the biggest threat to humanity.
The only way we pull out of this nosedive is if the areas with high excess carrying capacity stop subsidizing the areas with low carrying capacity.
Biggest threat to humanity?
Bananas.
Anybody who ever ate a banana went on to die. Eventually.
So yeah, bananas. 100% lethal.
The economic crash is probably the most urgent concern. $Trillions in debt and a $Quadrillion in derivatives is set to explode. This debt can not and will not ever be repaid. It is a class 5 financial hurricane bearing down on us all that will wipe out pensions, 401Ks, stocks, bonds, every paper asset you can imagine.
https://youtu.be/FzmBpjI-V-8
Outstanding Post Steve!
Excellent stuff Steve
Really? When?
Solar burst that fries the grid / micro circuits. We will back to population levels of the 1700’s or less.
There are two levels of threats. By calling it a ‘threat to humanity’ they are talking extinction level threats. But there are far more civilization ending threats that some portion of humanity could survive in a primitive state. It is a much lower threshold, and there fore a threshold much more frequently cleared.
Take asteroids they pooh poohed. in the last 12k years, there have been three, that we know of, that would end civilization as we know it. Given that humanity DID survive them, they were by definition not extinction level events. One in the Canadian Rockies, one in Greenland that were the start and end of the Younger Dryas, and between them wiped out 75% of the megafauna (mammals >75lbs) in north america along with a host of other changes. It may well have wiped out a pre-existing human population in north america, facilitating repopulation during the younger dryas while the land bridge to asia was open. There was also one in the Indian ocean about 6k years ago (burkle crater) that would also be civilization ending. So our planet gets whacked by the cosmos every few thousand years with civilization enders. And it is has been a few thousand years. Any given year, it is unlikely, but over sufficiently long stretches it eventually becomes inevitable. There may or may not be patterns to it (like the oscillation of our solar system above and below the galactic orbital disk)
They talk about flu, but but there are scarier things out there. Take ebola (or other marburg type). It spreads very quickly, when unconstrained, it doubles roughly every 21 days. It spreads and kills quickly, and requires bioprotection levels beyond our capability to deliver in any substantial way. Note the case in Dallas, who within 2 weeks infected 2 nurses caring for him. It doubled in weeks despite every possible precaution taken in the best conditions of a major metropolitan hospital possible focused on only 1 case as opposed to a medical system collapsing around them from being overwhelmed. There are 11 Biocontainment Level 4 (BL4) beds in the US (where the infected nurses were treated without infecting more people). The 12th ebola case breaks the US medical system again. Or one case inconveniently located relative to one of those 12. If I was a nurse or a doctor, I am not showing up for work in a hospital with a half dozen ebola cases among the hundreds of beds.
From the 1st lone patient to the very last uninfected person on earth it is 34 doublings. There would be fits and starts, it wouldn’t be steady at that rate, but that is an average rate. The west africa breakout a couple of years ago go to the 16th doubling before burning itself out. The current Congo outbreak is at the 12th doubling, in a war zone, in a desperately poor country, with very poor transportation infrastructure, and effectively no air travel. The pattern will be either burn out locally, or it makes it to a major city with many thousands more casualties, some of whom make to another city with air travel…
Ebola will not wipe out humanity. There would be survivors. Some people recover. You would have to wait years to have children, but some would. Humanity would survive a global Ebola pandemic. It would not be extinction level. But it would end civilization.
Biowarfare could easily end up the same. Imagine if the Chinese released a virus that would kill 75% of non-Han, collapsing every other civilization. The Japanese respond with a virus that targets everyone who isn’t Japanese, including the Han and everyone else getting double whammied. Not sure if we’re there yet, but we’re at least within single digit years of those capabilities. One thing about humans, when they have weapons…they usually end up getting used.
There would be people who isolate themselves (think the uncontacted tribes in the amazon, and those who emulate them). There would be people with natural resistance. Humanity would survive. Any form of civilization would not. When the last scraps of iron rusted away, we would be back to sharpening rocks.
And waiting for the next asteroid.
I think it would be best if we worried less about watermelon global warming and focused on:
1. global health/infectious disease and quarantine abilities
2. ability to intercept and either destroy or alter a potential orbital impact
3. get some part of humanity survivable off of this rock
Without the right combination of those three, our ancestors will eventually need to relearn how to knap flint.
(random thought, humans, in their modern form and intelligence level, have been around for ~150k years, +/- 50k. Ever wonder why we think everything interesting happened in the last six thousand years or so, since the last civilization ending scale cosmic impact?)
I think my post is more interesting and thought provoking than that lame BBC article.
Central and fractional-reserve banking, the most evil system of theft and plunder ever devised by mankind, is the greatest treat to humanity. It has been well documented by Stephen Mitford Goodson in “A History of Central Banking and the Enslavement of Mankind”.
President Jefferson agreed. Highly prophetic because Americans are now waking up “… homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.” Unless the European people face this basic truth, they will never escape out of bondage.
“I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.”
Thomas Jefferson, (Attributed)
3rd president of US (1743 – 1826)
The concentrated power of government has ALWAYS been the greatest threat to mankind.
I’m going to have to side with my boy Henry Ford on this one, Alex.
Selling trucks and tank engines to the Nazi’s??
Nope, it’s the media. Their fun and games have changed all things. One day their stories will spark a riot/rebellion/war. I trust them less than the gov.
People are just going to stop reproducing.
A lack of critical thinking skills.
Liberals.
Revelation 8:10-11 King James Version (KJV)
10 And the third angel sounded, and there fell a great star from heaven, burning as it were a lamp, and it fell upon the third part of the rivers, and upon the fountains of waters;
11 And the name of the star is called Wormwood: and the third part of the waters became wormwood; and many men died of the waters, because they were made bitter.
Ever wonder why one of the gifts of the Spirit is the ability to drink any deadly thing?
Mark 16:17-18 KJB… “And these signs shall follow them that believe; In my name shall they cast out devils; they shall speak with new tongues; They shall take up serpents; and if they drink any deadly thing, it shall not hurt them; they shall lay hands on the sick, and they shall recover.”
There it is.
You got it Barry. Men should be most concerned with their Creator. This old world will continue until He says otherwise.
Rather, Not writes… “Ever wonder why we think everything interesting happened in the last six thousand years or so, since the last civilization ending scale cosmic impact?)”
Nope.
“Ever wonder why one of the gifts of the Spirit is the ability to drink any deadly thing?”
Are you willing to drink a glass of arsenic?
Why not? You’re such a holy guy …. surely you have the Holee Spirit in you. So, what are you afraid of?
Can you answer by NOT putting up some Bible verse?
The chances of GCP not putting up a Bible verse:
A) Can I use negative numbers?
B) It’ll be a cold day in hell.
C) AOC will grow a brain first.
You win!
“Are you willing to drink a glass of arsenic?”
Hell no! I don’t have those gifts. Don’t need them either. I’m saved by grace through faith and not appointed unto wrath. Only those who must “endure to the end” require such physical gifts. They have a great tribulation to go through. Me, I’m blessed with all spiritual blessings in heavenly places.
Ephesians 1:3 KJB… “Blessed be the God and Father of our Lord Jesus Christ, who hath blessed us with all spiritual blessings in heavenly places in Christ:”
I got a front row seat at the apocalypse
With a chili cheese dog and a bag of chips;
All the women in Heaven got hula-girl hips
(Don’t worry Stucky…)
Ever’thing’s gonna be all right.
Romans 5:8… “But God commendeth his love toward us, in that, while we were yet sinners, Christ died for us.”
Trust, alone… in grace, alone… through faith, alone… in the shed blood of Christ, alone. It is finished. There is no room for religion. Indeed, the gift of Gods grace is an insult to religious people. The only thing left to do is say thank you. 🙂
Stupid people in gov. Listening to the scientist who really don’t have a clue. Harvard and the sky spraying program to cool the earth. When we are entering a global cooling period due to the sun cooling.
All that shit is the least of the white mans problems. I’d be more worried about the diversity coming our way!
The ADL
Maybe faggots