U.S. “Gets Its Ass Handed To It” In World War III Simulation: RAND

Via ZeroHedge

In simulated World War III scenarios, the U.S. continues to lose against Russia and China, two top war planners warned last week. “In our games, when we fight Russia and China, blue gets its ass handed to it” RAND analyst David Ochmanek said Thursday.

RAND’s wargames show how US Armed Forces – colored blue on wargame maps – experience the most substantial losses in one scenario after another and still can’t thwart Russia or China – which predictably is red – from accomplishing their objectives: annihilating Western forces.

“We lose a lot of people. We lose a lot of equipment. We usually fail to achieve our objective of preventing aggression by the adversary,” he warned.

In the next military conflict, which some believe may come as soon as the mid-2020s, all five battlefield domains: land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace, will be heavily contested, suggesting the U.S. could have a difficult time in achieving superiority as it has in prior conflicts.

The simulated war games showed, the “red” aggressor force often destroys U.S. F-35 Lightning II stealth fighters on the runway, sends several Naval fleets to the depths, destroys US military bases, and through electronic warfare, takes control of critical military communication systems. In short, a gruesome, if simulated, annihilation of some of the most modern of US forces.

“In every case I know of,” said Robert Work, a former deputy secretary of defense with years of wargaming experience, “the F-35 rules the sky when it’s in the sky, but it gets killed on the ground in large numbers.”

So, as Russia and China develop fifth-generation fighters and hypersonic missiles, “things that rely on sophisticated base infrastructures like runways and fuel tanks are going to have a hard time,” Ochmanek said. “Things that sail on the surface of the sea are going to have a hard time.”

“That’s why the 2020 budget coming out next week retires the carrier USS Truman decades early and cuts two amphibious landing ships, as we’ve reported. It’s also why the Marine Corps is buying the jump-jet version of the F-35, which can take off and land from tiny, ad hoc airstrips, but how well they can maintain a high-tech aircraft in low-tech surroundings is an open question,” said Breaking Defense.

Meanwhile, speaking purely hypothetically of course, “if we went to war in Europe, there would be one Patriot battery moving, and it would go to Ramstein. And that’s it,” Work complained. The US has 58 Brigade Combat Teams across the continent but doesn’t have anti-air and missile-defense capabilities required to handle a barrage of missiles from Russia.

RAND also war-gamed cyber and electronic attacks in the simulations, Work said; Russia and China tend to cripple US communication networks.

“Whenever we have an exercise and the red force really destroys our command and control, we stop the exercise,” Work said without a trace of humor. Beijing calls this “system destruction warfare,” Work said. They aim to “attack the American battle network at all levels, relentlessly, and they practice it all the time.”

The Air Force asked RAND to formulate a plan several years ago to improve the outcomes of the wargames in favor of the US, Ochmanek said. “We found it impossible to spend more than $8 billion a year” to fix the problems.

“That’s $8 billion for the Air Force. Triple that to cover for the Army and the Navy Department (which includes the US Marines),” Ochmanek said, “and you get $24 billion.”

Work was less concerned about the near-term risk of war, and he said, China and Russia aren’t ready to fight because their modernization efforts have not been completed. He said any major conflict is unlikely for another 10 to 20 years from now.

He said “$24 billion a year for the next five years would be a good expenditure” to prepare the military for World War III.

RAND offers a sobering assessment that America could lose a multi-front war in the future, which is quite shocking considering that the US spent nearly three times as much as the second biggest war power, China, did in 2017.

With the defense budget stuck around $700 billion per annum for the remainder of President Trump’s term, America’s Warhawks are inciting fear through simulated wargames with one purpose only: demand more taxpayers’ money for war spending.

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Bob P
Bob P

Canada’s armed forces will help, contributing our entire navy (an obsolete ship or two) and air force (a few ancient F18 fighter jets) to the fray. So rest easy.

Marian
Marian

Has the US even had a budget for the pass decade? So what’s the fear campaign for exactly? Plus Russia/China blowing up the U.S. command seems rather liberating for the lucky remaining Yanks.

Donkey Balls
Donkey Balls

I wonder what percentage of the DOD budget goes towards weapons, maintenance and MILITARY training vs. everything else.

DD
DD

You look it up! [Keep in mind all the tens of thousands of dollars sent to doctors on my behalf are completely unfunded and unaccounted for… but, at least it gives you a place to start looking]

https://iava.org/blogs/budget-breakdown-2019-numbers-for-va-dod-and-what-they-mean/

LOL… Guess what? Not only was I a two-fer while in the service (sure, I was smart, but do you really think I was smarter than all the qualified men with thousands of flying hours? It was “time” to promote women into those positions, and NOW?)

It is “time” to take care of women veterans. It really is great to be part of a protected class.

“Last year, IAVA launched the #SheWhoBorneTheBattle campaign to address the barriers to care for women veterans and cultural change needed at VA. We are glad to see that the VA has integrated some Deborah Sampson Act provisions in the VA Budget’s Women Veterans Health Care 2018-2020 goals (pg. 182). In addition, to increase its health care services for the growing number of women veterans, the VA has allocated $511 million specifically for women veterans, a request that is 6% higher from 2018. “

DD
DD

I’m sure every TBPer will recognize the propaganda here. If you do not, get yourself to a nunnery. No wonder all the men want to be women!

https://iava.org/she-who-borne-the-battle/

TampaRed
TampaRed

db,
that’s a good question–
this reminds me of school budgets–ask 10 pols & bureaucrats what the per pupil expenditure is & get 12 different answers–
you can almost never get it broken out by what is spent on the buildings,buses,etc vs what goes into the classroom,and when you can it’s rarely broken out what is spent on average students vs the various kinds of special ed–
the actual amount spent on regular kids is probably far less than what is spent on private school kids–
the military budget seems to be the same–

Anonymous
Anonymous

Traditionally in the “real” wars (vs. wars of empire) the US is a slow starter and does get it ass kicked. We are not a warmongering people unlike are empire loving freak show elites. However, once roused the American people are quite effective and just as ruthless and vicious as any other group on earth if not more so. e.g. In WWII in the Pacific, the Marines just stopped taking prisoners for the most part after Guadalcanal…….but in our wars of empire since 9/11 the ROE and taking of prisoners trumped “winning”. No flame throwers though we have used some white phosphorous.

Now the somewhat scary question is that the US has always been protected by our oceans……but with the current state of technology for missiles and cyber attack, distance no longer matters as much. Will we have the time to get ready? Will there be some early battles to “learn” on? Kasserine Pass etc.

Think like a Chicom or Mad Vlad……your whole goal is to prevent the US from moving to a wartime footing and to take out our command and control immediately. Sorry boys and girls the USA will be a big part of the battlefield this time and time is getting short.

To stay in power the Chicoms have to continue the “economic miracle” which without a massive trade surplus with the US and the west more broadly they cannot do……thus the trade battle is an existential one and will not end peaceably…….similar to WWI. Russia is a one trick pony with oil and gas….but Putin knows he is vulnerable so will align with the Chinese, the effort to move Russia to the Western camp failed in 1998 during the emerging markets currency crisis.

I see various reports on the “readiness” of the Chicoms and Russians this article indicates 10-15 years…..2020 and later is probably the danger zone…….oddly just in time for own 4th Turning climax. Now I wonder if a 4th Turning has ever been both a domestic fight to the death and simultaneously a global fight to the death, HOLY CRAP!

Prusmc
Prusmc

Not to worry. Remember World War lll, Spring 1985 by Sir John Hacket. Started off bad but in end we prevailed.

Ivan
Ivan

wait a minute……doesn’t ww 12 come after ww 11

wdg
wdg

Another solution. All wars are bankers wars…so let’s get rid of central and fractional reserve banks, the most diabolical system of theft and war ever devised by mankind. In the case of the US, Kill the Fed and Free the People; become a limited Republic again. This will involve a massive purge at the highest level of all the gansters, crooks and war criminals who have taken over and subverted the US.

grace country pastor

Stop making sense.

1 Timothy 6:10 KJB… “For the love of money is the root of all evil: which while some coveted after, they have erred from the faith, and pierced themselves through with many sorrows.”

Ivan
Ivan

The only thing protecting the US are +30 million armed citizens.

Do not expect the homo/lesbo/transvestite military to defend the US.

Iska Waran
Iska Waran

We need to dissuade them from attacking. Have they seen our women? comment image

DD
DD
TampaRed
TampaRed

where are the women?

Gerold

Them’s women? Look like whales.

LibertyToad
LibertyToad

RE: “America’s Warhawks are inciting fear through simulated wargames with one purpose only: demand more taxpayers’ money for war spending.”

Huh? This directly contradicts the article. Pure genius.

Zulu Foxtrot Golf
Zulu Foxtrot Golf

Our simulation showed that the US Government needs to pay us $12billion to show them how to defeat the simulation. In other news, same shit, different day by a “strategic” pilfering think-tank.

AC
AC

What will solve this is obviously more diversity hires by the defense contractors of 85 IQ black ‘engineers,’ 15 million more illegal stupid brown people for the welfare rolls, and tax cuts for the 0.1%.

‘Merica.

MrLiberty
MrLiberty

Hey, its not like we truly get to pick our current overlords now.

Pequiste
Pequiste

Our gallant N.A.T.O. allies will help stem the Red Tide and ensure that U.S.S.A. prevails in a real shooting military conflict. That’s a foundational component of current strategic thinking in the West the author has omitted in reviewing the RAND analysis.

Well, won’t they?

I see our friends the Turks insisting on purchasing Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems against the wishes of the Puzzle Palace.
France and Germany are busy fighting Jihadis at home and have many thousands of Fifth Columnists just itching for the ballon to go up.
Events over in Blighty will probably include; Jeremy Corbin will have become the P.M., the BREXIT mess preventing normal operations of the Chunnel and Sadiq Khan, being Defence Minister, is adamant not to violate the consorting with Infidels rules of Koran and Hadith and declines to commit troops and resources to any conflict other than the liberation of Palestine.

Sweden will be too busy to engage in battle as their military establishment, a la “The Camp of The Saints”, will be occupied liquidating native Swedes to make room for replacement Africans and Muslims.

It will no doubt be a capital “C” Clusterfuck (sorry JHK) of legendary proportions when it – WW3 – finally does happen.

Stucky

An article in the NY Post this weekend detailed some on the INCREDIBLY wasteful military spending —- for example, spending $12 million on lobster tails.

USA vs Russia & China. Hmmmmm. Do we really need a fucken RAND War Game to tell us which side wins that battle??? Rand should stick to making maps and shit.

Pequiste
Pequiste

As long as it was Maine lobstah and not Florida spiney bug it’s O.K.

Harrington Richardson
Harrington Richardson

I liked Herman Cain’s idea. Few know he was an actual rocket scientist for the Navy. Cain said as President he would build hundreds or thousands of big dumb booster launch vehicles filled with tons of high explosives. If we needed to hit somebody, just drop a million pounds of TNT on their asses from the US. If someone were sending an invasion fleet, rain it down on them at sea. The problem for the MIC of course is that these missiles compared to other stuff are insanely inexpensive.

Wayne Tallaksen
Wayne Tallaksen

Bullshit! No One Wins (AKA) End of story!

robert h siddell jr
robert h siddell jr

Our war plans put an enemy’s Command and Control Communications (C3) Decapitation as a first priority also. As a Communication Officer, I always felt our C3 was weak, especially after Jimmy Carter had purposely mangled our procedures to make any nuclear response to a surprise attack nearly impossible. A destructive EMP is real, and way to much of our stuff is dependent on computers and electronic links. We spend about $75B per year just on “Food Stamps”; $25B per year to fix our C3 problems would be cheap and show some intelligence, but we can’t have that in Progressive America …If you think war games like this are just run by corporate pitchmen for MIC profits, enjoy your bliss.

QQQBall
QQQBall

We obviously need to double the military budget.
s/

Shinmen Takezo
Shinmen Takezo

Most of the fist pumping, “Murica’ shouting, flag waving militards cannot conceive the USA losing any kind of war. If the results in Afghanistan, Iraq and far back as Vietnam are any indicator–we are fucked.

Most present day militards and flag wavers think in terms of Iwo Jima, D-Day and WWII… with masses of troops lined up, with fleets of battle groups and tank battles like Kursk and they believe it will all unfold like it did back in the 1940’s.

Not so. Not going to happen.
In fact, it will be impossible to recreate.
There will be no massive buildups of the “Arsenal of Democracy.”
No lines of young men eagerly waiting to enlist wishing to defend their country.

No–not going to happen this time.

In fact WWIII will take place in a matter of days.
If will unfold quickly with nuclear weapons.
Gone will be the aircraft battle groups within the first hours of war.
Poof! Flash! All gone.

Gone will be the foward NATO bases and in fact most foreign bases.
Poof! Flash!
Gone will go our staging bases in the USA in the first hours of the war.
Poof! Flash!

There will be no buildup of troops massing for invasions.
There will be no tank battles.
There will be no mass landing on foreign soil.
Anything of military value will be destroyed or crippled in the first hours or few days.
Poof! Flash!

WWIII will be over within a week.
The USA will sue for peace upon looking at the massive losses and casualties.

Our current military is built for beating up on lesser nations that cannot defend themselves.
And they are used solely for enforcing the US dollar tyranny.

Wrap your skulls around it please.

4th Turner

Well, screw the RAND Corp! US needs to divest from them and invest in the folks that make the automated AI driven WOPR! Check out these 5 minutes:

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