The Sine Wave of History

Guest Post by Jeff Thomas

Almost daily, someone (often a European or North American) comments to me that the world is falling apart. The government is becoming dictatorial, the people are becoming more socialistic and political correctness is no longer an option, it’s a mandate and you’d better get on board.

This trend is not by any means imagined, but it would be incorrect to say that “the world is falling apart.” If we spend time travelling the world, what we see is that parts of it (primarily the former “free world”) is unquestionably in a state of political, economic, social and moral decline.

The good news is that many other parts of the world are impacted less; others are hardly affected at all and, in still other cases, countries are thriving.

What’s often missed, due to myopia, is that, in any era, there are always some countries that are burning out at the same time as others are on the rise.

Cultures and nations pass through cycles, much like the sine waves above. Any nation that undergoes a social, political and economic collapse ends up hitting the skids and staying there for a while. Often, the spoiled, complacent generation is unable to affect a recovery. However, the next generation learns to recognize that the only way that they can move ahead is to get out and work. Be ambitious, be self-reliant, act responsibly and, eventually, you’ll improve your life.

The next generation has this example to build upon and generally takes it to the next level, operating on the same principles. However, after several (possibly many) generations of this, prosperity is great enough that the next generation doesn’t have to work as hard. Their parents hand them enough that they can largely cruise through life. (This turning point occurred in Europe and North America in the 1960’s.)

At that point, politicians, who tend to be good at reading the mood of the populace, begin promising ever-greater entitlements – thus assuring the complacent generation that, not only do they not have to work hard, the very suggestion of hard work and self-reliance is unfair.

Another generation or two downstream and the decline has morphed into an apathetic, whining generation that wants to be told that it’s possible for everything to be free and that anyone who suggests otherwise needs to be punished for their thoughts. (Sound familiar?)

This overall abandonment of responsibility (egged on by political leaders) invariably results in political, economic, social and moral decline, ending in collapse.

This natural cycle is illustrated in the sine waves above. Most countries are like the blue sine wave. The amplitude is moderate – the country doesn’t rise to a great height in terms of prosperity, but then, it also doesn’t sink to great lows. On the other hand, the most dominant countries (and empires) are more like the red sine wave – they rise to a great height, but when they fall, the amplitude of the fall is equal to that of the rise.

At any time in history, some countries are on the way up; some are on the way down. I personally grew up in the 50’s and 60’s, a time when the “free world” (the UK, US, Canada, Australia, etc.) was riding high. All of these nations are now in decline and, as the reader may have noticed, that decline is becoming increasingly rapid.

Back then, countries like Russia, China and Cuba were heavily in a state of socialistic decline. They’ve since bottomed and are now experiencing their rebirth. Each one is expanding into more of a free-market country. Each is experiencing greater prosperity and the people of those countries understand that the way forward is hard work, tenacity and self-reliance.

Looking back at the image above, an interesting aspect is that, in addition to the amplitudes of the red and blue waves being different, their rise and fall are independent of each other. Each begins its fall at a different time from the other and, consequently, their eventual rise also begins at a different point.

As we know, the former “free world” countries have been closely linked for generations and so it shouldn’t be at all surprising that they’re timing is roughly the same with regard to their decline.

So, what if we consider that there are roughly two hundred countries out there and that many are only peripherally connected to those countries and others are hardly impacted by them at all? What we’d see, if we could draw all their sine waves on the above chart, would be that, at any time in history, there would be some countries, large and small, that are beginning their upward cycle (as was, say, the US in the first half of the 19th century); others are becoming highly productive (as was the US in the first half of the 20th century); some have turned the corner (as the US did in the latter part of the 20th century), and some are speeding up in the decline and nearing collapse (as is the US presently).

And, of course, our attention tends to be focused on the US first, as it’s presently the world’s foremost empire and is well along in its roller coaster ride to the bottom. But, along with it, we see the UK, Europe, Canada, etc. tied to the coattails of the US and also along for the ride.

So, does this spell doom for us all? Well, the first part of the answer is that, historically, once the downward stage of the cycle has begun, it almost never reverses. That being the case it would be foolish indeed to imagine that our own country (whatever it might be) will be the first ever to magically reverse and go into premature recovery mode.

(As the old truism goes, an alcoholic must hit bottom before he can begin recovery. The same has been true for nations for thousands of years.)

But there’s a second half to the answer, which is that, if we do an analysis of the many other nations in the world, we find that, at any moment in time, there are those that are on the rise. Some, in fact, are just beginning their rise and some are further along. If we’re pioneering by nature, we may be interested in one that’s just beginning its rebirth. If we’re seeking more creature comforts, we might pick one that’s further along on its upward trajectory, but still has a fair way to go before peaking.

Interestingly, this is all roughly measurable. For example, only a quarter century ago, Cuba was at rock bottom – socially, economically and politically. Life was far from “free.” Whenever I was there during that period, Cubans would criticize the ever-declining conditions, but, when they did, they’d first look around to see who might be listening. Today, Cuba is being quietly reborn. Prosperity is increasing, the free market is growing annually and, for the first time in decades, people do not always look around first before offering a criticism. The “fear” stage is giving up the ghost.

And, a quarter century ago, if I visited the US, people were generally buoyant, but had already become “concerned.” Still, if they had a criticism of conditions, they spoke out without any fear whatever. Today, those same people are quite a bit more worried about the political, social, economic and moral decline. And, tellingly, for the first time, political correctness is no longer an option, it’s a mandate and you’d better get on board. Those accused of an infraction of political correctness are often made to publicly apologise (whether they mean it or not). Some are ostracized. Some are fired from their jobs. Some are attacked in the courts.

And, for the first time, if someone criticizes the direction the country has taken, they may look around first to see who might be listening.

This is very telling, because, just as we can see in the sine waves above, there’s a point at which a formerly great country headed inexorably downward passes another country that’s headed upward. As difficult as it may be to imagine, that’s exactly what’s happened between the US and Cuba.

What this means is that, in ten years, it’s entirely possible that Cuba will be a demonstrably freer place to live than the US.

So, again, if we reside in one of the declining countries, are we doomed? Well, no, not at all. In looking at the bigger picture, what we see is that we’re by no means locked in where we are. As “ships pass in the night”, we have the choice to leave one and board another. It’s too early yet, for Cuba, but there are many other countries that are further along on their upward trajectory. They offer a far more positive future than those that no longer qualify for the appellation, “free world.”

Pack a bag. Get on a plane. Go to a few places you’ve never been that, for whatever reason, seem more attractive. But, in making your selections, choose those that are blossoming rather than those that are withering on the vine.

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Stucky

When a million OTHER people get cancer, that’s just a statistic. When YOU get cancer, then it’s a tragedy.

Likewise, most Americans act as if America IS the world. That if the USA!USA!USA! goes down, then humanity will also perish. Of course, this is pure bullshit. Bhutan will still be the happiest place on earth.

Just because America comes to an “end” does not mean that America ceases to exist. Many fallen empires have experienced revival. A crash means the end of free shit, an end of free shit means millions of free shitters will die, and their blood will fertilize a newer, better, whiter America.

(I probably should have left out the “whiter” part … but, I want bb and Dutchman to give me an up vote.)

BB
BB

Well Stucky ,It worked . I gave you 2 thumbs up . God bless you. I see you are finally getting it. I hope the other 199.999 million whites get it but I have my doubts.

It just that I have grievances that really sucks. I think about the sacrifices that have been made just in my family and then the other families that have lost sons or fathers or grandparents. It bugs me that so many people don’t give a damn. It’s like whites have pissed away our / their inheritance right along with our country . After America falls economically it is over for us. I see only civil strife of every kind coming our way. And when the electric grid goes down it will be hell on Earth .So yes I’m disgusted and some what frightened.
We have been betrayed and sold out by other white people. I guess that bugs me the most.

Stucky

“We have been betrayed and sold out by other white people.”

Amen, and AMEN!!! +100, brother.

Libtard white fuckers …. there’s your main enemy (or, at least in the Top 3).

Anonymous
Anonymous

Or, should we be praying for the next Big Volcano?

455KC IF
455KC IF

Stucky, maybe 2nd place ain’t so bad after all.

Diogenes’ Dung
Diogenes’ Dung

In the 1960’s, the middle class reached its apogee in United Shithole Association.

The 70’s still offered a decent life for one-earner families (stay at home Moms) until the OPEC oil embargo gob-smacked us where we lived. In cars, commuting.

Before the 80’s were over, everybody knew the “American Dream” was over. Traded for cheap imports and high profit margins for importers.

The 90’s saw our best and brightest head for Wall Street to earn money the old-fashion way. Front-running clients.

Now, in the New Century, same ole’, same ole’ is all we can expect, if history is any guide. Extinguish the middle class and before you know it, nobody has any class.

The current State of the Union is no unity at all, except a shared, declining standard of living, and the contempt of every other nation.

455KC IF
455KC IF

A shorter explanation: sometime in the ’70s or ’80s the US shifted from a manufacturing economy to a service economy.

An auto worker’s job supported 2-3 other jobs in his community and elsewhere along the supply chain.

How many additional jobs are supported by a teacher? Or-worse yet-by a community organizer?

Stucky

“How many additional jobs are supported by a …… community organizer?”

1. Copfuks
2. Judge
3. Lawyers
4. Bail Bondsman
5. Jailer

That’s 5 right there. There are surely more.

455KC IF
455KC IF

Should have inserted “productive” right before “jobs”.

My bad.

Iconoclast421

No, the world really is falling apart. Like you have no idea. It is partly masked by technological progress and a shale boom, but the shit is still piling up on the fan. We are five years away from an absolute fucking FLOOD at the southern border. I’m talking about armies of hundreds of thousands, all allowed in all allowed free unfettered access to your wallet. It’s fucking over. When productive people start throwing in the towel, this shit will fall apart faster than you could imagine. $35 trillion national debt by 2024 is a conservative estimate. It could very well be $50 trillion. Yes, that is an across-the-board doubling of prices, and that’s assuming you don’t have even bigger problems to worry about than inflation. Batshit crazy shit is coming. People are going to be flying planes into dams, shit like that, shit that causes incalculable devastation… cuz why not? It’s fucking over. They’ve taken this country. Hundreds even thousands of people are going to say “fuck it, I’d rather no one have my shit than give it to them.” This is coming, no force of tyranny can stop it.

Donkey Balls
Donkey Balls

Holy shit, Icon,

GET OFF THE LEDGE!!!

Stucky

“When productive people start throwing in the towel, this shit will fall apart faster than you could imagine. ”

Excellent point.

Keep New York City in mind in that regard. Governor Cuomo the Homo and NY just passed their HUGE budget for the next fiscal year. Lots of free shit and ……… TONS of New Taxes, like you wouldn’t believe.

For weeks now the NY Post has been saying that if this latest budget gets passed that it will mark the beginning of the Great Exodus. We’re not talking the middle class and poor either. We’re talking about the rich and all their money. NY (and NYC) are already near insolvency with all their freebies and enormous pension obligations. An exodus of actual taxpayers will devastate the city and state. Personally, I can’t wait to see that happen.

yahsure
yahsure

When the solar minimum kicks in going south will be a good idea. Oops, there’s a big wall stopping us! Maybe fresh blood is needed. All the white folks have decided having kids is an inconvenience. Shit changes.

Harvey Goldbergblattsteinman

The irony is that the collapse of western prosperity will drive out a mountain of undesirable (browner) elements that previous, selfish generations let in.

BB
BB

421 , you nailed it. In 5 years or less a flood of Third world bottom feeders is headed our way. This is all planned. . Many will be young men of military age which I think will be used against white Americans who refuse to give up our second amendment rights. It’s planned genocide of anyone who doesn’t play along with their New World Order. It’s been proven that most are reluctant to hurt or mass kill members of their own race where other races are more willing to kill and slaughter . These brown people will be used if history repeats itself . They have to get rid of white people . We are the only ones standing against this new world Order or world government. My Bible tells me it’s going to happen. They will achieve their World Luciferian Government. It will be Satanic to the core. Read what has been written by various Occult members in the secret societies. They tell us what they are doing.

Anonymous
Anonymous

Time to start digging tunnels?

Anonymous
Anonymous

Yeah, round here, we can see what is trending. The oblivious ones who can’t see it, deny it, or doubt it will be devastated, if they’re not preparing in some way for it. How to hunker down and prepare is known by a scant few, outside of visitors to websites like this one that see and spread the news that the writing is on the wall.
Let’s repeat the obvious.
We’ve seen what’s been trending progressively worse the last XX years.
WHAT’s all going to happen at some future time is somewhat predictable, with minor variables.
The tough part is WHEN. My take is, after the 2020 election results come in. Either way, the pace picks up.

I’m guessing that if Donny two-faced pulls out another 4 year term, we might delay the inevitable a few years more, but still, better than half the population will go to a higher level of anxious-crazy immediately.

But if the Progrard Left Socialist FSA advocate pulls out the victory, then we’ll know the corpulent dame is humming her Me-me-me’s, and getting ready to sing.
That victory will have the tards dancing in the streets, instead of going into the fetal position, and to more Antifa rallies if 2-faced wins.

Tell ya what. Llpoh and Jimmy Torpedo were ahead of the game, in hopping continents and setting up camp elsewhere. On that, I think Jeff Thomas and Doug Casey will be proven correct. There’s still time, but that window is closing fast. The ones who escaped Germany in the early 30’s didn’t wait until it was too late, and they had a few small pieces of insurance barter to use, if an obstacle to their escape appeared. But they got out. We don’t hear too much about the Yugoslavians who got out before the SHTF there. It got FUGLY.
And it lasted a long time.

For those who can’t or won’t entertain escape as a possibility, then hunkering down it shall be.
I trust the ones in that camp will have plenty of resources and preparation, with many numbers of like minded to circle the wagons with you.
Hell, if I wait too long, and cannot exit when martial law is upon us, I might come calling, and ask to join.
Skills, talents, knowledge, loyalty, and some provisions will be offered, in return for trust and inclusion.
Start thinking about the screening test one would have to pass, for y’all to even consider it.
Don’t be so quick to dismiss or God forbid, shoot other patriots, or whatever you want to call them.
Numbers. There is strength in numbers, preppers. Re-read what the Yugo had to say about that.

But damn. Those warmer climate smaller countries that are laid back, peaceful, and near the Caribbean sure tickle ones imagination as an escape destination. Right, Jimmy? Plenty of expats would agree.

TJF
TJF

Somehow, I thought when I read the comments to this one, I would see which counties people think are on the rise and worth considering, but instead just a bunch of people talking about how the US is in decline.

I liked the article, but noticed it did not provide examples (other than Cuba) of which places may be on the rise. I guess he also mentioned Russia and China. None of those are places I want to live.

Where is the real life Galt’s Gulch type place I can go to and just ride it out?

Anonymous
Anonymous

I will point you to two resources, TJF.
International Living has a free email that teases with brief reports from expats, but I.L. is always trying to sell you a subscription to their magazine, or to workshops they routinely offer on the charms of various locales outside of the States. Probably worth the investment, tho.
Sovereign Man is a paid subscription newsletter, possibly still linked to Casey Research.
-Those are just 2 of a few places to get started. Research. Take trips. Visit and judge for yourself. That’s all part of pre-planning, if that’s your focus. Good Luck. And, share your discoveries.

SmallerGovNow
SmallerGovNow

Comparing Cuba and the USSA is retarded… Chip

SmallerGovNow
SmallerGovNow

And China on their way up? 20 trillion MORE in debt just since 2008 (I think $37 trillion total now). It took us over 200 years to get that far into debt. What other country is rising? NONE on the African continent and NONE on the entire American hemisphere. NONE in Europe. Asia? Where the fuck do you think you’re going to go? Better make the best stand you can make right where you’re at… Chip

daniel
daniel

2017 gdp of cuba: $97B
2017 pop. of cuba: 11+ million

2017 gdp of denver: $209B
2017 pop. of denver: <3 million

on the 'up and up' indeed.

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