Ebola 2019 Update

Via The Raconteur Report

Go over to Bayou Renaissance Man, and read Peter’s summary of the situation in DRC today.

I have nothing to add that would improve on that.

Which is a relief, frankly, because I really didn’t want to have to go fishing in the cesspool for this update.

This thing is coming around again, TPTB are no smarter, and no better prepared, and the question is not whether, it’s when and where.

The first city in North America to get one active case will be Dallas 2014 Redux.

Set your wayback machine for that episode, refresh your memory, and plan accordingly.

If anyone gets a dozen cases or more, cancel Christmas, and put your affairs in order.

Ain’t no one who can handle as many as 12 cases at once in all of North America, short of concertina wire barricades, full medieval quarantines, and martial law.

And at that point, “care” is palliative care, i.e. Hospice, for those who are going to die.

Things are still fairly small in the grand scheme, but this thing is inexorably headed for liftoff.

I said the same thing in 2014, at about the same time of year.

By fall, it wasn’t a prediction, it was a prophecy fulfilled.

Africa is the birthplace of stupid.

You’ve been seeing that there for several months; soon, you’re going to see the consequences elsewhere of that problem. Probably including here.

As Kim DuToit said way back in 2002 (and probably many times before and since), “Africa Wins Again.”

That’s not a good thing.

Run for the hills? Hell, no.

Be ready to cope with not just a pandemic, but the second-, third- and fourth-order consequences of a pandemic? Hell, yes.

Oh, and FTR, “hoping it doesn’t happen” is not a plan.

And you aren’t going to “treat” anyone in your clan who gets this, unless by “treat” you mean “ensure that everyone else in the family dies a slow, agonizing death too.”

You either avoid this, or it slays you, and stomps a mudhole in your family.

There is no third option.

Tick tock, boys and girls.

Q.: Have the “authorities” identified the host species (other than humans and I use humans loosely here) yet?

A.: We have no wild idea where or from what species Ebola sprung, resides, or spreads, other than people once there’s an outbreak.

We suspect bats, but there’s zero empirical evidence of this.
Humans are a target species, not so much the host species.
We do have the capacity to spread the disease once it’s acquired, and thus far, every “survivor” of the disease tests positive for the disease as far out as we’ve re-checked, AFAIK.
IOW, it never goes away, and re-infection and subsequent outbreaks may be spawned by “survivors” from prior outbreaks.

Cheery thought, huh?

Q.:  While total cases have increased the percentage of deaths per total cases have remained the same. What can we make of that?

A.: A couple of things.

1) WHO and Wikipedia can’t do math.
The dead are not percentage  of dead now vs. total current cases.
because the disease incubates for 2-40+ days, and takes about 21 days, on average, from acquisition to mortality.
If you take the number of cases from 21 days ago, and number of deaths now, you’ll get the actual mortality percentage of this disease.
Doing it the way WHO/Wikipedia does makes it look less lethal.
Why do they do this, knowing it’s wrong?
2) WHO and Wikipedia are trying to stem panic and put lipstick on the pig.
3) The disease kills a pretty static percentage, between the high sixties and low eighties.*
Roughly, 8 out of 10 people who get it will die outright, and the 2 out of 10 who don’t will almost always be lifelong victims of Ebola Virus Syndrome, with blindness and other problems being a virtual certainty over time. And they’ll be contagious carriers pretty much for life (blood, semen, breast milk, vaginal secretions, etc.). Good times.

In short, surviving it is only slightly better than dying from it.

*(Bear well in mind this is among Africans, with medieval sanitation, room temperature IQs, lousy health and health care – if any at all, and abysmal nutrition, already debilitated with malnutrition, malaria, dengue fever, parasitic and fungal infections, TB, and about 100 other problems last seen as widespread in the West prior to 1850 A.D., i.e prior to vaccinations, germ theory, and Florence Nightingale levels of basic sanitation.To find a representative population here like that, you’d have to sample the homeless. Now, imagine Ebola gets here, and gets to the homeless population…

Welcome to Zimbabwe/Ebolaville U.S.A.)

Q.: What role can the experimental vaccine play in these proceedings?

A.: By all accounts, Merck’s invention, rVSV-ZEBOV, has shown a 97.5% effectiveness in this outbreak, i.e. nearly no one who’s been vaccinated with it has subsequently gotten Ebola during this outbreak. To date, over 100,000 people in DRC have been vaccinated.

That, and that alone, is the reason this outbreak stands at 1600+ cases, and nearly 1000 deaths, rather than 10-20 times those numbers by this point in time.

Stockpiles will eventually be exhausted, as stupidity in DRC is outpacing ability to produce enough vaccine to contain the spread.

I have no idea what Merck’s lead-time is for vaccine, nor how much they could produce and distribute, should  Ebola arrive (or when it actually does) in the West (London, Paris, NYFC, etc.).

I suspect that answer would (and will) lead to riots, once it’s no longer merely an academic inquiry.

Creating your own defensible Ebola-free quarantine space, OTOH, will be 100% effective.

Concertina wire should be on your shopping list.

And possibly a small supply of wine bottles full of high-octane for emergency field decontamination operations.

I hope that answers the questions regarding this outbreak adequately.

Short of this thing escaping containment, I’m unlikely to look at it further this side of June.
If you’ve got further questions, ask it in comments to this post.
Even if I’ve posted the answer 50 times before, I’ll probably cover the ground again.
And remember, just like my drill instructor said,
“There are NO stupid questions, there are only stupid people.”
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12 Comments
Grog
Grog
May 6, 2019 10:38 am

Ever notice how Ebola and Obama almost rhyme?

Anonymous
Anonymous
  Grog
May 6, 2019 4:24 pm

Though, only one of them has made Rahm Emanual bleed out of his asshole.

Mygirl...maybe
Mygirl...maybe
May 6, 2019 10:40 am

Ordinarily I’d call fear mongering except for…..the open southern border and Laredo, Texas where Africans are crossing over and the ones caught are being monitored for Ebola. Ebola incubates for a period of 21 to 40 days and half infected don’t have a fever. The not caught Africans are where exactly? /

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-16/african-migrants-texas-border-monitored-ebola-official

Iconoclast421
Iconoclast421
  Mygirl...maybe
May 6, 2019 4:17 pm

I don’t see it being an issue. Anyone with enough resource to make a border run is not going to be exposed to ebola.

Mygirl...maybe
Mygirl...maybe
  Iconoclast421
May 6, 2019 6:29 pm

That’s very naive thinking. Remember the last ebola scare? How many people ran away and how many were infected when they did run away?

Bob P
Bob P
May 6, 2019 12:02 pm

Should Ebola arrive on our shores I assume all anti-vaxxers will exclude themselves from the evil vaccine, right?

Mygirl...maybe
Mygirl...maybe
  Bob P
May 6, 2019 12:47 pm

Avoid the ebola vaccine? The former USA would never need such a vaccine were the borders not so porous and…we have indoor plumbing, we don’t kill people trying to help us, the averiage IQ is above 68 and the vaccines aren’t made in India or China, where most come from these days. You like your formaldehyde and mercury injections?

TeresaE
TeresaE
  Bob P
May 7, 2019 5:12 am

So glad you’re volunteering for the beta test.
I’m not worried one iota, one second, and when they make it mandatory, thus insuring our freedom by violating my body, i am grateful to understand the rules of manufacturing and distribution, I know I can wait it out.

Diogenes’ Dung
Diogenes’ Dung
May 6, 2019 12:31 pm

“Africa is the birthplace of stupid.”

Why did we import/adopt A-Frican stupidity in such great quantities? Inseminating our nation to birth a crucible for cretins?”

Dutchman
Dutchman
May 6, 2019 3:08 pm

Ebola – God’s solution to Africa.

yahsure
yahsure
May 6, 2019 9:37 pm

Kids bring home presents! They share whatever plague the school currently has. So a place for family members to avoid if things turn south. No contact would be the answer.

TeresaE
TeresaE
May 7, 2019 5:09 am

Vitamin C, in mass doses, can fight the virus, most viruses.
Mother Earth has ways to heal, we refuse it and think there is health in synthetic, toxic, chemicals.
I do not fear any of these illnesses, I know my family will be fine.
Fear mongering is the easiest way to get us to help the PTB kill us off faster.