Chaos of Weather Record Heat Wave Coming – Fraud of Linear Predictions

Guest Post by Martin Armstrong

This weekend the forecasts are calling for a blistering, dangerous heat wave which is poised to scorch the southeastern U.S. over the Memorial Day weekend. I warned that our computer was showing a sharp increase in volatility in the weather. The winters would spike to new record lows and then the summers would spike to scorching highs. Once again, this is not my personal opinion. If you simply input the data this is what comes up – patterns.

The pro-Global Warming crowd love to send me hate-mail arguing I am not a meteorologist. I reply, neither is Al Gore – the father of Global Warming nonsense. There is far more hidden order to weather and collecting data since only 1850, manipulating it to pretend there is a linear trend and then claim the world will end in 12 years like AOC, begs a lot of question. Why do we need social programs? Stop all taxes including Social Security and let everyone enjoy life while they have it. Kids should drop out of school and enjoy life rather than get degrees they will never use. Why investigate Trump if there will be no presidency in 12 years? Nobody really believes stopping air traffic and driving cars will save the world in 12 years.

LorenzeThe linear analysis of weather used by the Global Warming crowd is complete nonsense and it threatens our way of life along with our future. During the 1950s, Edward N. Lorenz (1917-2008) observed that there was a cyclical non-linear nature to weather, yet the field relied upon linear statistical models in meteorology to do weather forecasting. Lorenz became the father of Chaos Theory. He was an American mathematician and meteorologist. Lorenz was certainly THE pioneer in Chaos Theory. A professor at MIT, Lorenz was the first to recognize what is now called chaotic behavior in the mathematical modeling of weather systems. It was like trying to measure the circumference of a circle with a straight edge ruler. His work on the topic culminated in the publication of his 1963 paper “Deterministic Non-periodic Flow” in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, and with it, the foundation of chaos theory.

During the early 1960s, Lorenz had access to early computers. He was running what he thought would be random numbers and began to observe there was a duality of a hidden repetitive nature. He graphed the numbers that were derived from his study of convection rolls in the atmosphere. What emerged has been perhaps one of the most important discoveries in modern time.

LORENZ (3)This illustration of the Lorenz Strange Attractor is incredibly important and was first reported in 1963. Lorenz’s discovery of a strange attractor was made during an attempt to create a model of weather patterns. The actual experiment was an attempt to model the atmospheric dynamics of the planet. It involved a truncated model of the Navier-Stokes equations. It is a visual example of a non-linear dynamic system corresponding to the long-term behavior in a cyclical manner revealing a hidden order we cannot otherwise observe.

The Lorenz Strange Attractor is a three-dimensional dynamical system that exhibits chaotic flow, noted for its interesting shape revolving around two invisible strange points in space-time we call Strange Attractors. The map shows how the state of a dynamic system with three variables of a three-dimensional system evolves over the fourth dimension (time) in a complex, yet non-repeating pattern. In other words, here is a visualization of duality – what appears to be randomness (chaos) simultaneously contains a broader clear pattern of order. The same identical structure appears in the light where it is both a waveform and particle, as we see in the economy where we retain our individuality yet at the same time we are part of a broader collective pattern. This is the very essence of the Invisible Hand – or in Lorenz terms, a Strange Attractor.

Therefore, Chaos Theory is a field of study in mathematics with applications in several disciplines including meteorology, physics, engineering, economics, biology, and philosophy. Chaos theory investigates the behavior of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions and subtle changes in the input can create a drastic alternative in the outcome. This has been explained as the “effect,” which is popularly referred to as the butterfly effect. Slight differences in initial conditions yield widely diverging outcomes for such dynamical systems, rendering long-term prediction impossible in general without comprehending dynamic analysis that is cyclical based.

The chaos that appears is complex, yet it masks a hidden order beneath. The complexity of variables creates the illusion that these systems are unpredictable yet they can be extremely deterministic when viewed correctly. The future behavior of such systems is entirely determined by their initial conditions, with no random elements involved whatsoever. In other words, the deterministic nature of these systems allows them to be predictable when approached objectively by a computer eliminating the randomness of human judgment. This type of behavior is best described as Deterministic Chaos.

This fascinating dimension was summarised by Edward Lorenz as follows:

“Chaos: When the present determines the future, but the approximate present does not approximately determine the future.”

This extraordinary complexity that created the surface impression of chaos hides amazing order below. Chaotic behavior can be observed in many natural systems, from such things as weather to economics. Our problem has been mankind’s attempt to reduce everything he sees to simple-minded one-dimensional cause and effect. This type of explanation of such behavior has restrained our ability to move forward in many fields, the least of which is not social science including economics.

Deterministic Chaos may be the key to everything for within both nature and our social world, we are surrounded with complexity yet we try to rationalize everything to a single dimension and are unable to cope with the dynamics of the world in which we live.

Of course, Larry Summers admitted that economists cannot forecast the future because it is complex like the weather systems. We are positioned to perhaps break records that date back to the 1800s this summer.

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BSHJ
BSHJ

Go ahead….try ‘splainin all that in 30 seconds or less on the MSM or to AOC and her followers (the Al Gore crowd)

Nope, easier to say (and believe) that since it is hotter today, must be globull warming everywhere forever.

KaD
KaD

Purgatory ski resort in Colorado is open this weekend after getting 8 inches of snow. https://unofficialnetworks.com/2019/05/21/purgatory-reopens-memorial-day-weekend/

Hardscrabble Farmer
Hardscrabble Farmer

All I know is that the people who appear to be the most concerned about it never seem to alter their own behavior.

How that red flag escapes unnoticed is a riddle for the ages.

StackingStock
StackingStock

According to my backyard weather station we hit an new high temperature today at 101,last high was 99 and that was September last year. I was going to mow and trim the backyard, it’s hot as balls outside.

Carry on and arm up.

brewer55
brewer55

I’m betting you are in central or south Georgia.

StackingStock
StackingStock

Nah not south Georgia, I like my wine and women free.

deplorably stanley
deplorably stanley

66 degrees here and the heat of the day is waning.

robert h siddell jr
robert h siddell jr

There is a relationship between the Earth’s Magnetic Fields and the Polar Jet Streams. When the magnetic field weakens, the Polar Jet Stream is not as confined to the North and begins to wander South, taking cold down with it (like the Polar Vortex slamming Chicago, or snow in Mexico, or rains of the Century in the West) and then bringing warm moist air way back North on it’s upward travel (hello the repeating NE Snow Storms). The Earth’s Magnetic Field is reversing (weakening for now) so the Polar Jet Stream should get much wilder in it’s swings South and North.

Diogenes’ Dung
Diogenes’ Dung

Hole’ooooon, Padnah, reversal is a ways off.

Right now, True (magnetic) North is just skedadlin’ towards Siberia at an ever-increasing pace, screwing up GPS faster than anyone thought possible.

Pole Reversal is a whole different ballgame. Played in the dark. When it happens, your local topography maps (elevation delineation) will be worthless.

e.d. ott
e.d. ott

There is, of course, a relationship between the Earth’s magnetic poles and the axis of rotation. The Earth has a wobble, or precession that affects the seasons. If the rotational axis changes, the seasons and weather will affect different geographical areas as the jet stream and high/low pressure waves interact. This is why unseasonal weather is being felt in places that have never experienced it.

robert h siddell jr
robert h siddell jr

Gonna take something REALLY BIG to change the Earth’s angular momentum and spin position.

Anonymous
Anonymous

This article is idiotic. How about this, math genius. NOBODY under the age of 32 (406 months in a row) has seen a month that was cooler than the historic average for that month. Thirty Two YEARS.

here from Wisconsin
here from Wisconsin

Checking in from Wisconsin, we had several months in a row below the historic average this past year. This entire spring has been brutal, wet, and very late. I checked every day to complain about it to my wife: we were 10-15 degrees below average temps for weeks on end.

MSyzlak
MSyzlak

Go back to your overheating, overheated fantasy world. Yours is perhaps the dumbest comment I’ve ever seen posted here … and I’ve seen some doozies.

Ken
Ken

It’s hotter than a fresh fucked fox in a forest fire.

Diogenes’ Dung
Diogenes’ Dung

Hotter’n a peck of pickled peckers plowing a pyroclastic pussy.

Pequiste
Pequiste

I cannot follow the advanced math or the bullshit from the politicians so I will stick to the always better weather warning when the messenger is the likes of Marilyn Monroe:

And that certainly is no “Strange Attractor”.

e.d. ott
e.d. ott

Advanced math can provide a great solution but needs a practical application. If you can’t dazzle people with brilliance, baffle them with bullshit.

robert h siddell jr
robert h siddell jr

And get a Nobel Prize like Al Gore; Useful Idiots are going to feel really stupid when the Truth sinks in.

randy from the andes
randy from the andes

it is weather warfare, they are pushing people into the mega regions. that no one believes it, is the real issue. People believe that we landed on the moon. believe we split the atom. But weather control, even if imperfect is not possible. I have followed Armstrong for many years and no one earns half a billion dollars without selling out. We have been under attack for quite a while, look forward to a red hot summer in the bread basket and more fires. the wars people cheered are now coming to a city near you.

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