Five reasons Trump won’t win in 2020

The Trump derangement syndrome is strong in this screed. This guy hates Trump with a passion. He uses the same discredited pollsters who gave Crooked Hillary a 99% chance of victory in 2016 as his proof. Absolutely no one can predict the 2020 outcome with any semblance of certainty. It will mostly depend on the economy in November 2020.

Guest Post by Tim Mullaney

Say one thing for senior citizenhood, as my own approacheth: You have time on your hands. Witness the crowd waiting for hours Tuesday outside Orlando’s Amway Center in the rain to hear a 76-minute speech containing nary a coherent thought. By a president who will lose the re-election campaign he kicked off last night.

There. I said it. And, yes, I did refer to “President Hillary Clinton” in 2016, when I was ready to call that race.

But I’ve got five reasons why Donald Trump is going to Florida for good in 2021. If you think they’re wrong, tell me why at @timmullaney on Twitter, or in the comments. If you cite 2016, remember Trump lost the popular vote by 2.9 million — and see the second reason, below.

1. Everybody has already made up their mind about Trump — and his numbers stink

Right now, Trump’s net approval rating is minus 8.5 percentage points in the RealClear Politics polling average. Fivethirtyeight.com says it’s minus 10, as 53% disapprove, 43% approve and 4% won’t say. That spread was first “achieved” in March 2017. Trump hasn’t narrowed it below nine since, Fivethirtyeight says.

In other words, no one’s changing their minds about Trump. About 40% of us like his act, if only to “own the libs.” Everyone else? Nope.

2. His state numbers are just as bad

Oh, but the Electoral College! says Twitter, where confident young people educate me about their hero’s resilience in Midwestern battlegrounds where he snatched victory from popular-vote defeat in 2016. Thanks for that. Really.

Like, in Michigan, where Morning Consult puts Trump’s net approval at minus 12? Trump’s Michigan numbers haven’t been green in 26 months. Morning Consult says he’s doing two points worse than in October, before Republicans lost two House seats there and the governorship.

Trump’s polling in Wisconsin? He’s minus 13. In Iowa, minus 12, and his party lost two of its three House seats.

In Pennsylvania, birthplace of former Vice President and possible 2020 rival Joe Biden, Trump is minus 7, a point worse than last fall. Democrats won the generic House vote in Pennsylvania by 10 points.

Just on those four, Trump’s 306 2016 electoral votes fall to 254 (270 needed to win) and it’s over. But as many as 215 Trump electoral votes could be in play, based on state-by-state polls.

Yes, early polling isn’t great on head-to-head matchups. But the relationship between late-first-term presidential approval and re-election prospects is pretty close — if it changes, an intervening recession, war or economic boom explains why. This brings us to….

3. Trump isn’t getting credit for the economy — and he won’t, either

When the unemployment rate goes to 3.6% from 10%, the guy who came along at 4.7% doesn’t get the credit.

Trump’s whole case on the economy is that he should.

But wage growth — already unexceptional — is slowing. So is job growth, at a year-to-date monthly average 26% below 2015, the third year of the last presidential term. Manufacturing job growth has slowed too.

The stock market (Trump’s favorite indicator) has stalled — the Standard & Poor’s 500 index SPX, +0.97%   and Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.89%  have bounced around, driven by Trump’s on-again-off-again tariff wars. The Dow peaked in January 2018, the S&P last September.

That we are back near the peaks shows only that the Federal Reserve has taken the wheel, moving toward more interest-rate cuts. It’s not confidence in Trump. Twitter’s ranter-in- chief turns it off to coolly assess economics, and economics alone? Sure.

4. He’ll keep screwing up

Right now, Trump’s meandering toward armed conflict with Iran. But wartime leadership requires trust, not telling 10,796 lies in office, Trump’s count according to The Washington Post last week.

That means Trump either climbs down (again) from his latest pseudo-crusade, or tries war without public support. Neither makes him more popular.

Next, he’s throwing himself a July 4 rally at the Lincoln Memorial — nothing tacky there. Trump will salute Abraham Lincoln’s second inaugural, and the anniversary of the Battle of Gettysburg, offering charity toward none and malice for nearly all. Stories about his lack of respect will follow as night follows day.

Then he’ll mess with trade again, making your portfolio more volatile. Open more barbed-wire refugee camps. Lose some of their kids. Blow off subpoenas, keeping investigations of his inauguration, foundation, taxes and Russian influence alive. He even says he’ll try another Obamacare repeal bill, after 2017’s failures handed Democrats the House.

All winners.

5. Hillary’s not running — neither is Hunter Biden

The reason Trump is president is Clinton’s e-mail scandalette. That and her family’s history of diving for dollars, even taking $675,000 for Hillary’s speeches at Goldman Sachs.

But who’s he gonna chant lock ‘em up about this time?

Of the Democratic candidates, Elizabeth Warren’s well off — she wrote books, her husband has a good job, and their house is worth five times its 1995 purchase price. All legit. Bernie Sanders became a millionaire through book sales, begrudgingly. Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper ran brew pubs. South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg has simple finances; he works, and his husband teaches at a Montessori Academy. Biden, who has unfortunately been cashing in on speeches too, made his tax returns public during his vice presidency and surely will publish his 2016-2019 returns.

Not a lobbyist with his hand out, or foreign potentates staying in their hotels, to be found. Let alone a multi-year tax fraud, as asserted in Trump’s case.Trump wants to make hay about Biden’s son’s businesses, but his own son-in-law met with potential lenders to his real estate business — in the White House. That dog won’t, ahem, Hunter.

Enjoy Mar-a-Lago, Mr. President. Wait! You don’t want Florida? Here’s a sixth reason you’re going south.

In this life, not the next. That’s another column.

New Yorkers like you even less than Washington, so a cloister far from madding crowds is in order. You know the folks who would love you if you shot someone outside Trump Tower? They don’t live here.

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Anonymous
Anonymous

‘She wrote books”

Yes, Indian cook books.

Dutchman
Dutchman

Native American 7 course meal: 6 pack of Coors and a bag of chips.

EL Fenix
EL Fenix

If Trump just builds the wall from Tijuana all the way up the 395, he can win.

Mygirl...maybe

Yawn….

Cheesesteak
Cheesesteak

Couldn’t agree more. I voted for him and other than cut Bozo’s taxes and raising mine, he talks a lot and does nothing. No wall, no return of manufacturing jobs no end to the police state, now he is talking tough on guns. A liar and con-man, no doubt, but as usual the TPTB give you two shit choices. Stinky shit, or slimy shit, both were shit.

Dutchman
Dutchman

I don’t know who this “Tim” guy is, but he’s full of shit. These are just empty words of desperation from a Trump hater.

Trump is the best thing out there. Would you rather have Bernie or Biden?

Iconoclast421

I’d much rather have either of them. Make the left own what they are bringing. It isn’t going to be stopped. It can’t be stopped. May as well make damn sure they get the blame for it.

noBabel
noBabel

Yeah, unfortunately, it seems Trump will be holding the ball when the music stops.

Llpoh
Llpoh

He likely loses because he has not met his most basic promise to build the wall. Instead he has record illegal immigration. That is a major fuck-up. Thus, his turnout will drop, and it is likely game over. Fool me once, shame on me, etc.

He will simply not get the turnout he did last time, and you only get one Crooked Hillary in a lifetime.

Donkey Balls
Donkey Balls

Yep, the most important items, he’s done nothing about. As far as I can tell anyway.

Iska Waran
Iska Waran

Crooked Hillary in 2016 but the Dems’ 2020 candidate could be as bad – just in a different way (remember that Hillary was “most qualified ever”).

Biden the gropey retard
Bernie the crazy socialist
(Both Biden and Sanders are running for Oldest President Ever)
Warren the fake Indian
Kamala “you white people disgust me” Harris.
A guy who has a husband? Seriously?

Trump’s poll are probably about 5% low because nobody wants the polling girl to think you’re a nazi. Once you’re in the voting both it’s a different matter. You can tell your daughter you voted for Kamala even if you didn’t.

Take 5% lying to pollsters and add 5% once the Dems have an actual human, flawed candidate and it’s too close to call.

Cheesesteak
Cheesesteak

After 9/11 never would have thought a half black guy with a Muslim name would be president, but look what happened.

TomMacGyver
TomMacGyver

…Orchestrated record illegal immigration…

Iconoclast421

For every 2016 Trump voter who abstains because of what he hasn’t done, there will be 1.2 who vote for him (who didn’t in 2016) just because he hasn’t been as bad as they said he would be in 2015/2016.

Dutchman
Dutchman

I’m not defending Trump – but: He’s not the king. He can’t get it done without Congress. The Democrats want to be in power so badly, they don’t mind letting the country go to hell with massive illegal immigration. They want Trump to look bad – thus they block all efforts to reform immigration.

Llpoh
Llpoh

Dutch – he had both houses for two years, and he did nothing to get the wall. He could have got it.

Middle-Aged Mad Gnome
Middle-Aged Mad Gnome

Yes, and a pile of RINO Senators who also stopped absolutely everything he tried to do and made sure Trump knew they would impeach him if he really made a strong move. And another pile of activist State and Federal Judges who made sure they stopped everything he actually did by Executive Order. So no, he couldn’t do much of anything without deploying a willing military to seize all power. Then he might have been able to actually “accomplish” the things the Never Trumpers here say they expected him to do. So we might be totally screwed as a country, but it’s not because of Trump not “getting things done”.

Llpoh
Llpoh

Middle aged – that is some A grade stupid right there. Trump had them by the balls. He just won an unwinnable election. He could veto every damn thing. Congress was never gonna impeach. Hell, even the Dems will not do it.

He simply had to demand money for the wall, at threat of veto of all budgets, and they would have caved. They would have had no choice. It still might work. But he has no balls.

Iska Waran
Iska Waran
noBabel
noBabel

There is no winning. Only buying time. Trump bought us time (the only thing I thought he would do). I hope you all used it wisely to prepare. We still have a little time left, but not much.

indubitably
indubitably

Not with Ryan.

Festering Boil
Festering Boil

He had two houses full if Dims and RINOs, which are leftists who ran as Republicans…. McStain was a big one, Gowdy, Amash, Ryan, as bad as they come, King, Cruz, McConnell, Paul, Sessions, Shelby, Sasse, Ernst, Graham, though he changes at the drop of a zipper, Flake, Rubio, Alexander, Love, Chaffetz, Romney, Hatch, Grassley, depending on the day of the week, Collins, Burr, and do I need name more?

These people are all privately sworn leftists who do Israels bidding and follow the Jewish orthodoxy of our present day government…. Even Comey and Mueller, total enemies of this country registered as Republicans to subvert the country….

Sorry, one man against the world can’t win. You and others need to get active in the political process and not just complain about it…. I don’t like any of the gun stuff either, but I would prefer not living under full blown tyranny for 4 more years because it is coming full bore afterwards……

Cheesesteak
Cheesesteak

Exactly. He sat on his hands, just so he could use the whole issue as kabuki theater to get re-elected. F it, I’m done with voting nationally. It is pointless.

Salvinia
Salvinia

If voting mattered do you think they’d let us do it?

Salvinia
Salvinia

What happened to “Day One”? Trump’s currency is tweets and about as worthless.

noBabel
noBabel

To whom will he lose?

Iska Waran
Iska Waran

Exactly. They got two dozen challengers and the only one worth a shit – Tulsi Gabbard – has negative zero percent chance of getting the nomination.

Salvinia
Salvinia

That sums it up nicely.

ZigZag
ZigZag

Your choice in 2016 was to vote either for very ,very bad or very, very, very bad and very , very bad won.
YAY for the King of Debt !!
oh…. and the choice looks to be quite similar for 2020.

So just relax…there will be no savior ,,,, no white knight.

Runaway debt is running the global show .

gatsby1219
gatsby1219

Is the author taking any bets ?

Anonymous
Anonymous

Well, I’ll add that IF he is going to win, he’d better have some sort of super-great-fix for illegal voting. That’s another thing that there is no evidence that he’s done anything about. I guess perhaps the pentagon could hack the voting results and overcome it all at the 11th hour.

TomMacGyver
TomMacGyver

Five reasons Trump won’t win in 2020? The Democrats have 21 reasons he will.

Iconoclast421

Trump is simply going to annihilate anyone that goes against him. Campaigns are all about spewing bullshit, and who can do that better than him?? It won’t matter that he won’t actually keep any promises … I mean obviously the dems aren’t going to be attacking Trump for not stopping the invasion. He will win, and we will still lose.

TC
TC

Trump has easily lost 10% of his base (maybe more) due to being MIGA instead of MAGA and actually being worse than Obama on his key immigration platform. Factor that with the massive legal and illegal surge across the country as well as the DNC really getting their voter fraud mechanisms down to a precision science means the 2020 election is for the Dems to lose. Since Trump has done 120% of what the string pullers want (always overdeliver, right?) my prediction is that the Dems will throw the election to Trump by running the most unpalatable person possible but who moves the social needle in a throwaway election – i.e. Mayor Pete the Sodomite. Either way, it’s a Win-Win for the Talmud party.

Jack Lovett

Drumph the joo murdering butcher, satanyahoos water boy. He is starving children to death by his stupid sanction bs. Now the dirtbag will attack Iran for the greater good of Israel. Now this dictator wanna-be will start a war in which many american boys and Iranian boys will die. He needs to be taken out.

ILuvCO2
ILuvCO2

Let them get over confident. It’s a good thing. Don’t interrupt your enemy when…..

noBabel
noBabel

Trump doesn’t need to win. He can just smile and wave. The Democrats are going crash and burn themselves to a crisp in a fiery inferno. The author can’t actually believe what he is writing about, can he? He has to be bluffing. Why, I don’t know. The delusion of that party is simply breathtaking.

Iska Waran
Iska Waran

It’d be hilarious if they nominated Buttgeek. The president’s not supposed to be in the White House sucking dick, unless it’s the Israeli Prime Minister.

Bad Brad
Bad Brad

I think come November 2020, we are going to need a Chaplain for
Tim Mullaney. He writes as if he is in the final stages of Trump Derangement
Syndrome (TDS). Last time, it was crying at shouting at the Sky. We
are way beyond that now. Their anger, insanity, and demands can not and
will not be met without great turmoil in our land.

Steve
Steve

2 things I see. If the Russia collusion farce goes anywhere with Barr straightening things out and the stock market holds ( we are in the melt up phase with record setting Dow numbers ahead, even as the real economy continues to tank) Trump will get reelected.

sheliak
sheliak

Agree with your five points, particularly that everyone has already made up their mind about Trump, however you fail to mention a significant sixth. Trump’s failure to take many significant actions within his scope of authority to secure the US southern border will have alienated millions by 2020 presidential election time. I believe his reelection is doomed based upon this point alone. Trump increasingly strikes me as P.T. Barnum.

Salvinia
Salvinia

Gee, the only reason I voted for the Orange Creep-in-Chief was his promise to deport illegal aliens. That was it. So far, 11 employers prosecuted last year, fewer deportations than under Obama and numbers of parasites flooding the country are surging? The glaring exception to all immigration enforcement: Yarrabee Farms, which is notable as that was as “low hanging” (a term which could be applied to Trump) as the fruit gets. Should employers of illegals who happen to be accessories to murder be outfitted with invisibility cloaks because they’re Republicon donors?

Please. Fool me once as they say. Trump’s hard-on for daddy’s little girl prevents any cognitive functioning above the waistline.

Salvinia
Salvinia

…Emigrate while you still can!

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