On a recent call with ETMarkets.com, no-nonsense economic guru Jim Rogers restated his concern that a bear market was on the way, and investors should be on the lookout for small signs to avoid another crisis like 2008.
Although Rogers could not give a timeline for the bear market to arrive, he did say that it will be the “worst in my lifetime,” a prediction he’s stuck by for a while now, and the key to spotting a market correction lies within smaller markets.
Via Economic Times:
How do you view US stock markets currently?
I am not investing in US stock market because I expect problems to come in the next year or two. I am not buying shares.
In the US market, some of the stocks like Apple and Google go up every day. They never go down, which is a dangerous sign in any stock markets. When you have a few stocks always going up and the movement has been concentrated and that seems to be what is happening in the US stock market.
Any timeline, any horizon that you have for this bear market that you are foreseeing?
No, I will just say it will be the worst in my lifetime. It has been over 10 years since we had a serious bear market in the United States. I would suspect by the end of this year or next year, it will start. These things always start small, where people are not looking and then they work to the major markets, and then you see them on the major news.
In 2007, Iceland went bankrupt but nobody noticed or cared. Then Ireland went bankrupt. Then a few weeks later, Bear Sterns went bankrupt and a few weeks later Northern Rock, the English Bank, went bankrupt. Then eventually Lehman brothers went bankrupt and by then, everybody knew there was a problem. But it had been there for over a year and it has always worked that way. It starts when we are not watching. It has already started. Latvia collapsed. Argentina, Venezuela, Turkey, some banks in India are having problems, Indonesia has started having problems. It has not made to evening news yet.
All these markets are small but until they make it to the big markets, people do not notice.
Rogers also told ETMarkets.com that he believes a trade deal will arrive soon between the United States and China amid escalating tariffs, but it may not mean much as even more trade wars will begin, contributing to the catastrophic bear market scenario Rogers mentioned above.
Do you think there will be a US-China trade deal soon and why?
Yes, it will because both sides need it and they both have expectations. So, yes, there is going to be some good news coming out fairly soon and we will all be happy for a while. But it will not last very long because the next time the American stock market or the economy starts having problems, Mr. Trump is going to blame that on Asia and come out with more trade wars, not just against China but against Japan, Korea and everybody because Mr. Trump in his heart thinks trade war is good. He is surrounded by people who think a trade war is good. He thinks he can win a trade war. He does not know history, thinks he is smarter than history or both.
I know he is thinking he is smarter than history and I doubt if he knows history. So, we will have more trade wars next year, the year after and that is why another reason the next time we have a bear market, it is going to be the worst in my lifetime.
Rogers goes more in-depth about Chinese, Indian and Russian markets. Click here to read the interview in full.
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He’s been reading that loser Hussman.
I used to wait to see the start of the fall of the markets, I was a hopeless doom porn acolyte.
JR was one of my favorites as was Marc Farber.
Finally I told myself I should be paying more attention to my own head,heart and spirit.
I was right.
Leave the financial Jenga game waiting room and live life.
Love me some Marc Faber. But he’s disappeared form the circuit since he mentioned Africans had never constructed any kind of urban cohesion or sophisticated living systems. Becuz it’s rasist to point out the truth.
He’s still around from time to time, but mostly just enjoying his wealthy well-constructed life. He’s a wise man.
Right! Use flexible stop loss orders so while the doomsayers lose out on a market that doubled, you simple lose some of your profits from the top. Much better than not participating as these guys are selling their own short-sale book.
I thought I’d ask you guys something I’m undecided about. I’ve got a few bucks to get some more precious metals. Historically, platinum seems easily the best choice to me. It seems pretty resistant to higher prices lately, though. Which do you prefer? Also, apropos of the article, so far I’m waiting for a correction ala 2008. I don’t know if this is a good plan or not. In ’08, metals got hammered as people sold to cover losses and I suspect the same thing will happen again. Or not. Any ideas?
Headless,
I would buy what you can personally store and trade locally. After SHTF do you think there will be a market for platinum where you live? Also, if you look at the annual charts you will see gold and silver rose dramatically from 2008 to 2013 until the fuckery in the paper markets hammered the physical pricing. I’d buy now. Metals are being artificially deflated currently but that won’t last forever. Anyone owning physical gold at less than $1,600 and physical silver at less than $30 an oz won’t be disappointed, IMHO.
I wonder about the Au/Pt thing. For ages Pt was double Au, and now it’s reversed. I was getting Au sub-$300, so it seems expensive and that’s what holds me back. Still, you’re right about the final result. I do have more Au than Pt, so maybe some balance? Thanks for the input.
Personally, I have bought lead the last 10 years. I figure I will always be able to trade a box of .22LR for whatever I may need. I bought some gold in the 90’s @ $400 and am sitting on it, but have not added any other precious metals for the last 25 years.
Hello TN from MO
Problem there is I’ve already got all the lead I’ll ever need. It’s good to have some more portable stuff, even though I don’t plan on going anywhere. Thanks for the thought.
HH,
At the basic level of Silver and Gold I believe everyone should stash ‘some’ Pre 64 FDR dimes and Pre 64 quarters for worst case SHTF barter purchases.
14 FDR dimes make up an ounce of silver…14 small potential purchases for food, gas, and TP etc.
A little ‘Junk’ Silver may go a long way. (Of course eventually you will be able to use all your Fed debt instruments for TP or Kleenex…it will eventually be good for wiping mucus as well as the other more common shit).
You can get all you want at SD Bullion at a good cost, delivered in two days for 10 pieces of future TP/mucus tissue or in 5 days for free!
Then American Eagle 1 oz. Silver coins (universally recognized in America).
Then, if you have some wealth, 1/4th, 1/2 & 1 oz. American Eagle Gold Coins, (The slice and dice depending on your comfort with your level of wealth, your level of what is coming/when, and your level of or lack of debt).
If you are in the Gold Bar level you are too far over my wealth experience to listen to me on anything, I tip my camo cover to ya…and dip my M1A’s barrel. I’m just a middle class Grunt in all ways…and proud of living here.
I speculated with some 100 oz. Silver bars in the early 80’s after the Hunt Brother’s got their clock cleaned, but cashed them all in long time ago.
My ratio on PM’s is close to 50/50 with Silver and Gold. But no doubt Silver has much more potential at this exact time in this 4th Turning…especially for a Grunt.
Know nothing about platinum and have never delved in it. Best keep quiet about it and thought a fool, then discuss it and remove all doubt.
Of course all other Prep that will (hopefully) keep my family and me alive (or at least kick ass defiant for as long as possible) is long ago completed, stashed or being sharpened every harvest as well as being constantly improved and or added to.
PS: Do you live in Hollow Sleepy?
Thanks for the input. I’m in SE Missouri since 2001, New Mexico before that. I’m about 50/50 Au/Ag also. I’ve 1 oz rounds and junk for Ag, and Eagles and Leafs for Au. I had some of those Ag 100 oz bars as well, but didn’t like them.
I’m leaning toward more Pt because it seems cheap, and I don’t have much of it. I think I’ll take the advice of BD (above) and not wait for the inevitable correction. In the end the timing probably won’t make that much difference. JM Bullion is where I usually deal. They’ve been good so far. There are a couple I used to use that ended up in trouble, and thankfully I didn’t have any orders with them when that happened. You need to be careful these days.
One thing I never see addressed is what happens to our metal money when inflation takes off. Nickels still have their intrinsic value even with 1000% inflation. I think it would be wise to have a considerable amount of regular change in store as well as the rest.
Where’s Hollow Sleepy ?
Edit – LOL, never mind on the Hollow Sleepy question
As they say, better to buy a year early than a day late.
Here you go HH,
Thanks.
I haven’t seen a Boom, Doom and Gloom report in quite a while. what happened to that guy?
Still around… (I misspelled his name earlier, it’s Faber).
https://www.gloomboomdoom.com/
What a load of bupkiss! Anyone with a few undamaged brain cells could just look around at empirical evidence and see the jig was up before 2008. Housing/Stocks selling like Tulips on steroids. Only most “professionals” didn’t see or let on what was coming (incl. Geithner, Bernanke and the White Shoe boys). JR must be short the market and needs a little help.
Dow had a significant break above a short term downtrend miraculously (if you believe in such things) just in time for the 4th holiday and has trudged higher since. The narrow breadth move, however, is not being confirmed by the transports, midcaps or small caps. Energy and Dr. Copper also pulling back. Looking at the yield curve – it’s still pointing to recession. This is not a healthy economy bull market. Gold chart still looks better than silver, but that could change tomorrow with the little sister having a strong day today.
J00bucks to zero!
NSAcoin to zero!