Some Practical Questions About The Coronavirus Epidemic

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Restrictions that allow a significant number of people to move about, either with official approval or unsanctioned “black market” activity, cannot stop the spread of contagious diseases.

Like everyone else, I’ve been reading the mainstream media reports on the Coronavirus epidemic. I haven’t found any information about the practicalities that immediately occur to me, such as:

1. When public transportation is halted and commerce grinds to a halt as people avoid public places and gatherings, thousands of employees no longer go to work. Who pays their wages while the city is locked down? The employers? Then who compensates the employers, since their income has also gone to zero?

Does China have a universal unemployment insurance system that can quickly issue payments to all people who are no longer going to work and getting a paycheck from an employer?

What about the thousands of migrant workers who don’t have regular employers? Who pays them? If they’re technically not officially sanctioned residents of the city, they don’t exist in government records.

2. If people idled by the lockdown are supposed to live off savings, what about all the marginal workers with few resources? What are they going to live on once their meager savings are gone?

3. Given the choice of obeying the lockdown rules and starving or slipping out of the city to find paid work somewhere else, how many migrant workers will choose to slip away?

4. Unlike the developed West, many people in China still have ancestral villages to return to, rural towns where their grandparents or or other close relatives live. If work has dried up and you’re fearful of catching a potentially lethal virus, wouldn’t it make sense to slip out of the city and make your way back to the village where you can hunker down until the epidemic blows over?

Since people who caught the virus may not know they’re a carrier, how will this migration not spread the disease to rural areas with few medical resources?

5. The typical city has about a week’s supply of food, fuel, etc. at best. If the lockdown runs longer than a few days, scarcities of essentials will ignite hoarding, and remaining supplies will be snapped up.

Since the city’s residents need food, fuel, etc., it must be brought in regardless of the lockdown. This brings outside workers into the city and provides residents desperate to flee avenues to escape the lockdown. Every individual involved in this system is potentially exposed to the virus or is a potential asymptomatic carrier of the virus leaving the city.

These realities leave officials with an impossible choice: either truly isolate the city, which isn’t possible for more than a few days, or allow the stupendous flow of goods required to sustain millions of city residents, thereby creating uncontrollable avenues for the virus to spread beyond the city as transport workers and those fleeing the lockdown travel to other cities.

6. The only way to end a contagion is to identify every carrier of the disease and immediately isolate them in full hazmat mode, and then track down every individual they had contact with during the incubation/asymptomatic period of the disease–up to two weeks–and isolate all these individuals until they either develop the disease or pass through the crisis unharmed.

This was the basic procedure used to end the SARS epidemic in 2003. As this article from the The New England Journal of Medicine explains (Another Decade, Another Coronavirus, (via correspondent Cheryl A.), the Wuhan Coronavirus shares characteristics with SARS and cannot be dismissed as just another run-of-the-mill flu virus.

During this process of isolating / quarantining everyone with the disease and everyone they had close contact with, all healthcare workers caring for these people must also remain isolated from the general populace lest they become infected and spread the disease outside the quarantine.

Treating people in crowded hospitals where hundreds of people are coming and going and moving freely into the rest of the city won’t stop a contagion from spreading.

If the only way to end a contagion is to identify every carrier of the disease and immediately isolate them, and then track down every individual they had contact with during the incubation/asymptomatic period of the disease–is this even possible in China now?

Please study the map below before claiming it’s still possible.

7. China is making a big show about sending 1,000 doctors to Wuhan, but precisely what medical treatments are available for this virus, how effective are these treatments, and do they require a physician to be administered? If the answers are: there are no effective targeted medical treatments for this virus, and doctors are not required to administer what is available, then why expose a scarce resource–physicians–to the disease since they really can’t do much to halt it or heal the patients?

Isn’t sending 1,000 doctors to Wuhan more a PR move than anything else? And if it’s basically a PR stunt to appear to be “doing something,” doesn’t that call the entire official response into question?

If there is no targeted treatment available, then the recovery of the patient is a function of their immune system. Building tent hospitals that are porous–healthcare workers returning home after their shift, relatives visiting the stricken, workers moving supplies in and out of other facilities, etc.–will do little to isolate carriers and potential carriers. And since complete isolation is the only way to stem the contagion, these porous tent hospitals won’t do much to limit the contagion.

8. Are the travel bans on tours and other travel restriction measures 100%, in other words, not a single individual is being allowed in or out? If the travel restrictions are haphazard, then what’s stopping asymptomatic carriers of the virus from traveling freely around the world?

There are many other practical questions about the epidemic and China’s response that aren’t being addressed in the conventional media. While we don’t know precisely how contagious and lethal the virus is at this point–and it could mutate into a more contagious and lethal variation within a carrier at any moment–we do know complete isolation of every carrier and everyone they had close contact with is the only way to end the contagion.

We also know cities can’t truly be isolated for longer than a few days, and we know people can’t live without food, water, fuel, etc. and money to buy these essentials. We also know that restrictions that allow a significant number of people to move about, either with official approval or unsanctioned “black market” activity, cannot stop the spread of contagious diseases.

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66 Comments
yahsure
yahsure
January 27, 2020 8:26 am

The population control people are happy. Lots of people are going to die.

Hardscrabble Farmer
Hardscrabble Farmer
January 27, 2020 8:27 am

Those questions just expose the fraudulent nature of this current “epidemic”.

Virtually nothing that has been done thus far indicates that any government anywhere believes it to actually be an epidemic. There is a notable lack of concern for the health and safety of the native populations as plane load after plane load of potentially infected Chinese are deposited around the planet, every hour, every day.

Unless the plan was to spread it.

oldtimer505
oldtimer505
  Hardscrabble Farmer
January 27, 2020 8:38 am

You have said it all HF. Either this is all BS or the intention is or was to introduce and spread a disease planet wide. Either way the genie is out of the box. With the mobile world of today no one will go untouched should it be a real problem. If this is a hoax, then what the heck are the pronoun people trying to cover up?

Martel's Hammer
Martel's Hammer
  Hardscrabble Farmer
January 27, 2020 8:59 am

Myopic on your part. 53 million in China are quarantined during the New Year (Chinese) travel time…..huge move by the Chinese. They are imposing mandatory Temperature checks to travel. The fact that these temp checks are useless as the virus is transmissible while the victim is asymptomatic doesn’ mean the various Governments aren’t trying….

This is looking like the Chinese Chernobyl…an authoritarian government sees its own legitimacy challenged in a crisis and epically screws the pooch…..the Virus is inside their OODA loop……

We will know in the next week to 10 days whether this is a real pandemic or not…..scale of 1918. Governments will react harshly if it is….but of course, by then it will be far too late. Even now the foreigners in Wuhan are being evacuated…….which will indeed effectively spread the virus….but you fail to think like a government hack…..they don’t want to be blamed for leaving citizens in China. So they will load the planes up with carriers and bring them home!

razzle
razzle
  Martel's Hammer
January 27, 2020 9:04 am

Don’t ignore his final sentence.

gman
gman
  razzle
January 27, 2020 12:01 pm

“Don’t ignore his final sentence.”

(reading it) ah. thanks.

Mygirl....Maybe
Mygirl....Maybe
  Hardscrabble Farmer
January 27, 2020 9:01 am

No, those questions didn’t expose a fraud. Please explain why a government would destroy it’s economy over a fraud? Do you quarantine over 60 million people because of a fraud? Those people will need food, water and heat and how does that happen if no one is working, no transportation in or or out. You think airlifting food and water is cheap, especially on the scale that’s happening now?

You think governments aren’t afraid of mass panic? I thought you were smarter than this.

razzle
razzle
  Mygirl....Maybe
January 27, 2020 9:05 am

Don’t ignore his final sentence.

Mygirl....Maybe
Mygirl....Maybe
  razzle
January 27, 2020 9:19 am

The plan is to spread it? Oh Please. Like pandora’s box, these things have a way of getting out of hand and if the intent was a global pandemic they picked a poor disease for that. Airborne yersinia pestis weaponized would be a perfect pandemic creator. Never ascribe nefarious designs to what is usually bureaucratic incompetence.

Already the stock markets are taking hits, the economy of China is tanking…and the Chicoms, with their grand plans for global expansion WANT this?

“Investors who dismissed the threat to their P&Ls posed by China’s coronavirus outbreak are suddenly realizing that they’ve made a grave miscalculation. What few Asian markets were open on Monday (most were closed for the LNY holiday) saw equities tank, and in the US, futures are pointing to a steep drop at the open…”

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/wuhan-mayor-offers-resign-coronavirus-death-toll-accelerates-supply-shortages

razzle
razzle
  Mygirl....Maybe
January 27, 2020 9:22 am

Nobody said the plan to spread it out would be to maximize death or even go truly global pandemic.

razzle
razzle
  Mygirl....Maybe
January 27, 2020 9:28 am

Posting after your edit: Yes… burning some market heat off without the officials in any particular country having to do so directly and then getting blamed would be handy to some folks, yeah?

Mygirl....Maybe
Mygirl....Maybe
  razzle
January 27, 2020 11:56 am

Yeah, kill and sicken people to burn off market heat….that’s the ticket….

niebo
niebo
  Mygirl....Maybe
January 27, 2020 1:53 pm

MGM – look at Virginia . . . huge protest followed by, the day after, passage of Red Flag Law!

THEY do NOT care! THEY are hedged. THEY are prepared. THEY MUST maintain control by whatever means. A few thousand/ten-thousand/hundred thousand/million dead via pandemic is NOT too a high a cost for the satanists-in-charge. It crashes economies and allows implementation of MORE draconian laws, maybe mandatory vax and God knows what else.

Think BIG PICTURE. Do I think this is the virus to end humanity? No. As you said, pneumonic Black Plague is WAY more contagious and by the time you knew you were sick, you were dead. PERFECT bacteria for true pandemic . . . but this COULD BE the ‘blame” for the collapse of the ponzi scheme that THEY have been running for generations. And guess who stays in power? THEY do, because . . . “black swan”. “Force Majeure”. “Act of God”.

niebo
niebo
  niebo
January 27, 2020 1:57 pm

I see your comment below and you touched on some of this already . . . 🙂

Hardscrabble Farmer
Hardscrabble Farmer
  Mygirl....Maybe
January 27, 2020 9:38 am

I’ve seen the “it’s too late to do anything now” mantra repeated endlessly now. So if there is a fire in a city and it has spread to a couple of buildings, the proper response is “it’s too late to do anything now”?

Don’t be ridiculous.

You staunch the flow at whatever point you discover there’s a problem of this (alleged) magnitude, you don’t keep landing planes full of potential infected and disembark and release them into the general population hour after hour, day after day, week after week while simultaneously creating a panic about how serious this is. It isn’t a problematic response, it is an intentional infection of the entire Earth’s population.

So those are the only two options you have.

It isn’t real, or it is an intentional mass murder policy carried out by the combined governments of the world.

I have no idea why China would shut things down right now on this level, but I’ve given you several reasonable options on other threads, the most probable being a preemptive attempt to quell dissent in China that is the real contagion they’re afraid of spreading. Hong Kong showed them as ineffective and now their widespread population, tired of the CCP, may just have been getting ideas. You know that they have all kinds of other systemic problems with their governance, maybe this is the way they handle it without the rest of the world getting all up in their business.

Mygirl....Maybe
Mygirl....Maybe
  Hardscrabble Farmer
January 27, 2020 10:48 am

You honestly think the ChiComs are doing this to stop protests? Really? They have armies for that….

As to the rest of the world…think about something, the rest of the world is scared shitless of possible panic over pandemics not to mention actual pandemics. Want to guarantee global economic collapse in a global economy? Push a pandemic. It’s already happening and if you believe the ‘elites’ are ready for that at this time, guess again.

Here, watch this….a chinese man with some serious charges against incompetent and possibly complicit officials, a mention of the bio 4 labs and an intimation that this is a bioweapon along the lines of SARS. He also states that soon all planes incoming from China will be stopped and borders sealed with other countries….

Hardscrabble Farmer
Hardscrabble Farmer
  Mygirl....Maybe
January 27, 2020 10:58 am

I have repeatedly said I do not know why this is happening, I merely provided a possible scenario because you kept asking “what possible reason could they have?” and it was the most obvious one to come to mind.

And while they may have a military to deal with that kind of stuff, they don’t appear to have been very effective in derailing the Hong Kong protests, then this happened and everything simmered down.

That happened.

Mushroom Cloud
Mushroom Cloud
  Hardscrabble Farmer
January 27, 2020 1:43 pm

Population control and quashing dissent: talk about killing two bats with on stone…?

Martel's Hammer
Martel's Hammer
  Hardscrabble Farmer
January 27, 2020 11:14 am

Come on the binary outcome is seldom the correct answer, I know you are smarter than this.

The Chi-coms are working for their own perceived best interests (stay in power and cover their own asses) and will do things that are obviously wrong in hindsight.

Yes, if they really thought it was a serious pandemic then…the correct answer is to lock down everything. Nothing moves in or out…..but the consequences of making that decision both known and unknown are gigantic.

Folks will stay in their homes in the best case 7-10 days, less if they don’t have water. Will that stop a true pandemic, probably not.

If it is not a true pandemic and the Chicoms fuck up everybody’s New Year, they might see more widespread Hong Kong-style revolts……

Having dealt with many autocratic regimes, I am sure the party officials are unduly focused on avoiding spreading the Hong Kong sentiment to the mainland…..that is what they really care about.

So don’t give these idiots more credit than they deserve. They simply lack the capacity to run a worldwide plot to reduce population…..

Even our own elites are making idiotic decisions under the same rubric……what can we do to cover our asses, ensure our own retention of power etc….

Never underestimate the power of stupidity and short term focus.

By the time LA, Seattle, San Fran are on lockdown it will be far too late….

Let’s up the R0 is closer to the 1.2 of normal flu, the lethality not 4% and the whole thing goes down as an epic “Swine Flu” nothing burger…….right now we don’t know. Maybe somebody knows but they ain’t saying…..

Hardscrabble Farmer
Hardscrabble Farmer
  Martel's Hammer
January 27, 2020 11:27 am

I wasn’t suggesting that there was a deliberate plot to reduce the the worldwide population, only a de facto establishment of that outcome if this is an authentic pandemic.

And I do not believe in incompetence theory at the level everyone else seems to accept. Yes, governments are packed full of incompetent people, but the fact that they manage to never pay any price for their actions suggests that they are extremely competent in controlling those aspects of governance which actually matter to elites, the firm grasp of power.

oldtimer505
oldtimer505
  Hardscrabble Farmer
January 27, 2020 12:23 pm

If government and its minions are the enemy then don’t under estimate the enemy. I hear you on this HF.

IMO only a fool lives in fear. The fear of death, flood, storm, pole switching, tornado, climate change, oil shortage, pollution, earth quake, volcanic eruption, nuclear war, slip and fall accident and ice age. I think everyone gets the point. If we focus on all these fears then we will be blind sided by the screwing that is going to be delivered. I am not suggesting we ignore any of the above natural occurrences, I am suggesting keep things in focus. What I know is diabolical ass holes exist right along side sociopaths and psychopaths. They walk among us.

Martel's Hammer
Martel's Hammer
  Hardscrabble Farmer
January 27, 2020 2:02 pm

The elites in any regime, including ours, are talented at ensuring their own survival but make incompetent decisions because they are focused on the wrong things. Let’s hope it is not an actual pandemic……we could easily lose 100M people worldwide.

The 1918 Spanish flu infected 1/3 of the world’s population or 500M and killed 50M or almost 10%…..so let’s say this Coronavirus infects 2B people and kills 5% or 100M…..the knock-on impacts economically will be staggering.

James the Deplorable Wanderer
James the Deplorable Wanderer
  Martel's Hammer
January 28, 2020 1:20 am

Not to argue pointlessly, but how do you come up with the 2B infected in a world with AIR TRAVEL? And there are already KNOWN infected on every continent?
If it’s true that the Spanish Flu infected 1/3 of the world’s population (not arguing that, taking it) during a time when sea travel was really the only world method; why wouldn’t this virus reach 100% saturation infection? What would stop it (when we already know there are carriers all over the world who took it with them before it was understood that the carriers were ASYMPTOMATIC for up to 2 weeks)?
Learn how to make colloidal silver, NOW, and start a prevention regimen before your children start coughing …

Iska Waran
Iska Waran
  Hardscrabble Farmer
January 27, 2020 6:24 pm

Never attribute to malice that which can adequately be explained by stupidity. Or incompetence. Or inertia. Or a combination of all of these.

Two if by sea, Three if from within thee
Two if by sea, Three if from within thee
  Mygirl....Maybe
January 27, 2020 9:59 am

“Never ascribe nefarious designs to what is usually bureaucratic incompetence.”
That statement says all there needs to be said.
Plenty of bureaucratic incompetence to go around. A city north of me dumped 7.5 million gallons of raw sewage into my river. That was mid-December. At the last minute, My states Dept. of Health is finally getting around to calling it a health concern. Free water testing till the last of this month at the county level, introduced four weeks post the spill. The response was and still is laughable! Bleach your wells and plumbing. HAHAHAHA
The entire aquifer is inundated and there is nothing to do but wait for it to flush itself clean(er).
Government is for the helpless.

Hardscrabble Farmer
Hardscrabble Farmer
  Two if by sea, Three if from within thee
January 27, 2020 10:13 am

You know what they are never incompetent about?

Remaining in power.

They seem to have that part down.

You know, every year or so there’s an outbreak of measles or a stomach bug on a cruise ship. You know what the response is? They quarantine everyone on the ship until the incubation period passes and people are cleared medically. Do you actually believe that the same people who control the spread of infectious diseases in this country and quarantine those ships have no counterpart in the airline industry?

They know what they’re doing and they could have easily implemented protocols, but they haven’t. Nothing at all. The planes keep landing and the Chinese keep getting off and the people take their passports, stamp them and say ‘have a nice visit’ and send them on their way. It’s happening at airports all over as I write this. They’ve been instructed to stand down.

Two if by sea, Three if from within thee
Two if by sea, Three if from within thee
  Hardscrabble Farmer
January 27, 2020 10:24 am

I concur and I suggest “they” only remain in power because you and I want very little to do with it in the first place.

oldtimer505
oldtimer505
  Two if by sea, Three if from within thee
January 27, 2020 12:29 pm

I live down stream from the Tittabawassee River outlet. There are two cities that have their waste treatment plants built in the flood plane, go figure. They are constantly having overflows or accidents, as they call them. This closes the beaches down stream for weeks. This never happened in my youth when the sewage was handled in a more distributed way.

gman
gman
  Mygirl....Maybe
January 27, 2020 12:04 pm

“The plan is to spread it?”

re-read it.

Mushroom Cloud
Mushroom Cloud
  Mygirl....Maybe
January 27, 2020 1:40 pm

Correct me if I’m wong, but doesn’t China have a population problem that they have been trying to fix for a long time ? If not that, what was the one child law brought in for?

StackingStock
StackingStock
  Hardscrabble Farmer
January 27, 2020 9:39 am

Inside Wuhan: Daily life in China’s coronavirus quarantine zone

Eyes Wide Shut
Eyes Wide Shut
January 27, 2020 9:51 am

It’s definitely for real right now in China. I can’t believe there would be any upside to overrating it. You can’t expect anything but attempted downplaying and cover up from them.
For everyone else it’s a matter of time to see how it plays out.
In real world business and government will generally wait until the last possible minute to be honest about anything if they think it will cause panic and/or negatively affect their bottom line.

Hardscrabble Farmer
Hardscrabble Farmer
  Eyes Wide Shut
January 27, 2020 10:00 am

Did you just make the claim that government’s go out of their way to minimize panic in their populations? I can’t remember the last time they tried to calm them.

And if you think making sure that the virus spreads as fast and as efficiently as possible will minimize a negative effect on the bottom line or calm a panic you’re not thinking this through.

Eyes Wide Shut
Eyes Wide Shut
  Hardscrabble Farmer
January 27, 2020 10:11 am

There is government playing the public to manipulate and control them as with global warming and there is outright panic beyond any government control such as a complete run on the banks or a pandemic situation.
There is a big difference between the two.
The government or big business welcomes what they believe they can use to their political or profit advantage and is scared to death of what they believe could be totally beyond their control.

Hardscrabble Farmer
Hardscrabble Farmer
  Eyes Wide Shut
January 27, 2020 10:33 am

If they are indeed “scared to death” of something they believe to be “totally beyond their control”, why would they deliberately guarantee it happening by not implementing measures that they are in control of right now before it gets away from them?

It simply doesn’t add up.

StackingStock
StackingStock
  Hardscrabble Farmer
January 27, 2020 10:45 am

I just sent a text message to my niece who works for a large Hospital.

Now she said that that we’ve had coronavirus here before, but this strain is different. I then asked if it’s real and she said yes. She said she’ll keep me updated.

Hardscrabble Farmer
Hardscrabble Farmer
  StackingStock
January 27, 2020 11:01 am

In China?

StackingStock
StackingStock
  Hardscrabble Farmer
January 27, 2020 11:15 am

No not in China, here in the US. Hey man it’s the only source I have as far as medical shit. Large hospital serving 1 million plus and she’s my only Niece, that’s all I got…..

Hardscrabble Farmer
Hardscrabble Farmer
  StackingStock
January 27, 2020 11:20 am

So her hospital is treating patients for the virus right now?

Definitely keep us updated.

Mary Christine
Mary Christine
  StackingStock
January 27, 2020 11:53 am

My daughter is a nurse in a smaller hospital about 30 miles from Kansas City. She’s working today. I asked her to tell me if they start talking about the virus. She said they just put new signs in the break room on what procedure to follow specifically to this virus. They require the full dress get up that you have seen pictures of already.

They have one negative pressure room.

I said if they admit a patient that tests positive that it won’t matter. By then it would be everywhere.

Yesterday I found out how hard it really is to stop touching your face. This sounds silly but it matters. I definitely can’t wear my hair straight. It falls in my face and I am constantly pushing it away. It’s funny how much you realize your nose starts itching when you don’t want to touch your face.

Mygirl....Maybe
Mygirl....Maybe
  Hardscrabble Farmer
January 27, 2020 10:53 am

YOU’RE not thinking this through. Governments ALWAYS attempt to minimize panic, they could lose power if panic takes over. Power and money are the keys here. You want to minimize this because the alternative scenario is a ghastly reality. Whistling past the grave yard. HSF, I don’t want to get into a pissing match with you but we for sure are on opposite sides of the topic here.

Hardscrabble Farmer
Hardscrabble Farmer
  Mygirl....Maybe
January 27, 2020 11:01 am

I know we are.

You’re all in on The Narrative and I am 100% skeptical until adequate proof is presented.

If I had not already lived through a dozen of these scares I would likely be a bit more cautious, but at this stage of my life it would be asinine for me to readily accept their claims- especially in light of their complete and abject failure to do anything about it thus far.

Eyes Wide Shut
Eyes Wide Shut
  Hardscrabble Farmer
January 27, 2020 11:10 am

I think a healthy skepticism all the way around is keeps us considering all possible outcomes.
As always hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

Hardscrabble Farmer
Hardscrabble Farmer
  Eyes Wide Shut
January 27, 2020 11:14 am

Agreed.

Mygirl....Maybe
Mygirl....Maybe
  Hardscrabble Farmer
January 27, 2020 12:01 pm

You have already stated that your lifestyle has been prepped for over a decade. You can afford to be sanguine and if you’re wrong? No biggie.

You make an assumption, an erroneous assumption that I’ve bought into the narrative. I haven’t. This is a different breed of cat and I am paying attention. Ebola was never an issue here. Not airborne, needs contact with body fluids. SARS was an issue but not on this scale and note that the chicoms didn’t quarantine for that like they have for this.

Remember the boy who cried wolf? Well, the wolf did indeed come around.

Mygirl....Maybe
Mygirl....Maybe
  Mygirl....Maybe
January 27, 2020 7:44 pm

comment image

Pequiste
Pequiste
January 27, 2020 9:58 am

Check out this terrifyingly predictive program intro from the ’70s :

Anonymous
Anonymous
  Pequiste
January 27, 2020 10:23 am

I had forgotten about that show, thanks.

Anonymous
Anonymous
January 27, 2020 10:09 am

It stands to reason that a black swan would come from a wet market. Lancet confirms that 33 of 35 samples taken from the west side of the market tested positive for the virus. Rather than jump to conspiracy, consider that “shit happens.” There is no good response to a virus that is contagious with an RO above 1. What would you do if a sickness was identified to have started in your home or on your farm? Closing the gate and locking the door is a solution the works until the furnace quits and the frig is empty. Not everyone is a prepper that can go dark for two months and let the storm blow over. This is real world, messy shit, caused by people. The Chinese will deal with this the way they deal with everything, there own way. Prepare for a new virus to sweep through. You have weeks and likely months.

Brian Reilly
Brian Reilly
January 27, 2020 11:39 am

Until I see something that is a lot more convincing than reporting/propaganda from organizations demonstrably dishonest, I am not buying any of this coronavirus “news”. Like the Las Vegas hotel shoot-up incident, something is going on, but not what we are being told. Are people sick? Maybe. Lots of people get sick. Dying? Sure, people dir all the time. Is it news when a few dozen Chinamen die, in a city of 11 million, and a nation of 1.3 billion? Maybe. Maybe not. There is no way for me, here in Florida, to rate the truth. All I know is that I don’t trust any of the media organizations, governmants, or NGO’s that I have read. Not yet. Now if there are deathcarts running around here, then you will have my attention. Until then, I remain vigilant but unconvinced, and unwilling to participate in the panic.

This really sounds like a great way to crash the dollar and the Euro. If it costs a few thousand Chinamen (or Americans, or anyone else) their lives, you think that any of our masters will miss them?

Mygirl....Maybe
Mygirl....Maybe
  Brian Reilly
January 27, 2020 6:18 pm

You may want to pay attention to this article. It discusses the repercussion of this disease on markets, economies and treasuries. Do not take this disease lightly…

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-grossly-underestimating-potential-impact-coronavirus-epidemic

Da Perfessor
Da Perfessor
January 27, 2020 11:40 am

Folks,

At this point the who, what, why, and how no longer matter. The bug is out and that’s that.

The next indices of interest are:

1) Rate of infection growth in your locale…there is potentially some race specificity.

2) Mortality rate in the locale…..pay close attention to the differential between the young/healthy and aged/infirm. A higher rate in the young is a bad sign.

3) How does the infection rate correspond to symptoms whereupon patients seek out professional care? That’s a biggie as there just are not enough resources to go around.

A week ago, there was one confirmed patient in North America. Now there are 6. A week from today, do we have 11-13 patients (additive or doubling) or 15+ (power of 1.5 increase per week which is not unreasonable given R0 estimates and asymptomatic carriers).

It will be a minimum of 8 weeks before there is enough data to really know growth of infection rate and resultant mortality. NOT engaging in doom here…just laying out the basic math problem in play. It would be 3 months before we know it’s bogus, ie. not much case growth above the normal background of flu season.

The CDC has been a whorehouse of bureaucrats for a long time, 90’s at the latest. And, I’ve spent too much time in boardrooms over the years to believe in the capability of C-suite natives to understand power functions. Too, their hubris (often greed) cannot be overstated.

I find myself in the camp of those who believe that this is a “Charlie Foxtrot” totally unsurprising in today’s world.

Look to your own preps and be prepared to stay in for awhile. Probably you won’t have to but there is no harm to the approach.

And, I am going to make up some of HSF’s concoction just to have it ready!

Da P

Mary Christine
Mary Christine
January 27, 2020 11:56 am

https://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2020/01/dont-be-too-sure.html
Don’t Be Too Sure
Don’t be too sure that the coronavirus will blow over and have no effect on global growth.
If there is anything that characterizes this moment in history, it’s complacency: everyone’s so sure that current trend lines will continue, onward and upward, and risk has been tamed for the foreseeable future.
Don’t be too sure.
1. Don’t be too sure that the coronavirus will blow over and have no effect on global growth.
2. Don’t be too sure that “the Fed has our back” so stocks will always resume their steady climb after every spot of bother.
3. Don’t be too sure that the official Chinese pronouncements that the coronavirus is contained are actually accurate.
4. Don’t be too sure that there won’t be a second and far more lethal advance of the coronavirus once all the overseas Chinese who went home for Lunar New Year return to their jobs in the U.S., Europe, Southeast Asia, etc.
5. Don’t be too sure that people will respond to the natural fears of the coronavirus by rushing out to buy a new iPhone, vehicle, etc.
6. Don’t be too sure that bubbles in over-valued stocks and housing won’t pop.
7. Don’t be too sure that global tourism won’t take a body-blow from the spread of the coronavirus.
8. Don’t be too sure that the risks of the coronavirus spreading can be assessed by anyone with any accuracy.
9. Don’t be too sure that the U.S. economy is bullet-proof and so President Trump is a shoo-in for re-election in November 2020.
10. Don’t be too sure that the citizenry’s tolerance for Fed-driven wealth-income inequality is as limitless as the Fed’s balance sheet.
11. Don’t be too sure that the super-low unemployment rate is a reliable measure of business confidence or the health of millions of small businesses.
12. Don’t be too sure that the Fed’s vaunted “wealth effect” won’t reverse.
13. Don’t be too sure that all risks are known and have been discounted.
14. Don’t be too sure that the global health system is capable of dealing with the spread of the coronavirus.
15. Don’t be too sure that central banks’ lowering interest rates is going to reverse a global recession.
16. Don’t be too sure your favored tech stock won’t crater as over-valuation mania is replaced by fear.

gman
gman
January 27, 2020 11:59 am

what, 19000 infected and 400 deaths? oh good grief, that’s typical, happens every year. what’s the big deal? this “corona virus” panic sounds like doom porn. like we don’t get enough of that already.

oldtimer505
oldtimer505
January 27, 2020 12:36 pm

I suggest that this corona virus has reached the level of a spectators sport. Unless a vaccine or cure is developed it will burn its way through the population until it finds a natural resistance. If neither of those things happen then mankind has finally found the loaded cylinder in the revolver.

TampaRed
TampaRed
January 27, 2020 1:26 pm

my wife had to have day surgery today & i was stuck in the waiting room 4 a couple of hours–
the tv was on the local cable provider’s all news station–i don’t recall a word about the corona virus situation–
plenty of kobe,plenty of impeachment,no corona virus–

niebo
niebo
  TampaRed
January 27, 2020 2:26 pm

And why the difference between this outbreak and the any-number-of “nothingburgers” like the measles outbreak last year? The one that has seen the “vax rights” of religious objectors pitched off the balcony? The year before was swine flu swine flu swine flu or was it bird flu bird flu bird flu and swine was the year before that? Either way, i think you get my point. Sometimes what concerns me is what THEY don’t talk about. Like the solar minimum and the crappy harvest this year. Nary a word, unless you know where to look. Bean shortages? Price of potatoes? The USDA clinging with a deathgrip to its BS “projected numbers” for corn? SO, this a real issue but THEY are mum.

Makes ME wonder.

Da Perfessor
Da Perfessor
  TampaRed
January 27, 2020 5:06 pm

My point exactly, Tampa…

I am not around “news” of any kind all that much. So when I first heard about it, I checked the webs…lots of stuff from all points on the “alt-spectrum”.

Then I went and did a search of major news outlet pages….not anywhere near the top of the line up just a bit way down to fill a gap on the page.

CDC had their “No big deal” flag flying but you had to search their site hard for it.

It does not sniff like an op.

Da P

Mygirl....Maybe
Mygirl....Maybe
  Da Perfessor
January 27, 2020 6:03 pm

Nope, it sniffs like an attempted ploy to play down the seriousness of the situation. Remember Ebola? 24/7 new coverage, all kinds of images of medical camps, hazmat suited folks spraying bleach and sickly folk lying by gates and walls. This go round? Minimal coverage by MSM….guess the impeachment debacle and Kobe’s untimely death are far more important.

WestcoastDeplorable
WestcoastDeplorable
January 27, 2020 11:12 pm

I’ve been checking this site today and the infected increased from just under 2,500 to where it stands as of this writing 4,474. If that progression continues, the number will easily cross 50k by midday tomorrow. Not good.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6