YOU’RE ON YOUR OWN

Guest Post by Ol’ Remus

Coronavirus isn’t Ebola or the Black Plague, it’s this year’s flavor of the flu. Before this strain appeared, the CDC says from October 1, 2019 to mid-January of this year there have been 8,200 to 20,000 flu deaths in the US. The average per year is about 36,000. Coronavirus won’t be all that special until we see numbers substantially above these.

As in every flu season, the usual precautions are your best bet. You know the drill. Stay away from crowds, wash yer hands, eat yer peas, get yer sleep. Apparently it’s exceptionally contagious, even during its long incubation period. If your situation warrants it consider N95 or N100 masks and nitrile gloves. Don’t get paranoid, but have a worst-case plan for long term isolation and the supplies to support it. The worst of the “worst-case” would have it mutating to a more lethal form.

Some sources say it has an R0 of about 5, which is top-of-the-chart contagious. True? I don’t know. One source says the Wuhan coronavirus fatality rate has leaped to 15%, and the infection rate among those exposed is 83%. True? I don’t know. But I do know there’s something about an epidemic that brings out the apocalyptic in people. It could be because truth is the other Patient Zero.

Understand, the true mortality rate is the number of deaths per total number of patients when they contracted the flu, not per total number of patients when they died. The latter skews the mortality rate downward during the run up. Further, we can’t know if many or even most cases are too mild to warrant a diagnosis to begin with, which would drastically skew the mortality rate upward. Nor do national and international agencies generally release their best data to the public on a timely basis. The point is, the numbers themselves are as unreliable as those who have the authority to act on them.

Don’t assume disease control agencies can materially limit a flu pandemic, or even intend to. When confronted with a potentially dangerous new strain they invariably forfeit valuable time with inaction and comforting denials until the best opportunity for containment has passed. Then we see theatric but mostly useless gestures to reassure us they’re “doing something”.

On the other hand, some web sites sensationalize and speculate from the get-go. High end numbers are cited and thrown into the echo chamber, stats from the 1918 flu disaster are trotted out, wood cuts from medieval times get reworked into dark memes, dire but seemingly plausible rumors are passed around, the tired “bring out your dead” video clip is revived, and so forth. Unfortunately, this is different from being wrong.

Which will it be? As we say around here, a man with a watch knows what time it is. A man with two watches is never sure. You’re on your own, as are we all.

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28 Comments
Vixen Vic
Vixen Vic
January 28, 2020 4:03 pm

I love Ol Remus and the Woodpile Report. He brings highlights from all over the web on many different issues. And he has his own nuggets of wisdom, such as this essay, which is exactly right.

Mygirl....Maybe
Mygirl....Maybe
January 28, 2020 4:03 pm

Ol’ Remus is great. This disease isn’t nearly as benign as he makes it out to be but his suggestions for being prepared because, essentially, we are on our own, is spot on.

gman
gman
January 28, 2020 4:50 pm

“But I do know there’s something about an epidemic that brings out the apocalyptic in people.”

thus doom porn. it sells.

and face it, a lot of people have been waiting for “the end of the world!” for over a decade now, some for several decades (“a country boy can surviiiiiiiiiiiive ….”), and they’re getting a little tired of it. and some are … well, they’re getting a little desperate too, they’ve been so very patient for so very long now but they want to open fire so very very badly ….

Anonymous
Anonymous
  gman
January 28, 2020 5:04 pm

You know these individuals?

gman
gman
  Anonymous
January 28, 2020 5:18 pm

they advertise themselves, here and elsewhere. many don’t hide it at all. for these, it’s all about them, they the flying eagles and the rest of us are snuffling morons, so they see no objective reason to hide anything. the reason reasonable people don’t recognize the “flying eagles'” clear statements is … well, because they’re reasonable and don’t expect or look for that kind of attitude in anyone, and if they do recognize it they can’t believe it and so just dismiss it. but those individuals are out there and they’re ready to go, 1,000,000 cartridges of ammo and one shot one kill on the mind and they’re not kidding in the least.

Voting for Trump cured my E.D. (EC)
Voting for Trump cured my E.D. (EC)
  gman
January 28, 2020 5:35 pm

I was surmising last week about how convenient the epidemic alarm would be to start herding the hoi polloi into slaughter pens. No need for courts, simply use the authorization the government gave itself to kill u.s. citizens in the interest of public safety or the national interest. They just need a reason, which is why I called 1/20 today’s 9/11. A national emergency and the last vestiges of freedom as you knew it will be erased; comply or die.

M G
M G
  Voting for Trump cured my E.D. (EC)
January 28, 2020 7:56 pm

I suggest some therapy sessions with a good specialist for that E.D. issue and buy yourself some horny goat weed.

Now, I visited my doctor this week for nonflu-related reasons. He gripes at me because I won’t get a flu shot but, except for the last year I was in USAF, I’ve never had the flu. And I got it then because I had to get the vaccination.

I asked “Doctor” (no more Popeye Doyle… he seriously has issues about being called that!) about the Chinese ability to contain the disease. He said they can contain it there better than here because there they can make stubborn assholes get their vaccinations. I’ve decided we will just not leave the ranch until this contagion blows by.

I still don’t catch viruses. I grew up eating too many homegrown turnips, leeks and other things I now pay a fortune for at local markets. But, my immune system has always been pretty good. I think it was fresh milk from our own cow and vegetables and root herbs from our garden that did it, but my son is the same way and he grew up on oatmeal and mac’n’cheese.

Doctor’s nurse gave me one of those looks and said the CDC would like to “order” vaccinations for everyone in the country if it becomes an “emergency.” Whether that means anything is beyond me but I know Doctor would vaccinate me if he could.

ILuvCO2
ILuvCO2
  M G
January 28, 2020 9:05 pm

I consider forced vaccination into my blood stream as tyrannical as taking away my guns, and neither is happening unless I am fucking dead.

mark
mark
  M G
January 28, 2020 10:57 pm

Every year I refuse the Flu shot at the VA…I have also refused multiple Shingles shots (I treat it successfully with Colloidal Silver) yearly pneumonia shots, and a prescription for high blood pressure that I brought down through diet –it wasn’t that high anyway.

I guess one day I’ll accept embalming fluid…but I intend to give them the silent treatment to show them how pissed off I am.

Mygirl....Maybe
Mygirl....Maybe
  gman
January 28, 2020 6:28 pm

whut?

gman
gman
  Mygirl....Maybe
January 28, 2020 7:18 pm

“whut?”

you sound like a reasonable person.

Mygirl....Maybe
Mygirl....Maybe
  Mygirl....Maybe
January 28, 2020 8:15 pm

I just love how comments get bounced around…and….nevermind….

ILuvCO2
ILuvCO2
January 28, 2020 9:02 pm

Bull fucking shit. Most deaths they attribute to the “flu” are from pneumonia or other complications. They up the numbers to sell their deadly flu shots. Wake the fuck up.

Voting for Trump cured my road rage (EC)
Voting for Trump cured my road rage (EC)
  ILuvCO2
January 28, 2020 9:17 pm

The Chinks in Hong Kong say they have the corona virus flu shot already, it ain’t rocket science, they cultivate it in a protein medium like egg white and cook the fuck out of it to get an inert virus. They tell us it’s just the shell, I always wondered how they managed to scrape the shell off the virus. Anyway, they have the flu shot cooked already, they just need a couple of years to test it on animals and humans. Uhm, how can US labs have a new flu shot each year? They have them on the shelf and pick and choose which type will deploy with its payload that year.

mark
mark
  Voting for Trump cured my road rage (EC)
January 28, 2020 9:23 pm

EC,

Chemtrail spray, needle, GMO…what ya gonna DEW?

Killing Floor: the Business of Animal Slaughter

Voting for Trump cured my toe jam (EC)
Voting for Trump cured my toe jam (EC)
  mark
January 29, 2020 9:38 pm

That was tough to read.

Anonymous
Anonymous
January 28, 2020 10:32 pm

If I wanted to start a panic I’d say ” IT’S IN THE WATER!!”

gilberts
gilberts
January 28, 2020 11:21 pm

For those of you who haven’t seen them, there are a bunch of social media videos coming out of China from people showing just what’s happening. I suspect most of them are illegal and could put their owners in big trouble, because China has stringent anti-rumor laws. Some of these people are openly criticizing the government, which is yuuge. This virus has the possibility of destabilizing the PRC. Some people claim the Chernobyl disaster helped bring about the collapse of the USSR a few years later. Could this outbreak do something to similarly damage the prestige and power of the PRC (in China) and wreck the social contract (such as it is) in China? We can hope.

The Situation in the Streets:
This is a compilation.

The streets.

Compilation. First shot shows what looks like a doctor or nurse collapsed on the floor. And there’s an interesting shot of a team moving what looks like a wheeled isolation box towards an ambulance. Or it’s a dunking tank. Hard to say.

Dead body in a bag being unloaded by guys in oversuits at a hospital.

Man collapsed in street.

Man collapsed on train.

Girl in Wuhan walking around showing the dead city. Everything is closed and nobody is outside.

The Situation in the Hospitals:
People in crowded hospital yelling at staff. Note the staff in their oversuits and face masks at the front desk.

Patient with convulsions in Wuhan hospital.

Massive crowd surrounding paramedics.

Wuhan Paramedics and cops evacuating sick people.

The Breaking Point:
Wuhan nurse has breakdown.

Wuhan doctor has angry fit.

Wuhan nurse’s tearful message to the world. Don’t ever trust the government. The virus is worse than the news is telling you. We’re breaking down.

Compilation of hospital staff breakdowns and pleas for help.

The Situation for the Survivors:

Panicked shoppers in grocery store in Wuhan. Imagine this in your town. This is why you should prep before the emergency arrives.

More video of the masked guy. He’s really putting his neck on the line to criticize the commies.

gilberts
gilberts
January 28, 2020 11:33 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpjajoaWxhM
You should see this brave Chinese guy criticizing the govt. He has a lot of info to share, including the chaos in the hospitals. He claims they are so overcrowded, they stopped trying to confirm cases and are just sending people home or letting them die. If you manage to get seen, he says they just give you some placebos and send you on your way. He also says there’s no gas and no public transportation, so you can’t get to a hospital if you wanted to. And he lays it on the line, announcing he and his friends in their 20s and 30s aren’t brainwashed and they all know what their country really is, but flesh and blood is nothing against full metal jackets and tanks.

You know, I think I’ve seen this guy’s dad on TV. It was a while back, but I remember he was out shopping in Beijing one nice June day in 1989 and on his way home with two bags of groceries and he happened to stop a tank column to ask for directions.

The wonder of it all
The wonder of it all
January 30, 2020 10:30 pm

Speculation from the non scientific community can be fanciful.