Mathematical grounds for optimism concerning the coronavirus, but not governments.
Guest post by Robert Gore at Straight Line Logic
This is a companion article to “The Last Gasp”
One of the things this coronavirus outbreak has revealed is widespread mathematical illiteracy. Early on, the number of cases was said to be growing exponentially, which was true, but only for a short while. As an equation, exponential growth is of the form f(x)=ax (x is an exponent, I cannot type a superscript), where a and x are both greater than one. With exponential growth, assuming days are the time period, the daily change is greater each day, but the percentage change remains constant. The sequence 2, 4, 8, 16, 32 … is exponential, f(x)=a2 (the exponent is 2) where a at time 0 (I cannot type a subscript) = 1. The change between numbers grows, but the percentage change remains 100 percent. As a graph, exponential growth is a curve bending upwards. Viruses typically show exponential growth early on, but that cannot continue or eventually the virus would take over the entire planet and then the entire universe.
When the percentage change starts decreasing, there is no longer exponential growth. What has happened with the coronavirus is that the curves have tended to shift from exponential progressions to linear. Linear progressions are straight lines, described by the equation f(x)=ax, where x is a multiplier. 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 is an arithmetic sequence, where a at time 0 = 1 and x = 2. With linear progressions, the daily absolute change remains constant, and the daily percentage change shrinks. Most countries’ coronavirus graphs have already shifted from exponential to linear. The US’s is no longer exponential, but it’s not yet linear.
The next stage is when the daily absolute changes start decreasing. The progression is no longer linear, it bends down. This is what happened in China, even if one incorporates a fudge factor for allegedly fake statistics, and South Korea, which nobody suggests has fudged statistics. South Korea’s graph and widely acclaimed success in stopping the coranavirus are due to its widespread testing early on and its isolation only of people who had tested positive. That should serve as a model for the rest of the world, not lockdowns for the healthy and infected alike. Such lockdowns keep everyone inside, where they are often breathing recirculated air and exposing themselves to the coronavirus from people who are infected but have not tested so and consequently, have not been isolated. Lockdowns also keep people from sunshine, fresh air, and exercise, all of which boost the immune system. I’m grateful to Bill Sardi for the insight on the lockdowns.
The good news is that over the last few days, many countries linear graphs have started to bend down, even where the restrictions are most draconian. Italy’s daily confirmed cases have started to decline. This may only be statistical noise, but it is happening in many different countries with different medical protocols and statistical procedures, which suggests it’s not. The global graph is linear, but as more countries’ daily change numbers decline, the global daily change number will also start to decline and the graph will begin to bend down.
When, not if, the US joins the declining group will depend on how widely effective tests are performed, how many jurisdictions enact lockdowns, and how stringently those lockdowns are enforced. If testing increases from current numbers, it may show more confirmed cases. However, the daily increase in confirmed cases will attenuate as total actual cases do. Lockdowns will increase actual cases, and the more they are enforced, the more they will increase them. Regardless of testing and lockdowns, the US’s actual cases will first go linear (on current, admittedly imperfect numbers we’re already close) and then the curve will bend downward. The curve is certainly not exponential.
Which means that many of the projections both globally and for the US, based as they are on exponential growth that no longer exists, will be off the mark by orders of magnitude. As this becomes clearer, the dictatorial types will panic and try to enact still more dictatorial measures. The time to oppose them is now, with everything you’ve got. Please circulate this article and yesterday’s article, The Last Gasp, from either SLL or TBP as widely as possible. Sunlight, the wonder drug, is the best cure for ignorance.
Source: John Hopkins University Covid-19 website
“2, 4, 6, 8, 10 is a geometric sequence” – I believe you meant arithmetic.
Dan,
Yes, you are correct. Jim, is there anyway you can change geometric to arithmetic in that paragraph (2nd par., 4th sentence, change “a geometric” to “an arithmetic”)? I wouldn’t ask for just a typo, but I’m trying to be mathematically correct. Thank you.
I have made the change on SLL.
Darn it, Dan, you have showed how many cobwebs are in the old brain. You are absolutely correct (after cheating and getting a reference for verification-see link).
As the natural exponential growth of the bug is impeded-by natural causes (such as by warming temperatures, more sunshine exposure every day in the northern hemisphere) or by human intervention (such as lockdowns, social distancing, washing hands) the mathematical equation gets more complicated much quicker-see the second link regarding exponential growth and decay.
https://www.mathsisfun.com/algebra/sequences-sums-geometric.html
https://www.mathsisfun.com/algebra/exponential-growth.html
Linear sequence is so much more intuitive to me than arithmetic sequence, but I guess that’s what they call it. Geometric sequence is sorta weird. Why not exponential sequence? Once we look at the ‘rule’ or formula, it’s obviously linear and exponential, respectively. As a philosopher I must protest the needlessly complicated semantics. Change it for me, world! Thank you!
“the sequence 2, 4, 8, 16, 32 … is exponential”
Actually, I believe this is a geometric progression. Each successive number is multiplied by 2. Or each could be multipied by 3, or 4, etc.
An exponential progression would be 2, 4, 16, 256, 65,536 …
Each successive number is squared. Or each could be cubed, or “n” raised to the 4th power, or “n” raised to the 5 th power, etc.
Correct me if I’m mistaken.
In any case, Robert’s overarching point remains valid.
Lars
Geometric sequences are discrete, the x axis on a graph would only be whole numbers, while exponential functions are continuous. What you call an exponential progression, 2,4,16,256, 65,536, is not an exponential progression, it cannot be described by the function f(x) = ax where x is the exponent. Your progression would be f(x) = ax2 where x is the exponent of a and 2 is the exponent of x. The difference between a geometric and exponential function is that in a geometric progression, the as are whole numbers, while for the exponential, the as are continuous, but they are both described by the equation f(x) = ax or more correctly f(x) =bax where b can be a constant.. I do not know if there is a special term for the progression you describe.
https://www.skytopia.com/project/fractal/2mandelbulb.html
maff ain’t all that hard for god
course you ain’t god just robert bore
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/
“The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus. “On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity – many had two or three,” he says. ”
It’s all in the presentation.
They died from the virus, until the bullshit artists got involved.
As a former boss used to say “Liars figure and figures lie.” Just ask me what outcome you want and I will present the figures to prove the case.
“When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.”
Just wanted to add a quote somewhere in here. Today has been like some sort of brown acid flashback
Lol! Ginger, are you speaking from experience?
LOL, the only other guy I’ve ever heard say that is Stu, who writes about Nostradamus on his site and Urban Survival.
I believe it is a quote from Saint Hunter S. Thompson.
This apply to gov figures too…
Government figures are usually calculated by unicorns, using fairy dust.
Is this the test that’s been used?
The one with up to 83% false positives?
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32133832/?fbclid=IwAR1x58i9MUS16isOtdzAOJHr1TZNpVz4kw-6S5mtyRG_MUg3XVK_RajavAI
https://www.ibtimes.sg/china-hiding-covid-19-death-toll-21-million-cell-phones-disappeared-why-41580
Makes one wonder if “test” matters. . . .
Thumbs down?
For asking the question?
Must have hit a nerve for someone.
seebee,
how many of the 88% who have pre existing conditions would have died w/o the chaina virus to push them over the edge?
All.
I’ve been feeling more optimistic lately in the hope that the “Trumpcure” will be the salvation that we need. It may be only wishful thinking, and I know that we still have a long way to go, but just seeing the possibility is encouraging. The growth phase of the virus is alarming, but it will level off, and I believe that we’ll see things return to normal faster than we had originally thought.
I was a little outraged to read that the governor of Nevada banned the use of anti malarials for Wuflu. My Mom lives in Vegas. Sometimes, it’s just too obvious that the left wants to kill us all.
We’ve been ready here in NW Arizona for years, I hope that this will be a wake up call to many outside of the TBP community.
But it is important to remember that the real pain for most will come from the crashing economy. Just know that there is a big difference between what is happening with the virus and the economy. Beware of what the big chief with red hair says, he has been lying/leading everyone on for the past 3+ yrs.
Just to be clear. The president is not, in any way, responsible for any of the lockdowns. That is caused by the States issuing orders for lockdown. So the said governors can all get together in a few weeks and discuss how they are going to 1) blame Trump for their ignorance 2) beg Trump for more money.
Blah blah blah fuckity BLAH. Even the middle of the road stance – which is where I am – argued to close the borders when Russia did. That way if there was a risk the virus was legitimate, you’re mitigating some of the healthcare and economic failures.
The Trump Administration is so incompetent that a fucking journalist had to drive down and tell him to take the virus seriously.
No one forced him to hire these assclowns. No one forced him to become POTUS. No one forced him to allow his enemies to continue to breathe (LITERALLY) for 4 years. No one is forcing him to spend like a drunken sailor in a Thai brothel. Trump can’t wave the federalism flag now.
Solid conclusion, but I have no idea what to make of that story. I think tuning out will make us more informed. This shit be crazy. That’s got to be a smear tactic, right?
Manchurian Candidate?
No, Occam’s Razor. Scared for his children, delegated too much authority, unwilling to risk tossing out the baby with the bathwater. Although at this point that baby looks like Rosemary’s Baby.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_M._Lieber
Federal arrest
On January 28, 2020, Lieber was charged with two federal counts of making a materially false, fictitious and fraudulent statement about his links to a Chinese university. According to the Department of Justice’s charging document[78], there are two counts of alleged crime committed by Lieber. First, during an interview by DoD on April 24, 2018, Lieber was asked whether he was involved in the Thousand Talents Program. Lieber stated that “he was never asked to participate in the Thousand Talents Program”, adding that “he ‘wasn’t sure’ how China categorized him.” The DOJ believes that Lieber’s statement was false, because an intercepted email dated June 27, 2012, from Wuhan University of Technology (“WUT”) included a contract for Lieber to sign. Second, in November 2018, the NIH inquired of Harvard University about Lieber’s foreign affiliations. In January 2019, Harvard interviewed Lieber and reported to NIH that Lieber “had no formal association with WUT” after 2012. The DOJ believes Lieber’s statement was false. Lieber was charged with two counts of violating 18 U.S.C. § 1001(a)(2), one on April 24, 2018, and one in January 2019 for making the allegedly false statements.
During his arraignment, authorities executed search warrants at the home and office in Lexington, Massachusetts. The charges against Lieber carry a sentence of five years in federal prison and a quarter million dollar fine. Lieber has been placed on paid administrative leave by Harvard.[79]
When they shoot him, we’ll talk.
If you don’t know how many people have (or had) it, then how could anyone ever determine the difference between morbidity rates and fatalities?
Every bit of information we’ve seen seems to be entirely dependent on both those who present themselves for testing and those who are tested rather than the population of those exposed who may experience symptoms or those who never even notice, neither of which require care.
Someone show me where I am missing something.
Here’s where we will really see what’s what-
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/22/coronavirus-outbreak-new-york-city-jails-rikers-island
An infected population, living in sub optimal conditions, without the chance of leaving the control group. Within the next month or so the number of dead- if present RO rates are to be trusted- should be in excess of 700.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say only Harvey Weinstein succumbs to the dreaded Wuhan Flu.
Does that make it Wuicide?
Is that a sub group of Arkancide?
At least he will not have to fake his own suicide.
You’re spot on HSF. You’re not missing anything at all, the talking and scribbling heads are. As I’m sure you know, go with your brain on this until someone logically proves otherwise, and only then revise your hypothesis.
It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary… or… image of himself depends on his not understanding it.
The only way you could ever be presented with something you’d consider logical on this matter is for an isolated community to not react at all and go about business as usual, and none of them are going to do that.
Because they’ve already seen the results in communities that were conducting business as usual before they realized they had a problem.
https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/03/nyc-to-release-more-than-1000-prison-inmates-due-to-coronavirus-concerns.html
We may never really find out cause the bastard is releasing them. Cause he cares. I guess mixing them in with the general public is ok.
A strong case can be made for America designating its own Elba Island.
This is all probably just a plot to kill ol’ Harvey…
Stop making sense, Farmer. It will just get you in trouble.
There was a contained control group on the Diamond Princess
karl’s article explains things quite well
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=238638
I think more (*more*) than just Weinstein will die from it, but he will be in an elite group. With tom hanks and any other pedo/vore/adrenochrome addict in hollywood/Wall Street/Broadway.
When all the elders are dead and history with them . . . then we’ll know the true extent of the Wuhanivirus
–
We’ve already had a control group that shows the results……the Diamond Princess.
Karl’s article spells it out pretty clearly
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=238638
And 2500 new cases in Lombardy argue that Italy has not yet reached the peak….
Because that just happened naturally, entirely due to the nature of the virus.
Robert you are being disingenuous here. I hate the lockdowns… but acting like the lockdowns aren’t the primary reason for the numbers you are touting as no big deal, why bother with the lockdowns is utterly bizarre.
Guess what other numbers are going to show downtrends over the past couple of months. EVERY communicable disease we track.
Hate the lockdowns, I agree. But the way you are presenting these numbers is wrong. You aren’t presenting a case of “here is what things look like if we behave according to A pattern, here is what they are according to B pattern, here is what they are according to C pattern… and I choose C pattern” which shows the costs and benefits.
You *only* have numbers to work with from the lockdown. Oh wait, no you don’t… you *also* have multiple numbers from areas before their lockdowns. You have a city in the US running out of morgue space already, even with efforts to reduce, because it is uniquely compressed for fastest transmission prior to reacting.
It isn’t a “lockdown and these numbers” or “no lockdown and these numbers” situation.
I’ve normally enjoyed reading your stuff even if I disagree but these articles have been disastrous.
The lockdown is to control the number (reduce) of cases so there are enough ventilators. If everyone got sick at the same time mortality rate would skyrocket. That is called flattening the curve making this last longer. There is a reason they want this to last longer! The election! Hide Biden’s dementia. Allow vote by mail. And again trump is complicit In allowing his enemies to operate in plain sight with Impunity. Just like not going after hillary while they went after flynn and others. He calls himself a fighter but he has not fought once…..
So far over 95% of those put on ventilators have died, not a very good strategy. At the best of times only 50% of those placed on ventilators survive to leave the hospital. It is only a strtegy to suck another million out of the patient and their insurance, one of the big reasons that over 70% of all medical expenses are incurred in the last 7 days of life.
The lockdown is to control the citizenry. The virus is incidental.
Anonymous
The point I make about the lock downs is that they are counterproductive. I am certainly not attributing to those lock downs the attenuation in the numbers of new cases. Many of the countries that have locked down the hardest–Italy, Spain, France–have shown the slowest and least attenuation. They at least seem to be showing the declining number of new cases, although as I state in the article, that is based on only a few days and could be noise.
There is an empirical question here for which we are not going to get an answer. It seems clear that the South Korean methodology–widespread testing and tracking and isolation only for those confirmed with the disease–works far better than the indiscriminate lock downs. The interesting question: would just letting people roam freely while treating those who get sick and develop severe symptoms result in a lower or higher percentage of mortality than the current lock down regime? Obviously the laissez faire alternative is not going to be implemented so we’ll never know. Given what I believe is the counterproductive nature of lock downs (not to mention the shredding of civil liberties and the economic carnage they impose) it cannot be treated as a settled question. Of course, given the anti-scientific, anti-rationality mindset that now prevails, favored biases and projections are “settled science” (see global warming). The scientific method has been discarded and proof of anything is no longer required–feelings uber alles.
This is all based on extremely bad data, Robert…e.g.
, for example 100 excess deaths in one town during the period, only 2 ruled to be a result of C-19, because people die at home, or in nursing homes, and have never been tested….When everybody is tested, you’ll have something to work with….
Relying on positive test results would be to use extremely bad data.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/
The US is not South Korea. You would hate the measures the South Korean governments have had in place prior to this event that they put to use to contain their situation. The government has the ability to openly reach into your life there in ways the US could only dream of doing openly and it is broadly accepted culturally as not only necessary but good.
Furthermore it is a homogeneous culture where cultural shaming and reporting to authorities for not following authority commands (such as wearing face masks) is standard… and people who were found not wearing face masks were liable for fines or imprisonment.
South Korea already had in place rather totalitarian processes they could execute quickly due to previous experiences with infections exploding… along with a generally different cultural attitude (private property? haha no…). You get a text from the police saying you are suspected of coming into contact with someone and are to quarantine… and most people go “Sure thing!” whether the information is accurate or not.
It wasn’t a Barney Fife “Aww shucks, you tested positive, let’s take you to ma’s house and cook you some chicken soup”. It was “obey or go to jail” and that is culturally accepted.
The US and South Korea are miles apart. Try enacting South Korea’s methods in LA, SF, and NYC and see how far that gets you. We can’t even get kids to maybe skip Spring Break this year.
You are still an utter disaster at taking context into account.
That said… my primary point is your number comparisons are fundamentally broken. Not discussing whether the measures are good or not or whether there are alternatives.
Your comparisons between Corona and Flu are *flawed* beyond repair. You would need to make comparisons between:
– Non-quarantined Corona and Flu
– Quarantined Corona and Flu
In addition to the above flaw, your other flaw is not accounting for how the flu numbers are PROJECTIONS, not confirmed cases. So you are comparing numbers which take a smaller set and project upward from there vs numbers where only confirmed cases are counted but projections are ignored.
Your number comparisons are flawed. If you ever get those correct, then I will be happy to discuss the measures taken.
I don’t know what country you think you live in.
This is just a handful cobbled together in 3 minutes:
https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/las-mayor-says-he-will-cut-off-water-and-power-to-businesses-that-dont-comply-with-the-coronavirus-lockdown/ar-BB11JY3H
42 U.S. Code § 271. Penalties for violation of quarantine laws
https://www.cnet.com/news/governments-could-track-covid-19-lockdowns-through-social-media-posts/
https://chicago.cbslocal.com/2020/03/25/beck-lightfoot-on-stay-at-home-order-citations-to-be-issued-parks-could-be-shut-down/
Chicago Mayor Warns Those Who Go Outside To Exercise Risk Arrest…
https://www.kveo.com/news/local-news/county-wide-curfew-starts-saturday-at-midnight-fines-up-to-1000-or-jailtime/
BROWNSVILLE, TX
The curfew is set from midnight to 5 AM and not complying could lead to fines of up to a $1,000 and even jail time. The new travel restriction is set to begin this Saturday at midnight.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-state-by-state-guide-to-coronavirus-lockdowns-11584749351
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/24/coronavirus-terrorism-justice-department-147821
https://www.infowars.com/man-who-licked-products-at-walmart-charged-with-making-terrorist-threat/
Man Who Licked Products at WALMART Charged with Terror Threat…
Granted, the U.K. is worse … so far:
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/coronavirus-patients-charged-attempted-murder-21756317
You aren’t using scientific method either at the most ground important point in developing your perspective to then develop an argument.
Several people in these threads keep pointing out why your comparisons between various illnesses are not correct which are misleading yourself and others.
They are running out of morgue space because they have stopped funerals, because of the lockdowns. You seem to be as intelligent as they are, which is not much.
Incorrect. People in NY can still have funerals, they just can’t have large ones. Though they have adjusted by allowing virtual connections for extended gatherings.
The individual hospitals are having them come in at a rate faster than they are prepared to handle before they can be transferred to the broader longer term morgues, cremated, etc. None of the reports of reaching capacity in New York for both handling patients as well as storing the bodies before they can be relocated have said “Well families aren’t having funerals”.
That’s in Madrid. News from Bloomberg that is 100% hype and b.s.
This one was about NYC — NYC morgues near capacity, DHS briefing warns
In which they bury this paragraph:
“You have a city in the US running out of morgue space already”
Are you referring to this article:
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/25/dhs-briefing-nyc-morgues-near-capacity-148259
Cuz it’s total horseshit, as you’d have found out if you read more than the headline. About 5 paragraphs in is this:
FAKE NEWS — Panic up front, actual facts buried within and downplayed as much as possible.
Are you really unfamiliar with this tactic?
All news is fake news now. Especially now.
All within public health, nothing outside public health , nothing against public heath.
https://www.rt.com/news/484098-coronavirus-fatality-rates-exaggerated-italy/
“… the key point to take away from this is that the 10 percent mortality rate being reported from Italy is grossly misleading. It is being waved around by the mainstream media as a bit of old-fashioned sensationalism at best, and a calculated tool of propaganda at worst. A figure like 0.3 percent barely higher than the common flu, simply does not have the same power in getting people to swallow unprecedented legislation that gives the state tremendous new powers in a host of new areas … all in the name of public health of course.”
Umm.
This is wrong.
This is not the mortality rate. It’s also not the CFR.
To estimate the CFR, you can look at the number of resolved cases – recovered and dead. As of this morning, Italy was reporting 7505 deaths and 9632 recovered.
The important thing with Italy, and the US among others, is that only those cases severe enough to require hospitalization are tested. Based on the S, Korean data, about 15%-20% of cases require hospitalization – so the Italians likely are only catching about 15%-20% of the cases.
So, you have to account for this in estimating CFR. The deaths+recovered = 17,137
Dividing deaths by this would give you a CFR of about 44% – which does give you an idea of what outcomes are likely for the hospitalized patients, but it’s not actually a good number for CFR in this instance.
However, when you presume they’re missing 80% of the cases because of their testing limitations, you multiply 17,137 by 5, giving you 85,685 as the likely number of recovered+dead.
Dividing 7503 by 85,685 yields a CFR estimate of 8.8%,
To estimate the mortality rate, you then need to know what portion of those people exposed to the disease are likely to become infected. We turn again to the South Korean data – 70% of the members of the S. Korean church group had been infected by the time the problem was noticed. This is the floor, it likely would have been greater than 70% if nothing had changed.
So, if 70% of the population becomes infected, and the CFR is 8.8%, 70% of 8.5% yields a mortality rate estimate of just over 6% for the low end of the estimate. It could be between 6% and 8.8%, depending on what portion of the populace actually gets infected.
This is just a point on the timeline, so expect it to change a bit over time.
But, FWIW, 6 percent is nothing to
sneeze
at. Sorry. had to.
Truism: Fucktards are always the most knowledgeable on any subject. (otherwise known as gamma bitches)
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/why-are-covid-19-death-rates-so-hard-to-calculate-experts-weigh-in#Why-calculating-the-death-rate-is-so-tricky
Experts define the case fatality rate as “the ratio of deaths occurring from a particular cause to the total number of cases due to the same cause.”
But, continues Prof. Edmunds, in the case of a “rapidly expanding epidemic,” the number of cases from a few weeks ago will always be much smaller than the current one, so “the true case fatality ratio will be higher.”
On the other hand, another bias evens the scale in the opposite direction.
“We do not report all the cases,” says Prof. Edmunds. “In fact, we only usually report a small proportion of them. If there are many more cases in reality, then the case fatality ratio will be lower.”
In conclusion, estimating the true case fatality ratio is “tricky,” says the researcher.
“What you can safely say […] is that if you divide the number of reported deaths by the number of reported cases [to get the case fatality ratio], you will almost certainly get the wrong answer.”
– Prof. John Edmund
At any given point in time there is a quantifiable death rate, though our ability to identify it is severely lacking. Meaning: there are a lot of variables in play at the same time (and some of those variables are currently unknown to us). One of the writers in the medicalnewstoday link makes what seems to be an accurate statement to the effect that when it is all over we will then have a better idea of the actual death rate.
Yep. We’ll know exactly what the death rate was when the dying is over.
If you can’t identify it, it’s not quantifiable.
Today’s unknowns may well become known as time progresses. The point: while things may be uncertain now that uncertainty should decrease in the future.
It may be three years from now before we know what today’s death rate is, ergo, it is quantifiable given enough time.
Prof. Edmunds makes the point that the CFR-even today-gets muddled because of different reference points for time are used by different analysts, both professional and not so professional.
No, it’s constant. There is always a 6.02214076×10²³ death rate.
I assume if the Nobel committee considers my nomination under the Old Timer’s Rule that you will vote for me.
Only if you stop taunting me with a misspelled name.
Just checking to see if you were paying attention. Next time I’ll use Amedeo for the handle.
I fart in your general direction, Avadadro.
Italy :
Total cases per million = 0.1%
Total deaths per million = 0.01
WHOA!!!! WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE !!!
Apparently the the first comment I made went to spam. I’ll try again.
“This is wrong.
In the case of Italy,dead divided by 74,386 infected gives a mortality rate of roughly 10 percent. ”
First off , ummm , you’re full of shit and add nothing to the conversation other than extra noise.
“Case fatality rate is calculated by dividing the number of deaths from a specified disease over a defined period of time by the number of individuals diagnosed with the disease during that time; the resulting ratio is then multiplied by 100 to yield a percentage. ”
https://www.britannica.com/science/case-fatality-rate
7,503 /74,386 X 100 = 10%
Only true with resolved cases. You don’t know if the unresolved cases will end in recovery or death – and you won’t until they recover or die.
Calculating the CFR with the total current cases in the middle of the epidemic doesn’t work because of this. We want to know about what percentage of the people infected will die, and we can’t wait until it’s all over.
“What you can safely say […] is that if you divide the number of reported deaths by the number of reported cases [to get the case fatality ratio], you will almost certainly get the wrong answer.”
This is what you did above – 7503/74,386 yielding 10%. It’s wrong because of the reasons I went through in my original post, which you apparently did not comprehend.
Unresolved , WTF is that? Is that the goal post being moved again, gamma boy ?
OK, say you go to the doctor with achey, sniffling, chest congestion , get tested and yep,you’ve got it. Doctor gives you whatever. You go home, take your medicine and voila, you feel better and never go back to the Doc again or you test positive, but are asymptomatic and thus are forever “unresolved.”
((( GASP))) how long will you be unresolved before you die? 1, 2, 5, 10, 40 years?
Just admit you don’t know jack shit about this disease or how to calculate the infections rate and quit pretending you do…for fucks sake.
You literally don’t understand what I’m saying.
https://voxday.blogspot.com/2017/07/the-iq-communications-gap.html
The resolved cases are the ones that are either a) recovered, or b) dead.
The unresolved cases are those that have not recovered or died – the people that are currently sick.
Are you willfully playing stupid, or do you genuinely not understand this?
You read but you don’t comprehend.
Wild estimates never made anyone sick.
All that don’t die eventually recover. Many who test positive and recover or even where never sick to begin with may never see a doctor again. I’m saying for morons like you who think every aspect of this virus can be collected as data and quantified. It simply can’t, hence the confusion which bureaucrats are using to lock us down and transfer trillions in wealth to their corporate campaign donors.
Even your metric of dividing deaths by recoveries is wrong. It is not 44%. The completed CFR is still 10% which is also exaggerated.
8215/80589 x 100 is 10%
What is the young to old death ratio factoring in morbidity. Is it 100:1 , 1000:1 or something else. And how does this fit into you magic CFR formula?
The Korean church infections means squat. There were a very physical church , laying on hands, hugging and other fervent up close and personal activity. Sure, 70% where infected , but hell they were literally swapping body fluids. No area outside of this type of cult church is ANYWHERE near a 70% infection rate. Besides Korea never did a lockdown nor a multi-trillion dollar wreath transfer and they seem to be recovering fine
You’re totally full of shit and simply want to appear to be something you’re not… a friggin’ gamma boy expert. Piss off.
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=238638
Damn People Are Stupid
That fits exactly what we’ve seen folks. It fits the Oxford model, it fits why South Korea was able to get a handle on this without a vaccine, it fits why China was able to release their lockdown and not have the virus immediately surge back and it fits why Japan did not get flattened. It fits Diamond Princess where people were dosed repeatedly and heavily, yet there were still a bunch of asymptomatic positives and a crap-ton of people who never got it. Further, because of its highly variable seriousness of infection depending on individual human factors, including ACE2 specifically, consumers of nicotine, those on high blood pressure medication and similar get hammered much worse than others. None of this, of course, would be true in a final product — they hadn’t finished their work to remove those undesirable elements yet, assuming they knew about them (thalidomide anyone?)
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=238643
ITALY IS A DISASTER!
[Comments enabled]
There have been 6,820 deaths allegedly from (really “with”) Coronavirus in Italy.
Italy isn’t lying, right — we can trust those numbers (unlike Iran.)
This is the poster child for America, and specifically NY and CA. It is informing our response. It is a horrible, frightening scenario and one we must avoid, therefore we are locking down cities, claiming “major disaster” status and all sorts of other things.
Ok.
Fact: 633,000 people died in Italy in 2018.
So Coronavirus, in the worst-hit Western nation in the world, has managed to kill about 1% as many people as die on an ordinary basis in Italy — and that assumes that Coronavirus actually caused all those deaths (hint: it didn’t.)
Let’s further assume before this is over that number doubles.
So Coronavirus will have killed two percent of all the people who die from all causes in Italy over a year’s time.
Two percent!
Given this fact should we:
1. Continue to sacrifice our economy for an escalation in death rate of 2% over what it is otherwise.
or
2. Immediately re-open our economy and sack any politician that refuses.
You choose America, because that really is what we’re talking about. Remember, Italy supposedly blew it, they’re the worst case, they overloaded their medical system, people died for lack of a vent, etc.
Yet these are the numbers.
Now choose.
https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b?shareType=nongift
The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.
If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.
“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said.
See here,gamma. Another wild estimator run completely off the rails. You two should get together and compare notes… because science , even if people are too ignorant to understand it.
https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model
Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection
“Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve. The model predicted far fewer deaths if lockdown measures — measures such as those taken by the British and American governments — were undertaken.
Based on both those revised estimates and the lockdown measures taken by the British government, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.
Ferguson’s change of tune comes days after Oxford epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta criticized the professor’s model.
“I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” Gupta said, according to the Financial Times.
“
Gupta? Are you serious?
Sunetra Guptra claims much higher prevalence, but is there?
If true, this should show up in the data. UK – 90,436 tests conducted; 8077 confirmed Wuhan-19 infections (as of Mar 24) – under 10% infected, and this is a group comprised of people most likely to be infected (traveled from hotspots, contact with known infected, etc.). If actually half the population were infected, as she claimed, at least around half of these people who were tested should have the virus, and it’s not anywhere close to that.
So, her claim is directly refuted by the available data: She is full of shit.
The UK is going to murder their, mostly white, pensioners to prop up Jewish financialism – because, at best, the people running the UK don’t care about the British people at all.
You clearly do not understand anything I posted, or even any of the other stuff you posted.
You’re the emotion-driven gamma retard here.
BTW, I never said the CFR was 44% – you should read my first post a few times until you understand it.
More sophistry…double down gammatard. I’m sure you got loads of bullshit left in you, because you are obviously full of it.
Your house of nonsense is crashing down. Better shore it up with more bullshit.
Even Birdface Birx is casting you adrift.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-reports-largest-jump-new-cases-deaths-apocalyptic-surge-rocks-new-york-hospitals
Dr. Birx said Thursday that 86% of tests run in the US so far have been negative, a lower rate than experts had expected.
Additionally, Dr. Birx played down some of the more dire predictions, including an Imperial College study that has circulated widely over the last week or so which called for 500k deaths in the UK. Dr. Birx noted that this number has “already been revised down to 20k”.
You’re the one flinging bullshit.
Guptra’s claims also fly in the face of the South Korean data. Maybe the virus has magically changed it’s behavior, just to suit your infantile inability to cope with reality?
Probably not.
I replied twice, but both went to spam. You win secret king.We’re all gonna die.
As the link shows, deaths in Italy have been grossly under-reported, NOT exaggerated…
Of course… Italian MSM… to be trusted beyond a shadow of a doubt….mooo
Sorry Robert, but you just revealed your mathematical illiteracy.
The function of new infections (per period x) is the exponential function
f(x) = R0 ^ x
Note: R0 for Coronavirus in unrestricted movement societies is estimated to be around 3.
We are currently reducing Ro for future days, but it still remains an exponential function!
(It could only ever become linear if we get to Ro=1 …which is about as likely as the Climate never changing again, i.e. Ro will either be larger or -best case- smaller than 1.)
RG is giving a French curve (younger folks may need to look it up) sort of view of how epidemics tend to go. No need to get pedantic.
What is amazing to me is how virtually all epidemics follow the same basic curve. Even Ebola, which when you read about it sounds almost like the Walking Dead in terms of infection and mortality rates as well as grisly deaths, tapers off after an initial scary rash of deaths and eventually burns out.
And there also was one Ebola case (or more) in pretty much every single county of the US, before it tapered off? Because that’s the case right now with Corona.
So do you think that might invalidate your comparison?
Not really. Very similar Bell curve, just with a much lower amplitude in terms of total cases for Ebola. Much higher Ro, yet burned out quicker. Again, not intuitive to me, but that’s how they seem to go; seems to imply that a higher virulence actually results in fewer infected.
Bell curve!
You may want to read up on that one, as a Bell curve is only a valid model if the single events (in our case: infections; in financial markets: price movements) are completely uncorrelated to others.
Good luck with that assumption, in the two examples I mentioned.
Maybe we should be looking at the area under the curve-if we could only figure out which curve to use.
It’s definitely an integral part of the problem at hand.
Mike
Reread the article. I did not try to mathematically describe new infections or delineate a function for their growth. I described the graphs of confirmed cases, and my point was while they initially could be described as exponential, most of them are moving towards linearity, or non-exponential, and now many of the linear graphs appear to be reaching an inflection point downward. You’re accusing me of mathematical illiteracy for something I did not attempt to do. I will plead microbiological illiteracy; I don’t know the function for new infections so I won’t challenge your equation. However, that equation is separate from confirmed cases graphs, although there is obviously a connection.
Your excuse is one must be a microbiologist to be able to define the function of new infections?
That’s pretty lame.
(I can exactly calculate the decay of radioactive isotopes, and I’m not a nuclear physicist!)
Could be? please tell us what other valid option is there.
Now what is this here you’re doing, “leave it to the experts” propaganda?
I’m the first to admit I’m mathematically challenged. Or in other words “Maff is haaahd fo me.” I’ll just have to take your word for it, Robert.
It was simply techo-talk for the standard S-curve of any new fad. It’s concave up at the start but then turns the other way to be concave down. The letter ‘S’ is concave at the bottom-left and top-right. Pull the top of the ‘S’ to the right and stretch it only horizontally like it’s on a rubber sheet: |_| -> /_/. You see the ‘linear’ straightaway in the middle of the ‘S‘. Constant rise over run there until the next turn, which goes the other way. The transition from curve to curve might be going straight only for an instant, meaning at only a single spot. Muh slope at that spot or segment is the constant ‘a’ in ‘y = ax + c’. Constant ‘c’ is the y-intercept. I’m going by memory and don’t claim perfection here.
Laughed out loud. Yeah . . . maff = difficultness
As they say, maff is hard.
This is an article on ZH that cites C-SPAN and Politico:
As Bodies Pile Up, States Ask Emergency FEMA Help To Handle The Dead | Zero Hedge
In a city of over 8,300,000 people, the bodies are piling up. Over 200 so far. And the morgues are overrun.
Scary stuff. Real scary. Somebody better do something quick. Real quick.
Another thing: Given the trillions being spent on relief, couldn’t they have just spent a fraction of that to quarantine and treat the sick people while allowing the rest of us to go about our daily business?
It’s almost like there’s an agenda afoot. Or something.
I just posted that somewhere else. Ridiculous, isn’t it?
“Many intelligence reports in war are contradictory; even more are false, and most are uncertain.”
-Carl von Clausewitz
This is hysterically funny. There are more dead bodies found on the subway regularly. Pile them on the A train if they’re in such a tizzy. Anybody buying any of this…should be first in line for the vaccine.
Indeed. It’s too insane not to be on purpose.
Wow, your genius is shining forth!
Have you made that suggestion to treat the sick people to the doctors in Northern Italy hospitals, or -less well known so far- in French Alsace or Madrid, Spain?
Maybe just give them a little more money, to do so?
Trillions, Mike. Trillions. Use your imagination. It’s easy if you try
Doug, something I’ve noticed about myself, most everyone else on here, and folks in my day-to-day activities: We are all coming undone. For real. I enjoy seeing you like this though.
I did chores, made over a hundred pounds of sausages (hot Italian, brats and maple sage) gave a neighbor and his kids a tour, hung out with my kids collecting sap, made homemade pizzas for dinner and sat down to read and write for the evening.
Some of us are enjoying the hell out these times.
sad I can only log out and refresh my “fetch” browser and only give you 2 thumbs up
I won’t go so far as to say I’m enjoying it. But I do feel avenged in a way, and relieved that we’re closer to the end than the beginning.
Things are coming undone. Or is it redone, with a chance for a new beginning?
Someone is going to profit very nicely from this exercise.
HSF
I’m writing a report detailing my company’s intellectual property and the various strategies we are using to protect it. The intellectual property comes from our majority shareholder and Chief Technology Officer, one of the brightest people on the planet. As you can imagine, it’s a pure joy writing about it. After I posted my two articles on SLL, I essentially quite posting there. I’m either going to be right or wrong on the coronavirus numbers, although I know I’m right that it’s being used as a cover for the imposition of totalitarianism. Regardless of the numbers, I’m sick of hearing about the coronavirus and like you, I am happy I have productive and fun things to do.
AOC,
I read your comment twice and I’m not sure what you mean.
Honestly, I’ve been trying to remember a time when been more relaxed and at peace.
Maybe that will change, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Indeed! Masks are off, people are waking up, pulling no punches!
Now I wouldn’t say I’m at peace. I worry for my children. But I don’t give a shit what I say or to whom anymore. The curtains are pulled back for a lot more people, although they’re about 12 years late in waking up.
You, I’ve noticed, are more sarcastic with a little slice of dry brutality. It’s a good thing IMHO.
AOC,
OK. I’m picking up what you’re laying down now. I will admit I’m sad for my pups as well. They were just starting to get things going and they were doing great. Fortunately, for them, they are great and there’s much more to life than what meets the eye.
Still, in spite of my surprisingly serene state-of-mind, there does reside some anger. I mean how many times can people be fooled, ya know? It’s unbelievable how “social distancing” and “sheltering in place” have taken virtue signaling to entirely new levels. And what is even more amazing is the sheer power of electronic media’s imprint upon the collective psyche. Six feet of separation or six degrees of Kevin Bacon? Because five is not enough and seven is overkill.
I know a family who lost a child last week and they were denied the comfort of friends and family at a funeral because no more than 10 people could assemble together in any one place in their community.
If this thing blew over too soon, heads would roll and that is, perhaps, why it won’t. If some more people die then we’ll know how serious it was. This way, when it does finally somewhat subside, people can pat themselves on the back for the honorable efforts they took to self-quarantine. They will, in fact, be proud of their success. They did it. They flattened the curve, banked some digital cash as payment, and all on the way toward a brighter future devoid of dirty money.
Doug, I feel for that poor family. But if truth be told, and God forbid it were my baby, I’d demand everyone show up. Fight the power, simple as that.
So as not to shoot the messenger for telling the ugly, hard, cold, nihilistic truth, I upvoted you, even though I hate what you said.
Yes, humans will soon be proud of being LESS human. And THEN the end begins. This current scenario may be the ultimate set-up for the final social “scapegoating”
Is it “less” human to enforce a rule of law? I hear quite often that people say we’re more civilized now and shouldn’t have the death penalty, or firing squad for instance. So we haven’t done it, and the psychopaths have taken over. Perhaps the West should relearn what civilization means.
Furthermore, with how stupid the average person has become (partially due to our abundant wealth allowing everyone to survive, and partially due to horrible education), there’s no other way to get someone to think critically than to shake them out of slumber.
I look at cities and see nothing but subhumans. We’re already LESS human in America. We have too many people who wouldn’t have survived Mother Nature’s vicious deliberation in a typical society, and we have forgotten God.
Is it LESS human to look at NYC and think, “Hrm, maybe they brought this upon themselves. Maybe their indiscriminate murder of the unborn, disdain for rural folks, ungrateful attitudes toward the rest of the country CAUSED their current predicament”?
Six feet; yes, why not five or seven? Most likely from people who have difficulty balancing their checkbook.
Because Guns N’ Roses said so. Axl used to love her.
Trillions of what?
Trillions of reasons to ignore the (just starting) overload of the hospitals/medical system – which cannot be fixed nor mediated on the quick, by showering them with money??
It enrages me on the one hand, and makes me laugh on the other. America voted for this. WTH did everyone think was gonna happen? It’s a little too late to cry over spilled milk.
[Scratch head]
Care to explain how I -or anybody else- could have voted against this?
Shrug.
That means you recommend the Atlas Shrugged “solution”?
Find here a previous comment of mine what I think about that one.
It’s working for me! I’m not hiding and letting it blow by. I refuse to participate and will not physically fight an entity with a monopoly on force. Washington would cease to exist without revenue. This will happen with or without a strike at this point but I am expediting it.
You think you can reform this government? LOL. Pie in the sky. Not one example exists in human history where an empire issued reforms sweeping enough to change a bear market into a bull market. Not one.
You had reforms here and there throughout Roman history that, even in a society with slower technological progress, was never able to extend itself beyond a decade here and there without the bear market continuing uninhibited.
One thing throughout history is constant: Man’s flawed nature. So when America inevitably collapses, you can rest assured knowing that whatever rises from the ashes, good or bad, will also collapse at some point in the future.
Machiavelli was right, sorry dude!
You meant to say that you’re not hiding yet. 😉
I don’t need to cite a psychopath to come to such conclusions:
Why mike, how extraordinarily obtuse of you to throw out truisms when it’s spoken by an alleged (to you) psychopath!
Does it also follow that Stalin was wrong in saying the below?
Does it follow that Hitler was wrong in saying the below?
Now, don’t avoid what I said, please. Give me a historical example of a great power that reformed itself and turned a bear market into a bull market (politically speaking). You know there isn’t one. Furthermore, your logic completely breaks down when I just need to cite one instance of a revolution that ushered in a Golden Era…especially one so close to home, if’n you follow.
Your naked idealism tells me much about you and to what generational cohort you belong. You all are INSISTENT upon destroying the entire world to save yourselves and your windmills. Very very sad.
Truly amazing what you can read into my comments!
1. Not wanting to cite someone [because there are other sources available] is the same as disbelieving or ignoring him?
2. I am afraid of [whatever] and only want to save myself??
3. And in the process I’m OK with, or even deliberately target, destroying the entire world???
Now some Cochran/Chewbacca defense?
I wrote on March 13th
“If you are (still) dreaming of some kind of revolution, you already lost. Because even if one occurs, the outcome will be worse than before it.”
Maybe I missed it again. Where’s your example of sweeping reform in a superpower?
1. You called him a psychopath. Are you his shrink? And what alternative source? A cartoon cel that I’ve posted on this very site for shits and grins?
2. Absolutely. Either that or you’re a complete buffoon. Take your pick, because the virus is less of a statistical threat to healthy individuals and children than stepping on a copperhead in my back yard. You just supported the murder of the American middle class, and your team won. Congratulations.
3. Not only is your quote nothing but pure speculation when there’s evidence to the contrary IN THIS VERY COUNTRY, but you’ve also previously intimated that revolutions throw out tradition and don’t work. That’s not the point though. The point is that the only winning move is not to play the game. Why should I? To fund your Social Security when my children will have nothing? To pay for your coronavirus ventilator when I’ll never need one?
Now, please answer my very first question in this post or we’re done here. It was the whole reason I responded to your bullshit and you still beat around the bush. You’re not getting off the hook with your sophomoric agitprop.
And that statement was wrong by me, or what??
First things first . . . c-span = faker news. 🙂
BUT. . . check this:
https://www.ibtimes.sg/china-hiding-covid-19-death-toll-21-million-cell-phones-disappeared-why-41580
I, for one, am still not sure that this – regardless of any agendae – is not much worse than the propaghandhae suggesteses.
Of course, the chi-comms COULD have initiated the killingest of killing sprees, too. Just sayin’
Nieb
Of those 21 million, 3 belonged to covid-19 victims.
You dullards have no sense of humor.
we also have flea spray so you better start hopping–
That’s funny, actually, so I upvote you; I personally was thinking in percentages, but, yeah 3 sounds about right.
Most morgues are small. Most anything can overrun them
What is wrong with those people running Gotham!
Those 200 bodies can be disposed of at local incinerator!
We are entering the Brave New World after all.
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/power-gridlock/
I’ve been hosting a lady and her daughter that had to leave a domestic violence situation for about a year and a half now. She makes a good farm hand. She works with autistic children in the schools. A tough job and the least pay. She can’t afford an apt currently. Anywho… this morning, while they were both sitting at the table, I said, “I need to go out into the apocalypse and navigate the burning city, avoid the roaming gangs, and hopefully, dodge the plague… … you need anything?” The smirk from those two just warmed the cockles. heh.
youknowwhoiam. (accidentally posted anonymous)
“Sunlight, the wonder drug, is the best cure for ignorance.”
No, not really. How about this. Garbage dies and makes room for human reproduction. Does anyone recall enough high school biology to know I’m right? Let God sort ’em out. “With the cross of Jesus, going on before___”
After enough social distancing, people will crave Big Brothers love.
http://www.henrymakow.com
The last paragraph is the important one.
Trenchant. And literary. Great combo.
Yeah . . . click, click . . . .
AND, curious: how many of the sick took a flu shot this year?
That’s an good question, Niebo.
I saw a study somewhere that showed people who took the flu shot are more susceptible. I wish I could remember where I saw it. Elderly people make up the highest percentage of people who take the flu shot. Then again, maybe it’s a coinkydink.
People have been suckling at the teat of the nanny state for a long time. It’s what got us here in the first place. Social Distancing is a euphemism for IPHONE.
Robert –
You have already addressed the “maff” issues I have with the article, so I want to address another aspect…:
i have spent the last two eves “scoping” my firearms, some of which have been stored in closets, on racks, etc., . . . NOT because I plan to shoot a virus.
So, FWIW, I hear you.
See also:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/12-experts-question-covid-19-panic
Don’t you love the cherry-picking in their arguments?
He takes 1 death per 20,000 in Hubei as a yardstick, and therefore deduces the Western reaction/panic to be overblown –
but completely ignores the inconvenient fact that Hubei needed a complete no-exceptions lock-down to limit deaths to that 1 in 20,000 ratio??
I mean how fucked up in the head must one be to sprout such bullshite.
Also from that article:
So according to Bhakdi the death rate is 0.3% of infected (out of who’s ass did he pull that number?), and people were already dying at similar ratios from “old” Coronaviruses, before CoVid-19.
OK, that’s his theory.
So why is it then that Northern Italy’s hospitals seem to be slightly overwhelmed.
mike, what, exactly are you scared of? Death?
Not much of anything anymore.
Closest would be ‘finding out about a massive flaw in my attempts to understand the world, and that I really should have realized that one decades earlier.’
But if you’d ask what makes me angry, I’d answer “large-scale, repeated stupidity.”
(But I would never even contemplate forcing anybody into good sense actions, as that’s the equivalent to ‘fucking for virginity.’)
You strenuously argued to kill off millions of middle class livelihoods for a virus whose propaganda was larger than its phallus. You all succeeded, BTW. Gen X and the Millennials have now lost nearly everything for the 4th time in 20 years. The irony is not lost on me that not only did you argue to shut it all down, but you also argue to keep the DC noose around our necks.
No one does this unless they’re scared of something or are totally narcissistic. Reason would have won the day.
The entire documentary is worthwhile, but I link to the last five minutes because it is so chilling:
Niebo.
Very good. However, the card at the end won’t be needed. It will be in the vaccines and hydro-gel combined with ubiquitous 5G.
You remind me of doctors who believed in the early 19th century, when the first railroads were built, that humans wouldn’t survive traveling at speeds over 30 mph.
The confirmed cases (outside of China which is so suspect as to be meaningless) are still increasing exponentially.
Speaking of math….the “Earn it Bill” which will remove encryption and allow govt to spy 100% on the internet now legally because they do it already now we just need to agree to allow them….
The new digital currency Bill…the first sentence of 2nd paragraph is very telling….the new digital currency will become a Liability to the bank whereas right now, today, your checking saving accounts are listed as “assets” of the banks not liabilities because they can confiscate those. Seems they will make it favorable, more protective to own digital currency to usher and roll this out to make it appealing to people in such crisis times. This will be their attempt at replacing a gold standard. This also means they must force this by allowing a few high profile banks go belly up, confiscate checking and savings accts so people hear about ir, freak out, wish for a digital currency.
“ Both Speaker Pelosi’s ‘Take Responsibility for Workers and Families Act’ and the ‘Financial Protections and Assistance for America’s Consumers, States, Businesses, and Vulnerable Populations Act (H.R. 6321),’ introduced by Chairwoman Maxine Waters of Financial Services Committee, introduced these concepts today as a way of delivering the economic stimulus payments to U.S. citizens.
The bill establishes a digital dollar, which it defines as ‘a balance expressed as a dollar value consisting of digital ledger entries that are recorded as liabilities in the accounts of any Federal Reserve Bank or … an electronic unit of value, redeemable by an eligible financial institution (as determined by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System).’ Additionally, a digital dollar wallet is identified as ‘a digital wallet or account, maintained by a Federal reserve bank on behalf of any person, that represents holdings in an electronic device or service that is used to store digital dollars that may be tied to a digital or physical identity.”
Ohh shit
Excellent insight, Robert. Use this notation for your formulae: f(x)=aex For example, f(2)=5e6.
f(23)= 6s4 s denotes subscript, e denotes exponent.
Robert you could do this as well.. I tried it. It’s a bit wonky but works!
https://yourbusiness.azcentral.com/make-exponents-computer-keyboard-15688.html
Hope that helps. A great article by the way!
Cheers
another rob
I have stated almost everything in the article but fools will never see the truth. Another good one Robert.
I see opportunity!
“on their way up the chimney the gases go through four separate treatments. Phosphorous used to go right out of circulation every thme they cremated some one. Now they recover over ninety-eight per cent of it….Fine to think we dan go on being socially useful even after we’re dead. Making plants grow.”
Moar balconies.. moar jobs and more recovery
More boiled rope
Basic math… yep, pretty basic. When this started I wrote 5 line program to guess the growth when our total cases in the US were 13,671. As the author states, this rate will not continue at this rate but, so far, it’s held to this.
x = 13671
for day in range(1, 15):
x = x + (x * .3)
print “day ” + str(day) + “: ” + str(int(x))
produces this:
day 1: 17772
day 2: 23103
day 3: 30035
day 4: 39045
day 5: 50759
day 6: 65987
day 7: 85783
day 8: 111518
day 9: 144974
day 10: 188466
day 11: 245006
day 12: 318508
day 13: 414060
day 14: 538278
So, here is that output with the actual numbers poked in by day so far.
day 1 guess: 17772 — actual numbers 19383
day 2 guess: 23103 — actual numbers 24207
day 3 guess: 30035 — actual numbers 33546
day 4 guess: 39045 — acttual numbers 43734
day 5 guess: 50759 — actual numbers 54808
day 6 guess: 65987 — actual numbers 68211
day 7 guess: 85783
day 8 guess: 111518
day 9 guess: 144974
day 10 guess: 188466
day 11 guess: 245006
day 12 guess: 318508
day 13 guess: 414060
day 14 guess: 538278
I guess doing it your way it would look like this:
Guess what and who is now in total control of the planet to bail out all that need a bail out. YUP you guessed right again.
FED gets $454 BILLION for their bailout slush fund. Why $454 vs $450 , or $500???
THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM HAS INDEED BEEN NATIONALIZED AT LONG LAST. LOOKS LIKE.
Terrified of Covid-19?
http://www.antiempire.com/terrified-of-covid-19-dont-worry-vegatables-cant-get-resperatory-ilnesses/
The site is currently offline.
See Bee.
They have outgrown their server and have been having difficulty handling traffic but are being squeezed by someone who is shutting out resistance sites by denying servers. According to them.
Testing, that’s the ticket, except when you have to drive anywhere from 75 to 100 miles and there’s no guarantee you get the test. Yesterday my wife’s temperature went up to 101.5 from morning to noon. We called our primary care doc and she gave us a toll free number to call. My wife answered a lot of questions and they told her where she could go to see if she qualified for the test. You see we live in a small town in Arkansas, a Walmart, a couple grocery stores, a hardware store. Last Friday after we completed training to work from home, how to use the software etc, etc… Anyhow I left to swing by the spirit shop to get a bit of beer, brandy, and bitters. There in the parking lots of all three, packed, were cars from Tennessee, Mississippi, and from a checker told me the day after, bunches from Little Rock. The shelves were stripped, it was like a swarm of locusts had flown through, Yeah they were restocking of course, they are Walmart, but I have never seen all the milk, cow, soy, almond, coconut, and whatever else they had. Same the local grocery stores. The local Hardware store which sold ammunition was stripped of it. Now we are expected to drive to get her “maybe” tested. We’re hanging in, her temps down today. I went through town to go to a greenhouse to check on more onion sets because I actually could break the ground so it could dry a bit before it rains again and get the plants I started in my little PVC greenhouse that have gotten so big in the ground. Here’s the thing, Walmart was packed as well as the grocery store. Not surprising considering we are the only game in town for the other rural towns in our county that don’t even have a Family Dollar but in a way concerning. They should space things out I think and maybe come back in an hour or so. Just MHO.
God bless, keep safe, and keep a firearm close by hand.
“Yesterday my wife’s temperature went up to 101.5 from morning to noon.”
Fever is the cure.
I know SeeBee, I tutor the Physiology and Anatomy students as well as the Microbiology ones. I run two labs, but my wife has this worry wart and her first great grandchild, go figure.
Know your rights: https://www.ncsl.org/research/health/state-quarantine-and-isolation-statutes.aspx
Posting this as I think it is a must see
https://youtu.be/1BiM1YYIPCo