Study: Coronavirus Fatality Rate Lower than Expected, Close to Flu’s 0.1%

Via Breitbart

A medical professional in PPE, including gloves, an apron and a face mask as a precautionary measure against Covid-19, pushes a patient, also wearing a facemask, as he lays on a bed, inside St Thomas' Hospital in north London, on April 1, 2020, as life in Britain continues during the …

The fatal and highly contagious novel coronavirus has spread faster but is less deadly than official data imply, the Economist magazine reported over the weekend, citing a new study.

On Saturday, the Economist reported that the fact that the illness caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) has spread across the United States could be “good news.”

“If millions of people were infected weeks ago without dying, the virus must be less deadly than official data suggest,” the magazine determined, using graphs to suggest the faster the disease spreads and hits its peak, the fewer people will die.

The Economist article cited a new study by Justin Silverman and Alex Washburne that used data on influenza-like illness (ili) to show that the coronavirus (SARS-COV-2) is now widespread in America.

Silverman and Washburne found that the coronavirus mortality rate could be as low as 0.1 percent, “similar to that of flu.”

The Economist further explained:

COVID-19 takes 20-25 days to kill victims. The [Silverman and Washburne] paper reckons that 7m Americans were infected from March 8th to 14th, and official data show 7,000 deaths three weeks later. The resulting fatality rate is 0.1%, similar to that of flu. That is amazingly low, just a tenth of some other estimates. Perhaps it is just wrong, possibly because the death toll has been under-reported. Perhaps, though, New York’s hospitals are overflowing because the virus is so contagious that it has crammed the equivalent of a year’s worth of flu cases into one week.

The death rate could be higher given that people with asymptomatic or mild coronavirus likely failed to report non-flu influenza-like illnesses to their doctors, the magazine acknowledged.

Silverman and Washburne reportedly gleaned their data from weekly reports by 2,600 American doctors on the number of their patients who have ili, the Economist explained, adding:

The authors assume that the share of these providers’ patients with ili who do have the flu matches the rate of flu tests that are positive in the same state and week. This lets them estimate how many people have ili seriously enough to call a doctor, but do not have the flu—and how many more people have had non-flu ili in 2020 than in prior years.

Of course, the flu is often the cause of ili, but there many other ailments that produce influenza-like illness, including common colds, step throat, and now coronavirus.

The new study’s coronavirus death rate estimate is much lower than what Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and member of the White House Coronavirus Taskforce, predicted in early March.

“If you look at the cases that have come to the attention of the medical authorities in China, and you just do the math, the math is about two percent,” Fauci said.

A study from Britain published at the end of last month in the medical journal Lancet Infectious Diseases also found that fewer people are dying from the novel coronavirus than previously estimated.

That study estimated the coronavirus death rate could be as low as 0.66 percent and as high as 1.38 percent. Fauci’s estimate is higher than both figures.

The coronavirus has infected over 560,000 people and killed nearly 23,000 across all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Guam, Puerto Rico, the Northern Mariana Islands, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, the Johns Hopkins University tracker showed as of Monday afternoon.

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28 Comments
gman
gman
April 14, 2020 1:37 pm

Two Nasty Traits Of This Coronavirus, Typically Not Seen Together

SeeBee
SeeBee
  gman
April 14, 2020 8:14 pm

Mish lost all credibility. Bookmark deleted. Along with many others. More free time to quarantine the day away.

Jdog
Jdog
April 14, 2020 1:43 pm

These idiotic “its just the flu” articles are getting really old. Go get it, and when you are lying in a hospital bed drowning in your own fluids, keep telling yourself “its just the flu”

Mary Christine
Mary Christine
  Jdog
April 14, 2020 3:30 pm

Everyone dies of something. If you are immune compromised, indeed you should stay in your home, protect yourself if you go out, just as you would if you were dealing with any flu epidemic every flu season.

overthecliff
overthecliff
  Jdog
April 14, 2020 4:19 pm

You are just plain wrong. Most have mild symptoms like “the flu” This virus has been going around the USA since at least December and doctors thought it was just “the flu”.

Iska Waran
Iska Waran
  overthecliff
April 14, 2020 11:29 pm

Nope. Read this whole thread.

Anonymous
Anonymous
  Jdog
April 14, 2020 6:47 pm

Had it. It wasn’t shit.

Anonymous
Anonymous
  Jdog
April 14, 2020 7:26 pm

Says the village idiot.

Long Time Lurker
Long Time Lurker
  Jdog
April 14, 2020 8:28 pm

Baah 4 friends had it official, recovered. I was sick but not tested. sheep goes baaah

ILuvCO2
ILuvCO2
  Jdog
April 14, 2020 9:57 pm
The body is not the Soul
The body is not the Soul
April 14, 2020 1:44 pm

https://biopharmguy.com/links/company-by-location-vaccines.php

Check out all the vaccines you can buy and look at what they are for (mind-blowing)

MrLiberty
MrLiberty
  The body is not the Soul
April 14, 2020 2:25 pm

Nobody should wonder why the entire world is being held hostage. And how many of these folks have Gates as an investor?

AC
AC
April 14, 2020 2:14 pm

So their premise is that there are a massive number of imaginary cases that just magically don’t show up in any of the testing, anywhere in the world?

Cute.

Anonymous
Anonymous
  AC
April 14, 2020 6:02 pm

it’s just as cute as the premise that CV has an R0 of 6.

where are they getting that number from if they aren’t widespread testing.

oh that’s right, they’re “assuming”

Anonymous
Anonymous
  Anonymous
April 14, 2020 7:09 pm

They’re looking at South Korea and Germany, where there is widespread testing.

Iska Waran
Iska Waran
  AC
April 15, 2020 12:00 am

It’s possible that there are a massive number of undiagnosed cases, but that’s something you either count and/or you deduce from evidence, not something that you just assert (“7m Americans infected from March 8 to 14th”) in order to work backward and conclude “it’s just the flu”.

Between March 22 and April 4, 215 pregnant women about to give birth in NYC were tested for coronavirus. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2009316 15% had antibodies. 15% of 8 million NYC residents is 1.2 million infectees in the hottest spot in the US by April 4. Assuming the death-to-infectees ratio is more or less similar across the nation, it stands to reason that the area with half of the deaths would have roughly half of the infectees three weeks earlier. If NYC had 1.2 mil infectees by April 4, it’s highly implausible that there had been 7 mil infectees nation-wide by March 14th.

This “study” (assertion) makes no sense and seems intent on “proving” a low mortality rate.

On the Diamond Princess, about 740 were infected. As of about ten days ago, 12 had died and there were still 20 or so in ICU. Assuming some of them don’t make it, the mortality rate from the Princess would be a good 2%. And they weren’t all old, since some of the young crew also got infected.

MrLiberty
MrLiberty
April 14, 2020 2:22 pm

They seem to be pushing back super hard on an antibody test that will actually show just how many were infected with little to no impact. Big shock. This PLANNEDEMIC can never be fully exposed for what it truly is.

Steve
Steve
April 14, 2020 3:13 pm

I stumbled onto this looking at the comments section on a Zero Hedge article. It paints
9-11 and Covid-19 as 2 Zionist connected events. Ya just can’t make this shit up….

https://biblicisminstitute.wordpress.com/2020/03/07/the-trump-virus/

gman
gman
  Steve
April 14, 2020 3:23 pm

“Covid-19 … Zionist connected events”

that’s what I suspect.

Mary Christine
Mary Christine
April 14, 2020 3:27 pm

Don’t listen to not the President anymore Trump. Listen to the Keebler Elf and Dr Blinky.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/dr-fauci-says-reopening-economy-may-bit-overly-optimistic-contradicting-trump-again

deally, Dr. Fauci said, the reopening of the economy can be eased with simple tests showing whether an individual possesses antibodies for the virus. While those who were infected, in theory, should have the highest levels of antibodies, individuals who were merely exposed to the virus, and whose bodies fought it off before infection could occur, should also test ‘antibody positive’, meaning they have a level of immunity to the virus.

However, there have been signs that these tests – which Dr. Fauci is focused on fine-tuning – aren’t nearly accurate enough for the US to depend on them.

Much of Fauci’s time outside of the White House briefing room is focused on analyzing progress on blood tests that aim to tell who was exposed to the coronavirus — whether they knew they were sick or not — by spotting antibodies their immune system formed to fight back. Those tests will be crucial in determining when and how people can go back to work.

The problem: Most of the tests have not yet been proven to work well, Fauci cautioned. He noted that some countries bought millions of antibody tests only to learn they didn’t work.

Fauci, infectious disease chief at the National Institutes of Health, said his staff is working with the Food and Drug Administration to validate those tests. That means proving what level of antibodies it takes to really be immune; if particular types of antibodies are key rather than an overall level; and how long that protection lasts.

“We’re going to have to find out the answer to all of those questions,” Fauci stressed. “I know people are anxious to say, ‘Well, we’ll give you a passport that says you’re antibody-positive, you can go to work and you’re protected.’ The worst possibility that would happen is if we’re actually wrong about that” and those people get infected.

Is it just me or is he contradicting himself every time he turns around?

My daughter texted me this just this morning:

Everyone I talked to is short on hours at the hospitals…including…other hospitals. My agency nurse friends say hours are scarce everywhere

Other hospitals includes the Big City Hospital that is supposed to be the “Plague Hospital” for that network, HCA.
They even sent 40 of their nurses to Louisiana, including her supervisor. One of her best friends from nursing school works at the Plague Hospital and she has been getting canceled off of her schedule.

card802
card802
April 14, 2020 4:12 pm

Bullfuckingshit!!!!

If I don’t hear it from CNN, Fauci, Cuomo, or my crazy as fuck friend, this is as Jdog is claiming.

You step outside, you disobey a direct government order, you get closer than six feet to another human being (Animals too now I guess) you plant a seed in your garden or go fishing, you are going to die the most horribleist death ever, maybe a million times more bad than any deathy thing you could ever get a death from.

Please, for the love of (not God) the government and those .01%ers that hate us so, listen to Jdog and bow down to the benevolent cocksuckers that rule over us. Jdog, you da man!

overthecliff
overthecliff
April 14, 2020 4:13 pm

It’s the flu !!!!! The number of deaths attributed to the flu i 2018-19 in USA was approximately 80,000. TPTB were really creative using this “emergency” You have to give them an A for creativity.

overthecliff
overthecliff
April 14, 2020 4:15 pm

The good thing is that the virus is racist . It selectively kills niggers and spics and chinks.

el cabron (not EC)
el cabron (not EC)
  overthecliff
April 14, 2020 9:04 pm

Especially the urban immunodeficient, over the hill, obese diabetic ones with COPD. Other than that it doesn’t discriminate.

card802
card802
April 14, 2020 4:20 pm

I found this interesting, Robert F Kennedy Jr taking on the Gates himself.

“Vaccines, for Bill Gates, are a strategic philanthropy that feed his many vaccine-related businesses (including Microsoft’s ambition to control a global vac ID enterprise) and give him dictatorial control over global health policy—the spear tip of corporate neo-imperialism.

Gates’ obsession with vaccines seems fueled by a messianic conviction that he is ordained to save the world with technology and a god-like willingness to experiment with the lives of lesser humans.

Promising to eradicate Polio with $1.2 billion, Gates took control of India‘s National Advisory Board (NAB) and mandated 50 polio vaccines (up from 5) to every child before age 5. Indian doctors blame the Gates campaign for a devastating vaccine-strain polio epidemic that paralyzed 496,000 children between 2000 and 2017.

In 2017, the Indian Government dialed back Gates’ vaccine regimen and evicted Gates and his cronies from the NAB. Polio paralysis rates dropped precipitously.

In 2017, the World Health Organization reluctantly admitted that the global polio explosion is predominantly vaccine strain, meaning it is coming from Gates’ Vaccine Program.

The most frightening epidemics in Congo, the Philippines, and Afghanistan are all linked to Gates’ vaccines. By 2018, ¾ of global polio cases were from Gates’ vaccines.

In 2014, the Gates Foundation funded tests of experimental HPV vaccines, developed by GSK and Merck, on 23,000 young girls in remote Indian provinces. Approximately 1,200 suffered severe side effects, including autoimmune and fertility disorders. Seven died.

Indian government investigations charged that Gates funded researchers committed pervasive ethical violations: pressuring vulnerable village girls into the trial, bullying parents, forging consent forms, and refusing medical care to the injured girls. The case is now in the country’s Supreme Court.

In 2010, the Gates Foundation funded a trial of a GSK’s experimental malaria vaccine, killing 151 African infants and causing serious adverse effects including paralysis, seizure, and febrile convulsions to 1,048 of the 5,049 children.

During Gates 2002 MenAfriVac Campaign in Sub-Saharan Africa, Gates operatives forcibly vaccinated thousands of African children against meningitis. Between 50-500 children developed paralysis. South African newspapers complained, “We are guinea pigs for drug makers.”

Nelson Mandela’s formar Senior Economist, Professor Patrick Bond, describes Gates’ philantropic practises as “ruthless” and immoral”.

In 2010, Gates committed $10 billion to the WHO promising to reduce population, in part, through new vaccines. A month later Gates told a Ted Talk that new vaccines “could reduce population”.

In 2014, Kenya’s Catholic Doctors Association accused the WHO of chemically sterilizing millions of unwilling Kenyan women with a phony “tetanus” vaccine campaign.
Independent labs found the sterility formula in every vaccine tested.

After denying the charges, WHO finally admitted it had been developing the sterility vaccines for over a decade.
Similar accusations came from Tanzania, Nicaragua, Mexico and the Philippines.

A 2017 study (Morgensen et.Al.2017) showed that WHO’s popular DTP is killing more African than the disease it pretends to prevent. Vaccinated girls suffered 10x the death rate of unvaccinated children.

Gates and the WHO refused to recall the lethal vaccine which WHO forces upon millions of African children annually. Global public health advocates around the world accuse Gates of – hijacking WHO’s agenda away from the projects that are proven to curb infectious diseases; clean water, hygiene, nutrition and economic development.

They say he has diverted agency resources to serve his personal fetish – that good health only comes in a syringe.
In addition to using his philantropy to control WHO, UNICEF, GAVI and PATH, Gates funds private pharmaceutical companies that manifacture vaccines, and a massive network of pharmaceutical – industry front groups that broadcast deceptive propaganda, develop fraudulent studies, conduct surveillance and psychological operations against vaccine hesitancy and use Gates’ power and money to silence dissent and coerce compliance.

In this recent nonstop Pharmedia appearances, Gates appears gleeful that the Covid-19 crisis will give him the opportunity to force his third-world vaccine programs on American children.”

– Robert F. Kennedy Jr

ursel doran
ursel doran
April 14, 2020 5:17 pm

Facebook killed this post almost immediately. Guess it does not fir their narrative, and hit a nerve quickly.

#fireFauci? Draw and quarter his body, his reputation and then Fire him, but blow him off the stage forever so he can go enjoy the $100 Mill. that Gates bought him with, and leave the country alone to heal from his LIES. https://tomluongo.me/…/fire-fauci-rallying-cry-generation/