Oh my. No national quarantine and businesses remained open. People used common sense to reduce the spread. The WHO and CDC have been rooting for a disaster in Sweden. This factual data, along with the proof from scientific studies underway now on herd immunity, will prove this national lockdown was the dumbest fucking idea in world history.
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Yes, it did!
My original surmise several weeks back was that this coronavirus was something new and different and reason for concern. The main concern being that it would only take 1.5% of US pop to be symptomatic and just 20% of that to require hospitalization and the hospital systems here would be crushed.
Well, just a week ago, the model curve that I was using basically ran into a brick wall. I mean, that is unsurprising to me as sooner or later it is going to happen….just not until one reaches 10-20% infection rates at the lowest, IME.
Been more than a bit busy with the practical exigencies of trying to run businesses during this time, and then getting the garden in. I really could only ponder the situation as I drifted off at night. Tell the subconscious that I have insufficient data to analyze, and when I wake up I want some anchor points for review…so, as of this morning:
a) Yep, Sweden didn’t do anything different and they have the same profile as “lockdown nations”.
b) The healthcare system is getting crushed anyway, near as I can tell from widespread reporting of hospital staff and doctor’s clinic staffs being furloughed. So, we had a lot more capacity in the system considering the real scale of the threat. And the lockdown caused it, NOT the virus.
c) Went looking for annual mortality expectations… because that is where the rubber meets the road in determining how scary this bug is.
Well, the CDC used to have nice clear tables and charts on such issues but, for the life of me, I cannot find much there. I did find this from Europe which shows that “excess deaths” during Wuhan virus time are not much different than spikes of the usual flu seasons. In fact, the flu season of 2016 and 2017 is quite comparable to current events. link:
https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html
While I have more to say, I don’t have the time to say it just now. But I will leave you with this….
“Case Mortality Rates” [CMR] – I think I pointed out in my first comment on the topic that one cannot know the number until the epi/pandemic is done as it is only at completion that you have a reliable denominator for calculation. Let me add to that thought – It is unlikely that we will ever get a true CMR because testing is not randomized and widely available in the population.
It is quite possible that the model curve I was using is correct and that we have 7-10 MM folks who have been infected at this point in time. That would make the CMR no more an issue than the flu.
We have enough data to call BS on the lockdown approach. This bug just does not warrant it.
If you are in a high-risk category, by all means self-isolate or wear a decent mask when out. And, yeah, keep hand sanitizer around and keep your hands off you face.
Other than that? Just carry on… and tell the authorities you are going to do what you can to work because hundreds of thousands will die from the lockdown otherwise. That is just a start.
Da P
A nice graphic of USA (Soft Lockdown) with Spain (Hard Lockdown) and Sweden (No Lockdown)
https://corona.help/compare/logarithmic/spain/sweden/united-states/
Da P
It doesn’t matter what proof you can show of what other countries did or the faulty CDC tests and how the media spun that to make people believe you can be positive and not show symptoms, but still spread the virus.
This shit is turning into a religion like man caused climate change and I’m concerned this is going to lead to a very sharp division of believers and non believers.
My cousin runs a multi million dollar corporation in Massachusetts, he’s gone crazy. I showed him that damn near every person that has died in his state was 70-80-90+ years old, and every single one had underlying health conditions, he argued.
So then I showed him a closed study they did in a Men’s shelter in his town, 300+ residents were tested, 170 or so tested positive, not one positive showed any symptoms or became sick, the rest? No issues.
I asked why the others did not fall down dead?
He ignored me and went on and on about the bodies stacking up.
Saturday I was able to watch my two grandsons all afternoon, and my daughter in law came to pick them up and gave us hugs before she left.
Monday my wife and I walked to their house, she got up and went to the other side of the room, said she wished we would have self quarantined, was not comfortable with us in her house and asked us to leave.
She said she was sorry and we can see each other in the spring. The Spring, I asked. Yes, this is going to be with us until then.
My son said she had a very rough day. She does suffer from axiety and depression……now idiocracy as well.
You have my sympathies. The past few weeks have been very revealing.
Sounds like my wife. Just today, the doctor advised her to go on antidepressants.
Of course he did.
DO NOT LET HER!!!
I speak from experience.
DO NOT LET HER!!!
Hopefully the they won’t be too depressed to vote in November. Rock that 19th !
Passing thru the kitchen , I overheard my my wife talking on speaker phone with her schizoid cat lady sister, who is too terrified to leave the house or even open her mail without first spraying it with disinfectant . She was telling my wife how very special and uplifting it was for her friends on Facebook to be taking pictures out their windows of spring flowers scenes and then sharing them on Facebook .
I spoke up and said why don’t you go outside . It’s even nicer out there.
You coulda’ heard a pin drop and suddenly my wife switched to private conservation mode.
I’m guessing the unsaid message is don’t disturb the loons when their having that rare moment of bliss, no matter how artificial .
“I spoke up and said why don’t you go outside . It’s even nicer out there.” Well done, Flash.
This is a “Plandemic ” and it has nothing to do with disease.
It is, has, and always will about power and control, at all levels, and Times.
Love your country, and fear your government….
I’ve been convinced since day 1 that the whole lockdown hysteria was to set up something to take the blame for the imploding economy.
The way it’s worked out for Trump, he seems to be safe either way you want to look at it. On the one hand, he’s the strong alpha male that took charge and saved America!! On the other hand, he wanted to take a more balanced, nuanced approach like Sweden, but the chickenshit, gutless Democrats, along with Hillary-supporter Fauci, forced him to take sterner measures than he personally believed necessary.
I’m thinking that’s pretty much why the Dems are holding out a throwaway like Biden. Besides, let Trump preside over the Greater Depression. Elizabeth Warren or Michelle Obama can run in 2024 and save us all.
If the Swedish numbers can be trusted it’s a revealing statistic.
What pisses me off is the US and many other Western nations are using predictive scientific models with little basis in reality. Rigged Chinese propaganda and WHO/CDC data is as reliable as the Steele dossier, but we know who paid for it.
To restate the obvious-
#1 Viruses are part of the human condition.
#2 Death is part of the human condition.
#3 The old and the sick are more likely to die from a viral infection than the healthy.
#4 You cannot alter the fundamental nature of the human condition.
#5 Nature trumps policy.
#6 See numbers 1-5
Got to love the farmer.
Peace to you HSF
You too.
I’m going to keep on rocking my smile sans mask, see how far that gets me in a world turned upside down.
#7 There ARE actually things you can do/take/eat to improve the health and strength of your immune system, even if the MSM, bigPharma-paid MDs, and others keep telling you that there are not. Those that deny these truths, hide these truths, ban these truths, are as guilty of murder as if they pulled the trigger.
Already living that life and have been encouraging others to do the same for a very long time.
Ounce of prevention and all that jazz.
But, … but, … if we can save just one life ….
This chart shows Sweden compared to its neighbors
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million?tab=chart&year=2020-04-16&country=DNK+FIN+NOR+SWE