Guest Post by Alex Berenson
With coronavirus infections rising again across the nation, the question of just how lethal the virus is has become more crucial than ever.
Early in the epidemic, public-health experts feared the virus might kill up to 2 percent of those infected, potentially causing millions of deaths in the United States and tens of millions worldwide. Those terrifying estimates prompted the lockdowns that have done incalculable harm to the economy, shattered small businesses and left children traumatized and untold numbers suffering from brutal isolation.
But we now know much more about the virus. And we know its lethality is lower than we originally feared — and highly concentrated in the very elderly and people with serious health problems.
In fact, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated in May that the coronavirus kills about 0.26 percent of the people it infects, about 1 in 400 people. New estimates from Sweden suggest that only 1 in 10,000 people under 50 will die from the virus, compared to 1 in 14 of people over 80 and 1 in 6 of those over 90.
Estimates for the coronavirus’ lethality have fallen so sharply because calculating the so-called infection fatality rate requires scientists and physicians to know both the total number of deaths and the total number of people infected.
Tracking deaths is relatively easy. But tracking infections can be tough. Many people who are infected with respiratory viruses like influenza or the novel coronavirus have only mild symptoms or none. They may never be tested or even know they are infected.
Thus, in the early stages of an epidemic, scientists must guess at the number of mild and hidden infections.
Probably the best way to discover the real number is through antibody tests, which measure how many people have already been infected and recovered — even if they never had symptoms.
Unlike some other countries, the United States still hasn’t completed a national random antibody study — yet another way in which our public-health establishment has failed to get the data we need to make good decisions about lockdowns. But some counties, states and countries have.
Those studies consistently show that far more people have been infected with and recovered from the coronavirus than suggested by data from tests that only measure current infections. Tests of municipal sewage systems — measuring the virus’ genetic signature in wastewater — have had similar findings.
Nearly all the studies find between 10 and 100 times the number of total infections as reported infections, with the average somewhere around 20 to 25 times.
In other words, while the CDC reports 2.34 million Americans have been infected with the coronavirus, the actual number of infected and recovered people may be closer to 50 million. (CDC Director Robert Redfield told journalists Thursday that the number of cases may be 10 times higher than the earlier 2.34 million.)
Thus, the death rate, which would be 5.2 percent based on that 2.34 million figure, is actually more like one-20th as high — or 0.26 percent.
To be sure, these estimates still have some uncertainty. The actual figure could be as low as 0.1 percent or as high as 0.4 to 0.5 percent, though treatment advances should mean it will trend lower over time. Even at 0.26 percent, the rate is still significantly higher than influenza most years, more comparable to a bad flu strain like the 1968 Hong Kong flu.
But it is far lower than we initially thought — a fact that should be cause for celebration.
Instead, some media outlets insist on using the out-of-date estimates that are much higher. For example, an ESPN article this week said public discussions about reopening the National Football League were “ignoring a mortality rate that has been estimated at 1.4 percent.” That figure is more than five times the CDC’s best estimate. Even more jarring, it is more than 100 times the actual risk to people in their 20s and 30s — the age range for nearly all NFL players.
Using those overstated estimates is a recipe for panic, bad public policy — and continued lockdowns that may delay to return to normality.
Let’s hope that isn’t the reason people in the media are using them.
Alex Berenson, a former New York Times reporter, is the author of “Unreported Truths About COVID-19 and Lockdowns: Part 1, Introduction and Death Counts and Estimates,” available on Amazon. This essay is adapted from that booklet. Twitter: @AlexBerenson
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Figures lie when liars figure. The CDC is a PRIVATE, CORRUPT grifting CORPORATION same as the NIH – both controlled primarily by Bill Gates.
I still remember being told that Arabs living in caves deep in the Hindu Kush organized 9/11.
I still remember being told Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction.
I still remember as a kid in the 1970s being told that the Swine Flu would kill hundreds of thousand and then the vaccine goes and kills more people than the actual virus.
I still remember living in Orange County CA where the first 10 AIDS cases were recognized and no one knew what the hell it was and the OC health department absolutely freaking out that this was some kind of modern plague developing but no quarantine was imposed because the victims were all gay and that would impose on their rights (they even called it “The Gay Plague” before it was called AIDS). And, I also still remember said same OC health department putting me in quarantine in 1977 with strict financial penalties for breach for having the measles.
I still remember watching six moon landings on TV and not once noticing there was no blast craters in the lunar soil directly underneath all six LEMs and not once noticing just how squeaky clean those six LEMs were despite what should have been huge clouds of lunar dust kicked up upon all six landings.
I still remember being told that a right wing militia in Nicaragua was the moral equivalent of our founding fathers who, in reality, had nothing to do with the Colombian cocaine trade.
I still remember just before the Millennium began incessantly being told just how great Globalism and Financialization would be. I also remember being told the Millennium started one-year before it actually kicked off.
I still remember being told that China joining the WTO was a great opportunity for Western Civilization.
I still remember being told Y2k was going to be the the end of the world as we know it and planes would fall out of the sky.
Add your favorite memories below…
It’s obvious that the “coronavirus” epidemic is a sham of the highest proportion. It is totally political in nature, with “blue state” governors perpetuating business-damaging “lockdowns” in their respective states.
Both professional and political arrogance is responsible for the present state of the world economy and world population as well.
A common annual “flu virus” was promoted as a “pandemic” by the “smartest” and “best and brightest” people in positions of power, both in the USA and in the rest of the world. It’s actually a “plandemic” foisted on the American public to bring down the Trump administration. It will fail…
These “best and brightest” convinced political “leaders” to impose mandatory business closures, “lockdowns” and “quarantines” on healthy populations, which is contrary to every common sense and scientific principle.
These “business closures” were not imposed “across the board”, but were picked by political hacks as “winners and losers”. Liquor stores, marijuana dispensaries, lottery retailers, and certain “big box” home improvement and sporting goods stores were permitted to remain in operation, while churches and just about all small businesses were forced to close.
In some states, the political arrogance was so great, plant nurseries, seed distributors, and other businesses were deemed “non-essential” and forced to close. Even “big box” stores were prohibited from selling lawn and garden supplies. Many restaurants were also put out of business by these clearly unconstitutional edicts.
Imposing “quarantines” and “lockdowns” on healthy people does nothing to insure public health, and in fact delays necessary herd immunity.
Public health is further damaged by business closures, especially small businesses whose owners rely on continuing business as a means of making a living, both for themselves and their employees.
A major problem is that these “best and brightest” and political “leaders” are so arrogant that they refuse to admit that “they screwed up, big time”. Instead, they “double down” and inflict further pain on the public by refusing to insist that “they were wrong”. None of them will pay personally for their arrogance, stupidity, and just outright dishonesty and criminality.
All one has to do is look at the “coronavirus hospitals” that were created to handle the “overflow” of coronavirus patients which never materialized. These “hospitals” were a waste of taxpayer dollars and did absolutely nothing to promote public health.
At the same time, local hospitals were required to cease admissions, even for those of an emergency nature. Although not specifically stated, people with real health problems were covertly “encouraged” to avoid hospitals at all costs because of the phony “coronavirus” claims.
Health professionals are also responsible for the current state of affairs, also refusing to admit that “they screwed up, big time” as well, and continue to insist that this annual flue is a “pandemic”.
Then we have the “heavy hitters” with money, such as Bill Gates and Stephen Fauci who claim that they have “solutions” to our (artificially contrived) health problems. Gates is so arrogant the he feels that he can get away with genocide by using mandatory vaccinations to “cull” the world population.
Gates “vaccination” programs in third-world countries failed to adhere to good medical practices, and the Nuremberg principle that “informed consent” must reign supreme in the administration of all medical procedures.
Gates’ “vaccination” programs introduced polio into children in India for which he and his program were banned from the country. Gates’ African “vaccination” programs surreptitiously introduced sterilization and birth-control compounds as part of their vaccination program without gaining “informed consent” from the recipients.
According to these moneyed types and even “health care” officials, we are to be branded, tagged, and treated like cattle with no means to make informed choices about our health or health care decisions.
Wearing masks and “social distancing” are no different than the “security theater” that we experience at airports with the TSA.
It’s “medical tyranny” at its best and scientific dishonesty at its worst.
There are no valid reasons for “mask-wearing” or “social distancing” for healthy people. In fact, in the coming months, look for an increase in respiratory illnesses affecting mask-wearers, especially those who are forced to wear masks for extended periods of time. In hospital settings, masks are supposed to be worn for only 10 minutes at a time before they are replaced.
“Lockdowns”, “business closures”, and “quarantining” of healthy people is being used for “control” and nothing more. The “powers that be” are desirous to see “how far they can go” to get the world population to accede to their demands.
Fortunately, there are a lot more of us than there are of . We (still) have the power of the internet to bypass the “filters” that they put in place to keep us from seeing their “real” motives.
???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? PERFECT!!!
FUCK THEM ALL!!!
Not to be a “punctuation Nazi” but over-doing the quotation mark detracts from readability and is, frankly aggravating as hell. Please “STOP!”
My old boss, the Italian Stallion, went to school in California. He would use quotation marks to highlight a word in a sentence. He also mixed in capital letters in words willy-nilly. Analcyst has no other way to denote air-quotes. Here’s a suggestion: an old columnist used to Capitalize the word he meant to highlight without resorting to quotation marks.
Alex is one for the few who I listen to and trust. Sharyl Atkisson and Kim Strassel are two more. The rest suck.
“Let’s hope that isn’t the reason people in the media are using them.”
He’s kidding, right? This was a tongue-in-cheek comment, right?
He forgot the “/sarc off” part.
Bullshit. Bullshit. Bullshit.
According to the CDC itself:
High blood pressure was a primary or contributing cause of death in 2017 for more than 472,000 people in the United States. That’s nearly 1,300 deaths each day.
If we start testing everyone for HP, will we see a rise in cases of ppl with HP? FUCK YES! Does this mean that more ppl are going to die from HP? FUCK NO! Wake The Fuck Up!
Same holds for DUI with more checkpoints!
How about IQ testing. Will more stupid ppl die if they find out they are below average?