Submitted by Hardscrabble Farmer
I’d be very interested in the demographic breakdown of that cohort beyond the “all ages and incomes” line.
Americans leave large cities for suburban areas and rural towns
A combination of the coronavirus pandemic, economic uncertainty, and social unrest is prompting waves of Americans to move from large cities and permanently relocate to more sparsely populated areas. The trend has been accelerated by technology and shifting attitudes that make it easier than ever to work remotely. Residents of all ages and incomes are moving in record numbers to suburban areas and small towns.
A perfect storm of factors makes the decision to leave major cities like New York very obvious. The dense nature of urban living and the lack of proper local government planning led to the coronavirus spreading five times faster in New York than the rest of the country. The city that never sleeps now resembles a ghost town in many areas after thousands of its wealthy and middle-class residents fled early in the pandemic.
Many are moving to small towns north of the five boroughs. Four upstate counties have seen an incredible surge in real estate demand, while the rest of the New York market is cratering. In Ulster County, the number of homes now under contract nearly doubles the 2016 figures. It saw steady sales in March and April while the overall New York market fell by nearly 30 percent. Some people are staying at their vacation homes, but the data suggest there are many permanent moves in the works.
An estimated quarter of a million New York residents will move upstate for good, while another 2 million could permanently move out of the state. More than 16,000 New York residents have already relocated to suburban Connecticut. The preliminary figures show New York is also losing citizens to rural New England and Florida in significant numbers. Similar trends are happening in other large urban areas. There is a political element within the domestic migration at play across the nation, but what is more telling is the level of movement to suburban areas and rural towns.
Over 40 percent of urbanites have browsed online for real estate, more than twice the level of people who live in the country. Redfin reports that more than a quarter of searches on its website are by urbanites in Seattle, San Francisco, and the District of Columbia searching for homes across less populated places. While real estate sales are down in San Francisco, where prices are falling by more than 50 percent, demand in its suburbs has been soaring, where prices are rising by almost 10 percent.
There has been a sharp uptick in interest in moving out to Montana, with the majority of new inquiries coming from California. Real estate sales in Montana are 10 percent higher than at this time last year. Rural Colorado, Oregon, and Maine have seen similar upticks in property sales. Vermont is going through a renaissance in real estate, with an agent there remarking that “people are buying houses without even seeing them.”
Some of the biggest changes are less obvious, yet even the hidden trends support the idea that cities are emptying out. In March and April, over 2 million young people moved back in with their parents or grandparents. If the allure of cities declines further due to the risk of disease, a sputtering economy, and a future of telework, the flight to suburban and rural safety will continue well after a coronavirus vaccine hits the market.
Social unrest and urban crime rate spikes also raise the possibility of a sharp increase of exits from large cities. A breakdown in order, especially if police are defunded, could further downsize cities rebuilt with law and order approaches. Urban trends of the last 50 years are being reversed. Instead of smaller towns and rural areas facing the steep declines, large metropolitan areas may soon be the places bleeding citizens.
The moves and the circumstances that precipitated them will likely cause profound changes in the places receiving the most coronavirus refugees. It is still too early to forecast the political impacts of these demographic trends, but they could be significant. Floods of former urbanites could bring more taxes, restrictions, and regulations to these areas.
On the other hand, an influx of money could reinvigorate former industrial towns. A curious question is whether the waves of new residents will see these smaller areas as their real homes or as places of convenience that need to be reshaped in the image of the cities they fled from.
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Kill them on sight.
White Flight 2.0
Same idea, Raider. I think WF 1.0 happened in the 70’s.
In N.Y. it started in earnest in the 50’s
I’m here in NW Montana and it is happening. I really hope we have a couple of bad winters to chase them out. If they stick around I give it less than 10 years before this area is full on blue, it’s already purple and this would push it over the top.
Same here in Texas….prime farmland going under the developer bulldozer, shit tons of apartments going up and the once lovely country side is turned into strip malls and subdivisions…bastards. May they all rot in hell and may all developers be skinned alive and salted.
From this:
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To this….
Lots of problems get solved with billions of people being deaded.
Isn’t this one of the main reasons for agenda 21?
Glockster.
It’s the only thing I can’t vigorously disagree with in the whole agenda.
Fleabaggs, there is always a kernel of truth in something.
1. They believe that most are too stupid to run their own lives – correct.
2. They believe that the Earth is being too polluted-correct
3. They believe that most people want someone else to be responsible for their ‘needs’-correct.
4. They believe Earth is overpopulated-correct.
5. They believe that it takes totalitarian tactics to control people- correct
Until their is a seismic upward shift in spiritual consciousness things will stay on this path because nature abhors a vacuum.
Jaz
#4 is incorrect. Although it is overpopulated with libtards at the moment the earth could easily support 3 or 4 times the population using smarter greener agriculture. Of course that won’t happen in this life it certainly could sustain the population.
Being somewhat reclusive I wouldn’t mind a thinning from a selfish standpoint. Who does the thinning is where the fight starts.
Fleabaggs, I guess I’m spoiled living out where I do. That’s the kicker about all I previously mentioned: they are self-appointed Gods. The self -sufficient people are not going to put up with these people, one way or another.
The total amount of lifeforms that the earth can support depends on the energy from the sun , nutrients from the soil, and use of stored energy which depletes with its use. The more humans there are, the more other lifeforms are eliminated. I call this my greene theorem. Even if oil renews itself as some think, its renewal still depends on the sun’s energy output.
It’s not the numbers of people-it is what conditions do you wish to live with. This planet is at or past it’s limit already as far as I can see.
It only looks that way because the numbers of people coming from other cultures (who refuse to adapt to our culture) has exploded since the 60’s due to immigration reform laws.
What would America be like if we never had the immigration and instead tripled the number of 1950’s Americans?
3 downers but nobody saying what they disagree with. Did the word green send someone off on a tangent.
Chemical Agribusiness and transportation bottlenecks and politics are bigger impediments to more population. Living in split level ranches and other extravagant lifestyles are coming to an end for the middle classes because it’s unsustainable with present technology. Smarter housing should not be a Prog meme, it should be the purview of conservatives.
Downers because “3-4 times the population” can be sustained is utter nonsense.
Living the hardscrabble farmer’s life is a privilege through personal skills, accumulated science and technology and a blessed landscape. Not anywhere your numbers will be the intellectual & geographical space to do this!
Dear Mr. Utter Nonsense.
Do the math.
Living HSF’s lifestyle was the lifestyle prior to 1940.
Accumulated science is part of the problem in food production.
You are confusing emotion with fact.
Nowhere did I say we would do it. I said the earth could sustain it with SMARTER, GREENER methods. This also includes plenty of meat.
Do the math on todays population per square mile. It would fit inside the state of Texas nicely. Don’t go off on a tangent about Texas. Just do the math. 4 Texas size states is hardly a blip on the map and with intensive gardening in areas not conducive to large scale farming and using diverse livestock management it would be doable.
The ‘electric renaissance’ would change people’s priorities from the materialistic and perpetually distracted to one of survival and creating things of value. This whole paradigm has to be changed at the root, nothing else will work.
A developer recent put in apartments for ‘at needs’ people in my area. Funny how they never shit in their own upscale neighborhood.
Just do not bring your bankrupt liberal ideas with you and you might be accepted after a dozen years or so.
Unfortunately, a lotta these self-righteous dick-bags are gonna come to your fine locales, thinking they are smarter than you because they come from the BIG CITY … Keep most of them (not necessarily all of them) the fuck out, somehow!!
What the article didn’t point out is the crime rate far out weighing the reported ones. Especially in the local newspapers.
If sane people’s in the Capitol of Florida, Tallahassee (the city I fled from), knew the real scoop, they’d be pulling up stakes too.
Inevitably, drs., lawyers, Indian chiefs and others will follow the wise herd out as that is what I’ve seen since leaving 4 yrs ago.
Kudos to you, HSF for being ahead of the curve with purpose.
To those considering coming out to anywhere…
Respect the area you’re arriving.
Gain a perspective on how nature and it’s people’s live together.
Come Armed.
Expect to do far far more for yourself.
And keep your vulgar mouth shut.
And no boom boxes.
Marx’s # 9.? Combination of agriculture with manufacturing industries; gradual abolition of all the distinction between town and country by a more equable distribution of the populace over the country.
Tho i had always thought keeping the population in the cities to be a better play by the PTB, cities being easier to maintain as an open air prison, but they can load the cities back up with the third world to fill the void.
“but they can load the cities back up with the third world to fill the void.” The beginning of the next RE boom. Reinflate or die.
I have one stiletto in and one stiletto out. I just can’t shake the idea the people fleeing the city now aren’t the douche bags who screwed it up in the first place. Oy. I pray for guidance.
I believe I have the perfect example of the 4th Turning.
We arrived in Minneapolis (from the east coast) in 1980. It was paradise. Manageable traffic, park downtown easily, low property taxes, it was a breeze. I believe it was $.10 an hour to park at a meter downtown. Slowly it morphed. By 1995 it grew more hectic. Fast forward to 2020 – you notice 40 years – 2 Turnings. It’s now insane. Park in a deck – $12 for the first hour.
Now the riots – the largest property damage except for the LA riots of 1992.
This is a defining moment. Minneapolis has turned the corner. We have joined all the other Democrat run cities with rampant crime, property damage, homeless. It’s time for my wife and I to move on.
Now?
Is New Mogadishu not all that it is cracked up to be?
Dutch.
I was in and out of Minnie and Moorehead in the 80′ and early 90’s and I remember how in a fit of generosity they started giving out incredibly generous welfare bennies to anyone. My last time through around 94 Minnie was full of Chicago Splivs and African refugees just as you described.
Better hurry before that stone house with the stone garage, on that stone beautiful lake is overrun with stoned kneegrows looking to stone you.
“A curious question is whether the waves of new residents will see these smaller areas as their real homes or as places of convenience that need to be reshaped in the image of the cities they fled from.”
Nothing curious about it.
Without fail, they fill it with their Yuppie Liberal polution.
Progtard, Commie, Maoist, Trotskyite and jihadist ideologies come part and parcel with the current crop of urban escapees. ANd remember: They just love Negroes.
Keep them the fuck away from me.
The Blue Belly Carpet Baggers will turn Florida Blue probably in 2020 and I will be moving on to Tennessee. Ain’t got no use for Florida now, fuck’n yankees turned my state into a Blue Welfare cow.
Just wait, rhs jr, for the state, once overrun by the Northern Demoncratz, to initiate an income tax to pay for all those progtard programs they love including Drag Queen Story Hour and partial birth abortions.
Fleabaggs nailed it, this wave of departing liberals/progressives is a bad sign for the rest of us who are either gone or getting to be gone. they will leave behind the cesspool it took them 50 yrs to create and than work hard to mold paradise into the their latest version of Hell on Earth. stay vigilant they are not on our side no matter what they say
I don’t think it is the Progressives abandoning the big cities. They still believe in their cities even as their downtowns burn, buildings are all boarded up, and the homeless have set up their tents on every vacant lot. The blues want to live in the cities for the cultural opportunities, fine restaurants, and all the other things that make cities wonderful. Too bad the riots and pandemic put an end to all that stuff. But the blues are still holding onto the hope that the cities will return to their glory.
Instead, it is the city folks who don’t drink the liberal kool-aid who are looking around and saying: Fuck this, I’m out of here.
After a couple years the great sorting will be nearly complete with the cities occupied by minorities and ultra-liberals and the countryside and suburbs providing residence to more clear-thinking people. At that point we will need to build some walls the keep the city-dwellers confined to their wonderful environs.
I beg to differ. Progs are scared shitless and always the first to run. They are the last to know their policies are the ones that ruin everything. That’s why they never learn. They just try harder. I can’t tell you how many ardent anti-gun zealots are all for owning guns now. They are dumb fucks.
Trapped.
Sorry but that ain’t how it played out in Montana and upstate NY. I’m intimately familiar with both and have watched it happen over 40 years. The one exception was northern Idaho and then only because a wealthy conservative fugative from Cali persuaded his friends to follow and had a plan ready to impliment. It started with taking over small town city and county governments. The Soros Inc. dems are wise to it now so it won’t happen again.
Which Idaho Town?? I won’t tell….
Doug.
I was quoting from memory the story of how Idaho went from blue to red. I can’t recall the mans name but it wasn’t just one town. It was copied all over the area. They were not alone. The area already had quite a few old school conservative dems. Eventually the took the state legeslature over. I can’t remember that much of the story anymore. The first thing they did was go right to work to curb union democrat power.
Doug.
https://www.boisestatepublicradio.org/post/how-idaho-became-one-party-state#stream/0
Scroll down about 4 pages.
When the wealthy and middle class leave the cities they will quickly degrade deeper into impoverished crime infested hell holes.
When the migrating city folk turn the rural states blue it’s over Amerika.
Stick a fork in it.
They should stay and fix their cities.
It’s already over. Duck and hide and shoot when necessary.
I work for a real estate appraiser and I can tell you over 90% of what is selling lately is small acreages. Regular suburban homes are few and far between.
Oh gee, the great EC remembers some song from the last century that might be somewhat related to the topic at hand. How touching. Take your canned heat and blow it out your ass.
That was a good song from canned heat.
What crawled up IlurvCovid2’s ass tonight? Asswipe.
Guess you didn’t see EC’s response to my heartfelt emotional explanation of how my parents won’t even come to my son’s (their first grandson’s) wedding celebration cuz of Muh Corona. It was cruel. Fuck him.
ILCO2- No, I missed that. Perhaps he was having a bad day, El is not a cruel person. Carry on……
Carbon
Coydog doesn’t always think about what he says before he hits the send button but he’s not cruel.
EC- Are the commies fleeing from LA and Horrorwood to the AV? Has Bakersfield turned Marxist? Will the homos migrate from San Fran? KY is still fairly normal, we’ll keep a light on for you and the Sexy M.
I’m a land broker in the high desert of Northwest Arizona. We were always steady for years, had a boom in 2005-2008, and then a long time bust. Selling land meant being broke for the most part since then. Luckily, we had saved during the good times.
This year though, the good times are back as many are seeing the advantage of being on 40 acres. Not only can one be self sufficient, but there’s no worry about social distancing. In the residential arena, sales are as busy as I’ve ever seen them. Prices are back to “bubblelicious,” and still flying off the page. Normally, when temperatures climb, we slow down, but this year the phone keeps ringing even in summer.
We too worry that our very red county could turn blue over time. Most new folks I’ve met seem to be on the conservative side though.
Glad we were here 20 years ahead of the rest…
Got land? They’re not making any more of it!
I’m a retired MD with a specialty in Infectious Disease living with my family on a mountain about sixty-five miles north of New York City in the mid Hudson Valley. We have been here since 1680, and are surrounded by approximately three thousand acres of ancient deciduous forest, which is the remnant of a Charter granted to us by Charles II. Fortunately, it is inaccessible and unbuildable. We also have an Air B&B, and shut our business, except for First Responders, down for eight weeks beginning in the first week of March. Since we reopened in May, we are now solidly booked well into September, with October and early November starting to fill.
Nearly all of our guests are from the City, and at lease two thirds of them are urgently looking for property here in Ulster County as far north as Catskill, Our guests also tell us that they are afraid to go out at night, and that the police have largely withdrawn from the worst areas. The looting and rioting also spread into the upper East Side, although it was largely confined to the shops on Madison Avenue just above 59th street.
When I visited the City in the second week of February, I was astounded by the changes which had occurred over the space of one year, and this was still three weeks before the first cases of COVID were diagnosed in early March.
At least half of the stores on Fifth Avenue between Grand Central and 59th street were empty, and I saw very few New Yorkers on the street, and this was a fine Saturday morning at around ten am. I was also struck by the large numbers of homeless people living in the vacant storefronts or on the sidewalks.
The pandemic, combined with the smoldering unrest IMO is the last straw, and is precipitating a flight from the City unlike any seen since the Cholera epidemics of the early 19th century. An incident from Ancient History might chime here as a near parallel. The Sack of Rome by Alaric the Visigoth in 410 precipitated a flight from that City from which it did not recover until the return of the Papacy in the late 15th century.
At least Alaric and his horde left Rome after about two weeks, moving on to terrorize and later occupy Roman Spain.
The barbarians in poor, benighted New York City are restless permanent residents.
Sic Transit Gloria Mundi, indeed!
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