Authored by Phillip Magness via The American Institute for Economic Research,
Most of the United States entered into a tepid reopening from the COVID lockdowns in mid-May. Although the reopening process has advanced through an interminable succession of bureaucratic phases with most of the country remaining under varying degrees of restriction as of mid-July, the reopening process has remained under sustained criticism from the media and a segment of the epidemiology profession since the moment it started.
Back on May 24th the epidemiology team at Imperial College London (ICL) published a study that expanded on their now-notorious COVID-19 model. Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson both cited the apocalyptic projections of this report and its lead author Neil Ferguson back in March to justify their decisions to lock everything down.
The follow-up ICL paper from May attempted to model the effects of reopening in 5 US states: New York, Massachusetts, California, Washington, and Florida.
In all five cases, the Imperial College team predicted an aggressive rebound of COVID-19 fatalities under even the most modest relaxation of stay-at-home policies and practices.
To illustrate this pattern, the ICL team presented three scenarios based on the expected change in human mobility in each state after the lifting of lockdown restrictions. The first scenario kept the lockdowns in place, assuming that mobility would remain constant at its severely reduced post-lockdown rate. Under the other two scenarios, the ICL team assumed a 20% and 40% increase of mobility corresponding with the reopening process.
In both of these reopening scenarios, the model depicted a catastrophic rebound of COVID-19 fatalities. As the ICL team itself put it, their model “illustrate[s] the potential consequences of increasing mobility across the general population: in almost all cases, after 8 weeks, a 40% return to baseline [mobility] leads to an epidemic larger than the current wave.” Media reports at the time touted the study’s dire warnings as reasons to stall the reopening process – even at its sluggish pace of recurring 2-week delays and extensions.
More than 8 weeks have passed since the publication of the ICL team’s warnings against reopening, meaning we can now see how their model performed.
[ZH: Here are the national-level stats for COVID Cases (blue) and Deaths (red)…]
As with other examples of ICL COVID modeling, their attempt to predict the effects of a US reopening can only be described as an embarrassing scientific failure.
The image below shows the three modeled scenarios from May, as depicted in the ICL report for the five states under consideration. Note that even under the “constant mobility” scenario of remaining under lockdown, their model predicted an increase in COVID deaths for every state except New York, which had already peaked. Under the reopening scenarios where mobility increased 20% and 40% respectively from its lockdown state, all five states were predicted to surge into apocalyptic territory by the middle of July. Under the 40% scenario, this even entailed upper boundaries of more than 4,000 deaths per day (the bands represent the 95% confidence interval). Massachusetts and New York, two of the hardest-hit states from the first wave back in March and April, would easily match or exceed their previous COVID-19 daily death records.
To see how these predictions held up, I indicated the daily death totals for each state for July 20th with a small red dot on the graphs above. As you can see, the actual totals are below the ICL model’s predictions in every scenario. In Massachusetts, the current daily death totals are even falling below the lower boundary of the ICL model’s projections for both its 20% and 40% mobility increase scenarios.
Coronavirus cases and deaths have spiked in two of the modeled states, Florida and California. As of the week of July 20th, both are averaging between roughly 100 and 150 deaths per day. Yet even with this “second wave” spike, Florida and California are only showing about one-tenth of the projected deaths that the Imperial College modelers predicted for this time back in May.
In New York, Washington, and Massachusetts, daily death counts have dropped to the low double-digits and remain a tiny fraction of the ICL predictions for mid-July.
Although all five states remain under COVID-19 restrictions of varying degrees, even partial reopening has increased mobility at levels that match or exceed the ICL’s modeled scenarios. The main Google mobility indicators for Massachusetts are depicted below for reference, and show a clear upward trend since the time of the ICL predictions in mid-May.
These patterns confirm that US mobility trends are increasing as lockdown restrictions are slowly lifted, and as society moves toward reopening. They therefore show that the ICL model correctly anticipated one effect of relaxing the lockdowns.
At the same time though, the ICL model severely overstated the projected mortality associated with reopening in all five states. Actual data do not map onto any of their scenarios, including the broadest of the three predictions for reopening. States that peaked back in March and April show no signs of a resurgence, let alone the predicted resurgence that would surpass the first wave. And states that are undergoing later surges are still well below the ICL team’s predictions – so far below that they barely even register on the graphs.
As with other predictions from the ICL team, the May paper likely faltered due to a fundamental error in its underlying code. These flawed ICL models begin with an unproven assumption, namely that lockdowns are effective at combating the coronavirus. The models are therefore automatically calibrated to produce a sharp spike in deaths after the removal of lockdowns or any move toward reopening.
As we’re now seeing in actual data however, that assumption is grossly exaggerated. As a result, the predictive ability of Imperial College’s COVID epidemiology modeling amounts to little more than an exercise in statistical astrology.
It is my sincere desire to provide readers of this site with the best unbiased information available, and a forum where it can be discussed openly, as our Founders intended. But it is not easy nor inexpensive to do so, especially when those who wish to prevent us from making the truth known, attack us without mercy on all fronts on a daily basis. So each time you visit the site, I would ask that you consider the value that you receive and have received from The Burning Platform and the community of which you are a vital part. I can't do it all alone, and I need your help and support to keep it alive. Please consider contributing an amount commensurate to the value that you receive from this site and community, or even by becoming a sustaining supporter through periodic contributions. [Burning Platform LLC - PO Box 1520 Kulpsville, PA 19443] or Paypal
-----------------------------------------------------
To donate via Stripe, click here.
-----------------------------------------------------
Use promo code ILMF2, and save up to 66% on all MyPillow purchases. (The Burning Platform benefits when you use this promo code.)
“Covid deaths.” Do those include the motorcycle accident Covid deaths, too? What about the 95 year olds who died of old age but were found to have a covid spore in their body at the time of death?
This is all bullshit, a big lie. It makes the 9/11 lie look like a mere fib.
That’s why I usually skip over articles like this, since the entire premise is wrong. How can we even assert an actual number of “Covid deaths” when we can’t even be sure the causes of death were actually covid?
How about”Covid cases?” Person isn’t sick, but the swab they shoved up their nose indicated the presence of “Covid.” This becomes a “new case.” I wonder how many other viruses are sitting up our noses, just hanging out, not doing anything?
Mail-in voting…
Covid has turned into political theater. The actual medical science has been completely bastardized. Those cotton tipped swabs they are cramming into your brainstem have something like a 70% false positive. Sign me up, NOT.
I’m surprised Trump bailed on party meeting in Jacksonville. Living just south of Jax I was looking forward to seeing the show.
Yes it has
Once glitteringly magnificent impact that Covid has had is it has made it easier-than-ever-before to spot the idiots, sheep, fish and morons. We went through Montana yesterday. You’da thought the bubonic plague was raging through the state. Good golly.
It’s obvious that the “coronavirus” epidemic is a sham of the highest proportion. It is totally political in nature, with “blue state” governors perpetuating business-damaging “lockdowns” in their respective states.
Both professional and political arrogance is responsible for the present state of the world economy and world population as well.
A common annual “flu virus” was promoted as a “pandemic” by the “smartest” and “best and brightest” people in positions of power, both in the USA and in the rest of the world. It’s actually a “plandemic” foisted on the American public to bring down the Trump administration. It will fail…
These “best and brightest” convinced political “leaders” to impose mandatory business closures, “lockdowns” and “quarantines” on healthy populations, which is contrary to every common sense and scientific principle.
These “business closures” were not imposed “across the board”, but were picked by political hacks as “winners and losers”. Liquor stores, marijuana dispensaries, lottery retailers, and certain “big box” home improvement and sporting goods stores were permitted to remain in operation, while churches and just about all small businesses were forced to close.
In some states, the political arrogance was so great, plant nurseries, seed distributors, and other businesses were deemed “non-essential” and forced to close. Even “big box” stores were prohibited from selling lawn and garden supplies. Many restaurants were also put out of business by these clearly unconstitutional edicts.
Imposing “quarantines” and “lockdowns” on healthy people does nothing to insure public health, and in fact delays necessary herd immunity.
Public health is further damaged by business closures, especially small businesses whose owners rely on continuing business as a means of making a living, both for themselves and their employees.
A major problem is that these “best and brightest” and political “leaders” are so arrogant that they refuse to admit that “they screwed up, big time”. Instead, they “double down” and inflict further pain on the public by refusing to insist that “they were wrong”. None of them will pay personally for their arrogance, stupidity, and just outright dishonesty and criminality.
All one has to do is look at the “coronavirus hospitals” that were created to handle the “overflow” of coronavirus patients which never materialized. These “hospitals” were a waste of taxpayer dollars and did absolutely nothing to promote public health.
At the same time, local hospitals were required to cease admissions, even for those of an emergency nature. Although not specifically stated, people with real health problems were covertly “encouraged” to avoid hospitals at all costs because of the phony “coronavirus” claims.
Health professionals are also responsible for the current state of affairs, also refusing to admit that “they screwed up, big time” as well, and continue to insist that this annual flue is a “pandemic”.
Then we have the “heavy hitters” with money, such as Bill Gates and Stephen Fauci who claim that they have “solutions” to our (artificially contrived) health problems. Gates is so arrogant the he feels that he can get away with genocide by using mandatory vaccinations to “cull” the world population.
Gates “vaccination” programs in third-world countries failed to adhere to good medical practices, and the Nuremberg principle that “informed consent” must reign supreme in the administration of all medical procedures.
Gates’ “vaccination” programs introduced polio into children in India for which he and his program were banned from the country. Gates’ African “vaccination” programs surreptitiously introduced sterilization and birth-control compounds as part of their vaccination program without gaining “informed consent” from the recipients.
According to these moneyed types and even “health care” officials, we are to be branded, tagged, and treated like cattle with no means to make informed choices about our health or health care decisions.
Wearing masks and “social distancing” are no different than the “security theater” that we experience at airports with the TSA.
It’s “medical tyranny” at its best and scientific dishonesty at its worst.
There are no valid reasons for “mask-wearing” or “social distancing” for healthy people. In fact, in the coming months, look for an increase in respiratory illnesses affecting mask-wearers, especially those who are forced to wear masks for extended periods of time. In hospital settings, masks are supposed to be worn for only 10 minutes at a time before they are replaced.
“Lockdowns”, “business closures”, and “quarantining” of healthy people is being used for “control” and nothing more. The “powers that be” are desirous to see “how far they can go” to get the world population to accede to their demands.
Fortunately, there are a lot more of us than there are of them. We (still) have the power of the internet to bypass the “filters” that they put in place to keep us from seeing their “real” motives.
I’ve been watching PA statistics with personal interest. I’ve also watched them cooking the books on the official site. Death counts for previous days magically go up. When I had checked late last night there hadn’t been double digit corona deaths in a state that averages 159 deaths per day of heart disease. Last night, the number on the last date there was statistics was 1. Locked down for 1 death! The days previous were 3,3,&2.
I just checked again because we play “guess the number” and the 1 last night is now 6. The other numbers have become 12,10, and 6. Still, when compared to 159 per day this does not justify a lockdown.
I tried to send this article to admin 2x, but the mail app on my phone kept eating it rather than sending it. Using the statistics from this study, PA is at 21% and is now into “Herd Immunity”.
I suppose you can’t sell vaccines to people that have already had the disease and aren’t scared anymore. They need people terrified for a host of reasons but the biggest is that scared people don’t make good decisions.
NEVER FORGET!! “Figures don’t lie, but LIARS can figure”.
Florida Virus deaths include a gunshot to the head, and other total B.S.!!!
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/gunshot-head-parkinsons-disease-deaths-palm-beach-incorrectly-attributed-covid-19