Historian who has accurately called every election since 1984 says Biden will beat Trump in 2020 presidential race

Via Marketwatch

The historian who is known affectionately as the granddaddy of presidential prediction models says that Democratic presumptive nominee Joe Biden is a shoo-in to win the 2020 presidential race.

The American University historian Allan Lichtman’s predictions are something worth paying attention to because he has forecast accurately every election since 1984, including President Donald Trump’s stunning victory in 2016 over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton.

In an op-ed video with the New York Times published on Wednesday, Lichtman’s model, as per usual, outlines his 13 keys to the White House that now lead him to believe that Biden is on track to secure a victory at the Nov. 3 election.

This time around, Lichtman’s prognostications should come as no surprise given national polls indicate that Biden command’s a substantial lead over the incumbent president.

Biden at 49.4% holds a 7 percentage point lead over Trump at 42.4%, according to a national poll average by Real Clear Politics.

Lichtman says Biden leads Trump on seven of the 13 true-or-false criteria he looks at to assess the ultimate winner of the race to the White House, which includes factors such as the economy, foreign policy, scandals, social unrest and even the charisma of the candidate and the health of the economy.

To be sure, the model is not scientific but Lichtman’s results deserve attention if only for the novelty of seeing how his forecast plays out.

Recently, Trump via Twitter has been pushing his economic and market prowess as factors that he hopes can lead him to a victory in November. On Monday, he claimed that a record high for the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, 0.53%, achieved in the wake of the carnage wrought by the pandemic, would all “come crashing down” if Biden wins the election.

The Nasdaq has soared nearly 60% since hitting a March 23 low and has booked 30 record highs so far in 2020, while the S&P 500 index SPX, 0.65% has climbed 48% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, 1.18%, has climbed by about 46% over the same period.

Still, the success of the stock market isn’t likely to be enough to secure a win for Trump. Strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. have made the case that a win for the former vice president would be a “neutral to slight positive” for stocks.

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22winmag - TBP's Latter Day Shit-poster
22winmag - TBP's Latter Day Shit-poster

Stunning victory in 2016?

Trump and company is a “gay op” drag-queen style.

View post on imgur.com

View post on imgur.com

The GOP’s natural position is on the bottom, in a minority role.

Mygirl....Maybe

Winnie Child, your material is so stale it’s grown mold. Time for you to get out of the house and into the fresh air. I truly hope you don’t think that posting the same shit and imagery over and over and over is going to make people appreciate it.

A fight in August (ec)
A fight in August (ec)

It’s funny that Winnie left ZH because of the repetitive (crypto) articles. Winnie was actually fresh when he posted Mathis bullshit.

Craven Warrior
Craven Warrior

Does anyone really think it matters now? It’s not like one bag of wind is better or has any more power than the other.

bigfoot
bigfoot

I get it. Your view is to get to the worst sooner than later so that when we have full-blown Communism in place we can get past all this turmoil and get on with the purges and gulags and beneficial state control of our minds and bodies. Peace at last, and we can then focus on starvation.

CCRider
CCRider

Right. If the Dummos were in the white house there would be a destroyed economy, out of control spending and riots in the street.

Wait….

Articles of Confederation

LOLLLL

TC
TC

Don’t forget black felons let out of prisons, floods of immigrants (“greatest numbers EVER”) and 24×7 GloboHomo. Trump cultists are just as bad as the Clinton cultists, maybe worse.

CCRider
CCRider

Worse for sure. Clinton cultists KNOW where they’re going. Trumpsters are just ‘At least he’s not _______ (fill in the blank).

ottomatik
ottomatik

Not true, I am a fan of him stand alone.

CCRider
CCRider

Yes, you are standing alone. With your head in the sand.

Mygirl....Maybe

Well lookee here, the Never Trumpers are out in force again, Nothing new or inspiring, same old bash Trump and nothing to offer other than bash Trump and whine….tsk. So sorry little fellas, perhaps you should head to Yahoo or some other leftist comment section, go join your kindred spirits. Admit it. You all are democrats and pining for the day Biden the Senile is in office…senile you can understand and get behind.

CCRider
CCRider

Ooooh how brave. You vote every 4 years to save the Republic-or what’s left of it. Besides you sell me short. I’m not a never-trumper. I’m a never-governmenter.

Glock-N-Load
Glock-N-Load

Brilliant comment.

Articles of Confederation

Correction: Big Mike will win in 2020. He has been awfully quiet these last few months, although his wife surfaces every now and again (Rep. Lewis’s funeral comes to mind) to (re)fan the flames of discontent.

hardscrabble farmer
hardscrabble farmer

Spurious claim.

Lichtmann tried to straddle the fence in his prediction, calling Trump a possible winner of the popular vote, but cautioning-

“Although the number of ballots cast by voters for each candidate counts, it does not ultimately determine who takes the White House. In a process known as the Electoral College, the candidate who wins a majority of 538 electoral votes is the victor. ”

followed up by-

“However, I also noted that Donald Trump is such a dangerously precedent-breaking candidate that he could upset the verdict of history and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.”

If that is supposed to be a prediction of Trump winning the 2016 Presidential election, it’s pretty thin gruel.

NickelthroweR
NickelthroweR

Greetings,
I live in the bell weather state of Ohio these days. Ohio, far more than the clown written about here decides the election – period. That said, if Biden is running for president you wouldn’t know it by visiting Ohio. As I travel across the state I see Trump banners, flags, bumper stickers, barn paintings, car wraps, MAGA hats, t-shirts, etc. What I have yet to see anywhere is something with Biden’s name on it.

I went to the largest tri-state flea market last weekend and even the black people I saw were dressed up in MAGA gear. Having come from California, I could hardly believe my eyes.

Jimbo
Jimbo

You need to get out more. I’m also in Ohio and there are a lot of Biden signs around.

Anonymous
Anonymous

I’m all over Indiana , Ohio and Kentucky and Trump stuff is 500 to 1. I rarely see anything Biden.

maddmatt
maddmatt

If you’re speaking of Traders World, we must be neighbors.comment image

Glock 1911 M1A .308
Glock 1911 M1A .308

Biden will probably stuff a shoe in his own ass before he gets a “shoo-in” to the white house.

CCRider
CCRider

I don’t think Trump wants another 4 years. I see no real passion in his campaign so far. No wall-no immigration-no more end of wars. He wakes up to acosta and goes to sleep with maddow with chuck todd in between. Who needs this shit? He proved all the obummer assholes wrong and won the presidency. That’s in the ‘W’ column forever.

I imagine him thinking “I could be golfing 5 days a week, eating Kentucky Fried daily and banging Playboy bunnies”. This country is fucked anyway, why stick around for the last act?

The problem is that the Dummos are so Nucking Futz THEY might reelect him. Like my Uncle Mike would exclaim in matters such as this: Fuuuuuck Meee!

A dim light in August (ec)
A dim light in August (ec)

Cease, I quit wondering who Trump is so long ago. He could be JFK, he could be Truman, he could be Ronnie, he could be Poppa Bush. He is looking a little frayed.

Articles of Confederation

He has to win if he doesn’t want to end up in prison. For what? To the Marxists, who fucking cares! They make shit up as they go.

Matrix of light in August (ec)
Matrix of light in August (ec)

At this point, I call the Decepticons communists.

ottomatik
ottomatik

He has to win for his kids, its all or nothing now, they will fuck with his children forever.

Mygirl....Maybe

Please, he can walk away and his kids will be fine. The real person who has kid issues is Biden and fils. Snorty McCokeface Hunter and the Ukraine and China malfeasance loom large with Biden if Trump prevails.

ottomatik
ottomatik

I think you are underestimating the murderous, spiteful, all consuming lust for power, this cabal is immersed with. He has damaged them badly, if he does not finish them, they will spend decades tormenting/ eliminating his descendants. A la the Kennedys.
Do you think that plane went down in Aspen from mechanical failure?
Nope.
Add it to the pool of Kennedy blood extracted from the cabal for Kennedy transgressions.
This adds to my suspicion/understanding that the Kennedy family and the Trump family have united against the cabal, most visibly represented by the Bush/Clinton syndicate.

Articles of Confederation

Agreed, they will never stop. Which is why I have been saying that you’ve gotta punch, bite, and kick below the belt. Throw out what conservatives like to call the rule of law which is non-existent anyways. He needs to have learning sessions with Putin.

Taras 77
Taras 77

He might decide that he needs a get out of jail free card to defend against impending legal troubles. Not sure we have been apprised of all of investigations “out there.”

Yahsure
Yahsure

The whole novelty of being the President is long gone. Its 24-7 hate on the guy. Ask a hater why and they can’t even come up with an actual reason. A Biden Presidency? There are so many people who have so much ammo. I still haven’t seen one Biden for President bumper sticker.

bobdog
bobdog

I still can’t figure out how Biden will win the White House from his basement. He won’t go to the nominating convention, in all likelihood won’t appear in person for debates, if he shows at all, and his video “news conferences” attract less than 50 viewers. And when he does appear on camera, he can’t read from a teleprompter and he can’t construct a sentence that isn’t hand crafted by his handlers.

So how does he get from there to the presidency of the United States?

Inconthievable.

Anonymous
Anonymous

No way. There is a huge walk away campaign of folks fleeing the Dem party. The media just doesn’t report on it.

Trump seems worn out…but, for God’s sakes, he’s human, not a machine! Who could stand the constant barrage year after year.

Anonymous
Anonymous

Come on people when has things ever gotten better when your guy gets into the white house? This is just another implementation of divide and conquer by the same folks who own the senate and all the other politicians. The same people who brought in millions of ignorant well fare recipients from around the world but especially non European. The same people that sponsor riots, homosexuallity, and social justice. No matter who is in the white house nothing will get better.

We need to walk away from this system and not participate in it. There is nothing left worth trying to save at this point.

MrLiberty
MrLiberty

The system IS the problem and has always been the problem. There are plenty of things worth saving, but the “United” States, the political parties, the political process, the federal government, and so much more, definitely are NOT among those things.

javelin
javelin

Things worth trying to save: … actually getting 70% of my paycheck….. my right to send my children to private schools…… what’s left of my culture and history ( to at least slow the erosion)…….. my Second Amendment rights….. my rights to express my faith openly….. my right to self defense …. my right to personal property and to use it and live on it as I choose…….. my right to not be taxed because of my skin color and/or pay “reparations”…… my right to not be tagged, chipped, tracked etc….

Some of these are seeing the slow erosion at the edges from compromising with leftists and globalists, but make no mistake, four more years to prepare for the inevitable tribulation to come would be invaluable.

If I were a marxist shill, I probably would go to conservative websites and repeatedly try and convince them not to vote.

Folks–never forget how deeply we are HATED by these deranged, demonic people. Now envision them in charge of a national police force armed with military equipment, tens of thousands of drones already in use flying over your bugout locations, the ability to shut off your bank accounts and purchasing ability because of your faith or political leanings. Anyone who tells you not to vote or at least make an attempt to stave off the horrors of the “Marxist Utopia” is at best misguided, at worst an operative of the enemy who just wants you to concede. That same mentality will buy you a seat on a cattle car or at a FEMA camp……..

ottomatik
ottomatik

Spot on.

Anonymous
Anonymous

My friend have you by chance watched the video about subversion by Yuri Bezmenov? For those that have not its about an hour long presentation by Mr.Bezmenov and occurred sometime in the mid 80’s. He details the steps of subversion or getting an enemy state to destroy itself. Well worth your time if you have not.

If you believe voting will fix things then go vote. I have given up on the collective good people rallying together and saving this country. I go out into the public and I see 90 to 95% at least have conceded to the mask order. Many of these people must be 2nd amendment supporting people with similar views on the current state of affairs as many people on this sight have. Yet even though only a fool would believe the death rate/count of this scamdemic and believe that a piece of cloth over your mouth will save everyone I still see the vast majority follow the mask order. So either these people are really that stupid or they are just doing it because they were ordered to. Either way this country is in the final stage of subversion and nothing short of a major conflict with the gov can fix it which will not happen because look at how obedient the vast majority were putting on their mask.

Articles of Confederation

I agree. But then there are people like me who refuse to vote because I am sick and goddamn tired of pretending that it does anything except slow down the inevitable. No thanks. Because of what is already in place, I’ll never be able to comfortably retire (fine by me, I’d get bored) and neither will my children (NOT fine by me).

What it boils down to is either I get exactly the liberty we fought and bled for as Colonists, or I refuse to acknowledge the system and its processes that inhibit it. Like voting. I’m not compromising anymore.

Wanna know why revolution is assured? Because of Gen X. We’re sick and tired of being sandwiched in between people who refuse to change and people who want to change every little thing.

ILuvCO2
ILuvCO2

Who cares what he thinks, SO WHAT:

ILuvCO2
ILuvCO2
ottomatik
ottomatik

Choice, Ministry is one of my all time favorites, thanks!

Dirtperson Steve
Dirtperson Steve

Ministry was far & away the best concert I’ve ever seen. That includes Tool & Pink Floyd.

Starfcker
Starfcker

“Lichtman’s results deserve attention.” Hardly. No one ever heard of this guy, no one knows whether he ever actually predicted anything or not. Just another liberal college professor picking the liberal candidate. Who’da thunk that? Trump is going to destroy Biden. You can take that to the bank.

ottomatik
ottomatik

There is no way Biden is the candidate.

starfcker
starfcker

Otto, the Dems don’t have a candidate. That’s been their problem from the get. Can you name a sane Democrat? Now they got to find a second one for VP? Good luck with that.

hardscrabble farmer
hardscrabble farmer

They still have 90 days.

Matrix of light in August (ec)
Matrix of light in August (ec)

Has anybody considered the possibility that Trump is the chosen one again?

Anonymous
Anonymous

If so, it’s just so the collapse happens under him and not a demonrat.

E=mC2
E=mC2

The media is playing up the horse race like Biden has the lead. Where did this come from? Just last year, he was painted as a loser. Once again, we are being played into caring about a fixed race.

That Pelosi ends up appointing a president is too much of a Rube Goldberg to believe. More likely Biden falls flat and Trumpy is re-appointed as per the program.

Mygirl....Maybe

The fact that the dems are pushing a senile old man as a viable candidate is scary. What do they hope to accomplish with a Biden? They could have gotten behind Gabbard or, God forbid, Warren and had at least a cogent candidate. If they are using Biden as a Trojan horse, good luck with that. They can’t even come up with a viable VP and no, Michelle isn’t going for that shit, she’s way too lazy and well off to leave her cushy life.

COST OF WAR
COST OF WAR

It’s not about Biden. It’s about who he picks for VP. THAT is who is being elected using Biden as the way in.

ottomatik
ottomatik

It appears Joe is a punching bag place holder and the actual candidate will be revealed shortly before voting, limiting Trumps ability to dismantle, one of his strengths.
If this fails, the plan is to disrupt the elections into January, allowing the House of Representatives, read Nancy Pelosi, to appoint an acting President.

Articles of Confederation

^ This. It’s obvious to those with eyes. I am watching the time period from the first week of DEC to the third week of JAN based on my calcs off the ECM. I think it’s gonna be madness.

A fight in August (ec)
A fight in August (ec)
E=mC2
E=mC2

It’s not funny if you have to explain it. Hillary will be coming back with the delusion that the country wants her.

Iconoclast421
Iconoclast421

It all depends on whether or not the masses can be educated to the fact that the dems literally destroyed the economy just to attempt to win an election, even going as far as shoving infected into nursing homes to kill a bunch of seniors for political gain. If people wish to reward that behavior then they will get more of it. It goes way beyond politics at this point. Seditious acts aplenty.

bobdog
bobdog

If Biden wins, and Democrats gain control over both houses, you can kiss 5,000 Dow points goodbye. Paul Krugman’s 2016 prediction may come true after all: the market may never recover once Congress is back in session.

I plan to get the hell out of the market if Lichtman’s predictions start looking like they’re coming true.

TampaRed

this was on a site called tothepointnews.com –it’s only a partial article b/c i’m too cheap to pay 4 a subscription but it is an interesting tease–

IS JOE BIDEN’S CAMPAIGN COMMITTING POLITICAL SUICIDE?
by Tyler O’Neill
Guest Author
Thursday, 6th August 2020

Joe Biden and the Democrat Party may have seriously hobbled their election prospects in November by refusing to send out staff and volunteers to campaign door-to-door, building the essential “ground game” that helps win elections.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s campaign and the Republican National Committee (RNC) claim to have volunteers and staff knocking on 1 million doors a week across America.

The Biden campaign and the Democrat National Committee (DNC) claim that they are not committing political suicide but merely adapting to the coronavirus pandemic (what’s the difference?). They told Politico that they can compensate for the lack of in-person canvassing with phone calls, texts, digital organizing, and virtual meet-ups with voters. Right.

The Trump campaign appears to have taken the exact opposite approach.

Read more…

Panzerlied

Lichtman was born into a Jewish family in the Brownsville neighborhood of Brooklyn in New York City. He graduated from Stuyvesant High School. – Well, what do you know? Another Jew making a prediction. I guess that the “selection” has been made. I knew that with Biden’s sharp wit and acumen, he would easily pull it off.
God help us, we’re a nation of fools.

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