Guest Post by CCRider
For all the times in my investment life when I face-planted like a Tourette addled kamikaze pilot, last spring I decided to jump into silver, and now life is beautiful. It’s up 140% since its January low. The instinct now is to sell and pocket the winnings I guess. Only my timing generally sucks and I suspect there is plenty more upside to come. Here, I’m an investor, not a trader.
If you’re now wondering how to weasel your way onto my estate let me quickly add that I am just now approaching break-even from the hole I got into following Stockman’s Wrong-Way-Corrigan investment program advice of Dow shorts following Trump’s election. Everybody who plays this game gets dinged (at least). Everybody.
I pay close attention to the metals and miners. In this economic climate of massive currency creation, it makes rudimentary sense to do so in that the metals typically run contracyclically to the dollar. That means I read and hear plenty of advisors on the subject from Peter Schiff to Eric Sprott. Most are informative but not ones I would pass on. This one is different
Andy Schectman is a metals dealer. He runs a 5 billion dollar metals trading company similar to Sprott. As such he (and I) have confirmation bias to factor in. Because of that I listen to a lot of opinions but with a critical ear. I try not to hear just what I want to hear. But Schectman’s analysis is very compelling and if he is right, silver is staged to soar.
Among the insights he passes on is a federal RICO action against JP Morgan. In the suit, prosecutors name the JP Morgan precious metals desk as a “criminal enterprise”. They amassed 140 million ounces of silver or about 3 times more than the Hunt gang in the 1970s. For the past decade, they raised and crashed the price of silver to their exclusive advantage and minted profits.
That’s illegal of course, but you know banksters. Word around the campfire is that some low-level executives now feeling the heat are ratting out the big guys. How delicious is that? The RICO statutes were used to destroy the five New York crime families. This is serious shit (could I be wrong about Trump?). Bottom line: Morgan who shorted the silver market for ten years is now long. Schectman calls it the most momentous event of his investment life. There’s a lot more.
I stumbled onto “Quoth The Raven” a while back and now it’s a part of my routine. This Philly based podcaster, Chris Irons, is a great interviewer. He’s a very knowledgeable financial expert, a student of the Austrian school and he knows when to talk and when to shut up. I get a lot out of this podcast. You can skip the first 3 or 4 minutes of commercials in the beginning.
Enjoy.
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Thank you for the link to the podcast, CCR. My Silver is My Hedge. And Hedging your dollars is Hedging your wealth.
CCR
I only keep some silver as capital preservation. I’ve been following the money for 50 years as a way to follow politics. If todays dollar is only worth 1 penny something has to give at some point. The banks have been engaging is price supression for quite some time with illegal Naked Shorts. Uncovered short sales. Meaning the market maker failed to match a buyer to the seller. The SEC and every other Fed agency has turned a blind eye to this because they don’t want the public know that the buck is pure fiction. In theory that should price silver near 2,800 bucks. In theory.
280.00 silver seems reasonable someday soon but if the chaos gets too crazy it won’t be worth anything til the dust settles. When it settles and if there is a semblance of civilization left here it will revert to being real money again. Take or leave the info, I just put it out there to offer a different point of view.
Morgan will be fined again and the banks will keep doing what they do(Steal) until God stops them.
Stock up on Faith and Bullets. The more faith you have the less bullets you need. No faith at all equals too many bullets to carry.
Excellent thoughts. Thanks for posting.
Oops. That was me
Very simple, elemental question: what do “traders/investors/portfolio mgrs/financial consultants/bean-counters, BAR-fly LIEyers/PERsecutors/magisTRAITORS, gov agents/regulators/enforcement knuckle-draggers, polluticians/legisTRAITORS, lib-turd SJW academics, Sillywood Hollyweirds/perverts, corp-owned media mavens, sports celebs and other assorted PARASITES contribute to REAL PRODUCTIVE ENTERPRISE?
Answer: NUTH’N!!!
This is Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd at Davos 2020. The interviewers ask what his biggest play is and at 6:40 into the video Minerd replies “silver”. It’s interesting to find that honesty in a big name money manager. Definitely not found with the Goldman people. This is one of the single best videos you’ll see this year.
I’ve been accumulating mining shares and physical for years and now it’s time for it to pay off.
Great clip. Thanks for posting.
e.d.
I laughed out loud the first time I saw this on some You tube PM channel.
Showed it to my wife and said: “You married well”.
(Eye roll response…soon those eyes will be smiling)
And so she did.
I’ve said this here before, but just a reminder that the best and easiest way to store silver is in the form of pre-1965 U.S. ‘junk silver’ coins (dimes, quarters, fifty cent pieces, and silver dollars). You can go into any coin shop and immediately liquidate them for cash, anonymously and tax free, as long as the transaction is less than $10,000.
I choose to keep only the Walking Liberty 50 cent pieces for two reasons: they are immediately recognized as ‘pre-65’ so you don’t have to strain your eyes looking at the date on each coin, and they have less wear because they are the least circulated of all coins.
Obviously, don’t store them in a bank safety deposit box.
Another plus for pre 1965 coins is that if the SHTF you can always go to the nearest farmer and use them to buy food. No insignificant thing.
As a ‘local farmer’…I will probably (unless its Mad Mark time) be happy to trade my veggies, eggs, etc, for some silver.
Maybe even for farm labor paid in silver? (I have a plan/prep for that).
Who knows?
Thing is to have some of it ‘all’ to barter in every direction…unless you are shooting in every direction.
I’m working on that one too.
Its called trading real value for real value. Good luck Farmer mark!
Maybe I’ll pay some of the local good ole boys in need of work in silver dimes and food to man a few spider holes…As a boy I always wanted to be a warlord when I grew up???
The walking liberties wear the fastest, a strait line down liberty, uncirculated are very rare and bring high premiums.
Morgans and peace seem to be a good value still, especially compared to ASE’s, I see them a LCD for 25$.
Hold metals for Q3 Q4 2021 at least.
ottomatik,
Your sell timing could be spot on.
I’ll take some profit before, but if He doesn’t call me home before, I’ll hold the majority as many agree with that time being about the massive launch.
Mark, I think the pop next fall/winter is going to be breath taking and selling per se is but 1 aspect of the transaction, it will be critical to exit the cash imediately and repurchase solid assests, preferably beat up solid assets, as I am sure you are well aware.
I hope the preps are well and the fam is all good.
Silver Dollars have as I type around $23 of Silver content. I don recall exactly but they have somewhere around 800 ounces per $1,000. 90% dimes, quarters and halves run 715 to 723 ounces per $1,000 dependent on wear. Of course there is numismatic value which makes some worth more or a lot more.
While I agree with $120 plus being reasonable based on inflated fiat and a 4,000 year 16-1 ratio with Gold, I am looking for high $30’s minimum. I say that just because the last two times I rode SLV for paper profit I was able to sell in the high $30’s. I can’t say I recall having these day after day 5% moves.
Man, you should see some of my Walking Liberties. They are so worn down and slick as to be almost unrecognizable.
I think the previous owners squeezed them so tight the eagle squawked.
CCR,
Don’t make the mistake of valuing your PMs in a failing fiat currency. Say silver goes to $200 and you sell thinking you made out like a fat cat. Then the dollar devalues considerably more and silver is now $800 per oz! It’s not the price in fiat that matters. It’s the value it has in exchange for something else of value.
This is what happened in Venezuela. An oz of silver was something like $80 Boilvar(?). It went to 400, then 1000, then 2,000, etc. Finally, silver was the last time I heard (6 months ago?) about it was 2,400 TIMES (not percent) its value compared to 18 months prior. It went something like this-2years ago an oz of silver sold for $80 Bolivar, 6 months ago it cost 192,000 Bolivar an oz.
Sell what you need to pay off a mortgage or whatever debt you want to dispose of but where inflation will end up and where or what will owning something of true value be worth in 1-5 years, who knows.
You sound like you have been listening to Lynette Zang. That’s exactly what she always says.
Trade paper. Stack coins and bars.
MC,
Mike Maloney more than anybody. He’s had everything right except timing….and nobody has gotten that right.
Deflation, then inflation, in simplest terms.
Good point Steve,
I’m thinking of starting to sell off ‘some small amounts’ of silver when the ratio to gold gets down around 50 to 1 in general, depending on all events happening at that time.
But, I will take profit in small constant sells, and carefully sniff the air…just how I bought it (started stacking in the early 8o’s).
But, you are correct sir, when I sell I will immediately convert it to other hard assets.
Don’t forget the legacy. My 8 year old Grandson, daughter and son-in –law are stunned how their silver stashes I have been gifting them for the last five years has climbed. Forget the bullshit toys, clothes, spa days, yada, yada, yada, that’s the wife’s area…Dad/Dad-Doo gives silver coins and tubes.
They are sitting up straight as I constantly reminded them where it was going one day, and that ship is just starting to sail.
I have enough fiat for about six months, just in case, but getting rid of 95% of it at a fast clip.
(Donkey – you out there? HOLD!)
Yes, great point. When gold is $50,000 an oz and silver is $400 there will be blood in the streets. But your children will eat.
Listening now. I like Rob Kirby. Here is the latest interview that I know of:
Mary,
Check out the latest on Greg Hunter next…Bo is a wild ride.
Mark, I listened till about 3/4 of the way. He’s kinda all over the place. Pretty sure he would drive Fleabaggs nuts. I’m thinking he’s…actually, I don’t have any words. Wild is as good as any, I suppose.
Too many moving parts makes me feel like Vinny Barbarino.
“Oooohhh My Head Hurts”.
Mary,
Yea, some of his prophecy math and charts look to me like Rube Goldberg drawings, and he made a big bold call a while back and was wrong, but he has made some HUGE bold ‘right’ calls recently.
I haven’t closely screened his work/website. So little time…so many websites.
His timing for G&S agrees with ottomatik’s, he is Post Trib, I’m Pre-Wrath (he is dogmatic about it I am not).
I love his zeal and passion for Christ, and he is a WILD roller coaster ride shooting off fireworks, while tossing out frags. I enjoy him, and I like to listen to them all.
Vinny Flea,
For your headache call your dealer in the morning and buy two Silver Eagles. It will make all of you feel better.
When first buying monster boxes in 2004, I recall the silver mavens saying that one day the premium on silver will be multiples of the price of the day, which was around six dollars. I thought that was not possible. The premium today on eagles has about doubled. Damn but it’s been a long time coming! And miners are rising from the dead and blessing left for dead in IRA portfolios all over the land. Little children who once put their gifted silver dollars under their pillows are now students in college and using algebra to figure how much silver would have to appreciate to cover their tuitions.
Clif High, the genius computer guru, has been saying for years that silver is going to $600, but “you won’t like it.” I take that to mean things then will be wild and wooly and a good deal more primitive. He lives in the NW where water power is the source of most of the electricity. Lots of food grown here, too, and the farmers will have too much of it what with Seattle and Portland dying off and the growers are likely to take silver with which they can trade for fuel, seed, laborers, etc.
May all the wives bask in their profound wisdom at having chosen well.
“May all the wives bask in their profound wisdom at having chosen well”.
Hear hear!
Where I come from, men choose and women decide. Y’all must have married on Sadie Hawkins Day.
ec,
I chased her until she caught me…according to her eyelash bating, coy smiling, swaying hip statement many years later.
She actually whistled at me on Bourbon street (she was in a pack I was alone) and the next thing I knew I had a kid and a 30 year mortgage.
Get the number of that truck!
Women can flirt, entice, hint, invite, whatever, but they do not choose. Well, they didn’t back in the day when men were men.
Old Phil said he was dancing with a pretty girl in Thailand. A woman asked him if he liked gitoys. He said no. She told him a decent girl would not be so forward as a tranny.
May all the wives bask in their profound wisdom at having decided well. Just for you, ec.
It’s true though, if she decided to eat ice cream until she weighed 250, I would choose to send her to a fat farm.
Buy a little silver every week. Dollar cost average. Sell only if you need the fiat currency for daily expenses. (((They))) will not stop printing fiat until the system collapses.
Buy something like Sprott PSLV or SLV, buy physical with the profits and sell shares if you need fiat.