Letter from Great Britain – 10-31-20

“The Financial Jigsaw” has been serialised here and now is replaced by this weekly “Letter from Great Britain.”

NOTEIf anyone would like an electronic copy of the complete book, I should be pleased to email a free PDF on request to: [email protected]. Also a hardcopy of the book, “The Financial Jigsaw” is available priced at £25 GBP plus P&P in A4, workbook format, bound with clear plastic covers, printed locally on demand.

I open this week with a nice picture of the high street in my home town, Bruton, (actually a village of 3,000 persons) where demand has spiked as people continue to ‘work from anywhere’ and with our main line station only one hour away from London.  “The Somerset town of Bruton has been identified as one of the most in-demand countryside living destinations in England, according to property experts.  Research carried out by Rightmove has found that searches for properties in rural areas, as people moved away from cities, have spiked and that the South Somerset town saw the second-biggest increase in interest over the last year.”

https://www.somersetlive.co.uk/news/somerset-news/somerset-town-second-most-demand-4627935

Boris Johnson’s new 3-Tier lockdown system is proving problematic.  In an attempt to keep everyone ‘safe’ whilst allowing the economy to hobble along, he has fallen between two horses.  And Johnson has indeed come a cropper. His attempt to foster public clarity through a new three-stage framework succeeded only in sowing more confusion. His dealings with the regions left Liverpool feeling cheated, Lancashire feeling bullied and Manchester angrily determined not to be “the canary in the coal mine” used to test the toxicity of the social and economic impacts of further tight restrictions. In the past week, territorial fissures and fault lines that have, if we are honest, existed for decades, cracked wide open.

            When Britain was first put in lockdown in March, Boris Johnson was explicit: the government would “follow the science”. A few months later, the talk was more of being guided by the science.  Now it not only appears that the government is becoming distrustful of “the experts” but the broader scientific base is itself fundamentally divided, with an increasing polarisation appearing between those who favour a focus on herd immunity, and those who suggest that this is dangerously flawed and instead favour tighter social restrictions.”

https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-confusion-the-prime-minister-cannot-keep-riding-two-horses-at-once

Here is a live example from Manchester; hospitality employees are not managing with the many difficult customers (they moved to Tier 3 by government diktat against their wishes):  “As we’ve moved into tier 2 and now tier 3, we have had to be alert to groups of more than one household turning up [and table service only].  Despite the rules, it’s patently obvious that we’re receiving parties of mixed households, unless communal living has really taken off in Manchester.  There is only so much we can do: I can’t ask to see their house keys, or quiz them on each other’s preferred breakfast cereal.

The rules are unsustainable and shouldn’t be our responsibility.  Then there’s making sure people are wearing their masks to keep each other and staff like me safe.  You’d think we were taking away people’s right to vote by asking them to pop a piece of cloth over their face while they nip to the toilet.  All of this would be bad enough, but to compound issues, management have decided that the maxim “the customer is always right” endures, despite staff going no further than enforcing government regulations.

When you eventually get everyone seated, you hope that the hard work is behind you. But then comes the shouting across the room to get your attention, and the eyes boring into your head as you finish up serving another customer. I’ve cried in work more than once because of the way a customer has treated me.”

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/25/restaurant-covid-customers-enforcing-rules

According to my Australian friend who is Editor and Publisher of BOOM Finance and Economics, the UK is in a serious, prolonged economic crisis which is unlikely to get any better soon.  And the Euro Area economy has suffered from two consecutive quarters of negative growth in GDP already this year. Meanwhile, America and China seem to be making good progress in repairing their economies. http://boomfinanceandeconomics.com/#/

The US and China represent almost 50 % of Global GDP so that is good news for the globe. However, the UK and Europe (especially France) are struggling to return to any economic growth and this is having huge effects on other nations.

Back in May, BOOM warned of mass global starvation stemming from broken supply chains. These breakdowns in supply are due to bizarre, excess Western governmental
reactions to a pandemic in which excess death rates have been generally no worse than in previous Influenza epidemics. In Nigeria, for example, we have food riots occurring:

Nigeria: Sharp increase in food prices caused by COVID-19 raises fear of hunger
Read more:

https://www.icrc.org/en/document/nigeria-sharp-increase-food-prices-caused-covid-19-raises-fear-hunger  and The BOOM Editorial from 17th MAY 2020 indicates that 400 MILLION MAY STARVE: https://boomfinanceandeconomics.wordpress.com/2020/05/16/boom-as-at-17th-may-2020/

In this linked video from Neil McCoy-Ward, he talks about the UK Economy. He discusses many topics that BOOM has written about extensively in BOOM Editorials: Fear, Mass Media Manipulation, The False Threat from Covid 19, Deflation, Rising Unemployment, Falling Taxation Revenues, Large Corporates versus SMEs, Increasing

Government Deficits, the trend towards more (and more) inequality, more Lockdowns, (despite all the evidence that points to this being a very poor policy option).

Video: Neil McCoy-Ward on UK Economy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLwwUG9M7Sc&feature=emb_logo

McCoy-Ward lives in the UK and, in general, agrees with BOOM about the prospects for the UK economy. BOOM feels that the leadership in the UK is extremely poor (and clearly manipulated by external, malevolent forces).  Thus, they agree that the UK economy is facing a prolonged recession, no V shaped, sharp and sustainable recovery. This is the result of decades of mismanagement at the highest levels, culminating in the election of The Greatest Fool — Boris Johnson as PM.

My own view is that UK unemployment could surge towards 10 – 20 % (worst case) next year.  Europe will stagger on as a basket case with flat or no GDP growth; but maybe not a full blown recession there because of intense central bank interventions.  However, the Chinese and US recoveries could be strong in comparison. They are already seeing this; have a look at the GDPNow Forecast for the US:  https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

BOOM’s two key leading indicators for the Chinese economy are still showing strong and stable economic growth there with a V shaped recovery clearly evident.  US AND CHINA STRONG ECONOMIC RECOVERY Read more: https://boomfinanceandeconomics.wordpress.com/2020/10/10/boom-as-at-11th-october-2020/

In the latest BOOM editorial, the author mentions a term that sums things up well in those nations that are failing to repair their economies — WHAT IS A KAKISTOCRACY?
A Kakistocracy is a system of government that is run by the worst, least qualified, and/or most unscrupulous citizens. The word was coined as early as the seventeenth century.

Leading on from these distressing circumstances; the Brits are suffering under a failing social security benefits system according to a new report this week.  The main benefit is called Universal Credit and is for all people of working age.  The eligibility criteria are clear:

  • On a low income or out of work.
  • Aged 18 or over (there are some exceptions if you’re 16 to 17)
  • Under State Pension age (or your partner is)
  • You and your partner have £16,000 or less in savings between you.
  • You live in the UK.

There are over 6 million people claiming this benefit at present which represents almost 20% of the workforce and is an indication of the extent of poverty in UK which is worsening as more lockdowns continue.

Under the new Job Support Scheme, for businesses and employees suffering the effects of lockdowns, there is provision of 2/3rds of wages to be paid and grants for the business itself.  This might well be less that what benefits would pay under Universal Credit and is an example of the mess that the government have created in our reduced circumstances: Read more from the report:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/oct/29/britons-support-for-welfare-benefits-at-highest-level-for-20-years-study

As I warned months ago, once the furlough scheme ends this month, all hell will break loose on the employment front.  Although researchers forecast around 10% unemployment, I am projecting more like 20% – depression level.  Here are some examples of ordinary Brits suffering under the yoke on unemployment caused by these ridiculous government regulations.  Hundreds of thousands of people in the UK have lost their jobs as the coronavirus pandemic pushes the rate of redundancies to record highs, and the number is expected to increase when the furlough scheme comes to an end this week. According to a new report, young people and those from ethnic minority backgrounds are disproportionately impacted by the redundancies, while many recent graduates are struggling to find employment:” Read about some individual experiences:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/29/you-cannot-sleep-at-night-unemployed-and-furloughed

Compounding increasing unemployment, we now read that many companies are facing insolvency and bankruptcy in the coming winter months.  There’s no question now that Britain is approaching an economic depression of severe proportions although the MSM are underplaying this by describing it as a double-dip recession.  This is just playing with words in an effort to keep the people positive but no amount of soft-balling will change the facts.

“The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that 64% of businesses across all industries were at risk of insolvency last month, with 43% of companies running on less than six months’ cash reserves.  The latest “red flag alert” report for the previous quarter revealed that 557,000 businesses were under severe strain after government restrictions hit sales.  The government’s decision to lift protections that shielded directors from the laws that ban trading while insolvent was expected to result in mass insolvencies and redundancies.

            A combination of grim economic data, and very poor trading conditions, particularly in the most vulnerable sectors, such as hospitality, will take its toll and this is expected to feed through to next year’s first quarter, particularly when the government ends its high-profile corporate life-support measures.”

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/28/uk-facing-flood-of-bankruptcies

Looks like the Brits in Wales have finally lost it! “A video out of Wales shows a furious shopper in a branch of Tesco tearing away plastic sheeting used to cover “non-essential” goods while decrying a COVID lockdown that is robbing people of “basic human needs.”

As we highlighted yesterday, photos began emerging of bedding and other supermarket items deemed “non-essential” being covered with plastic sheeting to prevent people in Wales from buying them:” Read More:

https://summit.news/2020/10/24/video-furious-welshman-tears-down-sheeting-off-non-essential-goods-in-covid-lockdown-protest/

On a final note about the US election; Nigel Farage, the former ‘Ukip’ party leader, has appeared at a Donald Trump rally calling the president the “most resilient and brave” person he has ever met. Farage lauded Trump’s anti-establishment rhetoric and, in a veiled dig at Boris Johnson, he said Trump was “the only current leader in the free world who has the guts to stand up for the nation state, to fight for patriotism, to fight against globalism”.

Now that UK has left the EU, I will comment on relevant EU – UK events as they arise

It looks like Boris is waiting for the US election result before concluding Brexit:

“Ivan Rogers, who was the UK’s permanent representative in Brussels from 2013 to 2017, told the Observer that a view shared by ministers and officials he has talked to in recent weeks in several European capitals, is that Johnson is biding his time – and is much more likely to opt for no deal if his friend and Brexit supporter Donald Trump prevails over the Democratic challenger, Joe Biden.

Rogers said: “Several very senior sources in capitals have told me they believe Johnson will await clarity on the presidential election result before finally deciding whether to jump to ‘no deal’ with the EU, or to conclude that this is just too risky with Biden heading for the White House, and hence live with some highly suboptimal (for Johnson) skinny free-trade agreement.”

The former ambassador to the EU – who quit under Theresa May’s premiership because of disagreements over Brexit strategy – remains in regular contact with senior government figures in EU capitals. Rogers said that if Trump won he and others in Europe believed Johnson would think “history was going his way” with his right wing ally still in the White House. The prime minister would therefore be more likely to conclude he could strike a quick and substantial post-Brexit US-UK trade deal than if Biden emerged as president after the 3 November poll. By contrast, a Biden administration would prioritise rebuilding relations with the EU that have been damaged by Trump.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/24/johnson-will-wait-for-us-election-result-before-no-deal-brexit-decision

To be continued next week.

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Author: Austrian Peter

Peter J. Underwood is a retired international accountant and qualified humanistic counsellor living in Bruton, UK, with his wife, Yvonne. He pursued a career as an entrepreneur and business consultant, having founded several successful businesses in the UK and South Africa His latest Substack blog describes the African concept of Ubuntu - a system of localised community support using a gift economy model.

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Horseless Headsman
Horseless Headsman

It was nice to read something that was mostly not about US politics. Plus, I learned a useful new word – KAKISTOCRACY. The scope of the impending ‘correction’ or collapse sometimes boggles me.

Depressed Aussie
Depressed Aussie

I feel for the English patriots. Not only do they face off against a draconian power obsessed government but if the polls are to believed they also stand against public opinion which has obviously been carefully manipulated by the media campaign. There is hope however, In the left wing cesspool that is my home state towards the end of the lockdown it seemed a majority were ready to ignore the lockdowns and a clear majority wanted the premier to step down. Look to the mass anti lockdown protests in Germany. Spread the truth about this virus but do so slowly. You are messing with people’s belief systems if you go too hard on the facts they will dismiss it. Plant seeds of doubt in their minds and avoid coming across as a ‘conspiracy theorist’ at all costs. Let people find out about the great reset by themselves. Just throw them some clues and let them find truth behind the pandemic response.

rhs jr
rhs jr

The Powers That Should Not Be are conditioning the Sheeple (with tyranny and muzzles) to accept their poisonous vaccines; open borders; the replacement of all physical currencies with Rothschild e-money; and their manmade food shortage blamed on “global warming” and Trump’s CV-19 actions. Sorry Charlie, people are beginning to see through the government and MSM lies, which are cures worse than the disease; the unintended consequence will be the Oligarchs losing their heads instead of the Deplorables.

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