Guest Post by Steve Kirsch
An independent derivation of the VAERS URF using the CMS death data leads to a URF of 44.64 which then leads to a 388K excess death estimate.
My estimate of the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) at 41 was based on anaphylaxis rates reported in the Blumenthal paper published in JAMA.
I have argued that the anaphylaxis rate is an appropriate number to use to (under) estimate deaths because I believed that deaths would be less reported than anaphylaxis to VAERS for two reasons: 1) usually lacks the time proximity to vaccination, 2) the person seeing the death may not know the vaccination status of the victim and may not technically be required to report the death.
Some people have quibbled with that assumption, including my friend Professor John Ioannidis, who argued that there is no evidence that that is true and it could be the other way around. It’s a fair point and I told John it’s only an estimate and I’m happy to modify it when we have more data.
That day has arrived courtesy of Wayne at VAERS Analysis.
Wayne did a URF computation using death data in CMS. This overcomes any objections about the validity of using anaphylaxis rates as a proxy for death rates.
The VAERS URF he computed was 44.64.
This seems reasonable to me. It’s really not far from the 41 I calculated.
Also, Wayne subsequently looked at the numbers for 9 states. The average value was 40, not far from the 41 I calculated from anaphylaxis.
I had two team members (Albert Benavides and Jessica Rose) double check his numbers. No mistake.
Now, let’s see what that means.
As of Dec 14, 2021, there are 9,136 deaths reported into VAERS for domestic deaths (if you are using OpenVAERS, flip the switch at the top to see the US only deaths). If we subtract out more than twice the total number of deaths reported in any previous year (to be super conservative about estimating background deaths):
So our new best estimate of the number of “excess deaths” caused by the vaccine is 388,000. Because there isn’t a plausible mechanism of excess death other than the vaccine (certainly our “always vigilant” CDC has never suggested an alternate cause), the process of elimination leads us to conclude the obvious: that these excess deaths were, in fact, caused by the vaccine.
This should really be a surprise to anyone paying attention to the clinical trials.
For example, in the Pfizer trial, you were much more likely to die if you got the vaccine than if you got the placebo. They simply forgot to mention that in the abstract of the paper (and they were incapable of accurately counting the number of deaths in each group as well). In short, the vaccine is a killing machine.
As the clinical trial showed, it was more likely to kill you than to save you. America still refuses to actually acknowledge that fact.
388,000 dead Americans is simply stunning
Today, our best estimate of vaccine fatalities using the VAERS data is that the US Government is responsible for killing 388,000 formerly healthy Americans. For no reason or societal benefit. Under the guise of saving them.
And we’re not done yet. Those kids with myocarditis? Half of them could die in 5 years. We just don’t know. Prion diseases… we don’t know. Autoimmune diseases… we don’t know. Reproductive issues… unknown. Original antigenic sin? Possibly. You get the idea.
By contrast, the Vietnam War was a long, deadly struggle that took place from 1954 to 1975 between North Vietnam and South Vietnam. The U.S. National Archives shows that 58,220 U.S. soldiers perished over the 21 years. Here, we’ve killed more than 6 times as many people in a fraction of the time… just 11 months.
No one in mainstream media will dare talk about this. They won’t even ask the question. Not a single reporter.
Nobody in Congress will discuss it either. I tried to bring this information to the attention of Congressional staff, but they have ignored my requests.
Of course the FDA and CDC have no comment other than they “disagree” with me. They won’t say why. Wow. We have a discrepancy of 388,000 Americans dead and they won’t even say why I got it wrong.
I’m guessing that they can’t say why because I used their numbers (they maintain VAERS and CMS) and their methodology and there were no math errors. So they have to go with the “hand waving” argument that “we disagree” since they can’t go with facts, evidence, data, or methodology errors.
As for all the bogus arguments about VAERS and causality that are used by the “so-called fact-checkers” to attack my work, I thoroughly dismantle those in my 63-page article. That is why none of the people at the FDA or CDC are willing to talk on the record to me: because I know how to dismantle their bogus excuses for looking the other way. They won’t talk to any of my associates either. They just don’t want to hear it.
Let me know in the comments if you find an error.
Finally, I know some of you are still unconvinced by all the data including the stunning athlete data. I’m OK with that. I just have one request. Please consider sharing this article with your social network before you get your booster. OK?
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That would be a death per every 1000 americans. Doubt that figure is accurate. Dont get me wrong, the shots gonna get thise that take it.
That’s about the rate we saw at the beginning, before all the death statistics got deep sixed by the Establishment…
Agree. Kirsch’s “under-reported” guesstimate for entries into VAERS is way too much guesswork. Just as all-cause mortality is too crude to confirm the specific assertion that 800,000 Americans have died “of covid” in any meaningful sense. All cause mortality does, IMO, show that a lot of Americans have died of Covid (many of them within a couple years of when they would have died of old age anyway), but whether the proper number is 500,000 or 800,000 or even a figure higher than 800,000 will never be known with certainty. Some of the “800,000” were probably killed by the vaccines, and some, like John Prine, were knocking on death’s door anyway. Even the CDC once admitted that perhaps 25% of the official death toll should probably not be counted as Covid deaths.
People do not understand sampling if they thing you can get a reliable number like 800,000. It is amazing what can get published now. How do you even lock down the variance to tell what is noise to signal? I saw a guy claiming to be a statistician hyped over at Unz that had written a book on scientific study of the supernatural and paranormal. My curiosity got the best of me so I bought the ebook. I think he may genuinely too stupid to understand all of his experimental flaws, but I also know he is a shyster now. It was just another flavor of Luciferianism dressed up with scientistry. Which explains the promotion and grants and collaborations.
The death rate from all causes is up 17% this year compared to the last six years.
17%!!!
That is terrifying.
2020 was pre “vaccine” but full Covid panic and death rates were the same as years past.
2021 is post “vaccine”
Something has killed 17% more people than anything else the past 5 years.
I wonder what that is?
Actually, deaths inn2020 were up around 400,000. Up about the same in 2021.
Good to see posting Loop. I thought you’d been dragged off to the Covid gulag by now. Good job keeping your head down.
Soy milk in combination with high fructose corn syrup and seed oils , bruh. That shit is lethal.
At one point in August 2020 the CDC had 6% of the total at that time as having died of COV19 exclusively.
Hmmm… Ballpark average deaths per thousand is somewhere around 9 I think. I did not see a start date on the VAERS data, so we could assume (I know, I know) .5 deaths per per thousand per year. Since it is nearly two years of data. So a bump from 9.0 to 9.5? I can see that sneaking under the radar with all the Covid death number inflation going on. Of course it’s all bullshit, so who knows.
Has anyone nailed down that 6 million number yet?
7500 Americans die every, so 7.5 of them is wrong?
The daily average is close 8,000 a day but why quibble.
Moderna people don’t want to attend an in person conference? Gee, why not? Most of the attendees will probably be shot up with one of their or another version of the “safe and effective” shots. Hmmm.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-14/dimon-s-disdain-of-zoom-tested-as-conference-attendees-back-out
No, they don’t want to traverse in ShanFranShitzgo,:
The truth does not exist.
my name says it all, we need to collapse to rebuild-period
It does. People just look away as if it doesn’t.
And those deaths are mostly due to banning the use of Ivermectin, with the chief researcher paid $40 million by Gates to change his favorable conclusions…
They effectively banned discussion of ANY treatments other than the vaccines (and Remdesivir, which NIH was involved in creating). Vitamin D, HCQ, Quercetin, zinc, fluvoxamine, etc.
Whatever the number truly is I think this is just the beginning. Time to put the tin foil hat on. Why are they trying to mandate that all US citizens (which are mostly white) get the jab. In the meantime the illegal aliens saunter across the border and head in every direction. It would be so easy to jab them before they put them on the bus or plane. If I remember right, Deagle, a couple years back projected that the US population would decline from 325 million today to about 100 million by 2025. You make the conclusion.
The frog was about to notice he was boiling on the immigration scams. Lock everyone down while they flood the country could speed things up before they can react. I don’t know anything. The financial collapse is the ball to not take the eyes off of. Recent immigration is easy to reverse, but the rooted immigrants take more effort.
they also give ivermectin on a routine basis to immigrants from certain areas of the world including central america 4 diseases that are common in those areas–
Five years from now there will be a lot less traffic. People might notice excess deaths when there is no traffic or lines at the post office. Or not……
Real estate deals!!!!!!!!
BL- I noticed a lot less traffic when the stay at home orders were “mandated” and most people but me stayed home in early 2020. Sometimes, I was the only car on the road. It was peaceful and eerie at the same time. Will keep an eye out to see if it happens again without the mandates.
Definitely will not be noticed. It will be explained as natural causes from long-Covid caused by unvaxt.
many,many moons ago someone here posted an antidote to the clot shot–
do any of you have a link to it?
I’ve seen it on other sites as well. You might wanna try a search for “mitigation measures for covid vaccine.” Don’t use G00gle though, use duckduckgo.
I hope this helps somebody spread it far and wide. My 49 year old neighbour a bear of a man died suddenly yesterday. He should have done this God Rest his Soul
Sumarin, it is in pine needle tea. White pine, especially. (NEVER yew!)
I first heard of it from renseradio (Jeff Rense) who had Judy Mikovitz on.
NAC is helpful too. Berberine. More antioxidants at orwell.city (top of page)/
I have used wormwood and the above to stop covid in two friends. Both 90% better in under three days. (I also gave them d3, Quercetin, Zinc, Lysine, and Aronia Berry.)
Serrapeptase also, flash posted that and other options; mark confirmed
Ok, I am a bit of a math wiz. I pulled up the source data that this author is using. The key to his stats is that 52,000 out of 27 million people and 65 and over died within two weeks of receiving the shot. And blames the shot, of course.
Well, if we think about it, that means that 26,000 died in a week, or the equivalent of 1.3 million people a year. Now, that is about 5% of the 27 million, who are over 65. Or 1 out of twenty. Given the life expectancy is around 80 years for someone around 65, well, gee, we would expect that 5% or more of all people over 65 would die each year, pretty evenly extrapolated day to day, week to week., for a total of around 1.3 million each year. And gee, that is EXACTLY what the data he uses showed. Old people die. Amazing, isn’t it?
But this author, makes the absurd assumption that all those 52 thousand deaths were actually anaphylaxis related. Nope, no way they are just the number of old people that die every day from any cohort. Nope. They all died from anaphylaxis. Yes indeed.
Seriously, out of 27 million old folks, 52 thousand deaths would occur in just about any two week period you want to choose. Claiming that they died from the shot is absolutely insane. In other words, in any two week period, shot or no shot, 52,000 of them are going to die.
He provides no data showing excess deaths. None.
Man, the narrative being driven is insane.
Were they in an Australian prison camp reading Solzhenitsyn?? Maybe that would work to put out the fake flu. Dear Lord, I had higher hopes for you. Sad.
Unfortunately you have been exposed to too much CO2 and not enough oxygen. You cannot refute my numbers, as they are irrefutable, so you pull some lame ass anti Oz comment, not knowing what you are talking about, as usual.
I had zero hope for you, and have not been disappointed.
llpoh
what is really going on over there?is it anywhere near as bad as it’s made out to be?
Just read something tonight.. since last Dec.. 2020.. to this Dec.. 2021.. Vaers reported 19,886 deaths in total..
Just doing some quick math.. if they only report 1% of all adverse effects, death is definitely one of them..
19,886 is 1% of 1,988,600 people.. This is after the Vaccines got going, This is Genocide. Its just sick.. Whats even more terrible is this is just the quiet deaths, Wait until the loud deaths hit, thats all the people running around with razor blades in their blood stream thinking they did a great job getting vaxxed. Prayers going out to you all.
Gee, so 2/3 of the deaths in the US are from the vaccine in 2020. The stupid it burns bright around here.
Basic maths: around 2.8 million a year die in the US. So, Einstein that you are, you think 2 million died from the vaccine in 2021. That would mean that 5 million died in 2021. That is some serious stupid right there. It is somewhere around 3.2 million dead in 2021, latest estimates.
How do you manage to feed yourself? Do you not have even the slightest ability to research, add, subtract?
The author seemingly has the same challenges. Maybe you are related.
Really, though, it is about as hard as getting an accurate vote count on election night.
gee its almost as that wasnt what was said, i aint a einstein, but almost 20k was the deaths not all reports are deaths as was said, death is definitely ONE of the AE as he or she said.
its easier to report deaths compared to non deadly adverse effects. if 20k is reported is only 1% then its true that 2mill could then be true, it does not mean its 2mill deaths its a hypothetical number, assumedly most of the deaths are reported, but not all which is why this report exist.
often science throw the ball too high and have higher numbers than what accrue, because its often better to have too high number than too low dealing with these kinds of events.
it was des 2020 to des 2021, not across the entire 2020 since the vaccine did not exist before the end of the year. not sure how you manage to get 2/3 of the deaths to become vaccine deaths in 2020.
maybe reading isnt your strong side.
This link has a table that shows death by year through 2020 in the US. Notice the very significant jump in deaths? Also, it cannot be blamed on the vax, can it, given when the vax rollout happened. Anyone who says Covid isn’t killing people is brain dead.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2778234#jvp210048t1
True, but look at the bright side – by pulling some deaths forward a year or two, we’re due a few years of lower-than-average deaths.
True. I have thought of that. But maybe those few hundred thousand souls didn’t want to be pulled forward. I myself would prefer not.
Anyone who does not highly discount US Government data needs to seriously rethink things-especially after all the lies and contradictions they have fed us the last two years. Same as saying it will never be easy to get an accurate view of what has and is happening. They are very good at hiding the truth.
I’m gonna inject myself into this shit show (and then promptly leave), and I’m gonna say something that will piss off both sides — not the first time I’ve done that — and then I will tell myself to “Go Fuck Myself”, in order to save you the effort. Here goes …
SHUT THE FUCK UP WITH ALL THESE NUMBERS!
Every goddamned number either side throws out is total meaningless bullshit. You can’t believe ANYTHING number related to Covid. Lies and bullshit is what you’re relying on. Fact! “Oh, no, Stucky! They are real!”. Ya’ll can kiss my Austrian ass if you actually believe that.
Have a nice evening, mates.
It’s a big lie – like the holocaust.
It is kind of a waste of time to play the “We know they are lying, they know we know they are lying, we know they know they know..” I am already confused myself game.
Hiya Stuck – it has been my experience that people pushing narratives do not want facts and data quoted.
MOST of the so called covid deaths have been proven,( and then of course deleted by the powers that be), to be false. They were saying people died OF covid when all that happened was some people that had other diseases or injuries were dying WITH covid. At any rate they lied to the world in the very beginning. And it continues..
make this sharable
It’s worthwhile examining how we have been led not to trust our own experiences and our own eyes unless the data gets massaged by scientists or statisticians first. We aren’t allowed to conclude from seeing video after video of people quaking on the floor or doing headers that the shots are harmful because, you know, that’s not scientific.
What if we used that approach to touching hot stoves? All of us would be badly scarred but still not sure of the cause.