Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,
This was supposed to be the year that things “got back to normal”, but here we are at the end of January and things have only gotten worse.
As we move forward into February and beyond, there are two key global shortages that we are going to want to keep a very close eye on.
One of them is the rapidly growing fertilizer shortage. A few days ago, the Wall Street Journal ominously warned that “high fertilizer prices are weighing on farmers across the developing world”…
From South America’s avocado, corn and coffee farms to Southeast Asia’s plantations of coconuts and oil palms, high fertilizer prices are weighing on farmers across the developing world, making it much costlier to cultivate and forcing many to cut back on production.
That means grocery bills could go up even more in 2022, following a year in which global food prices rose to decade highs. An uptick would exacerbate hunger—already acute in some parts of the world because of pandemic-linked job losses—and thwart efforts by politicians and central bankers to subdue inflation.
According to the International Fertilizer Development Center, exceedingly high fertilizer prices could result in a reduction of agricultural output in Africa alone “equivalent to the food needs of 100 million people”.
So this is a really, really big deal.
And this crisis is going to deeply affect us here in the United States too. The following comes from a recent piece authored by U.S. Senator Roger Marshall…
It’s no secret farmers are faced with a fertilizer crisis. Prices for phosphorus-based and potassium-based (potash) fertilizers have more than doubled in Kansas while Nitrogen-based fertilizers have more than quadrupled. Fertilizer is vital to feeding not only the country, but the world. It contains essential nutrients for plant life, and without it, American agricultural yields will quickly suffer as well as food prices in local grocery stores.
As I discussed the other day, these crazy prices for fertilizer are going to make it impossible for many U.S. farmers to profitably plant crops this year.
That means that a lot less food is going to be grown.
On the other side of the world, the North Korean government is asking their citizens to start creating “homemade” fertilizer from their own waste…
State-run media has also been encouraging people to make “homemade” manure, The Daily Beast reported. A source in North Hamgyong Province told Daily NK that residents had started “producing fertilizer from human waste” after authorities launched a 10-day drive to increase production.
Perhaps U.S. citizens should give this a try, because a lot of us are certainly full of crap.
The other major shortage that I want to highlight in this article is the ongoing computer chip shortage.
According to a report that was just put out by the Department of Commerce, chip inventories around the nation have become dangerously thin…
Today, the U.S. Department of Commerce released the results from the Risks in the Semiconductor Supply Chain Request for Information (RFI) issued in Sept. 2021. Key findings from the report provided data-driven information about the depths of the semiconductor shortage and underscored the need for the President’s proposed $52 billion in domestic semiconductor production.
The RFI showed that median inventory held by chips consumers (including automakers or medical device manufacturers, as examples) has fallen from 40 days in 2019 to less than 5 days in 2021. If a COVID outbreak, a natural disaster, or political instability disrupts a foreign semiconductor facility for even just a few weeks, it has the potential to shut down a manufacturing facility in the U.S., putting American workers and their families at risk.
At this point, computer chips used to produce automobiles and medical devices are particularly in short supply.
In a blog post, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimando explained that a lack of chips resulted in “$210 billion in lost revenue” for automakers in 2021…
“In 2021, auto prices drove one-third of all inflation, primarily because we don’t have enough chips,” Raimando wrote in her blogpost. “Automakers produced nearly 8 million fewer cars last year than expected, which some analysts believe resulted in more than $210 billion in lost revenue.”
If there is additional disruption to chip production this year, 2022 could easily be even worse.
Many may wonder why we just don’t plop down a bunch of factories and start pumping out more chips.
Unfortunately, it isn’t that easy. Chip factories take a very long time to build, and we are being warned that it could take “until 2023” before things return to normal…
But industry executives aren’t optimistic that the funding would help alleviate the crisis, the Washington Post reported. They argued federal funding could help build up the long-term supply of chips but wouldn’t help in the short term because chip factories take years to build.
Chip consumers that were surveyed by the department similarly estimated that shortages wouldn’t go away in the next six months, and some suggested it could take until 2023.
We should have never become so dependent on chip production in Asia.
Today, Taiwan accounts for a whopping 63 percent of all computer chip production in the world…
The majority of chip factories are currently based in Asia, which houses about 87% of the market share of semiconductor factories (with Taiwan alone accounting for some 63%), separate industry data indicates. The political climate in the region, and tensions between Taiwan and China, has come under renewed scrutiny as the shortage has exposed how much U.S. industry relies on these sources.
So what is going to happen to our economy if China invades Taiwan and our main supply of computer chips gets completely cut off?
I have been warning for years that military conflict with China is coming, and now we are closer than ever.
What is our economy going to look like if a Chinese invasion of Taiwan this year instantly puts us into a state of war with the Chinese?
How in the world will we even be able to function as a society?
You might want to start thinking about such questions, because what was once “unimaginable” threatens to become reality in 2022.
* * *
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Let them eat EV.
Anybody want one of these?
https://rivian.com/r1t
Nope.
These are going to be more valuable down the road….
Exactly right. Cows, horses and chickens produce great manure, something which farmers are trying to go back to now due to the chemical fertilizer shortage, and they’re finding far less supply than necessary.
Producing your own fertilizer for your own crops is the key. Going back to the decentralized model of combined (plant and animal) farming prevalent in the 19th and early 20th century should be the goal of everyone with the space to grow crops. Don’t rely on the grocery stores; rely on yourself.
Kissinger said, “Control food and you control people”. Don’t be controlled.
Oh, and also, the use of Night Soil (human waste as fertilizer) is a bit tricky. It must be well composted to be safe. Most of the Hep A outbreaks from Mexican produce are related to the use of Night Soil.
I wonder how many charging stations are out there in the high plains where these guys are playing around?
Both of these are good things and necessary to return to healthy social and economic practices, not to mention individual human dignity.
Only factory farms need synthetic fertilizer. An explosion of local farms making their own compost and growing what grows where they’re at solves this problem. And creates a ton of jobs.
Scarcity of chips means the end of ubiquitous consumer goods designed to keep you addicted to the metaverse and elective medical interventions. And in their place, an increase in demand for artisan goods. More jobs. More human dignity.
Anon. ain’t hitting on all 8 cylinders about who needs chemical fertilizer; bottom line: don’t ask for whom needs chemical fertilizer, if you eat real food, you do (per se). The price to farmers/ranchers went up 250% yoy; either consumers will eat less or pay more, no shit, Sherlock. Congress just gave $52B for computer Chips; just gave $1B to NIH to study long haul Covid; Congress gave Fertilizer production a Bronx Cheer; and FJB just gave farmers/ranchers advice to retrain, I am not joking!!! I have a reply for FJB: Eat computer chips you stupid SOB.
RHS JR
You are in Agribusiness. The least efficient and most poisonous form of food production known.
The food you grow is not real and you are by the act of being in agribusiness the biggest welfare cheat in the country. You need to eat those chips and pound sand.
Good.
They deliberately industrialized a natural process, drove small family farmers out of business with their get big or get out policies, poisoned the soils, polluted the watersheds, turned humane practices into heinous and brutal abattoirs, ruined the health of 75% of the population, made 90% completely dependent upon others to provide the basic necessities of life, and have, in general, ruined the everything with their programs and policies just so they can enjoy ripe raspberries in January.
No more fertilizer?
Great.
Folks it is well past time to return to the way we have lived for virtually all of human existence by providing for ourselves or trading with others for the essentials in life, not sitting around in McMansions or tenements waiting for our daily bread to be delivered to us like baby birds.
Bud, you have a plethora of problems you need to be working on solving rather than fucking with me. I’m done reading your ignorant shit.
I didn’t start this. You butted into something that didn’t concern you. Fix your memory and get a grip on your ego.
rhs
I eat real food. Mostly grown by a local farmer who practices organic no-till urban land reclaimation. I barter raw A2 milk to him. Factory food is counterfeit food.
Bottom line: I won’t eat the cost because I’ve been intentionally refusing to participate in the factory food swindle for years.
Good for you; I hope millions more Americans make the switch this year.
Well let’s see. While I like using organic fertilizers from a company like Espoma, I find it much easier (and cheaper) just go get some shit from the farms in the area. I have access to horse shit, cow shit, sheep/goat shit, and poultry shit. Much like fertilizers bought in a store, each type of shit has different values of N-P-K and some are “hotter” than others. Who would have thought shit would have become such an important staple!
As for chips…fuck it. Anyone who has prepped for off-grid living tries to be as simple as possible. Some of us go as far as to protect any sensitive electronics with Faraday cages, so even if an EMP hits, we won’t have a need to replace anything.
How in the world will we even be able to function as a society? Just fine!
The 74 Ford 2000 tractor dont care about EMP’s LOL Could even potential run on wood gasification 😉
Good.
They deliberately industrialized a natural process, drove small family farmers out of business with their get big or get out policies, poisoned the soils, polluted the watersheds, turned humane practices into heinous and brutal abattoirs, ruined the health of 75% of the population, made 90% completely dependent upon others to provide the basic necessities of life, and have, in general, ruined the everything with their programs and policies just so they can enjoy ripe raspberries in January.
No more fertilizer?
Great.
Folks it is well past time to return to the way we have lived for virtually all of human existence by providing for ourselves or trading with others for the essentials in life, not sitting around in McMansions or tenements waiting for our daily bread to be delivered to us like baby birds.
The capital must flow.
To countless generations of religious thinkers, the fundamental maxim of Christian social ethics had seemed to be expressed in the words of St. Paul to Timothy: “Having food and raiment, let us be therewith content. For the love of money is the root of all evil.” Now, while, as always, the world battered at the gate, a new standard was raised within the citadel by its own defenders. The garrison had discovered that the invading host of economic appetites was, not an enemy, but an ally. Not sufficiency to the needs of daily life, but limitless increase and expansion, became the goal of the Christian’s efforts.
R. H. Tawney
“Freedom for the pike is death for the minnows.”
― R.H. Tawney
Amen. Old Haber didn’t really do us any favors.
All of a sudden this global economy isn’t such a great thing, nor just in time inventory systems, nor a military that requires more chips and batteries than steel and powder, nor the internet of things….We could go on and on. These shortages may present a gear shifting inconvenience and hardship for many, but much good will come of it.
Because society did not exist prior to the computer revolution or the advent of chemical fertilizers. My uncle farming in Sask in the ‘old’ days of the manure spreader stated that the soils were healthier and yields reasonable. Along comes the chemical guy say’n yields will increase by 10x’s and they did, but then so did the weeds. The chemical guy said no problem we have weed sprays. He said the yields went up, the costs went up and the soils started dying.
Today if I go back to the farm for a visit, the once rich black soils are now grey. You won’t find any livestock outside of a few ‘show’ horses that nobody rides. EVERYTHING is chemical based. Depending on what you are told to grow, you cannot even save seed. Canola/rape seed is infesting everywhere… its a weed they cannot get rid of now.
I too say good to the collapse of fertilizer and the next iteration of iPhones… neither is really helping that much unless you count destroying life as we know it. Turning people into zombies unable to think and where obesity is touted as a good thing. no thanks…
And what, I wonder, could threaten both of those things?
European Energy Crisis, Updated: Germans Shut Down Perfectly Good Nuclear Plants, Utilities Send Socks to Shivering Customers and Advise Eating Porridge
As we noted in September, natural gas prices are sky-high in Europe. Coal-burning power plants have been shut down and the windmills have not spun as fast as expected, which led to a drawdown of European natural gas stocks for electric power generation…
Just before midnight on Dec. 31, Germany switched off three more of its nuclear power plants [including one in Grohnde]. Once it had 17; now only three are left, and they too will be shut down at the end of the year. Soon Germany will produce no nuclear energy at all…..
As noted, this hurts European economies in various ways. Fertilizer plants and aluminum smelters have shut down because of too-costly natural gas feedstock, consumers are paying much more in utility bills…
The U.K. utility Ovo, which prides itself on providing all-renewable power, sent customers a link with advice for keeping warm whilst turning down their thermostats this winter. These suggestions included cuddling your pets, eating hot porridge, cleaning the house, having a hula hoop contest, doing star jumps (jumping jacks), and leaving the oven open after you are done baking. I leave to your imagination how this advice was received by the British public. In lieu of affordable electricity, the utility company E.ON which shut down one those German nuclear power plants sent out 30,000 pairs of socks to encourage people to get by with less power and heat.
You couldn’t make this stuff up.
The chaos that occurred in many countries during the Arab Spring was caused by food shortages. Looks like we are in for a few revolutions this summer in the 3rd world.
Regarding the chip shortage, maybe if our refrigerators didn’t need to connect to the internet and our washing machines didn’t have so many digital settings that you need an industrial engineering degree to figure out how to wash your shirt, we wouldn’t have a chip shortage. Just sayin’
Oh its too hard to make computer chips! It takes a long time to do them. Total bs! If it was made a priority and fast tracked it could be done in much less time. It does not happen because our overlords do not want us to have cars (new goal of zero traffic fatalities) or to have food. Why? As another poster said on a different thread they are trying to kill us! Get it? If you view their actions through this prism everything makes perfect sense. They want us dead! Am I overreacting??? How do you explain Brandon mandating no unvaxed truckers form Mexico/Canada being allowed to cross into US when we already have shortages!!! My opinion, I could be wrong(pray every day that I am).
Mr TLate, regarding TPTB wanting us Goy dead, consider that is now visa-versa (tit for tat) : kill shots “For The Children” crossed the line. Their own god demands an eye for an eye. Jesus said whoever harms one of these, better for him that a millstone be hung around his neck and he be tossed in the sea.
For the (apparently way too many) delusional eco-loons out there. Modern, ‘industrial’ agriculture (and all the other ‘industrial’, ‘chemical based’ industries that support and facilitate it) doesn’t just feed ‘you’, it feeds the world. (North America/Canada’s farms essentially feed the majority of the rest of the world).
The absolute pinnacle of pre-industrial agriculture was in the late medieval period (after centuries of development, innovations and improvements with a widespread, robust and perfected infrastructure, supply and support system). To give you some idea of the ‘carrying capacity’ that allowed, The UK (current population circa 70 million) at the time had a population of circa 2 million (not exceeded until post industrial revolution). Now consider what that would mean around the world.
Yes, ‘you’ can grow quite a lot of what you ‘personally’ eat (if you’re lucky enough to have the land, climate and time – hint: pre-industrial agriculture the absolute majority of people spent back-breaking hours dedicated to growing just enough food to survive … hopefully. Your ‘hobby’ to top-up the staples you ‘pretend not to’ buy would become a never-ending toil to supply a fraction of what you need. Oh and since everybody else would have to do the same, all those other ‘essentials’ you’ll need … you’ll have to provide too). The fact that almost everybody you know would die (and probably you would too) is apparently not an issue for you.
Low populations, famine, starvation … all were simply a normal part of life around the globe for aeons. And you people ‘want it back’?!?
The fact that you have time, a nice comfortable indoor job, all the tech you want, health and wealth … is ‘all’ due to farmers. ‘Modern life’ in its entirety is based entirely on agriculture, so ‘thank a farmer’!
(You’re like gucci champagne socialists complaining about globalisation on their iPhones, wearing your ‘hemp based’ clothing … shipped from half a world away. Uninformed, delusional, single-issue fanatic hypocrites).
(and no, big-business ‘suits’ from nice, safe, air-conditioned metropolitan areas buying up/taking over agriculture is another, entirely separate, thing all together, and you wont find a real farmer who doesn’t hate it to their very soul).
This ‘crisis’ is (like all the others) entirely manufactured. There isn’t some ‘new’, sudden shortage of gas, there is a no fertilizer or food shortage, there is a politically motivated, and incompetence based, … financial problem. There is as much fertilizer and food, but farmers cannot charge the ‘going rate’ and thus will face destruction and we all will face the consequences.