Guest Post by Paul Craig Roberts
I suspect the Kremlin has concluded that the limited intervention in Ukraine was a mistake. I don’t mean that the Kremlin will fail in its effort to drive all Ukrainian military units out of Donbass. The mistake the Kremlin made was in thinking that the military intervention could be limited.
The US and NATO are now involved in the conflict. Ukraine is being supplied with heavy weapons and with training in their use. Washington has now arranged to send missiles capable of hitting Russian territory. Clearly, there is nothing limited about the conflict.
The dilemma for Russia is that by confining its military operations to the Donbass region in east Ukraine, Western weapons are accumulating in west Ukraine where it is possible to raise an army to replace the one the Russians are destroying in Donbass. Whereas the Kremlin will succeed in liberating Donbass, it will fail in its goal to demilitarize Ukraine and turn Ukraine into a neutral state unless the intervention is expanded to all of Ukraine.
Additionally, the conflict has also expanded by the request of neutral Finland and Sweden to join NATO. The addition of Finland to NATO would greatly expand the presence of NATO on Russia’s borders, which the intervention in Ukraine intended to prevent.
The Kremlin warned that countries that intervene in the conflict would be treated as combatants, but has failed to take any action. The Russian threat is so disregarded that even militarily insignificant Denmark openly sends weapons to Ukraine. The consequence will be more intervention by the US and NATO.
A dangerous situation has been created by the Kremlin’s declaration of red lines that it does not enforce. Delayed and limited Russian responses to Washington’s provocations are the reason for the present conflict, and delayed and limited responses are the reason the present conflict is likely to spin out of control.
It was obvious that the Kremlin needed a quick and total conquest of Ukraine to prevent the expansion of the war by Western intervention and to intimidate non-NATO Europe from abandoning neutrality. Instead, the limited Russian action has given Washington months to widen the conflict and to keep the conflict going after Ukraine’s defeat in Donbass. Western propaganda has even succeeded in convincing the Western populations that Ukraine is winning the war.
The Kremlin, it seems, is unable to comprehend that there is no peaceful or diplomatic solution. It was the Kremlin’s false hope for the delusional Minsk Agreement that gave Washington 8 years in which to train and equip a Ukrainian force to retake the Donbass republics. The entire conflict could have been avoided if the Kremlin had accepted the request of Donbass to be reunited with Russia like Crimea. This strategic error by the Kremlin followed a larger and earlier error when the Kremlin stood aside and permitted Washington’s overthrow of the Ukrainian government and installation of a puppet regime hostile to Russia.
I admire the Kremlin’s restraint and disinclination to resort to violence. The question is whether this behavior encourages Washington to move more aggressively with the Wolfowitz doctrine against countries that are obstacles to Washington’s hegemony.
Russia can again sit on her hands, as she did during the previous 8 years, while Washington raises and trains yet another Ukrainian army, or she can deliver a quick knockout blow to Ukraine, replace the government, and hunt down and terminate all Nazi and CIA elements, or she can call it quits. Otherwise, the chances are high that increasing Western intervention will spin the conflict out of control.
The Kremlin sees this itself and warns of the prospect of nuclear war, but does not take the necessary action to foreclose this prospect.
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Great news everyone!
We may be about to find out whether nuclear weapons are a thing or not. And if there’s no nuclear exchange forthcoming, we may all be eligible for a refund.
Happy days.
If the U.S. is sending all these weapons, who are they sending them to? Most of the Ukrainian military has been destroyed along with their weapons depots and their airfields. They really don’t have a military to speak of and haven’t had one for some time now. So who are all these weapons really going to? The answer must be that NATO is actually sending troops from various NATO countries into Ukraine to conduct combat operations against Russia and they have been doing so since the beginning. It takes people with knowhow to operate those weapons systems and equipment that are supposedly being sent and it sure the hell isn’t the conscripts that Ukraine has been basically kidnapping off the street to replenish their ranks that could do it.
This whole thing is so weird.
Poor PCR. His opinion was always a tad strident but entertaining for a while. It’s getting tired, Forgive my ‘insouciance’.
He’s been banging that drum about Russia not going for the killshot from the beginning. He’s speaks with authority that Russia is either timid, naive, or just unable to end this on his schedule. He is clearly no military analyst. He has confused the Russian military strategy with an American model. The information available to the readers here at TBP is available to him as well but he doesn’t refute any of it or even include it in writing as points to consider.
PCR was better (sort of) on financial matters. The hope of the US to bleed Russia financially has already cost the US 53 Billion that it doesn’t have is also not mentioned.
I suspect that he is now just pumping out articles for pay. Hey, a man’s gotta pay the bills and all but it is showing in his work.
Cheers from the Great White North Gulag
Yeah, he’s tone deaf.
Full spectrum warfare is incredibly complex, maybe someone should put it in economic terms for him, so he can understand all of the variables he isn’t considering.
$53 billion that the US doesn’t have being spent so the US can continue to spend $100 billion a month that it doesn’t have. Here is a fact you are missing, THE US IS BANKRUPT… This isolation of Russia is being done so the bankers can continue to create fake $s and rule the world with the printing press. This all ends when the world stops using the $. WE ARE A NATION OF FOOLS! EVERY NATION THAT DUMPS THE $ PAYMENT SYSTEM IS OUE ENEMY. WAKE THE FUCK UP!!!
Poor PCR. He’s become the hanger on at the hotel lounge remembering when he mattered in political circles and hoping someone will buy him a drink.
I remember one of the first responses of the “west” was to offer Zelensky a ride out of Ukraine . Had he done that , what then would the “west” have done ? Two meetings (between Russia and Ukraine) were held near the Belarus border , and two in Turkey to the best of my recollection . Not being a fuckin mind reader , my only response to this posted commentary would be that perhaps Russia does not want all of Ukraine and never said they did , nor could they give two flying fucks at a rolling donut what the rest of the world nor the author thinks they should do . As best as I can tell Russia is doing exactly what they said were going to do prior to starting their special military operation in Ukraine , and had in fact been quite clear in their demands and intentions for months prior to sending forces into the country . The clusterfuckery in Ukraine is all due to Uncle Sugar . Ukraine is definitely a “fixer upper” now . They must be taking breaks as all videos show crops in the fields planted and near knee high , albeit with a few craters and burnt out machines of war , combat farming . Who knows ? I wouldn’t even speculate at this point .
The Ukies can raise an army? Just like that? Out of thin air???
You, sir, are a complete fucking moran. Worse, you are a dangerous moran because you have a platform whereby you use your bullshit to deceive many. Rot in hell you sonofabitch.
Oh, and while rotting in hell, maybe you can watch Gonzolo’s video about this supposed army coming to rescue country 404 ….. an army which only exists in the minds of hopey-dopey retards like you.
Holly Heck, “Stucky.” And all this time I have just assumed you were a GUY! But with this sort of comment I now wonder if you were born with a PUSSY and not a, well you know…
Oh, I’m a dude, fer sure. A big dude at that.
The USA!USA!USA! is sending just four (!!!!) of those multiple rocket launchers to 404. It’s complex system requiring significant training. So, are we sending our troops there? Cuz sure as fuck this new package of shit materialized out of thin air, so you know the Ukies don’t know how to operate it. Not to mention about one third of the equipment gets destroyed the minute it arrives in 404, and another third are destroyed the first time it is used. But, mostly, just four rocket launchers can’t accomplish jack shit!
We’re also sending 4 Predator drones. This system requires about 100 highly trained people to operate. Where da fuk are they coming from. Not to mention the Russkies have THE best anti-aircraft systems on the planet. Those drones, if used, will last but just a few minutes, on their first mission.
Four of this. Four of that. What it means is that Dementia is just mailing it in. Doing this stoopid shit is just done for appearance; “Look, we’re doing SOMETHING!!” …. even if that something doesn’t amount to a hill of beans … meaning, our sending of weapons to 404 will have ZERO effect on the ultimate outcome. A Russian victory.
So, PCR advances this crapola about some mythical army being raised. hahaha Pure delusion. So, I’m not sure why 3 people disagreed. PCR is just a very terrible military analyst. One of the worst. But, if people want to lick his nutsack, I suppose I should just shake my head and move on.
Everyone is entitled to a shitty morning. Even you. Never mind then.
Ok. I’ve got some time now. I was in the middle of something and couldn’t talk.
Look, Stucky. You are entertaining and occasionally crazy. I just ignore the crazy stuff. But I like PCR’s work because it is professional, even if I don’t always agree with him. I give your stuff the same courtesy, by the way as I do with all the writers to this site. Your comments this morning were over the top. You might apologize, and we’ll forget it. And if you don’t apologize then we will forget it – too. But everyone will know what sort of a person you are, really, there on display. Just be fair with everyone is all I’m asking. Cheers.
This might surprise you … I have a couple PCR books on my shelf! I said he is a terrible “MILITARY” analyst.
And no way in hell am I apologizing for jumping all over his ass. Because …. I’m an asshole. But people ALREADY know that about me.
Sheesh, Stucky. I apologize. It was just a joke. With the free-hand you take with the insults to so very many you comment about, I really did not think you had so soft a head. I was JUST JOKING! My Bad. Sorry.
We’re good …no apologies necessary. A few fuck youz and suck my ballz ain’t no big thing ’round these parts.
Actually, it’s not true that Russia didn’t do anything. It told hostile countries to pay for gas and oil in rubles, now creating a Petro-ruble. The ruble is now stronger than before the war started. In affect, Russia is now getting paid to fight by the countries that are hostile to Russia.
Ukraine is soon to be a land locked country, and shortly thereafter not a country at all. Hope all those pesky bio-labs have been cleansed…
So, they’re like American conservatives and voting?
Nothing President Putin does is a mistake; he knows what he is doing.
4d chess lol
Pundits pontificate and the rest of us just throw shit at a wall.
Similar results.
Yawn.
Tell us a few more times how this could spiral into full Global Thermonuclear War, and only Russia is failing to prevent that.
What was it again about how many people are required to tango?
Russia is winning. Why risk a nuclear war?
I don’t agree with too much that PCR has said about this topic so far.
On thing I wonder about is that Puttie didn’t revel too much inside info about the biolabs and I haven’t seen shit about the NATO people that were holed up and then surrendered from Mariupol’s Azovstal steel mill either. This information is being held back for leverage later or it might just be that Puttie really is a secret one worlder as has been speculated. Why else would you not parade out the NATO/foreign advisors and military people that were there involved in all this?
I believe it is in Putin’s character to keep his enemies guessing about what he knows, who he is holding captive and what he can prove about Hunter’s corrupt business dealings.
I believe he has the evidence in hand and will produce it only on a world stage.