Doomsday Approaches

Guest Post by The Zman

The shadow that has hung over the Ukraine war is the fear that it could lead to a direct clash between Washington and Moscow. Given that both sides have large arsenals of nuclear weapons, conflict could lead to Armageddon. Compounding things is the fact that Biden cannot stop talking about nuclear war. Given his mental condition, this suggests that he is often in earshot of the decision makers, who may be seriously discussing the possible use of nuclear weapons.

The dynamic of the war thus far has been Washington poking Moscow hoping for a response, which it can use to justify escalation. First, they said that they would not supply Ukraine with Western weapons, then they sent Western weapons. Then it was long range guided missiles. Now we see modern tanks being prepped, with discussions about F-16 fighter jets on the agenda. All of these weapons transfers are intended to provoke a response from Moscow.

The proof of that is the fact that none of these systems can make a difference on the battlefield for a number of reasons. The biggest reason is that the West has designed its weapons to be used in combined arms warfare. Alone, these weapons are not terribly useful and may even be a hinderance to the Ukrainians. The M777 howitzer, for example, is known for being maintenance heavy. Giving the Ukrainians these weapons just adds to their onerous sustainment burden.

Of course, the “cry out in pain as you strike” tactic is the regime default. This is used domestically and internationally. It goes back a long time. In his ongoing criticism of Washington with regards to the war in Ukraine, Douglas Macgregor likes to remind people that the Roosevelt administration did everything it could to bait the Japanese into launching an attack on American assets. They needed a reason to get into the war and that was viewed as the best avenue.

When you combine the psychological instability of the people running the war for the regime and the long history of provoking adversaries, the prospects of a nuclear holocaust start to look better or worse, depending upon your perspective. If the usual suspects stick to their usual patterns, it means they will keep provoking the Russians until they get the desired response. That desired response will justify some further provocation eventually leading to all out war.

The first question to answer here is what response from Russia would warrant a direct attack on Russia by NATO? The obvious answer is an attack on NATO. This is why the Poles rushed to the nearest microphone demanding war with Russia when the Ukrainian missile landed on Polish territory. The Polish president knew the plan and assumed it was go time. It turned out to be a Ukrainian missile, but the incident confirmed the thinking within the West.

Assuming the Kagan cult has concluded they need a Russian attack on a NATO country in order to launch their nuclear war, what would the West have to do in order to provoke such an attack by the Russians? That is turning out to be a tough question to answer, given what the West has done thus far. Russian people have been attacked in NATO countries like Estonia. Russian assets have been seized. The West even engineered the assassination of Alexander Dugan’s daughter.

Over the last year, the West has done a number of things that would justify a response, but so far the Russians have been careful to avoid the trap. The closest they have come to a direct retaliation was the missile barrage after the Brits set off the truck bomb on the Kerch Bridge in the Crimea. Given that the missile attacks on the Ukrainian power grid have continued, that may have been a coincidence. The missile barrage would have required advanced planning.

The fact is time is on Russia’s side and they know it. Every day this war goes on drains the West of vital resources. The Pentagon is already making noises about the Ukraine war harming its ability to deal with China. The war has also exposed the fact that Europe has let its militaries and arms production go to seed. Germany, France and Britain no longer have a military for all practical purposes. It will take them years to fix the problems, even if they find the will to do so.

If the Russian have a very high tolerance for provocation, then the question flips around to the other side. What limit is there in Washington? Where is the line that the people running policy in the Biden will not cross? Given that regime players have been gleefully talking about “de-colonizing Russia” for the last year, it is hard to imagine a red line that they would not dare cross. If you are bragging about your plans to regime change Russia, you probably have no red lines.

Now, there is another angle here. This could all be the result of a bluff that has badly backfired on Washington. The initial taunts before the war were not intended to bait the Russians into launching their operation, but were a bluff. The subsequent economic sanctions and arms shipments were a further bluff. Washington was telling Moscow that they were in it for the long haul and would stuff Ukraine with arms. The hope was that Moscow would reconsider and retreat.

It is entirely possible that the Global American Empire is facing a catastrophe in Ukraine because the Russians called their bluff. It is also possible that the Russia misread the signals coming from the West. Given the mistakes they made early in the war, it could simply be the Russians read things the wrong way. They not only did not see it as a direct threat to intervene, they assumed it was just the usual hot air. One side was bluffing while the other side did not see the bluff.

Either way, once things got going the regime seems to have fallen into a form of the sunk cost fallacy.  They invest in new bluffing strategies in order to save the investment in the previous failed bluffing strategy. At this point, the Russians know the limitations of the West in terms of time and material. The huffing and puffing from the West is seen as a bluff, one that can easily be ignored. Will Washington accept this reality or pivot to some desperate action?

That last question could decide the fate of the world. At this point it is clear that the Ukrainians cannot win. The death toll is staggering. The Russians cannot be bluffed or bullied, so what does Washington do next? Do they try one last desperate attempt to provoke the Russians into something foolish? Are there any sane people left in Washington who can step in and stop this madness? The fate of the world may rest on the mental stability of the crazies who started the war.

Regardless, it appears that the neocon scheme to de-colonize Russia is reaching a denouement in the coming months. Ukraine is running out of men to throw into the meat grinder and the West is running out of machines. The war will end in 2023, but how it ends is the question. Can Washington find some way to strike a deal with Russia that Russia will accept? Have the Russians concluded that no deal can be made with such untrustworthy people? We will know soon.

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ursel doran
ursel doran

EXCELLENT article Sir.

A little speculation that has been rumbling around in my head since the beginning of the debacle there is this. Putin is a devout student of the book written in 400 B.C. and been in constant publication ever since, Sun Tzu = “The Art of War.”
I very much doubt that the neocon warmongers led by Victoria Nuland in the Biden administration have read it, much less have a grasp of its contents.
If you are interested, the only source for the little book these days is of course Amazon.

Stucky

Judo had a huge influence on Putin …. one of the best in Russia during his younger years.

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He even co-authored a book about Judo.

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Glock-N-Load

Isn’t Judo fake and gay? I thought Krav Maga was the real deal?

Let the world burn
Let the world burn

No, fake and gay is for you, not Judo.

Ken31
Ken31

I was friends with a competitive practicer of Judo. He was a bit nuts. One night we were out and this average height and frame kid whooped 5 guys at once all bigger than him. I had to break it up when he then tried to use my car to run them over (he was DD).

goat
goat

It can be downloaded legally from many sources.

august
august

I’d prefer a signed copy.

goat
goat

Surprises me the old coot is still alive.

Let the world burn
Let the world burn

The thing about the neocons is that they are lunatics. You can’t apply normal human psychology to them.

The Duke of New York
The Duke of New York

As William Cooper said over 40 years ago, the soft kill by disease and vaccines was one option, but there was always the option of nukes if that didn’t work to their satisfaction.

Aunt Acid
Aunt Acid

“Why not both?” said B3RG* commanders sipping cognac in the armory of the Swiss schloss.
If the Vaxxageddon don’t get ya Armaggedon will.

BL
BL

Amen Auntie……….

Anonymous
Anonymous

Biden senile Antichrist.

Anonymous
Anonymous

Have the Russians concluded that no deal can be made with such untrustworthy people?

I certainly hope so. If not, my respect for the intelligence of the Russian leaders will evaporate.

SerfsUp
SerfsUp

Superb article! Factors to consider: the Pentagon purge Obama started has never been completed in full b/c they had to keep competent officers on who know how to run systems. And the purged staff are still alive. So if the crazies go to launch, the centurions will escalate to stop them. Similar for NATO. It will not take much for both structures to splinter and collapse as Roman legions maneuver until control is re-established. Russia is well aware of this, having col in exactly that manner. It’s their end game. There is a deep hatred at play in the professional armed forces at what they’re seeing, and even now almost 80% of US troops still vote against the pedophiles.

Captain_Obviuos
Captain_Obviuos

Douglas Macgregor likes to remind people that the Roosevelt administration did everything it could to bait the Japanese into launching an attack on American assets. They needed a reason to get into the war and that was viewed as the best avenue.

As usual, the word “they” is often inserted as a blanket to protect the actual perpetrators, in this case “the Roosevelt administration.” This broad strategy eliminates the need of actually naming names.

Japan was subverted and subjugated by the banksters long before WWII. When Admiral Perry “opened up Japan to the West,” in 1853, he did not do it by trade and friendship: he threatened them, then left and came back in February, 1854, with seven ships, four sailing ships, three steamers, and 1,600 men, then dropped anchor 26 miles from the Japanese capital, Edo. The Japanese took this as a serious threat because Perry had told them that he planned to move up the bay toward Edo if demands were not met soon. He would also shell the city if necessary to get his point across.

Predating Perry’s excursion/invasion, no Europeans were allowed into Japan except the Dutch who were allowed to land a ship every year. The Dutch had enough political pull to make sure that no foreign nations except themselves were allowed to trade at all with Japan.

“The Dutch” were the East India Trading Company — who, as many of us here know, were anything but Dutch.

So you can see where Japan was already under Western control almost a century before their suicidal entry into WWII. Now think about the logic (or lack thereof) of such a move: is that something a rational country would do, throw their entire future at an enemy who could wipe them out if they so chose? We know that the Japanese are very big on ideas like honor and integrity, but they are also not stupid. Throwing a country’s youth into a pointless war is certainly not an honorable way for them to die.

Contrast this with the Ukrainian debacle today; is anything happening over there a natural course of events? Absolutely not — just like Japan in WWII, they have been bullied by the big boys. The same players who pull the strings of their puppets unseen are those who stage what we call history.

Which brings us back to Roosevelt. He did nothing; but it is he who his puppet masters decided would be the face of their unholy war against Christianity. (Again, the contrast to our current [p]resident is inescapable here.) Roosevelt followed the orders given him from his invisible cabal, like the Japanese, as they were both patsies, and just as important, not of the Chosen Tribe, who must never be exposed.

“They” needed a reason to get us into the war, because “they” will never fight. “They” are much too vital; “they” are the Chosen Ones, here to kill as many of us as possible in the name of “their” god, and sacrificing themselves therefore anathema.

It is truly incredible how one word — “they” — has so much power.

Doug grows potatoes
Doug grows potatoes

Well done captain.

Junious Ricardo Stanton

The crazies in D.C. London and Brussels think they can prolong the war and bring Russia to heel. I suspect they are in for a rude awakening. Ukraine is losing and will continue to lose given the setbacks they have already experienced, the infrastructural damage there, the corruption of the Ukrainian and US/EU governments, everything the West has tried against Russia thus far is not working. To make matters even worse for the West, the world is choosing sides and the US/NATO/Five Eyes/EU/Israel/Japan/South Korea axis is not attractive to the BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperative or the global south. Hopefully saner heads will prevail before things get really really bad. The question is where will these sane people come from? So don’t count on it.

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