Guest Post by Paul Craig Roberts
“Russia’s elites have no stomach for this fight and a deal is being worked out through backroom channels.”
https://www.theoccidentalobserver.net/2023/02/22/russia-has-no-strategy-for-winning-this-war/
As I have pointed out again and again and now again, Putin’s idiotic–indeed mindless–way of conducting war has destroyed the credibility of the Russian military. I am becoming convinced that the outcome of the nonsensical “limited military operation” will be either Russian surrender or nuclear war. By continuing to encourage provocation on top of provocation, Putin is backing himself into a corner where his only option is surrender or nuclear war. It is extraordinary that the Kremlin does not realize the danger in the picture of weakness and indecision that the Kremlin and Western propaganda have created.
If soon a Russian/Chinese mutual defense treaty is not announced and Putin does not use sufficient force to quickly end the conflict in Ukraine, unless Russia surrenders nuclear war is a certainty.
At the present time Victoria Nuland has more control over the conflict in Ukraine than does Putin. The President of Russia is vastly overshadowed by the neoconservative Undersecretary of State. She has already completely frustrated Putin’s “limited military operation” and turned it into a far wider war. She has succeeded in removing all the barriers to the expansion of the war that Biden proclaimed. Given that the Kremlin is all talk and no action, how long before there will be American/Nato troops assaulting Crimea?
It seems Putin Has Been Drawn Into a War that He Doesn’t Want to Fight.
The Rand Corporation is the Military/Security Complex’s Think Tank. The comments by its members confirm my reporting that Putin’s “No-war War” has destroyed the credibility of Russia’s military. Are Russian nationalists so politically weak that the pro-West Atlanticist Integrationists can prevent a Russian victory? https://www.rand.org/blog/2023/02/one-year-after-russias-invasion-of-ukraine.html
Putin’s failure to use the necessary force to subdue Ukraine has increased the confidence of US policymakers and will lead to more provocations of Russia. In effect, the neoconservatives have dismissed Putin as a capable opponent. There is danger in this conclusion.
China faces a similar situation. China won’t go to war because 100 US soldiers are sent to Taiwan. When next 1,000 arrive, that’s not enough to fight over either. The failure of Chinese reaction, other than angry words, will encourage more US intervention until nuclear weapons are deployed in Taiwan.
The reason the neoconservatives are so confident is that neither the Russian nor Chinese governments seem capable of acknowledging reality. Their intellectual failure to comprehend is boxing them in and leading to nuclear war.
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“Putin’s idiotic–indeed mindless–way of conducting war has destroyed the credibility of the Russian military.”
lol. Watcha been smokin there PCR?
Deep Shekel dick?
Vlad is about as dumb as a fox.
I don’t understand how PCR with his education and sources can’t get a tiny grasp of what Putin is doing.
He obviously has the superior fighting force and armament to conduct the operation in any way he sees fit.
This is not just about the Ukraine, when Putin makes his move he will never have to deal with the corruption and deceit of the West again.
The West will have to buckle or resort to nuclear war. Putin is letting the West bleed themselves dry of equipment and more importantly the will of the Western populations to support the warmongering elite.
He already has the moral backing of over 80% of the world population, the people can see the difference between right and wrong, good and evil.
The West is already flailing about in desperation.
The elite are being slowly backed into a corner. There will be no way out but a total cleansing of the corruption and crimes against humanity of the elite.
Don’t bogart the hopium, bro.
Even with the hyperbole, PCR makes a valid point. It would seem that Putin originally went into Ukraine with the intent of “peacefully” occupying the eastern part of the country. I suspect that occupying Crimea without undue reaction from the U.S. lulled Putin into thinking he could do the same with eastern Ukraine. When the U.S. overreacted with sanctions, and sending weapons to Ukraine, Putin too had to escalate.
To stop this it would seem that Putin either has to retreat (bad idea) or overrun the rest of Ukraine to stop the weapons flow and NATO membership. I think PCR is suggesting the latter. Perhaps PCR is a little too impatient, but with a brain-dead Biden in office, it might be wiser for Putin to start his offensive sooner rather than later. Putin is a smart guy so I would guess he has already figured this all out.
Unbelievable
I Was Right, Again and the 5D Bloggers Were Wrong, Again
It is time to gloat, again.
“Anyways, to explain away the lack of any visible strategy or gains or any victories above the tactical level actions in Bakhmut and Soledar, they had to concoct a new theory. Russia, they claim, is fighting an attrition warfare campaign. The only problem with this claim is that it is absolutely retarded.
Here’s why:
If 100k are dead after a year of heavy fighting, and Ukraine has a reserve of 7 million men, well, do the math on how many more years it will take to effect this brilliant plan.”
https://roloslavskiy.substack.com/p/i-was-right-again-and-the-5d-bloggers
The three biggest mistakes this armchair analyst makes is assuming that Deep Shekels doesn’t lie about number of conscripts Clown World faggot Zelensky has at his disposal , how many are fit for combat and how many will actually fight.
That’s right. You heard it here first. The fitness, morality and willingness to sacrifice ones’ life for a cause has a profound effect on the success of any army ever fielded.
The Russian Army during WWI had a total force of 15 million – not paper- but real men, and were winning a war of attrition and offense against Germany, but after a murderous 3 years in the trenches, the men lost all conviction for the cause, due in large part to Bolshevik agitation, and deserted en masse, leaving Russian- Bolshevik leadership no other option than to sue Germany for peace.
The is another factor to this war waging equation, that although often overlooked, is usually the most decisive component and that is gold. Gold makes might and might makes right*. The shortage of gold broke the Soviet Union. Will it break Russia, too. Deep Shekels bet the house on it, but so far it looks to be a very bad bluff.
*The CSA, found this brutal truth out the hard way , too
THE RUSSIAN REVOLUTION
A New History
SEAN McMEEKIN
Lenin and the Bolsheviks played no role worth mentioning in the
fall of the tsar, an unexpected gift of fate that, in mockery of Marxist
pretensions of historical determinism, took them entirely by surprise.
But they were the ultimate beneficiaries.
Lenin’s “Zimmerwald Left”program, worked out at wartime congresses of
socialist exiles inSwitzerland, which proposed to “turn the armies red” by infiltrating
them with radical agitators, was a minority doctrine much mocked by
Europe’s mainstream socialist leaders, who preferred to focus on
draft resistance and organizing antiwar demonstrations. After Lenin
was given the chance to put his program into practice after the
February Revolution, few were laughing anymore.
It was Lenin’sopportunistic exploitation of Russia’s vulnerable strategic position in
1917, his conscious efforts to change the “imperialist war” into civil
war by promoting mutinies and mass desertions of soldiers with their
arms, which furnished the Bolshevik Party with the muscle it needed
to triumph in the October Revolution and impose Communist rule on
Russia….
From the perspective of Russian commanders, it was a terrible
dilemma. Their men fought hard and defended their positions
whenever the enemy attacked. Just as at Chemin des Dames in
France, it was not defensive warfare the men objected to, but
fruitless offensives into no-man’s-land…
On June 29, Twenty-third Division of XXXIII Corps
tried to desert en masse, whereupon Kornilov ordered a “punitive
unit consisting of machine-gunners and artillery to fire on the fleeing
soldiers to bring them to a halt.” Giving up on the offensive, Kornilov
pulled back east of the Lomnitsa River to lick his wounds..
In Twelfth Army, Bolshevization proceeded more slowly than in
Fifth, but went deeper. General Parsky reported on September 28
that “there is absolutely no desire to fight in the soldiering masses.”
The reason was not hard to fathom. “On the grounds of Bolshevik
propaganda,” he explained, “commanding officers are, in the main,
viewed as counterrevolutionaries.” The officers, in turn, feared the
men, whose monitoring of their every move for signs of
counterrevolutionary sympathies left officers “feeling like they were
oppressed.” Any attempt to “restore discipline and restore the desire
to continue the war” was, in Parsky’s view, “completely impossible.”7
I thought the objective of the Russian SMO was reclaim some territory? Haven’t they already done this? If so (as I understand it), Russia is simply defending it now. Not offensively but defensively. Am I out in left field on this?
The Russian stated goal was to demilitarize the Ukraine and to bring the nazi azov militia to an end. Russia has stated repeatedly they did not want to occupy the land but clear it out of nazis and provide that buffer that nato has been ignoring and lying about.
Right now Russia is running a war of attrition. The west is pouring more money into this than any other war it orchestrated. Munitions’ ARE in short supply. China is also watching this closely and contrary to PCR/Rand/MIC bs will take Taiwan when they are ready and likely with barely a few shots fired. They KNOW the US will have no gas, no boots or bullets to come to Taiwan’s aid. And just like in the past the US will shrug its shoulders and tell their slaved allies, oh well.
The chinese are running a war of attrition in Taiwan, bleeding not only Taiwan but the US as well.
And their stated goal was bs.
PCR is a raging douchebag. zero credibility and the Rand corp proves him right. This douche squawks all the same BS he’s fed by his hero the vile nuland. POS orgasms over the thought of war.
Give him a gun or free ticket to Ukie and go fight but the POS coward would wet his pants if that were required of him.
The western world is falling under it’s weight, sure Putin is an idiot. If Putin waits long enough the west will destroy itself. If anyone has lost military credibility, it’s the US. You’re an idiot neocon PCR. You and Victoria Nuland probably agree on more than you disagree on. Your just another war monger.
As much as I dislike and disagree with PCR, he has called out the neocon jews. He’s a war monger but only in the same all the people shilling for Russia are. He just has complained they’re doing it wrong.
Follow the printed US money into the pockets of oligarchs and you will have your answer. The longer this drags out, the richer they get.
I had to laugh when I saw the title. I knew immediately who wrote it. Glancing through the comments in the referenced occidental observer article, one stood out.
Complete comment….
Richard McCulloch says:
February 22, 2023 at 4:35 pm
Col. Douglas Macgregpr, Scott Ritter and Larry Johnson are in my opinion the most reliable sources for analysis of the military situation. Macgregpr and Ritter estimate the size of the Russian army has more than doubled since September, from 370,000 to circa 800,000, and that circa 600,000 of these are committed to the Ukraine conflict. But the great majority of these have not yet been committed to combat, i.e., to the front lines, but are instead massed into three large concentrations behind the lines, with 100,000-150,000 in Belarus northwest of Kiev (old spelling), 150,000-180,000 in the south in Zaporizhzhya oblast, and 100,000-150,000 around Belgorod northeast of Kharkov (old spelling). The formations in these concentrations are configured and equipped for decisive offensive warfare with circa 2,800 tanks, 3,500 armored infantry fighting vehicles, 300 attack helicopters and the usual generous Russian inventories of artillery and air defense systems of all kinds. Macgregor and Ritter believe that the Russian preparations, build up and training are now essentially complete and anticipate the near future will bring the largest military offensive the world has seen since World War II, likely on multiple axes of advance from the three concentrations. Regarding the concentration in Belarus northwest of Kiev, Macgregor says it is ideally positioned to push south through the oblasts of Zhytomyr and Vinnytsya west of Kiev to link up with the Russian garrison in Transnistria, thereby cutting three-quarters of Ukraine off from the West.
Since September, while the Russians have been mobilizing and preparing their heavy striking power in the three concentrations behind the lines of contact, the brunt of the fighting on the line has been born mostly by the private Wagner group and the Donbass militias, supported by lighter regular forces of army airborne units and marines. This has been an economy of force operation to tie down and attrit the Ukrainian forces, initially in defensive fighting but more recently by small scale incremental offensive operations, such as around Bakhmut, which have been very successful in performing their purpose.
A couple of weeks ago the Russian Ministry of Defense released figures stating that their military fatalities to date, including the Wagner group and the militias, were circa 14,500. Macgregor had several weeks before estimated the number at 15,000-23,000. He estimated Ukrainian fatalities as at least 157,000 and probably closer to 200,000, while Ritter said they could be as high as 300,000.
This is of course pretty much the opposite of the narrative promoted by the mainstream media and politicians across the political spectrum, in which they are so heavily invested that if Macgregor and Ritter prove to be essentially right they should be irreparably discredited. That will be something to enjoy. Time will tell.
“He estimated Ukrainian fatalities as at least 157,000 and probably closer to 200,000, while Ritter said they could be as high as 300,000.”
got a link to how they came up with their estimates?
This is where the comment came from. The estimates could be from some interview as far as I know.
https://www.theoccidentalobserver.net/2023/02/22/russia-has-no-strategy-for-winning-this-war/
Hey PCR, If you’re too old to think then please stop writing. You’re sounding even more rabid than the demonic neocons.
How did I guess this was PCR by the title?
American economist–Instant gratification pushers, no idea of or respect for culture and humans. Putin was too smart to fall into the trap.
‘Guest Post by P…’ stopped reading right there.
PCR is definitely becoming senile I’ve seen this for some time. Its why I quit reading him long ago I only glanced at this to confirm my previous confirmation. Its sad !!
Is the writer serious? Putin announced his Special Military Operation and outlined its objectives which were to De-Nazify Ukraine and to stop the assault by Ukraine on the Russian speaking culturally affiliated people of the Donbass region. The anti Russia psy-op and “Putin is the new Hitler” drivel by the corporate media continues and PCR who is an old Ronald Reagan Cold Warrior is showing his colors, he wants Putin to go full USA and start a relentless bombing campaign against Ukraine (like NATO did to Kosovo under Clinton, Eisenhower did to Germany under Roosevelt and Truman did to Japan), send in the tanks and put US/NATO boots on the ground. PCR wants Russia and Putin go USA and occupy/pacify Ukraine! Typical Western hubristic imperialism.
What PCR fails to acknowledge is Russia has devastated Ukraine’s innate ability to wage war: Russia destroyed Ukraine’s early warning systems, their military airfields, and now the power infrastructure. The US/NATO is supplying Ukraine with logistical information via satellites, they are supplying Ukraine the armament material and are promising them tanks and aircraft (that the Ukrainians don’t even know how to operate) so the war is widening not due to Putin’s errors (yes Russia has made key mistakes) but due to the West’s determination to expand the conflict! The US has failed in crippling Russia economically, has pushed Russia into a cooperative alliance with Iran (who are supplying them drones) and China has supported Putin unequivocally. Meanwhile the world is choosing sides and the Global South is not siding with the West despite pleading, promises and pressure being applied by the US.
Lastly, most sane people know without additional continued support there is no way Ukraine a thoroughly corrupt failed state can win the day.
“Putin announced his Special Military Operation and outlined its objectives which were to De-Nazify Ukraine”
Y’all who say this have had a year to figure out this is nothing but propaganda.