Surveys show many believe Americans will take up arms against each other in the coming years as political polarization in the country remains at an all-time high.
A new poll reveals a startlingly large percentage of Americans anticipate a second civil war within the next few years, with many citing this year’s presidential election as a potential flashpoint for a conflict.
The survey by US pollster Rasmussen Reports found that 41% of likely voters think the country is likely to see a civil war by 2029, including 16% who think a civil war in that timeframe is “very likely.”
Researchers discovered a significant partisan component to the issue, with 37% of respondents saying civil war is more likely if current US President Joe Biden is reelected in November. Some 25% said the outcome would be more likely under a second Donald Trump presidency, while 30% said the outcome of this fall’s election would make little difference.
Surprisingly, more than half of Republican voters anticipate a civil war within the next five years, with 54% of them saying the outcome is likely.
Women, young adults, and non-white voters were found to be most likely to predict an imminent conflagration in the survey of 1,105 US voters.
“The possibility that America could face another civil war soon is not too far-fetched for a lot of voters,” said the polling firm. “Such discussions got a boost after the new movie ‘Civil War’ made its debut as number one at the box office last month.”
The Alex Garland film is not the only recent Western movie or television show predicting a dystopian near-future. British director Adam Curtis’ film HyperNormalization recognized the trend nearly a decade ago.
“Halfway through Adam Curtis’s mind-blowing documentary on the current socio-political turmoil in the world… there is a montage from Hollywood apocalypse movies,” noted critic J.J. McDermott. “The montage segues from one dramatic scene to another with prolonged gasping effect… the White House is destroyed in Independence Day, a giant dino-creature chucks cars about the streets of New York in Godzilla and a giant comet looms over North America in Deep Impact.”
“The fascination with 9/11 as a witnessed spectacle has persisted in movie studios and in the minds of their ‘disaster’ directors ever since and the summer blockbuster season is never without at least one example every year now.”
Curtis’s provocative film posits that society has increasingly retreated inward in recent years, with the rise of the Internet serving as a substitute for an increasingly unpredictable and chaotic Western world. Brexit and the election of Trump are offered as two key events signifying a descent into political turmoil.
But the existential angst has apparently found its way online as well, with entire Internet communities dedicated to discussing the likelihood of imminent war or apocalypse. The r/Collapse forum on the website Reddit devotes itself to “discussion regarding the potential collapse of global civilization, defined as a significant decrease in human population and/or political/economic/social complexity.”
Other surveys in recent years have revealed similar results, with one by YouGov in 2022 finding 43% of Americans think a civil war is likely in the next decade and another poll conducted that year finding 50.1% think it is a possibility.
“No matter what happens here – the verdict – Trump’s gonna win or there will be a civil war,” said one supporter of the former president protesting outside his current trial in New York City. “I’m not stupid. If you don’t vote for Trump, this great big empire is gonna crumble.”
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