Submitted by Mary Christine
Guest Post by John Wilder
“Hey, come on. You divorced? You Separated? She beat you up?” – Die Hard
My book on clocks finally arrived. It’s about time.
- Those who have an opposing ideology are considered evil.
- People actively avoid being near those of opposing ideology. Might move from communities or states just because of ideology.
- Common violence. Organized violence is occurring monthly.
- Common violence that is generally deemed by governmental authorities as justified based on ideology.
- Opposing sides develop governing/war structures. Just in case.
- Open War.
Volume V, Issue 12
All memes except for the clock and graphs are “as found”.
This is a moving situation, and things are changing quickly. The advice remains. Avoid crowds. Get out of cities. Now. A year too soon is better than one day too late.
In this issue: Front Matter – Clock of Doom Setting– Violence and Censorship Update – Biden’s Misery Index – Updated Civil War 2.0 Index – Talking About The Inevitable – Links
Front Matter
Welcome to the latest issue of the Civil War II Weather Report. These posts are different than the other posts at Wilder Wealthy and Wise and consist of smaller segments covering multiple topics around the single focus of Civil War 2.0, on the first or second Monday of every month. I’ve created a page (LINK) for links to all of the past issues. Also, subscribe because you’ll join nearly 850 other people and get every single Wilder post delivered to your inbox, M-W-F at or before 7:30AM Eastern, free of charge.
Clock of Doom Setting
Klaus really rocks that Klingon cosplay?
I’m keeping the clock at stage 8 this month. But last month there was the comment from Aesop that I promised to address this month, so here we are. The critical comments are in italics.
You’re still vastly over-selling the case. We’re at a 5 to a 6, at worst.
Things are neither wider nor deeper, just more widely and repetitively reported.
That’s a sign of desperation by the minions of Evil, not dominance.
Things are ugly. (Really ugly, if you want to use 1982, or 1962 as benchmarks. Which is why you shouldn’t.) But they’re not out of control, by any stretch. They haven’t turned up the burner, and the water isn’t anywhere near getting to frog-boiling range. Yet. That may (probably will) change. Perhaps quite rapidly (but that’s been true for ages). But until it does change, you really should throttle this back some.
Calling things an 8, at the current time, is gross overstatement.
This is a 100% fair criticism. I am certain we are, at minimum, at a 6 (People actively avoid being near those of opposing ideology. Might move from communities or states just because of ideology).
Why?
I know multiple people who have fled states merely for ideological reasons – the Red folks are leaving the Blue states, the GloboLeftists are leaving the Red states and taking their guns with them, to go and live in states that actually value the Second Amendment.
I just flew into Australia, and boy are my arms confiscated.
The GloboLeftists leaving Red states isn’t as big, because (at least now) the GloboLeftists are tolerated in Red states. You can have a “Biden” sign in your front yard and no one will vandalize the place. This is mostly true.
There is a paradox of these places: If you live in the parts of America where it’s likely that you’ll need to use force for self-defense, you also live in a part of America where the District Attorney will charge you, and the jury will convict you for using self-defense. If you live in the parts of America where it’s unlikely you’ll need to use force for self-defense, you also live in the parts of America where the odds are they’ll give you a medal instead of indicting you. If indicted, the odds are nearly zero that any jury would convict you,
People on the TradRight see that, and they’re moving.
So, 6 is the floor. Is it also the ceiling? My logic says no, and here’s why:
Most Civil War violence is homicide.
A large portion is because the state allows or encourages it to happen. It’s not tanks, it’s not fighter jets, it’s people killing people – US Civil War 1.0 was an anomaly, mostly. Out in Missouri, though, there were many blood feuds that only glancingly involved politics. Ditto the Balkans, where neighbors just started killing neighbors due to ethnicity or due to them being middle class. Ditto the Indonesian civil war, where it was mainly just homicides based on opportunity, not based on political reasons.
Dali’s brother was a really good boxer. His name was Muhamma.
Regardless, there is currently an increasing amount of violence that is well tolerated, as long as it is perpetrated on people who probably vote on the Right. The January 6 protesters were charged in ways that strain any sort of claim of fair justice. The actually violent and felonious Black Lives Matter™ protests and Antifa® protests had nary an arrest, and of those arrested, the punishments for things like assault with a deadly weapon, attempted murder, and actual murder were not handed down. Most protesters (of the GloboLeft variety) were just ignored.
They got the message. Even now, violence is 100% tolerated by the GloboLeftElite Soros District Attorneys and their “catch and release” program for violent felons. In 2011, Syria released all of the violent prisoners to act as a counterbalance to peaceful protestors. This is a known strategy. Civil War 2.0 won’t look like Civil War 1.0, and it will be a far, far dirtier thing, and we may never see a single uniformed conflict.
Where do football players get fresh uniforms from? New Jersey.
In my mind, that brings us to an 8. Common violence that is generally deemed by governmental authorities as justified based on ideology.
I see Aesop’s point, and, though we may differ, I’ve got to make my call, and I’m sticking with an 8. If we see any meaningful attempt to back down the violence in GloboLeftist areas, I’ll rachet it down accordingly.
Violence and Censorship Update
Let’s start with Elon Musk. A judge in some place called Australia seemed to think that Australia controls the media in the United States, and, heck, maybe interstellar space for all I know. She ordered Elon Musk’s company, X™ to stop showing a video of an adherent of the Religion of Peace stabbing a Christian priest during a sermon. Elon (predictably) told her to shove it.
Microsoft® has likewise decided that games should only have women in them that look like sacks of potatoes. The good news is that Amy Schumer isn’t doing much, so she should be okay to step in as a model.
And, if you thought that you could own and operate a business and not hire criminals? I guess you didn’t figure on 2024. A convenience store is being sued by the Justice Department for not hiring criminals. I didn’t know Hunter needed a job that badly.
And, if you thought that having a bridge named after the guy who wrote the National Anthem was not unreasonable, well, they’re trying to disappear him from history.
Finally, the FISA program was not only extended, but expanded. Now the NSA has the power to look into, essentially, the whole Internet. Go figure.
Biden’s Misery Index
Let’s take a look to see how we’ve done this month . . . .
Yup, up again. And it’s gonna get worse.
Updated Civil War II Index
The Civil War II graphs are an attempt to measure four factors that might make Civil War II more likely, in real time. They are broken up into Violence, Political Instability, Economic Outlook, and Illegal Alien Crossings. As each of these is difficult to measure, I’ve created for three of the four metrics some leading indicators that combine to become the index. On illegal aliens, I’m just using government figures.
Violence:
Violence is down, expected with cooler weather. Probably quiet until June or July.
Political Instability:
Up is more unstable, and it is slightly up. I expect this fall to be a bit more crazy.
Economic:
Economic numbers are down a bit. But prices are up.
Illegal Aliens:
Second Highest April. Ever. But the normies are waking up.
Talking About The Inevitable
One of the clues that people are going to have a divorce is that they start talking about it. A recent Rasmussen Reports® poll shows that:
- 41 percent of voters are thinking that there is a new civil war due sometime in the future,
- 16 percent felt it would occur in the next five years,
- 37 percent of voters felt civil war is more likely if Biden remains in the White House after the election,
- 36 percent of Alaskans want to leave the Union,
- 31 percent of Texans want to leave the Union,
- 29 percent of Californians want to leave the Union, and
- 28 percent of New Yorkers want out.
When I started writing the Weather Report in 2019 (this is the 60th monthly issue!) I stated that I felt that the very first possible time that a civil war would occur would be 2025. I felt the halfway point and most likely time would be 2032, and the latest date would be (I think this is right) 2037. There are reasons for those years, tying to several large trends in economics, world power dynamics, hordes of illegal aliens, and other demographics.
Back in 2020, Scott Adams predicted we wouldn’t have a civil war in the near term. His reason? “We don’t want one.” I think, four years later, we’re getting closer to wanting one. Remember: it doesn’t require everyone to agree to a civil war, what it requires is a committed minority. John Adams, who knows more about this than I do, noted that he thought about a third of Americans were in favor of the Revolution, which was just a civil war that we happened to win. Adams felt another third didn’t want war, and another third were loyal to the king.
The numbers above are showing that we’re at danger levels of support for a major change, and I think next year takes us into the period where civil war becomes possible – with the peak probability still sitting at 2032. Here in 2024, though, it’s a nice, cool night and tomorrow’s weather will be perfect. A storm may be coming, but tonight I’ll prepare. And enjoy.
LINKS
As usual, links this month are courtesy of Ricky. Thanks so much, Ricky!!
Bad Guys
https://twitter.com/TTEcclesBrown/status/1779532832056180756
https://twitter.com/TTEcclesBrown/status/1776630901277126892
https://twitter.com/i/status/1779690452398330155
https://twitter.com/i/status/1782456547525685499
https://twitter.com/GangHits/status/1784616636735004918
https://twitter.com/i/status/1783536135085388174
Good Guys
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0gKDgYHvRA
https://www.newsweek.com/unc-frat-brothers-flag-donations-update-1897055
One Gal
https://twitter.com/Red_Pill_US/status/1779348493490131392
Body Count
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GLGuBnfbMAA2xEN?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GLGFWhwXsAAinOO?format=jpg&name=900×900
https://www.thirdway.org/report/the-21st-century-red-state-murder-crisis
https://www.uncoverdc.com/2024/04/09/transgender-surgery-in-military-paid-by-taxpayers
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1775928212805103945
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/ar-BB1llO5L
Vote Count
https://twitter.com/Rogue_Outlaw17/status/1775851708436078957
https://www.uncoverdc.com/2024/04/24/poorly-managed-toddlers-are-running-elections
https://twitter.com/CitizenFreePres/status/1778840719387488583
https://twitter.com/amrenewcitizen/status/1774806979367641474
https://www.newsweek.com/fani-willis-dealt-blow-new-testimony-1886322
https://twitter.com/CannConActual/status/1773089354635698446
https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1774799076707422307
https://twitter.com/TrueTheVote/status/1775625397431877718
Civil War
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/alex-garland-civil-war-explosive-083228878.html
https://americanmind.org/salvo/extremism-on-the-ballot/
https://alt-market.us/the-political-left-has-proven-beyond-a-doubt-that-they-are-authoritarians/
https://www.axios.com/2024/04/09/america-politics-divided-polarization-data
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2024/04/06/america-is-hurling-toward-a-full-blown-hot-civil-war/
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/04/26/what-a-real-civil-war-would-do-to-the-us-economy/
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