5 Worst Stock Predictions Of 2021

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THE ROAD TO PERDITION IS PAVED WITH EVIL INTENTIONS – A FINAL RECKONING

In Part 1 of this article I pointed out how we have allowed ourselves to be cowed by authoritarian “experts” who have proven to be nothing but incompetent and wrong every step of the way, while the financiers have used the crisis once again to pillage the citizens as they did in 2008/2009.

The absurdity of shutting down this country based on academic death models that make economist and climatologist models look highly accurate in comparison, can be seen in the ludicrousness of the following chart. And realize we did this on purpose because of a virus that will kill .018% of the U.S. population. And most of those deaths will occur in several highly dense urban enclaves, with the rest of the country barely affected.

By shutting down the country the government has crushed virtually every business in the country and putting tens of millions out of work, with resulting crash in tax revenues at the Federal, State and Local level. At the same time, Trump and everyone in Congress have become Bernie Sanders socialists, except most of it is corporate socialism. The deficit was already on track to top $1.2 trillion, but with the $2.2 trillion stimulus package, and more to come, the deficit this year and next will approach $3 trillion.

“It has been more profitable for us to bind together in the wrong direction than to be alone in the right one. Those who have followed the assertive idiot rather than the introspective wise person have passed us some of their genes. This is apparent from a social pathology: psychopaths rally followers.”Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Continue reading “THE ROAD TO PERDITION IS PAVED WITH EVIL INTENTIONS – A FINAL RECKONING”

Still Time to Buy Gold, Says Jim Cramer

From Birch Gold Group

gold corona virus

This week, Your News to Know rounds up the latest top stories involving gold and the overall economy. Stories include: Jim Cramer advises Americans not to miss the boat with gold, why now is the time to move into gold, and gold’s drop reinforces its safe-haven status.

Jim Cramer: There’s still time to buy gold

Wednesday was yet another instance of bad turning to worse when it comes to the coronavirus and its effect on the global economy. On the same day that the Dow dropped another 1,300 points, the World Health Organization issued a statement that declared the coronavirus a global pandemic.

Continue reading “Still Time to Buy Gold, Says Jim Cramer”

Are Millennials About To Get Slaughtered?

Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog,

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20181022-bull.png?itok=3804vper

The other day I wrote a piece “When will chasing the hot stock no longer work?” which outlined how “price momentum” was the main driving factor during the recent stock market rally. I went through how value stocks have been sucking wind ever since the Great Financial Crisis.

The article got a lot of feedback, but there was one email that I wanted to share. It comes from Andy Mayer – Albion Green founder – a financial markets trainer, lecturer, consultant, and just all-around-good-guy. He sent me an interaction he had with one of his students:

Continue reading “Are Millennials About To Get Slaughtered?”

STUPID IS AS STUPID DOES

If you prefer fake news, fake data, and a fake narrative about an improving economy and stock market headed to 30,000, don’t read this fact based, reality check article. The level of stupidity engulfing the country has reached epic proportions, as the mainstream fake news networks flog bullshit Russian conspiracy stories, knowing at least 50% of the non-thinking iGadget distracted public believes anything they hear on the boob tube.

This stupendous degree of utter stupidity goes to a new level of idiocy when it comes to the stock market. The rigged fleecing machine known as Wall Street has gone into hyper-drive since futures dropped by 700 points on the night of Trump’s election. An already extremely overvalued market, as measured by every historically accurate valuation metric, soared by 4,000 points from that futures low – over 20% – to an all-time high. Despite dozens of warning signs and the experience of two 40% to 50% crashes in the last fifteen years, lemming like investors are confident the future is so bright they gotta wear shades.

The current bull market is the 2nd longest in history at 8 years. In March of 2009, the S&P 500 bottomed at a fitting level for Wall Street of 666. In a shocking coincidence, it bottomed on the same day Bernanke & Geithner forced the FASB to rollover like mangy dogs and stop enforcing mark to market accounting. Amazingly, when Wall Street banks, along with Fannie and Freddie, could value their toxic assets at whatever they chose, profits surged. The market is now 240% higher.

Continue reading “STUPID IS AS STUPID DOES”

SOMETHING WICKED THIS WAY COMES

I stopped trying to predict markets back in 2008 when the Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, Wall Street bankers, and their propaganda peddling media mouthpieces colluded to rig the markets to benefit the elite establishment players while screwing average Americans. I haven’t owned any stocks to speak of since 2006. I missed the the final blow-off, the 50% crash, and the subsequent engineered new bubble. But that doesn’t stop me from assessing our true economic situation, market valuations, and historical comparisons in order to prove the irrationality and idiocy of the current narrative.

The proof of this market being rigged and not based upon valuations, corporate earnings, discounted cash flows, or anything related to free market capitalism, was the reaction to Trump’s upset victory. The narrative was status quo Hillary was good for markets and Trump’s anti-establishment rhetoric would unnerve the markets. When the Dow futures plummeted by 800 points on election night, left wingers like Krugman cackled and predicted imminent collapse. The collapse lasted about 30 minutes, as the Dow recovered all 800 points and has subsequently advanced another 1,500 points since election day. Krugman’s predictive abilities proven stellar once again.

Continue reading “SOMETHING WICKED THIS WAY COMES”

IT’S NOT THE BREXIT STUPID

Just over a week ago the world was coming unglued, as enough British citizens grew a pair and spit in the face of the EU establishment and global elite by voting to exit the EU. The fear mongering by central bankers and their puppet political hacks failed to deter people who have become sick and tired of being abused and pillaged by bureaucrats working on behalf of bankers and billionaires.

Stock markets around the world plummeted on Thursday and Friday. The world braced for another Black Monday. The phone lines were buzzing between central bankers around the world over the weekend as their banker constituents demanded relief. If one thing has been proven over the last seven years, its a coordinated effort between central bankers and Wall Street banks to rig the stock market higher can work over a short time period.

The titans of finance were able to once again confound short-sellers and the prophets of doom with a 5% surge from the Friday lows over the next week. It was surely a coincidence the Fed declared all Wall Street banks, safe, sound, and capable of buying back their stocks to the tune of billions early in the week.

These insolvent zombies were now free to borrow billions to buy back their overvalued stocks, destroying shareholder value, while boosting executive compensation. Poor Jamie Dimon is struggling to get by on his $27 million per year. The Wall Street banks obliged by immediately announcing multi-billion dollar buyback schemes to capitalize on the short-term trading mentality of the 30 year old MBA trading geniuses who bought the news without worrying about the actual value of the stocks they were buying.

Continue reading “IT’S NOT THE BREXIT STUPID”

THE HERD IS HEADING FOR A CLIFF

You would think investors (muppets) would be grateful for the extended topping process of the stock market, as it has given them the opportunity to exit before the inevitable crash. As CNBC and the rest of the mainstream media spin bullish stories to keep the few remaining mom and pop investors sedated and the millions of passive working Americans invested in their 401ks, the Wall Street rigging machine siphons off billions in ill-gotten gains, while absconding with fees for worthless advice.

Does the average schmuck know the S&P 500 stood at 2,063 on November 21, 2014 and currently sits at 2,056, thirteen months later? Based on the media narrative, we are still in the midst of a raging bull market. John Hussman provides the counterpoint to this narrative with unequivocal factual evidence based upon a hundred years of stock market data and valuations. Anyone investing in today’s market should expect ZERO returns over the next ten years and a 40% to 55% plunge in the near future. And as a cherry on top, a recession has arrived.

The summary of this outlook is straightforward. I view the equity market as being in the late-stage top formation of the third financial bubble in 15 years. Based on a century of evidence relating the most historically reliable valuation measures to actual subsequent market returns, neither a market plunge of 40-55% over the completion of the current cycle, nor the expectation of zero 10-12 year S&P 500 nominal total returns, nor the likelihood of substantially negative 10-12 year real returns should be viewed as worst-case scenarios – they are all actually run-of-the-mill expectations from current extremes. Based on the joint behavior of the most reliable leading economic measures (particularly new orders plus order backlogs, minus inventories), widening credit spreads, and clearly deteriorating market internals, our economic outlook has also moved to a guarded expectation of a U.S. recession.

Continue reading “THE HERD IS HEADING FOR A CLIFF”

JIM CRAMER’S YUM-MY ADVICE

Jim Cramer, the stock guru of CNBC, had this to say about Yum Brands on August 13, 2015 after bad news from China:

Wall Street expectations jumped the gun on Yum Brands, but as share prices pulled back on disappointing July sales in China, now’s the time to buy the stock, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Tuesday.

“My charitable trust is buying today. Why? Because I think that the expectations have gotten too far ahead.”

“I think it’s temporary. I want to go back to what Novak promised. He promised that by Q4, the drama would draw to a close. We’re not in Q4 yet.”

That was less than two months ago. The stock was selling for $84 on the day he said he was buying. He isn’t a stock genius for nothing. On his Tuesday night show before the earnings were released he called Yum a bargain, even though it had a PE ratio of 39. Yum reported their third quarter results last night and they were disastrous. They missed earning estimates by a mile and drastically reduced their year forecast. The stock plummeted by 19% in one day to close at $67.67.

For those keeping track, anyone who followed Cramer’s sage advice has lost 20% of their investment in 8 weeks. That’s an annualized return of NEGATIVE 130%. This guy should have a TV show.

His individual stock calls are almost as good as his market calls. How could anyone take this bozo seriously?


GREATEST TAKEDOWN EVER

THIS BEAR IS JUST WAKING FROM HIBERNATION

“Every man has a right to his own opinion, but no man has a right to be wrong in his facts” ― Bernard M. Baruch

“The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible.” ― Bernard M. Baruch

As the market drops 200 to 300 points daily on a fairly frequent basis these days, and has now dropped 13% in the last four months, John Hussman’s valuation analysis based upon historical facts is proving to be accurate. He’s not an “I told you so” type of person, but I am. The MSM stories follow the same old storyline – this is just a correction, time to buy the dip, stocks are undervalued, the Fed won’t let the market fall. We’ve been here before, twice in the last fifteen years. Wall Street and their media mouthpieces attempted to spread misinformation about the nature of the markets in 2000 and 2007, as epic bear markets were just getting underway. John Hussman cut through their crap then and he is cutting through it now.

“Is our profession really so lazy that we would advise people to risk their financial security based on tinker-toy models and pretty pictures that we don’t even have the rigor to test historically? Investors appear eager to ‘scoop up’ so-called ‘bargains’ on the belief that stocks are ‘cheap relative to bonds.’ All of this is predicated on the belief that profit margins will remain at record highs, that the Fed Model is correct, and that P/E ratios based on extremely elevated measures of earnings should be evaluated based on norms for much more restrained measures of earnings. Based on daily closing prices, the S&P 500 has not even experienced a 10% correction, yet the recent decline has been characterized as if investors are acting ‘like the world is about to end.’ This is not the pinnacle of human irrationality, but in fact, quite a shallow selloff from a historical standpoint. The fact that Wall Street is branding it otherwise is evidence that investors have completely forgotten how deep the market’s losses can periodically become.”

Hussman Weekly Market Comment, August 2007
Long-Term Evidence on the Fed Model and Forward Operating P/E Ratios

“Given the damage already wrought on the Nasdaq, there is a natural inclination to buy the dip. We believe that there is little merit in doing so. The current market climate is characterized by extremely unfavorable valuations, unfavorable trend uniformity, and hostile yield trends. This combination is what we define as a Crash Warning, and this climate has historically occurred in less than 4% of market history. That 4% of market history includes the 1929 crash and the 1987 crash, as well as a number of less memorable crashes and panics. We prefer to hedge until there is a rational prospect for market gains. When valuations are favorable, stocks are attractive from the standpoint of ‘investment’ – meaning that stock prices are attractive compared to the conservatively discounted value of cash flows which will be thrown off in the future. When trend uniformity is favorable, stocks are attractive from the standpoint of ‘speculation’ – meaning that regardless of valuation, investors are displaying an increased tolerance for risk which favors a further advance in prices.”

Hussman Investment Research & Insight, November 2000

Continue reading “THIS BEAR IS JUST WAKING FROM HIBERNATION”

DOW IS LOWER THAN IT WAS IN DECEMBER 2013

You listen to the spokes bimbos on Bloomberg, the bubble headed bimbos on Fox, and the brain dead bimbos on CNBC, along with the various talking heads, pundits, shills and shysters every day on the corporate propaganda media. They regurgitate the false economic data distributed by the Orwellian government agencies to convince the the ignorant masses the economy is in recovery mode, jobs are plentiful, housing is booming, and the .1% aren’t really fleecing the muppets. They also blather about an ongoing bull market in stocks despite the FACT the Dow Jones is now lower than it was on December 27, 2013. Do bull markets go 20 months without advancing? Do you think Jim Cramer will mention this FACT today on CNBC?


Did Tim Cook Lie To Save Apple Stock: The “Channel Checks” Paint A Very Gloomy Picture

Tyler Durden's picture

Back in February 2013, Thorsten Heins, then-CEO of what was once the iconic “smartphone” brand Blackberry, publicly lied that its Hail Mary iPhone competitor, the Z10, had “record” early sales. He told CNET, that “BlackBerry nearly tripled the sales of its best performance over the first week in the U.K., while it had its best first day ever in Canada. In fact, it was more than 50 percent better than any other launch day in our history in Canada.”

Less than one year later, and less than two years after he was hired, the ruse was up – Blackberry’s US market share has fallen from 50% to 3% in four years – and Thorsten was fired.

Fast forward to Monday morning, when the S&P500 had just hit its first limit down in history, stocks were crashing, countless ETFs were crashing more as ETF pricing models were corrupt and broken, the QQQs were plummeting, and none other than AAPL was set to open at a price of $92 wiping out tens of billions of market cap overnight.

It is then that AAPL CEO Tim Cook may have pulled a page straight out of Thorsten Heins’ playbook when did something nobody expected him to do – he panicked, and emailed CNBC anchor Jim Cramer to do what the AAPL CEO himself admitted the company does not do by providing mid-quarter updates, and assure the CNBC anchor that there is no need to sell AAPL stock.

Continue reading “Did Tim Cook Lie To Save Apple Stock: The “Channel Checks” Paint A Very Gloomy Picture”

TRUST WALL STREET & THEIR MSM LACKEYS THIS TIME

The stock market topped out in January 2000 and proceeded to fall 40% over the next 32 months. Here is what the “experts” had to say at the time. You could fast forward to 2007 and the same idiots were saying the same things, before the market proceeded to drop 50%. Turn on CNBC today and many of these same shills are mouthing the same gibberish. At least they are consistent assholes.

March 1999: Harry S. Dent, author of “The Roaring 2000s.” “There has been a paradigm shift.” Poor Harry, the New Economy arrived, so did a long recession.

August 1999: Charles Kadlec, author, “Dow 100,000.” “The DJIA will reach 100,000 in 2020 after “two decades of above-average economic growth with price stability.”

October 1999: James Glassman, author, “Dow 36,000.” “What is dangerous is for Americans not to be in the market. We’re going to reach a point where stocks are correctly priced … it’s not a bubble … The stock market is undervalued.”

December 1999: Joseph Battipaglia, market analyst. “Some fear a burst Internet bubble, but our analysis shows that Internet companies … carry expected long-term growth rates twice other rapidly growing segments within tech.”

December 1999: Larry Wachtel, Prudential. “Most of these stocks are reasonably priced. There’s no reason for them to correct violently in the year 2000.” Nasdaq lost over 50%.

December 1999: Ralph Acampora, Prudential Securities. “I’m not saying this is a straight line up. … I’m saying any kind of declines, buy them!”

February 2000: Larry Kudlow, CNBC host. “This correction will run its course until the middle of the year. Then things will pick up again, because not even Greenspan can stop the Internet economy.”

April 2000: Myron Kandel, CNN. “The bottom line is in, before the end of the year, the Nasdaq and Dow will be at new record highs.”

September 2000: Jim Cramer, host of “Mad Money” on CNBC. Sun Microsystems “has the best near-term outlook of any company I know.” It dropped from $60 to below $3 in two years.

Continue reading “TRUST WALL STREET & THEIR MSM LACKEYS THIS TIME”

FOURTH TURNING – THE SHADOW OF CRISIS HAS NOT PASSED – PART ONE

“Imagine some national (and probably global) volcanic eruption, initially flowing along channels of distress that were created during the Unraveling era and further widened by the catalyst. Trying to foresee where the eruption will go once it bursts free of the channels is like trying to predict the exact fault line of an earthquake. All you know in advance is something about the molten ingredients of the climax, which could include the following:

  • Economic distress, with public debt in default, entitlement trust funds in bankruptcy, mounting poverty and unemployment, trade wars, collapsing financial markets, and hyperinflation (or deflation)
  • Social distress, with violence fueled by class, race, nativism, or religion and abetted by armed gangs, underground militias, and mercenaries hired by walled communities
  • Political distress, with institutional collapse, open tax revolts, one-party hegemony, major constitutional change, secessionism, authoritarianism, and altered national borders
  • Military distress, with war against terrorists or foreign regimes equipped with weapons of mass destruction” 

 The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe – 1997

When you read pertinent passages from Strauss & Howe’s prophetic assessment of history from a generational perspective, eighteen years after its publication and seven years into the Crisis they forecasted with uncanny accuracy, you find yourself shaking your head and appreciating their visionary generational appraisal of antiquity. Those who scorn The Fourth Turning either haven’t read it, are ignorant of the cyclical nature of history, blindly believe in never ending human progress, or their salary is dependent upon not acknowledging the truth. A year consists of four seasons – Spring, Summer, Fall, and Winter. A long human life of 80 years consists of four phases – childhood, young adulthood, mid-life, and old age. Human beings tend to associate themselves with the cohort born within the roughly 20 year period that makes up one phase of life.

Members of a generation share an age location in history, tend to share some common beliefs and behaviors, including basic attitudes about risk taking, culture and values, civic engagement, family life, and tend to have a sense of common perceived membership in that generation. The generational attitudes, moods, leaders, and events that occur during recurring 80 year cycles drive the pathway of history. Strauss & Howe have been able to document the Turnings of Anglo-American history back to 1435. Like the seasons in a year, there have been cyclical turnings every twenty years or so for centuries. They can be described as High (Spring), Awakening (Summer), Unraveling (Fall), Crisis (Winter). Each turning is a reflection of generational interactions, moods, and attitudes. We are now seven years into a Crisis that will likely not climax until the late 2020’s.

Saeculum (climax year) Crisis (Full Era) Time from one Crisis climax to next Crisis climax
Revolutionary (1781) American Revolution (1773–1794)
Civil War (1863) Civil War (1860–1865) 82 years
Great Power (1944) Great Depression and World War II (1929-1946) 81 years
Millennial (2025?) Global Financial Crisis (2008–2029?) 81 years?

Continue reading “FOURTH TURNING – THE SHADOW OF CRISIS HAS NOT PASSED – PART ONE”

CRAMERICA DOWN TO 20,000 PEOPLE

Maybe Comcast needs to market CNBC as a comedy channel. Or maybe they could have their vacuous bimbos report the business news topless. I must sheepishly admit that I actually bought one of Cramer’s books back in the 1990s. I haven’t watched 5 minutes of CNBC in the last five years. It’s a pathetic joke. If they are getting these kind of ratings with stocks near all-time highs, imagine how well they’ll do after the next crash. This is what happens when you disregard truthful journalism and provide propaganda in the form of entertainment, while kissing the ass of Wall Street oligarchs.

CNBC pays this douchebag over $1 million per year and he gets 2,000 viewers in his targeted demo. How do I get a gig like that? A TV version of TBP would attract 10 times as many viewers as Cramer. I’d have Billy and llpoh on as co-hosts.

CNBC Viewership Drops To Lowest Since 1997, Cramer Has Worst Month Ever

Tyler Durden's picture

While those in the financial industry who are forced to make profits by trading other people’s money (note: never their own) enjoy CNBC for the comedic content and the endless barrage of humorous propaganda (while getting their actionable info from Bloomberg and sellside soft-dollar services), the retail investor has traditionally relied on the Comcast channel for news updates, biased as they may be (remember: the Fed, ECB and BOJ are only micromanaging the global economy and injecting trillions because all is swell and self-sustainingly recovering and stuff) and trading recommendations.

At least that’s how it used to work. However, when one looks at the most recent CNBC ratings something odd emerges: either the “retail investor” has found an alternative media outlet for getting their financial information during the day (or simply is tired of being lied to about some magical recovery that only affects 1% of the population) or said retail investor simply no longer exists despite all the endless propaganda to the contrary spewed by CNBC itself.

The reason? According to the latest Nielsen Media Research data, in the second quarter of 2014, CNBC viewership for all viewers just dropped to 162,000 – a new (and depressing for Comcast) low, on par with CNBC’s viewership from Q2 of 1997!

Where things get funny is when one looks at the ratings of that consummate entertainer, that self-appointed “voice of the people”, Jim Cramer. Sadly for Cramer, the people are now gone. Because also according to Nielsen Jim Cramer’s Mad Money show just had its lowest ever rated month in the 25-54 demo, and is about to have its second lowest rated month ever across total viewers.

 

But the punchline is when one looks at Cramer’s ratings on a daily basis. It is here where one finds that this past Friday not only was Mad Money trounced by its competition including Fox Business’ Making Money with Charles Payne (at a ratio of some 9 to 1) and Bloomberg’s West show, but Mad Money had a laughable 2,000 (!) viewers in the targeted 25-54 demo.

Surely even the cancelled Larry Kudlow could find more viewers than this? And in other rhetorical question, maybe it is not too late for Comcast to ask for its money back?

HAS ANYONE EVER THANKED TIMMY GEITHNER FOR SAVING THE REPUBLIC?

Edward Bernays must be looking up with a proud smirk on his face. His teachings have been perfected beyond his wildest dreams. It had to be done in the name of democracy. Truth, freedom and liberty have always been dangerous and unnecessary concepts for the ruling class to allow. The propaganda media will do there duty until the very end.

“The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country. …We are governed, our minds are molded, our tastes formed, our ideas suggested, largely by men we have never heard of. This is a logical result of the way in which our democratic society is organized. Vast numbers of human beings must cooperate in this manner if they are to live together as a smoothly functioning society. …In almost every act of our daily lives, whether in the sphere of politics or business, in our social conduct or our ethical thinking, we are dominated by the relatively small number of persons…who understand the mental processes and social patterns of the masses. It is they who pull the wires which control the public mind.” – Edward Bernays – Propaganda

Guest Post by Jesse

Tweeting the Decline and Fall of Western Civilization, One Institution At a Time

 

“[Edmund] Burke said that there were Three Estates in Parliament; but, in the Reporters’ Gallery yonder, there sat a Fourth Estate, more important far than they all.”

Thomas Carlyle

“In the First Amendment, the Founding Fathers gave the free press the protection is must have to fulfill its essential role in our democracy. The press was to serve the governed, not the governors. The Government’s power to censor the press was abolished so that the press would remain forever free to censure the Government. The press was protected so that it could bare the secrets of government and inform the people.”

Hugo L. Black

“The TV business is uglier than most things. It is normally perceived as some kind of cruel and shallow money trench through the heart of the journalism industry, a long plastic hallway where thieves and pimps run free and good men die like dogs, for no good reason.”

Hunter S. Thompson

“We become slaves the moment we hand the keys to the definition of reality entirely over to someone else, whether it is a business, an economic theory, a political party, the White House, Newsworld or CNN.”

B.W. Powe

Quod erat demonstratum. (that which was to be demonstrated)