THIS BUST SHOULD BE A DOOZY

Automatic Earth with another reality check on the shale gas BOOM!!!

Let’s see – tremendous levels of debt, hype times infinity, Wall Street shysters, douchebags like Aubrey McClendon, delusional drillers, record low prices, high drilling costs, and low EROEI. Sounds like a perfect combination.  

Shale Gas Reality Begins to Dawn

SUNDAY, JUNE 24, 2012  2:30 PM

It has long been our position at The Automatic Earth that North America is collectively dreaming with regard to unconventional natural gas. While gas is undeniably there, the Energy Returned On Energy Invested (EROEI) is dramatically lower than for conventional supplies. The critical nature of EROEI has been widely ignored, but will ultimately determine what is and is not an energy source, and shale gas is going to fail the test.

As we pointed out in Get Ready for the North American Gas Shock in July 2011, the natural gas situation is not what it seems at all:

The shale gas bubble is a perfect example of the irrationality of markets, the power of perverse short-term incentives, the driving force of momentum-chasing, the dominance of perception over reality in determining prices, and the determination for a herd to stampede over a cliff all at once.

The perception of a gas glut has driven prices so low that none of the participants are making money (at least not by producing gas) or creating value. We see a familiar story of excessive debt, and the hollowing out of productive companies dead set on pursuing a mirage.

Many industry insiders know perfectly well that the prospects for recovering substantial amounts of gas are poor, and that the industry is structured as a ponzi scheme. Still, there has been money to be made in the short term by flipping land leases and building infrastructure to handle gas.

The hype is so extreme that those who fall for it contemplate, in all seriousness, North America becoming a natural gas exporting powerhouse, and a threat to Australian LNG producers, or to Russia’s Gazprom.

This concept, constructed from a mixture of greed and desperation (at the lack of conventional gas prospects), is entirely divorced from reality. (See here for Dimitri Orlovs excellent piece on why Gazprom has nothing to worry about.)

Nevertheless, euphoric hype is extremely catching. Given that prices are driven by perception, not by reality, hype has the power to change the dynamics of an industry, exaggerating boom and bust cycles in practice. The hype has resulted in the perception of glut – that North America is drowning in natural gas. The inconvenient fact that this peception is completely wrong does not alter its power in relation to prices.

Natural gas companies gambling on shale gas have been facing prices so low – far below the cost of production – that all of them have been producing gas unprofitably. The financial risk has been increasing dramatically as the companies have been drowning in debt trying to ride out the rock bottom prices that have been the result of people believing the fantasy. Finally, casualties of the financial shenanigans involved are emerging. It is very likely that there will be many more, as companies that have tried to ride out the low prices go under.

Wolf Richter:

Natural Gas: Where Endless Money Went To Die

Alas, thanks to the Feds zero-interest-rate policy and the trillions it has handed over to its cronies since late 2008, the sweeps of creative destruction have broken down. Instead, boundless sums of money have been searching for a place to go, and they’re chasing yield when there is none, and so theyre taking risks, any kind of risks, in their vain battle to come out ahead.

The result is a stunning misallocation of capital to the tune of tens of billions of dollars to an economic activity drilling for dry natural gas that has been highly unprofitable for years. It’s where money has gone to die. What’s left is debt, and wells that will never produce enough to make their investors whole.

But the money has dried up. And drilling for natural gas is collapsing. Last week, there were only 562 rigs drilling for dry natural gas, the lowest number since September 1999…

 

…At $2.53 per million Btu at the Henry Hub, the price of natural gas is up 33% from the April low of $1.90 per million Btu, a number not seen in a decade.

.But even if it doubled, it would still be below the cost of production. And if it tripled, it might still be below the cost of production for most producers. That’s how mispriced the commodity has become.

More from Wolf Richter:

Dirt Cheap Natural Gas Is Tearing Up The Very Industry That’s Producing It

The economics of fracking are horrid. All wells have decline rates where production drops over time. But instead of decades for traditional wells, decline rates in horizontal fracking are measured in weeks and months: production falls off a cliff from day one and continues for a year or so until it levels out at about 10% of initial production. To be in the black over its life under these circumstances, a well in the Barnett Shale would have to sell its production for about $8 per million Btu, pricing models have shown.

…Drilling is destroying capital at an astonishing rate, and drillers are left with a mountain of debt just when decline rates are starting to wreak their havoc. To keep the decline rates from mucking up income statements, companies had to drill more and more, with new wells making up for the declining production of old wells. Alas, the scheme hit a wall, namely reality…

…The natural gas business is brutal. The peak in drilling occurred in September 2008 with 1,606 rigs. Then the financial crisis threw it into a vertigo-inducing plunge. After last years mini-peak, the plunge continued…

Production lags behind rig count, and while rig count for gas wells has been setting new decade lows, production has been rising month after month to new record highs. But lagging doesn’t mean decoupled. And someday…. Oops, it already happened. It has started. Production has turned the corner, and not just in one field, but across the US.

 

Its still just a little notch in the curve. But its a sign that the collapse in rig count is translating into lower production numbers. And when the steep decline rates are beginning to overlap the drop in rig count, production will head south in a dizzying trajectory.

Money has been thrown at the industry, but the notion is dawning that the game is up and that returns will never materialize. The ponzi scheme has reached its natural limit, and investors are waking up to the realization that they have been chasing a fantasy.

Ironically, just as the washout begins, natural gas prices may have bottomed. Conventional natural gas in North America peaked in 2001. Coal bed methane and now shale gas have been revealed to be massively overblown as an energy source. Producers are reaping the consequences of malinvestment and will be going out of business. Demand has been building with the transition from coal to natural gas for power generation. This is an ideal set up for a supply collapse and subsequent price spike.

North America is poised for a huge natural gas shock. Far from being an exporter, North America is going to experience a natural gas supply crunch. Prices will be rising at the same time as peoples purchasing power falls precipitously, thanks to deflation. The structural dependency on natural gas that has been cemented in recent years is going to guarantee maximum pain as prices reconnect with reality.

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109 Comments
Muck About
Muck About
June 24, 2012 12:36 pm

I’ve got short and intermediate term buys on UNG this week. Maybe Nat. Gas has bottomed but I’ll wait and watch a bit longer before committing funds.. Right now it only good for trading.

MA

SSS
SSS
June 24, 2012 1:04 pm

This article falls squarely in the “So What” column. The money involved is PRIVATE VENTURE CAPITAL. If the whole venture collapses like a house of cards, as the article predicts it will over and over again ad naseum, it won’t cost YOU a fucking penny, meaning no government tax dollars thown at yet another failed “Government Picks the Winners” program, a la Solyndra.

I’m changing my mind. It’s not a “So What” article. It’s a piece of anti-capitalist bullshit.

SSS
SSS
June 24, 2012 2:31 pm

Before I lay into Admin with a two-by-four, I googled “steaming pile of shit” to go with my comments directed at Admin. I stumbled on this photo.

[imgcomment image[/img]

This tattoo on a girl’s back comes with this story. Seems she was the girlfriend of a tattoo artist and was cheating on him with his best friend. He found out about it, but played it cool and got her to agree to a tattoo on her back from the movie Narnia. He then plied her with shots of tequila and wine and proceeded to put this tattoo on her back. Too funny. She’s suing him.

Colma Rising
Colma Rising
June 24, 2012 2:49 pm

What’s better….

That or tire tracks?

SSS
SSS
June 24, 2012 3:02 pm

Admin

You ignorant slut. You said, “PA alone has thrown billions of taxpayer dollars at the gas industry with tax incentives, breaks, and credits.” Bullshit. Show me one penny, just one penny, that has come out of the PA treasury and sent to the natural gas industry. EVERYONE who drills for gas and oil get the tax breaks you describe, at both the federal AND state levels. Why do governments do that? Because the revenue they expect to GAIN exceeds the tax breaks they are granting, such as gains on wages/salaries of the new jobs, gains on sales taxes, taxes on royalties paid, etc. If the whole venture collapses, then the state will STILL get some revenue because of the economic activity created before the collapse.

Your penchant for false hyperbole is breathtaking, such as “the promise of endless jobs.” Show me one instance, just one, where the gas drillers promised endless jobs. You can’t, because it never happened. No one in his right mind would ever make a promise of endless jobs, except maybe you.

You also said, “When this boom goes bust, there will be putrid pools of toxic slime left, thousands of jobs lost, and the taxpayer left on the hook. Fucked again by the corporate fascist state.” More bullshit, more blathering hyperbole. Every oil and gas well plays out sooner or later. 100%. No exceptions. And everyone knows that, except maybe you. When the well goes dry, jobs will be lost. Period. Happens all the fucking time.

As for your bullshit “putrid pools of toxic slime left” and “the taxpayer left on the hook” statements, prove it. Show the readers here where the drilling contracts read, “any pools of toxic slime left will be cleaned up on the Pennsylvania taxpayer’s dime.” Can you do that, please, Mr. Charter Member of The Wilderness Society and Super Secret Admirer of The Sierra Club? Thank you.

SSS
SSS
June 24, 2012 3:04 pm

Colma

I think the flies going around the pile of shit add a nice touch to the tattoo.

SSS
SSS
June 24, 2012 3:20 pm

Admin

Heads up. I just got a call from a famous Hollywood producer, who asked to remain anonymous. He wants to make a movie entitled “Epic Beatdown, The Sequel.”

Kill Bill
Kill Bill
June 24, 2012 3:23 pm

I wonder what he tattooed on his best friends back.

SSS
SSS
June 24, 2012 3:25 pm

Actual photo of a copper mine in Admin’s backyard. No wonder he’s pissed.

[img]http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcS3WOT9xmW_gbttD3AUiRQY3tTQSxbHnOTIMa1DMPhd4uOdSp6ywA[/img]

Colma Rising
Colma Rising
June 24, 2012 3:35 pm

I was wondering when the opening salvos would escalate.

After pausing from some fine literature, Administrator flanks with the groundwater question.

Undoubtedly, SSS will impeach the accusers…

Colma Rising
Colma Rising
June 24, 2012 3:42 pm

After nap-time, of course….

Kill Bill
Kill Bill
June 24, 2012 3:48 pm

[imgcomment image?w=610[/img]
Someone bring the beer and hot wings this is going to be interesting!

Colma Rising
Colma Rising
June 24, 2012 4:05 pm

[imgcomment image[/img]

Fluid?

SSS
SSS
June 24, 2012 4:19 pm

Admin spews hysterical, flash-length articles to logjam the thread and changes the subject to water. Four homes with contaminated water ………. not 4 million or 4 thousand or 4 hundred or even 40, just 4 …….. and the fucking EPA steps in and Admin goes into orbit.

You know what that article tells me, Admin. That you are the classic worshipper of a fart in a hurricane. Otherwise, that article doesn’t mean jackshit. Same goes for the next article about some chemical which may have gotten into a creek. Another fart in a hurricane. Oh, the goddamn horror. Did the EPA call for an emergency evacuation of Pittsburgh, Admin? Well, did it?

Now, then, I await your brutal refutation of my initial remarks above about your misleading statements on PA “throwing billions of taxpayer dollars” at the natural gas industry, which you claim will leave pools of taxic waste behind after the wells play out. Try and focus this time.

A Real American
A Real American
June 24, 2012 4:23 pm

[imgcomment image[/img]

A Real American
A Real American
June 24, 2012 4:25 pm

This guy drank some fraking water. Dangerous stuff

[imgcomment image[/img]

Can we all play along?

Colma Rising
Colma Rising
June 24, 2012 4:35 pm

[imgcomment image[/img]

[imgcomment image[/img]

ThePessimisticChemist
ThePessimisticChemist
June 24, 2012 4:37 pm

The jobs promises have been mostly through the MSM, not official statements by the industry itself.

At least, thats my take on it.

As for the danger of fracking fluids, its true that the amount of damage we are aware of isn’t exactly massive, however I KNOW what those chemicals are, and I KNOW the precautions we have to take when handling them in the research lab.

Its a laundry list of things that can kill you slow, fast or horribly. Not only that, but a large number of them are very stable and can reside in the fat of an animal or the soil/water of an area for a long damned time.

They use those chemicals because they are cheaper than the alternatives, and they usually do so while following relatively stringent guidelines laid down by the EPA. The research we have shows that this is “good enough” however it is fairly unsustainable as there are better uses for those chemicals than fracking with them. With the world’s oil supplies drying up its the responsibility of the world’s chemists to find cheap, green alternatives to current crude oil fractioned chemicals, but since those new chemicals haven’t been discovered/created yet we need to pull our heads out of our asses and stop wasting stuff.

@SSS –

My understanding of the tax breaks thing is as you described, however I see the Admin’s point as they are breaking their promise to the state/country to not only produce energy, but also tax revenue. As it is right now they get tax breaks to lose money. Leave the taxes as-is, and it will drive out the noncompetitors which would hopefully start letting prices rise.

Every time the government steps in to “fix” markets they mess everything up. I expect them to provide regulations and guidelines for everyone to play together, but when they start dictating who wins and who loses the whole thing goes to hell in a handbasket.

Anonymous
Anonymous
June 24, 2012 4:44 pm

You going to let these curs play the violin for some isolated instances, SSS?

Colma Rising
Colma Rising
June 24, 2012 4:46 pm

^^^^^^^

Colma @ 4:44

DaveL
DaveL
June 24, 2012 4:49 pm

Admin: “Cordially Admin sitting on the deck drinking a spiked Arnold Palmer and reading Starship Troopers.”

Is that the story about bug planets?

This thread is giving me gas.

SSS
SSS
June 24, 2012 4:49 pm

Admin

Pot calls kettle black. If there’s a government drone mentality in this discussion, it belongs to you, not me. You’re the one posting articles relying on government agencies such as the EPA to bolster your argument, not me.

And as for that link you posted relating to the Marcellus Shale activity, you know what I saw, instead of your Chicken Little pictures of pools of toxic waste? I saw private sector economic activity. Lots of it. People sitting on heavy earth moving equipment and building impoundment ponds and drawing a solid paycheck for their labor and paying taxes THAT WEREN’T THERE BEFORE THE DISCOVERY OF NATURAL GAS DEPOSITS IN THE AREA. And I saw farms around those impoundment ponds that are paying fat taxes on their royalty checks THAT WEREN’T THERE BEFORE THE DISCOVERY OF NATURAL GAS DEPOSITS ON THEIR FARMS. That’s what I saw.

So you go right ahead with your specious, hollow, misleading arguments. All mining activity carries a degree of risk to the miners (and investors) and some damage to the environment. Everyone knows that. You seem to be negatively smitten with this particular activity which will greatly benefit one of the poorest areas of PA. Strange.

Colma Rising
Colma Rising
June 24, 2012 4:57 pm

Seeming to be surrounded, relentless artillery punding away, SSS shows up behind the lines with a shell of his own…

Thinking that perhaps DaveL would assist his fellow Tweener, we are instead privy to a comment on leisurely reading material…

ThePessimisticChemist
ThePessimisticChemist
June 24, 2012 5:02 pm

@SSS –

I fear that the short term monetary gains the populace reaps from said drilling will in no way offset the longterm damage done to the environment.

My former boss and mentor worked in a contract lab in Colorado where he provided third party analysis for impoundment ponds as well as other sources. I’m getting my information from him, as well as from my own personal research and experience.

The dangers are real, the benefits aren’t worth it. If people were free thinking and capable of looking at the long term they would laugh in the face of these “quick bucks”. The companies are just playing off of the FSA mindset that our corporations and country have tried so hard to instill in all of us.

Colma Rising
Colma Rising
June 24, 2012 5:29 pm

It must be naptime again.

For Admin AND SSS.

SSS
SSS
June 24, 2012 5:46 pm

[imgcomment image[/img]

Strip mine (coal) in West Virginia. Worth it or not, TPC? Yes or no. It’s already displaced some people who lived nearby, will produce 5-8 BILLION gallons of toxic coal sludge, sits on top of some abandoned coal shafts and upstream from the town of Whitesville, where many of the miners undoubtedly live. I ask you again. Worth it? Yes or no.

SSS
SSS
June 24, 2012 5:49 pm

Colma

After the thrashing I gave him, Admin drank himself into a stupor and passed out. Now, if you’ll excuse, I’m about to put a severe whoopin’ on that impertinent interluder, The Pessimistic Chemist.

ThePessimisticChemist
ThePessimisticChemist
June 24, 2012 6:01 pm

My current opinion: probably not. That being said MY post was referring to natural gas production and fracking in particular, NOT coal.

I see your attempt to change the topic to coal and counter with “Boomers did it.”

Advance warning: My next move is to claim Zionist Conspiracy!

SSS
SSS
June 24, 2012 6:11 pm

“I fear that the short term monetary gains the populace reaps from said drilling will in no way offset the longterm damage done to the environment.”
—-The Pessimistic Chemist

What a crock of shit. Let’s turn to another valuable product from the Earth: timber. Did the companies which clear-cut old growth forests to build everything from houses to ships do any damage to the environment? You bet they did. They didn’t replant trees, and some pretty severe soil erosion set in which rendered the area rather useless for decades. Was it done for short term (whatever that means) monetary gain? Fucking A Tweety it was.

Now we know better and do things smarter to the point that there is more forested area in the U.S. today than there was 200 years ago. Maybe the fracking process could be done more safely. I don’t know. But I do know that our increasing demand for natural gas, particularly in the exploding number of natural gas power plants being built, needs to be met. What better way to do it than right here in this country, where the jobs created stay right here. And it’s being done by the private sector, not some phony government bureaucracy in Harrisburg or DC.

Colma Rising
Colma Rising
June 24, 2012 6:13 pm

Very well. I shall take a nap of my own in hopes that I can move at work tomorrow…

A summertime bug hit me like a Brinks truck Friday night….

Perhaps the fever will produce dreams of a government of realistic and a Scientific Theory of Morals, franchise to any and all who dare put themselves in harms way first, where business and life are left alone so much as it does not interfere with society’s survival, and criminals like sandusky, corrupt officials and unruly miscreants are given proper corporal punishment…. All following the collapse of a well-meaning but foolhardy freebee society demolished by war with the Chinese Hegemony.

Or it’s just bug planets.

I expect to return to a classic TBP brawl wherein TPC survives a tangle with a Big Dog, his senses honed and his argument sharpened.

AWD
AWD
June 24, 2012 6:23 pm

Colmes:

I’ll send you some medicine through the server. Don’t cost much.

Watching this argument is like watching two 85 y.o. men trying to piss through prostates the size of a grapefruit. Takes forever, and not much comes out. Entertaining all the same.

Needs more insults

[imgcomment image[/img]

ThePessimisticChemist
ThePessimisticChemist
June 24, 2012 6:33 pm

What a crock of shit. Let’s turn to another valuable product from the Earth: timber. Did the companies which clear-cut old growth forests to build everything from houses to ships do any damage to the environment? You bet they did. They didn’t replant trees, and some pretty severe soil erosion set in which rendered the area rather useless for decades. Was it done for short term (whatever that means) monetary gain? Fucking A Tweety it was.
===================================

Timber grows back. Soil piles up in other areas. Coal dumps lots of toxic compounds into the ecosystem that were previously sequestered in borderline harmless black rocks under ground.

Different levels of harm to the environment. The fact that you lump things together like this means we can’t really discuss one at length. I discuss gas, you bring up coal. I (briefly) address coal, and you switch to timber. You don’t seem to have a lot of confidence in your position.

Each industry is very, very different. I’m sorry you can’t distinguish between them all. Here, I’ll help:

Here is a piece of coal!
[imgcomment image[/img]

Here is a tree!

[imgcomment image[/img]

And, some natural gas!
[imgcomment image?w=300[/img]

Colma – I expect to return to a classic TBP brawl wherein TPC survives a tangle with a Big Dog, his senses honed and his argument sharpened.

A big dog? His bark is loud, but his bite is missing teeth.

Anonymous
Anonymous
June 24, 2012 6:50 pm

Unfortunately I cant stay to play, real life calls.

Have fun all!

-TPC

SSS
SSS
June 24, 2012 6:56 pm

“Mines are located in the middle of nowhere far away from people’s homes.”
—-Admin

Just when I thought Admin couldn’t say anything more stupid, he proves me wrong. For over a century, when a valuable deposit of a mineral is found, regardless of where it is, people MOVE to where that mineral is and build a town. Ever heard of Bisbee, Arizona, Admin? San Manuel? Ajo? Just three of many towns that sit right next to a copper mine (open pit, by the way) in this state. How about Wallace, Idaho or Leadville, Colorado. Right next to silver, lead, and molybdenum mines. None of these towns were there BEFORE those minerals were found.

As to your comment about the mining companies buying the land, why should they? Much cheaper to buy the mineral rights from the landowner and pay a royalty, isn’t it? You do know something about keeping costs down, don’t you, Mr. Ikea?

Just to infuriate you even more about costs, read the federal government’s Mining Act of 1872, which is still in force. It gives mining companies the right to extract minerals from “The People’s” property, ie. federally owned lands. Nowadays, mining companies have to jump through a myriad of hoops created by the EPA, but once they get the green light, those minerals belong to the evil mining companies. Billions and billions have gone into private, evil coffers that way. I bet you are just tickled pink, aren’t you?

This is not going well for you, Admin. In one sense, it’s downright sad. Yet in another, I’m flush with the feeling of overwhelming victory.

Llpoh
Llpoh
June 24, 2012 6:57 pm

Damn – the Admin has morphed into Flash. A cut-and-paste addiction is a terrible thing to watch develop. Admin, we will arrange an intervention. I only hope it isn’t too late.

SSS
SSS
June 24, 2012 7:09 pm

TPC posts a picture the size of a highway billboard and then exits stage left. Good riddance.

Admin posts an article the length of which would give flash an orgasm. Sheesh. No wonder you try to stick to what someone else has written. Everything that reflects your personal knowledge and opinions on the subject of mining comes across as silly, just plain silly. But I’ll read the fucking “War and Peace” treatise anyway.

llpoh
llpoh
June 24, 2012 7:24 pm

Admin – don’t make me get involved. You wouldn’t like it. It is already an uneven fight what with SSS spanking you like a poor step-child. And here I was voicing concern about your recently acquired cut-and-past addiction, and you gotta start posting cartoons. I may have to revise my diagnosis from cut-and-paste addiction to early onset dementia.

dilligaf
dilligaf
June 24, 2012 7:31 pm

no, this bust should be a doozy…

[imgcomment image[/img]

sensetti
sensetti
June 24, 2012 7:47 pm

TPC
It’s my understanding the fracking fluids are proprietary information. What chemicals do they use in this process
Fracking Fluid – A mixture of water, sand and proprietary chemicals are injected into the ground during oil and gas drilling operations. The exact ingredients that are employed by companies involved have not been officially disclosed and due to exemptions enjoyed by drilling companies (e.g. the “Halliburton Loophole”), the ingredients remain proprietary and are not subject to regulation by agencies such as the EPA. Independent testing has been done on fracking fluids, however. The Endocrine Disruption Exchange, a non-profit organization headed by Dr. Theo Colborne, has identified 649 chemicals recovered from drilling operations, including Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs), Neurotoxicants, and other dangerous chemicals which are heavily regulated when used in most other capacities.

llpoh
llpoh
June 24, 2012 7:56 pm

Admin considering his options:

[imgcomment image[/img]

Admin
Admin
June 24, 2012 7:59 pm

Oh no -SSS AND LLPOH!

[imgcomment image[/img]

llpoh
llpoh
June 24, 2012 8:09 pm

Admin now able to cure diaper rash and prevent jock itch:

[imgcomment image[/img]

llpoh
llpoh
June 24, 2012 8:11 pm

Admin after our last encounter:

[img]http://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/resources/images/830024/?type=display[/img]