Two years ago, The Great Smokey and I told y’all that Obama would win. We were hooted at and derided. We of course won those battles, but were somewhat stunned that so few of the smart folks on TBP could read the tea leaves. This stupidity continued unabated right up until the instant of the election – many otherwise very smart folks (come on out and issue the requisite mea culpas, y’all) were calling the election for Romney in spite of all evidence to the contrary.
So, just how did Smokey and I know this would happen? Well, first and foremost, we are mental giants, and have the ability to synthesize complex issues down and reach accurate conclusions. But just so you know, here are some of the basic issues that lead us to our position:
– Blacks account for 12% of the population, and 99.99% would vote for Obama. The remainder – 0.01 per cent – hit the wrong button.
– Hispanics would vote in large numbers in favour of Obama, given the general position of the Republicans to pitch their countrymen out of the country, and to otherwise make their lives difficult. In fact, they turned out in record numbers and voted around 80% for Obama
– The Free Shit Army would vote en masse for Obama – they include 1 and 2 above, plus all of the other hangers on. This Army includes those on SSDI and those that are fully SS dependent, those on unemployment, those on Food Stamps, etc.
– Government drones and unionists (an overlapping group) would vote en masse for Obama
– Women would vote for Obama, given the Republicans penchant for putting up candidates that were radically far right and vocally anti-abortion, and who wanted to see Rowe v Wade overturned. This was a loser.
– The Republicans would surely field candidates who were total idiots. And indeed they did, starting with Romney, and working their way down to the far-right nutjobs who were incapable of keeping their mouths shut. Their comments about rape, etc, went down like lead balloons. We knew the Republics would commit errors one after the other – selecting a presidential candidate that would not release his tax returns, etc etc etc. Ad nauseum examples exist.
– The Republicans were unable to cease their neocon bullshit, and so could not position themselves for centrist votes on this issue.
– We knew the MSM would seize on every mistake and every ridiculous comment and blow it out of all proportion – and they did. This was a huge help to Obama.
So, being great thinkers, Smokey and I looked at these things, and determined Obama would win, despite being arguably the worst president in US history. In hindsight, those that argued against us must be saying, “damn, it really was easy to see. How could I have been such an idiot?”.
And here is my forward prediction: the Republicans will likely be able to hold onto Congress for the full four years (if they lose Congress, watch Obama go nuts before he exits stage left, leaving behind a ruins of monumental proportion). I expect serious degeneration to the economic position of the country over the next 4 years, and I expect to see the Free Shit Army grow unabated. I expect to see the demographics continue to shift in favour of the Democrats – especially an increase in Hispanics, who are now dyed in the wool Democrats. I expect to see capital pour out of the country, and to see laws implemented to try to keep it in the US, which in itself will have catastrophic results (who will invest here if they money is effectively frozen?). I expect to see the very rich abandon ship at every opportunity. I expect to see small businesses continue to fold by the millions. I expect to see unemployment rise given the planned tax hikes and the flight of capital and the capitulation of the “rich”. I expect to see the US implement the highest tax rates in the world. I expect to see the “rich” of California take flight to avoid the impact of proposition 30. I expect the stock market to fall markedly as capital flees, and I see inflation accelerating.
And most of all, unless the Republicans can move severely to the center and can come up with candidates that overwhelmingly are more to the center, I expect to see the Democrats continue to win the presidency, with Hillary Clinton most likely to be the next president.
Don’t like these predictions? Me either. I do not predict what I want to see, but rather I predict what I expect to see, based on the information that is out there if one but looks around. Y’all need to take off the blinders when making predictions. Wanting is not the same thing as getting.
Smokey, wherever you are, we were right. I know it is no surprise to you. I drank a toast to you last night, and wish you well. You and I can bask in the knowledge that …..
WE WERE RIGHT, BITCHEZ!
The Mayor of Crestwood applauds you.
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LLPOH’s victory dance
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Admin-
Do you have a file folder called “Appropriate Images and Gifts for All Responses”? The speed at which you post relevant and funny shit is admirable.
Micro-Be
It’s a gift. That is why this blog has made me a wealthy man. Did you know I raked in $200 last month with only 463,000 visitors? That is hard to do.
Smokey is probably celebrating with a hot Hispanic (or two – he loves hot Hispanics):
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Just what the hell do you consider “the center” to be?
With one party advocating suicidal spending and the other advocating double suicidal spending what direction, praytell, does one move to get to the center of that.
You had a 50% chance of guessing right (even though your reasoning is dead on – the FSA is too huge now)
So what do you propose republicans do – triple free shit for everybody?
Good logic. I agree with it.
With regards to ‘center’.
Two wrongs do not make a right. Politicians frequently hold ideals at opposite ends of the conservative and liberal spectrum, they should not be averaged together. Treat the issues separately, and deride them for their stupidity.
The best example is Obama. Loves foreign wars, even more than Cheney. He also has expanded food stamps and social welfare to a ridiculous extent. One issue is far right, the other far left.
The best candidate is the one who advocates the smallest possible federal government involvement in states and individual rights.
Legalize marijuana federally. If states don’t like it, make THEM declare it illegal.
I don’t like abortion. That being said, it should be up to the damned state to decide its legality. These mandates from on high have got to stop.
To Everyone Who Is Annoyed At llpoh’s Gigantic Head (the one on his shoulders);
I am going through the TBP archives and will document all the times that llpoh has been wrong. I will post the results when I am done. There are so many instances that I won’t be done for about 6 months. Be patient.
@Stucky
*laughs* – oooh – I can see a giant shitstorm a-brewing!
I appreciate a good gloat, especially when it’s deserved.
Dorkus – let me welcome you, you ignorant slut.
First, I am not advocating for Republicans, although I do vastly perfer them to Dems. I am simply stating the case that in order to be elected, they will have to move toward the center. If you do not understand what that is, you are more of a moron than your post indicates.
Second, this was not a fifty-fifty fucking guess – it was resoned and thought out. Smokey and I stuck our necks out when hardly a living soul believed it, at least on this site. And we laid out the reasons, as per the above, and we did it 2 years ago, and we did it publicly, and we did it consistently. Fifty fifty my ass. Why don’t you learn a bit about what goes on here before you start talking shit. Dorkus maximus fits you to a fucking T,.
LLPOH: Kudos, champ. You know the drill…
From August 1st, comment hidden because people don’t like to hear the facts and knee-jerks can’t fathom that running a candidate because “He’s NOT the other guy” is a passive approach, and rarely works:
“I won’t beat around the bush….
People need to read up on current Electoral College rules.
Your vote will likely not matter for that reason alone.
The Constitution never intended for it to. The Founders realized that most people were in need of a helmet and a bib, not the ability to directly elect the president.
That being said, Barack Hussein Obama will win.
Mitt is extremely likely to say something so moronic, so retarded, that even the window-licking masses who would cast a vote for either of these gutless draft-dodgers will be repulsed.
I stake my reputation as a mild-mannered, soft-spoken feminist on it.”
-Colma Rising, who is always right (in the long run).
Lo and behold…. the moron mouths off and the video is played endlessly. Newsflash: When most people, not just the “47%”, as LLPOH says, have anything but the hard-line Malthusian worldview, a cocky vulture fund poster boy will not only raise eyebrows but lose precious independent votes.
Only a more aggressive campaign with a less hammy candidate with more creative campaign management had a chance…. maybe…. but that was not in the cards.
Odds are odds. Odds are that government intervention is an expectation in the U.S. and, frankly, the world.
There is no frontier, now go cry in your pillows
LLPOH
1. Pick a park with plenty of open space. Then, pick an appropriate day and time when you and I can meet at said park.
2. We will meet in the center of the open space, back-to-back, and step off 10 paces at my command.
3. At the count of 10, we will turn and face each other. You will drop your drawers, and I will reach into a box of fresh Dunkin Doughnuts.
4. When I say “GO,” I will roll one of the doughnuts on the ground, and you are hereby cordially invited to ………
TAKE A FLYING FUCK AT A ROLLING DOUGHNUT.
Stucky – I never lose. I just run out of time on occassion.
But re predictions, you will not find too many where I was wrong. Why I still recall calling bullshit on Admin’s timing of war in the middle east, for example. I think he has selctive memory loss on that one. I was pretty right re Japan returning to work after the tsunami (kicked RE’s ass there).
SSS – now, that is not nice. Not nice at all. You called me “wrong”, as I remember. Not that you disagreed – you flat out stated I was wrong. I was minorly offended, given I hold you in high regard. I guess it is too much to expect that you would follow-up that comment with, gee, LLPOH, guess I had that wrong.
SSS, don’t dish it out if you cannot take it. You dished it, and I remember. And so now I happily point out that 1) you were in fact wrong, and 2) you could have been a bit more graceful in the way you said it.
Putting Romney/Biden up for election was a sure to get a loser just as they did with McCain and Palin.
Also their insistence on staying in bed with ‘the crazies’ doesnt help. They should have ditched the neo-cons [And Rove FTM]
The evangelicals and fundamentalists wont vote for a muslim or a mormon. They pretty much stayed home no matter that Billy Graham backed Rmoney.
Wall street hedged its bet and won again.
I truly believe that the only way for the Uglicans to salvage a national vote is with a Combat Veteran…. preferably a line officer (for the college education at least) and not the ivy-league MBA white-teeth type. (That’s not a stab, LLPOH, just the situation and you know its true)
If shit gets as bad as anyone thinks, that will be a winning ticket.
Bank on it.
Its not that Obama won. Its that the GOP worked very hard and paid alot of money to lose.
Im sure Justice Scalia is now regaling in his Citizens United decision.
I meant to write Romney/Ryan above but since I figure there is little difference between Obama/Biden its more of a Freudian thing.
Sue me.
LLPOH
If you think what I wrote above isn’t very nice, you should have seen me as a kid playing in a sandbox with other kids. Eyewitnesses thereby coined the term, “Doesn’t play well with others.”
llpoh
I was just having fun with you. Yes, you were correct, and I was wrong. I bow down to your widom, foresight, and superior analytical thinking. There aren’t two people in all the CIA as smart as you. If you want me to blow you I’ll do so at your command.
I smell a doppel.
Friend of mine I served with has talked about how so many people think us GWOT era veterans are crazy (PTSD and what not). Colma I agree with you, but the eternal conspiracy theorist within me thinks that us vets have been set up from the beginning. If s/he weren’t a combat veteran they would probably be grilled for that (for the record I am not a combat vet, just a regular one).
SSS – we are cool. Totally. You are the man. That said, a little friendly fire between giants is unavoidable at times – what would this place be without it? And the masses love nothing so much as a brawl between titans.
And I do so love to gloat. It is a character flaw, I know. But damn, I enjoy it.
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It was Stucky. Doppleganging went down 98% while he was making cabbage soup.
Stuck
It’s not nice to dopplegang the Admin.
Yep you guys were right. You wanna contemplate something really laughable? For years, the MSM, Repub candidates, talking heads and the like have been beating down the throats of the pliable sheep “RON PAUL IS UNELECTABLE….RON PAUL IS UNELECTABLE….RONPAULISUNELECTABLE.”
Yeah you fucks, good thing you nominated Romney/Ryan. Two pole smokers who couldn’t even win their home states. FUCK THE MSMFEDERALGOVERNMENTWALLSTREETMILITARYINDUSTRIALCOMPLEX in it’s collective bungholes.
C30 – I do not know if RP is unelectable. But I knew he would not be elected. The major powers – both left and right – made sure of it. I have no idea how he would have gone if it had been him and not Romney on the ballot. I expect the same result would have happened – the FSA would have went into meltdown at the thought of losing their free shit.
LLPOOH
“lean dem” =”lean stupid” its nothing to brag about.
R’s and D’s both suck – but D’s suck way more.
it’s like bragging about being a nazi.
Actually republicans had virtually no chance just out of narrative issues. The Democrats secret weapon is The Smooth Operator and The Dork. If you have a Smooth Operator Prez and a Dork it’s the winning 1 2 punch. The Republicans lost their secret weapon, which was The Cartoon and the Shadowman which I think only works for NeoCon style Republicans. Because we never saw the two optimal styles compete, I’m not sure which is stronger.
However, what will never work is what republicans have tried to do for the last two elections, which is the Moronic Statesman and the Goofy Zealot. The Statesman doesn’t have the necessary charisma, the Zealot is usually percieved as both stupid and hamfisted. The republicans need to have a new character type if they ever intend to win an election again.
Dorkus – I do not understand your post. As I have said, I do not support either, but see Rs somewhat less evil than Ds. But neither party has the guts to address the ills.
Wow – $200 / 463,000 = 0.000431965 per user. ADMIN – IT IS PLAIN TO SEE YOU NEED MORE VISITORS
He cheated. This was not a legit election. The numbers just don’t add up. The FSA, ,minorities, college kids, Jews, all voted with their feet firmly planted on the sofa.
This is not sour grapes or delusional. I’m telling ya – the results do not add up. Something is seriously wrong.
SSS I advise you not put a picture of Salmas cleavage on that doughnut.
You picked the right candidate who cares. Romney = Obama.
I miss reading Smokes.
SSS – please put a pic of Salma’s puppies on that donut. I will have plenty of company as I make a run at that donut. Oliver Stone will be there:
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I give up. SSS has obviously banned me from being able to post pics of Salmas bazoombas.
I’m not saying anything any other of the members here don’t know but this election really DOES show how America has changed attitudinally. I believe it began with the sixties movement and the beginning of moral relativism and the deconstruction of institutions. Deconstruction is fine if you have something to replace but that was never offered. It was deconstruction for deconstruction’s sake. Anyway…. we’ve heard a lot about how the Republicans have a war against women. I’ve come to one conclusion; women, in particular single woman believe they have their liberty if they can have an abortion and men think they have their freedom if they can watch unfettered porno. I really think it’s that simplistic. That’s how a lot of people think.
OKAY, Fine. Give me a thumbs down. Right now, the cheese stands alone. I am telling you I know Obama stuffed the ballot box, especially in Ohio. But results in all states are suspect.
The Republicans allowed the Dem/Marxists to vote early and often in Cleveland. Blacks threatened to riot if Obama lost, so the Dems were allowed to bus in homeless, union members, regular cast of characters to stuff the ballot boxes in early voting. We heard about this from people on the ground in Ohio. Everybody knew, and nothing was done to stop it.
That is how Romney lost Ohio.
It doesn’t matter if you supported Romney or not. This was not a legitimate election. The results do not add up.
It’s going to take several days to analyze all the numbers – really drill down into each precinct and county. There is something seriously wrong here. It won’t change the results, but the truth will surface in alt media. Stay tuned.
OK, Llpoh, if you are so smart can you predict who will win Dancing with the Stars, in two years?
Huh? Huh? Yeah, didn’t think so BITCHEZ! Or would that be BITCHE?
Anyway, fantastic post. I am learning that the big dogs here are far more intelligent and insightful then, then, then…..just about everybody out there.
TBP rules! Until the government shuts it down……………
Card – have looked into the chrystal ball and the winner will be ME!!!! Here I am practicing:
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SSS & LLPOH:
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Newsjunkie wins best post award. Damn, that is funny!
LLPOH
Your prediction for the future is dead on.
Congrats, America is changed forever through diversity.
Mary Malone
I did say Romney could beat the fraud factor.
ILLUMINATI GOES PUBLIC WITH NWO!! MUST SEE!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=42N6LrEpPyI&feature=endscreen
LLPOH, we look at batting averages not home runs. Smokey could never quite understand this when it came to football picks.