Yojimbo, one of the original TBP Wise Men, asked me a question about what do I think young people should target as careers. I have spent a great deal of time thinking about this as my kids are entering young adulthood, and I hope their lives are not ones of endless struggle. I am not sure I have an answer for Yojimbo that is anything other than a generic guess, and a wild guess at that, but I will do my best, and I will try to reflect in this article what I have told my kids, and what I believe in general.
I believe that the economic position of the US relative to the rest of the world is going to fall – dramatically. I have previously stated that I do not believe it is possible for 5% of the world’s population to continue to consume 25% of the world’s resources. It simply will not continue. Either the entire world will consume many times more than it does – which will not happen – or the US will consume relatively less. I believe that the US, if it is lucky, may be able to consume perhaps 10 to 15% of the resources, going forward. So in that scenario, standard of living is likely to fall to 40 to 60% of its current position. That will be an unpleasant experience for most.
I believe that the US “middle class” institution is an unsustainable and unrealistic ideal. That hundreds of millions of people can live, by world standards, affluent lifestyles while possessing mediocre intelligence, skills, education and work-ethic is an unrealistic expectation. World competition will see that that scenario does not continue.
I also see the “distribution of wealth” commentary as false. Wealth will continue to accumulate in very few hands. Attempts to prevent it will be destructive – to penalize the best, brightest, and most hard-working in order to benefit the least, dullest, and laziest will have negative affect. That is not to say that steps should be made to prevent a system where upward mobility becomes entirely impossible – in other words, hereditary and class systems need to be dealt with in order to prevent wealth from accumulating via hereditary and class stucture. I believe the nature of skill, ability, work-ethic, etc. will ensure that a huge disparity of wealth exists. The simple fact is that people of average intelligence, skill, and ability or even those at the 80 or 90% mark, are vastly less able than those at the 99% level. The difference is extreme and is marked. People in the top 1% of intelligence are simply capable of reasoning far beyond someone just cracking the top 10%. And if those folks are also hard-working and well-skilled and trained, then they will be vastly more successful in general. And it will not even be close.
I recently went on a tour around a large part of Europe, where I saw unemployment rates for young adults consistently around the 50% level. And that included highly educated individuals. Many of these individuals had targeted careers in what had previously been the blue-chip government sector. Those jobs are no longer available. Nor are law positions, engineering positions, and especially university teaching positions, or positions relating to “liberal studies”. And the European kids do not know what else to do – they are accustomed to a welfare state lifestyle. The ones I spoke to talked bout moving to the welfare states offering the best benefits. Imagine that. Cannot get a job in your own welfare state, so you move to another welfare state where you cannot get a job, but where welfare pays better. Imagine the joy those states will feel, and how long that will last.
So, all of this is just background to what I believe young people should do. What I believe is that the young should not focus on “careers” but rather on skills and abilities and education – the right type of education. They should come to understand what hard-work is, and they should become extremely versatile individuals. They should be part country boy/girl and part computer geek.
– they should take up manual jobs at a reasonably early age, so that they become accustomed to hard-work.
– they should work their way through college so as to avoid education debt, if their parents cannot fully fund college.
– they should study computers, science, mathematics, and have a good English education. In other words, they need to be well educated in the 3 Rs, augmented by science and computer science.
– they need to understand that in order to thrive, they are going to have to compete ruthlessly against not only their countrymen and women, but against the population of the world. They need to understand that only the most capable, most hard-working, most prepared, and most versatile will do well in the coming economy.
– they need to learn fiscal responsibility, and avoid debt at all costs. Instant gratification is something they need to avoid their entire lives.
– they need to ensure that they keep up with technological developments. By this, I do not mean they need to buy every new igadget. I mean they need to understand and keep abreast of what cloud computing is, what 3D printing is and how it may impact business, etc. They need to know not just how to use products, but what tech drives the products.
– I think they need to abandon the idea that they need “a job”. They do not need a job – they need to support themselves. A job is just one way. Their own business is another – as a small business person, an independent contractor, etc. I cringe when folks talk about there being no “jobs”. That is a very limited view of making a living.
– They need to keep their personal lives clean. By that I mean they need to keep out of debt, off drugs, etc. They need to align themselves with people that are hard-working and goal-oriented. Perhaps most importantly they need to find/choose spouses that are on the same page – hard-working, thrifty, dedicated, and versatile. Failure to do this will be disastrous.
As for careers that may be good choices – I do not know. I used to think that medical careers would be stable, but I no longer think that. I think that there will be new jobs/careers coming, but those jobs will require versatile people with excellent tech and communication skills.
And so, in sum, what I think is that in order to have the best chance, young people need to abandon the idea that they are entitled and that life is and should be comfortable. They need to embrace competition, and they need to educate and skill themselves in tech and traditional math, science, and English. I think that they should become accustomed to hard physical work, as there are times that may be required. I believe that skills and abilities will be more useful than choice of career.
As an aside, Yojimbo asked about apprenticeships. Personally, I believe that they will not be especially beneficial. They will provide certain skills, but most will lack much tech (ie computer) training, and a breadth of education/skills will not be available through apprenticeships. Looking at the “old style” apprenticeships – pattern and tool making, auto mechanics, fitter and turners, etc. – many have disappeared or are disappearing. I think that carpenters/plumbers/electricians will still be needed, but I think opportunities may be limited. But I may be wrong.
So, in summary, I believe that young folks need to acquire the mindset of those that lived in the Great Depression – willing to do whatever it takes to survive – augmented by very high skills in math, science, English and tech. And they need to be ruthless competitors – only the most capable will thrive in the coming economy.
I know this is all pretty vague. I do not have a crystal ball, but I believe very hard times are coming, and that the world will be a place vastly different from the one that young people have known to date. For most, they will not be prepared, and they will suffer life-long as a result. What people do by age 25 largely sets their plate for the rest of their lives. I believe that the prepared may actually end up doing very well. I think that those who are prepared for the times that come will eat very well on the carcasses of the sheep that are not.
I agree, it’s the mindset of the young individual that will determine success or failure going forward.
Can’t add much more other than I do believe that the trades (plumbers, electricians) will still provide job opportunity’s, but not the union minded. I think after the dust settles and the tears have been shed the free market will rein again, or a total Fascist state will exist. Crap shoot at best.
Self-esteem, confidence and motivation.
That’s what is required. Few parents teach it. Almost no schools teach it.
In my 20’s it was sex, drugs and rock and roll. As long as I was doing better than my friends I was doing alright. I was in my early 30’s when I realized I had the potential to do a lot better. I enrolled in a weekend “Anthony Robbins type” seminar — my life changed for the positive immediately after that.
The US has and probably will always have comparative advantage in a few areas that will create opportunities for American individuals and companies.
1) We call a spade a spade. If something is fucked up, we acknowledge it and work on solutions. It is amazing how many cultures discourage such behavior. Of course the US is full of weasily bitches who run for cover and someone else to blame so as they look innocent, but they are merely bugs to be squashed at the appropriate time, or if they happen to run large companies (as is often the case these days), such companies are places to be avoided.
2) Even though test scores are down, the US still has many of the world’s leading research institutions and has a huge reservoir of technical talent. Combine this with #1 and we, as a culture, can kick anyone’s ass.
Look at the Germans. They have had much of their country practically destroyed and yet they have re-emerged to be Europe’s leading scientific and industrial center despite a government that is as fucked up as any other in that part of the world. They have done it because they never lost their pool of talent and their technology, which as been superior for more than a century and that they are committed to producing the best, despite many cultural shortcomings themselves.
Of course these are generalities, but they are also true.
Z – I agree, to some extent, with your points, which is why I suggest the US will maintain its lead – but at a much reduced ratio. Re the research – much of the benefits of such quickly find their way overseas. Large companies export the benefits very quickly indeed. Further, a significant proportion of the research is done by non-US personnel. That ultimately benefits foreign nations as well.
For instance, of the 1800 odd graduate students at Cornell, approximately 900 of them are international students. The vast majority of them are in the sciences/engineering/computer fields. Approx. 60 percent of international grad students study one of those fields, as opposed to under 20 percent of US grad students studying one of thsoe fields. Theefore, I draw the conclusion that the majority of grad students in critical fields of study are foreign. That is not good.
Here is a little factoid that refutes, to a large extent, your second point. China graduates as many as ten times more engineers EACH YEAR – as many as 600,000 per year – than the US. Think about that. Those engineers may be receiving training that is not up to US standards – at the moment. But the shear weight of numbers will overwhelm the US tech advantage – and it will happen quite soon, I am afraid. And that does not include the engineers India graduates.
I believe that China and India, in particualr, will be kicking US butt in tech shortly enough. and I doubt very much they will be making the benefits available to the US.
Z – I think you are probably underestimating the enemy.
To the young, here’s my two cents on a few worth while skills to obtain,
Learn homesteading skills, learn to live off the land, learn what plants to eat and how to trap and prepare wild game. Learn how to ride and maintain a good saddle horse, learn how to pack a pannier and disappear into the remote high country where vehicles cannot tread. Now my friend you have a set of skills to survive the coming crash. If you cannot survive nothing else matters, in the last depression 75% of the population lived in the country and canned food out of their very own garden those folks already knew how to make it through a hard winter. Today 75 % live in cities and have no food in reserve, the free shit army will burn the infrastructure to the ground.
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Watch the show from a distance and move back in after the hordes of hopeless zombies have thinned their ranks by 90%. Now there’s a plan you can bet your life on. Consider carefully, this time it’s for all the marbles.
Who knows you might cross trails with sensetti, you never know.
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Here is a snapshot of what I think an astute young person should be doing:
– Work making money 40 to 50 hours per week
– Attend class full-time at night. This would take a time committment of perhaps 15 class hours and perhaps 20 to 25 study hours. Some of the class-time could be done on-line.
The time committment for such a student would be under 100 hours. That is substantial, but doable. I know from personal experience that young people are capable of those hours for extended periods.
After 4 years, those hours could be reduced by perhaps 30 hours, to 70 or 75. Those hours could continue to around age 30 -35 then drop modestly, to perhaps 60 – 65.
At around 45, the hours could wind back a bit more. And then by age 50, they could fall substantially. That is the age when everything should have come together – education, experience, assets, etc. should intersect.
Llpoh- I understand your intentions, BUT many college students can only find part time work. While I was in college it was possible to work 40 plus hours a week. Now that is a fantasy. Employers are loading up on part time workers to escape health care and raises.
sensetti – you are describing half of what I have mentioned – either above or elsewhere- today: that the yound need to be a combination of good ol’ countryboy who can survive and tech geek. You are very right. I do not entirely ascribe to the zombie horde scenarios – I believe it is a fairly low probability – but it cannot be discounted and is certainly a realistic scenario. I suspect there will be ongoing serious flareups and rioting, but not full zombie horde mode.
Calamity – I intentionally said work, not job. Work is readily available. Anyone can find work. And work that pays. Finding a job is another story.
To find work you need to simply put your mind to the task and find some. In good weather, a lawnmower and a mode of transport will do the trick. A broom will do it too. “Hey mister, can I sweep up out front of your store for $5?” A bucket and a squeegee. A bucket and a sponge and a bottle of car wash. A pair of shears. I can go on and on. Work is available. Again, I know this from personal experience. If you ahve never cold-knocked on a door looking for work, your life experience is not entirely complete. It is something everyone should know how to do.
And here is a the thing – when I grew up, I would go out and find work. Sometimes it paid a pittance. But it always paid better than sitting on my ass at home watching TV. And it always will.
I just think you may be over simplifying the reality. You have millions out of work and unemployed. You need someone employed to pay for that type of cold-knocked work. I have ended up with numerous jobs just asking for work. But that was in the late 90’s and early 2000s. While I was growing up my mom even worked at a shoe shine booth.
And here is a the thing – when I grew up, I would go out and find work. Sometimes it paid a pittance. But it always paid better than sitting on my ass at home watching TV. And it always will.
Yes, BUT this is not the 1950s and you are giving advice to people who have to pay bills. Even most teenagers have to pay their own insurance or phone expenses. Too many people need RELIABLE consistent work. I don’t know many people who can accept the risk associated with work outside of a full time job. Even I could not and my job pays shitty.
Llpoh, India has the advantage of being largely english (which is the undisputed international language for business) speaking, but they still suffer enormous brain-drain. Many of those engineers educated here won’t be working in India. As for the Chinese, until the quality of their industrial products ceases to suck, and until they adhere to international standards without cheating, I remain unconvinced.
Calamity – so your advice is to sit on your ass and do nothing. My advice is for them to get up off their asses and go find work to pay those bills. If they can find a full-time job, great. But if they cannot, I advise they go work.
And the reality is going to change. It is going to be very hard and very desperate. It is going to be a situation whee to eat it may be necessary to go find work.
Calamity – do me a favor and quit making fucking excuses for the young. They need toquit sitting around and go work. It is simple as that.
Re your point about someone need to have a job to pay for the door-knockers, that is correct. Some will have jobs.
In the Great Depression, my grandfather went door to door with a shovel. He kept his family alive shovelling coal deliveries for $.10 a load. I can be done. It will be done again when things get hard enough. And the people that can do it will survive and thrive, and those that cannot will not.
You are making excuses for the young and lazy. They can get off their asses and find work if they want to. And they can make enough to survive. I guarantee a kid working 60 hours a week would make more than a full time minimum wage job will pay. But he or she would have to hussle.
ONE BIG, BIG, HUGE, FUCKING DIFFERENCE between now and your grandfather in the great depression. All the business losers were wiped out. That means everything. Most of the economy is either unemployed, underemployed, or in college. The FEDs are pumping in 85 Billion per month to dead companies. In the meanwhile inflating a gigantic bubble in every imaginable market.
I’m not saying you are wrong in valuing work. But things have changed in the past 50 years and the great depression happened AFTER the collapse. We have not even collapsed.
While I say over simplified- Tell me how much exactly do you think it takes per month for the typical college student to survive? How much do you think dorm costs, tuition, food, gas, insurance, per month?
Calamity says: While I say over simplified- Tell me how much exactly do you think it takes per month for the typical college student to survive? How much do you think dorm costs, tuition, food, gas, insurance, per month?
Then fuck college. Educate yourself; libraries are almost free. If someone has talent and knowledge from whatever source, doors will open. I know, I have seen it many times.
Good advice.
I started working as a kid (I had a Popsicle stand in front of my house). I’ve had all kinds of jobs, and my parents never gave me a dime for anything, including college. I’ve traveled all over the world, lived abroad, been to every continent. All amazing life experiences.
And that is my advice: life experience. Life goes by very quickly, especially when you’re young. So many people are living empty lives chasing money, cars, prestige, and it’s all bullshit. And so is having a pile of money. People kill themselves to have a pile of money, or three cars, and a bunch of useless crap that adds no value, and more importantly, no life experience. Trying to impress yourself or others is a waste of time, easily forgettable, and adds no value to your life.
When you get old (not that I’m that old), you look back on what you’ve done, people you’ve met, what you’ve experienced, the things, countries, and places you’ve been to. You don’t remember your checking account balance or how many cars you had twenty years ago.
Some people’s whole life is devoted simply to earning money, which can vanish in a heartbeat. I don’t see these people ever being happy, because they never have enough money, they always want more. Then the rest of the idiots who go to work for 25 years to a completely useless, meaningless job of no consequence to anybody (government employees come to mind), only to retire in poor health, obese, unable to do anything with their fat pensions.
There are so few people that ever leave the U.S., travel, experience what this world is really about. Get a “real life” education instead of the mostly pointless crap you learn in college and quickly forget. You get no real sense of humanity, especially in the morally and spiritually dead USSA. The happiest people on this planet are the poorest people on the planet. If you don’t believe me, go see it for yourself. You’ll realize what a fool you and everyone else is chasing the almighty dollar and utterly wasting their lives.
Young people especially are motivationally bankrupt. Debt has a way of doing that. And techno-narcissism. They’d rather live in squalor in their parents basements than take a job overseas. No, that might require some effort, and would their phones work? Damn, I get so disgusted with kids these days. They want it all and think they deserve it all, but don’t want to have to work for it. Pathetic. Meanwhile, the whole entire world awaits, and they do nothing to see and experience it.
So, I can only speak from experience. Traveling around the world, working many different jobs, and most importantly, being open to opportunities when they present themselves is the most important thing you can do in life. And, I believe, helping others. I’m lucky enough to do and have done all that and more. When opportunities presented themselves, I took them, and I don’t have many regrets. Opportunities aren’t always wrapped up with red bows, sometimes they seem like a waste of time or a crappy job, but turn into something marvelous with a little effort expended.
What job to get today or in the future? One you love. That’s what I’ll tell my kids. If they love being plumbers, then I’ll be happy. If you don’t love what you do, you’ll be a miserable failure no matter how much money you have. Sounds trite, but it’s true. But by working hard, and doing what you love, you can still make a pile of money and be happy at the same time. And if all you want out of life is money, then go to where all the money is. Life’s not that hard to figure out.
Z- The economy has not collapsed. Not nearly. The dirty little secret is college is a stimulus. It has been for the past 15 years. Imagine if that money stopped flowing next semester. You would have hundreds of billions of dollars wiped out of the economy in a week. You would have millions of unemployed students and graduate students. The housing bubble would completely be wiped out without college money supporting these high rents. Many businesses would cease to operate. Retail and Restaurants only are staying a float because of FED money propping up commercial restate. In addition restaurants pay their food costs a 18 months in advance, even a .05% deflation would wipe out nearly the entire restaurant business.
I do not advocate kids live in dorms. They need to live at home and commute. Obviously, this is not possible for al, but in general it is possible. The cost of state school would be under $10k per year. That is fundable via work. A quick google for a local state university was under $5000 a year including books.
If do to extreme circumstances kids cannot live at home, I advocate they go to the cheapest state school they can find, and borrow the least possible.
Business losers have been wiped out here, too. Check out the number of small businesses that have failed. The collapse is well underway.
llpoh,
In the Depression, my grandpa cut firewood with an axe for 15 cents a cord. According to the BLS inflation calculator, that would be $2.56 today (which probably means it’d really be $10). Still, that’s a lot of wood for a pittance, especially in a Wisconsin winter. People will only do that if they have to. Now they don’t. They go on SNAP and SSDI and Section 8 housing and Obama buys them a phone. Accordingly, today, people suck.
My idea for a stable remunerative career in the next 40 years is: Do that something that HAS to be done here and something that no one else wants to do. Examples: own a company that does septic line repairs or removes rat infestations from houses or restaurants. If you want something in the medical field, do something that the government doesn’t consider essential (so that they stay the hell out of it). Oral surgery comes to mind. Being a regular doctor still has some prestige, so it may attract sufficient would-be doctors to keep a lid on the pay. Grinding the pus out of someone’s infected jawbone is less prestigious, so you may make more money. People will borrow $200k to become a mediocre lawyer earning $47k just because they get to talk smart and wear nice skirts to the office. No one wants to be knee-deep in human excrement, so if you’re in the shit business (septic & sewer), you can charge a lot. And the work can’t get shipped off to Bangalore.
Calamity, you’re talking about macroeconomics, I’m talking about micro (which is the only kind that matters). Nobody can control what happens to the world. A comet could blast us out of existence tomorrow. What anyone can control is finding a way to succeed (or at least survive) in the present world regardless. You appear to be finding excuses for failing in the present world. It may be a bromide but it is also true: Excuses are for losers. There are plenty of opportunities available today. Seize them…or not.
Calamity – you are just making excuses. Your whole point is that “this time it is different”. You are saying the same thing that I have heard dozens and dozens of times – “you do not understand. This situation is harder/different/more complex, etc.” And every time it was not harder, more complex different – and the fact was I did understand.
It is really simple. It may not work if everybdy does it. But it will work if anybody does it. Not everyone will do it, so no need to worry about that changing things.
If a yound person wants to make money – go work. Any fit young man or woman can make hundreds of dollars a week with a lawnmower. I guarantee it. It will work for anyone. It is not different. Combine it with a window cleaning business, and you will need to knock on
fewer doors.
Llpoh- Nearly all colleges require at least freshmen live in the dorm their first year unless they are living with their parents. However, most college require your parents live within the district. At my college you could only live at home to go to school if your parents lived in a 20 mile radius within the University. My first semester in college cost me exactly 4,455 dollars. Half of that war board for 3 1/2 months. I spent 2 months living in a Holiday Inn because of over crowding that the college never told anyone about. My meal plan cost 1200 dollars for food I didn’t even eat because the cafeteria was only open between the hours of 5-7am, 10-12 pm, and 4-6pm. All prime class times and I went to work at 4pm. I didn’t even own a car the whole time I was in college. But I manage to rack up 25,000 and that was with a pell grant. After grants, loans, I still had to pay cash out of pocket for remaining tuition and books. And this was at a cheap college prior to the rising costs after 2008. Not to mention I still had to work two jobs in college. One a full time job when minimum wage was still 5.15 and hour and a work study job. And I still lived in poverty.
Z- you are really underestimating the money involved with colleges. Anything that happens with the ccollege market deflating will rip this whole economy a new one. Not to mention that 1 trillion in current student loan debt.
llpoh
Trying to explain old school work ethics to a youngster. Hilarious. Keep at it…and good luck.
The people moving from one welfare state to another welfare state to get more free shit happens here as well. The socialist state of Illinois and California give out the most free shit in this country, and everyone “qualifies”. People move here from all over the country, but especially from Texas and other non-democrat controlled states. Chasing the free shit is an occupation.
Iska – good stuff. Re the septic tanks, I spent a summer pumping shit out of tanks at rest stops. I made a lot of money. I didn’t get much sleep. Those tanks take a lot of pumping in summertime.
You are right that kids do not HAVE to do those things at the moment. But I think that will change. Your grandpa’s story and my grandpa’s story are very much the same. They did not do it for fun – they did it to eat.
Your advice to do what others do not want to do is pretty good. But some nasty old jobs pay very poorly – wiping asses in nursing homes leaps immediately to mind.
Z – you are absolutely right. What you are saying is identical to what I am saying that it would not work for EVERYBODY but it will for ANYBODY. Macro vs micro. Not enough folks will actually do it to change the macro of it, and on a micro basis it will indeed work.
And she is just making excuses.
Oh for perspective, in 2005 my first semester cost 4,455 dollars exactly. Currently in 2013, one semester of college at the same University costs 12,296 dollars. At a CHEAP college.
Oh, and my mom graduated from that same University in 1999 with only 6,000 in debt while raising two kids and working two jobs. Her semesters cost less than 1,500 dollars. You really think I am lying about college costs?
AWD – I hold no illusions that I will make a dent on Calamity’s mindset. Perhaps it will get her thinking some time in the future.
Calamity, I advocate avoiding student debt. But in a crisis – where a person ahs no other choice – a debt of $25k is a small price to pay for an education. They cannot reposses it. I do advocate paying it off, tho. Do not buy a new car until the loan is paid off. I wonder how many folks with student loans are driving new cars? I bet it is most.
I drove an old beater until I was 37. I did not have to. I caught a lot of shit for it – what is a senior manager doing driving that piece of shit, etc. Because I could, and it was cheap, and it got me from A to B while I paid off my house. Those dicks are still paying off their house. I now drive whatever takes my fancy.
Okay, so from what I gather from the above comments, we boomers aren’t the cause of the collapse of western civilization after all. I am so relieved. Now if I could only be a chick magnet once again (not that I ever was).
Calamity – a college costing $12 k a semester is not very cheap. There are generally cheaper options.
Llpoh- Are dispute of paying back student loans are because they are an economic stimulus. I don’t get calls from creditors to actually pay them off. I get calls to take them out of default. Huge difference. II do pay on my loans through garnishment. But that is not what the FEDs want. We all know with fiat money to create money you have to take out a loan. I defaulted on 17,000 in loans. It took me 2 years to offically default. The extra 7,000 was interest fees. Now that it is defaulted on that means their is 25,000 less in the money supply right?
Ok, now the big crux is imagine all the derivatives that were attached to my 17,000 in loans. Loans taken out based on the original loan. Now imagine how much derivative loans were taken out. The student loan market has trillions of derivatives taken out based on that 1 trillion loaned. Because they can not be defaulted on imagine how much that totals? How about we estimate a conservation 3X of derivatives attached to my student loans. I am sure it is much greater than that. So 51,000 ripped out of the money supply with the default of a 17,000 loan. Now 3X as much if you include the interest 75,000 wiped out of the money supply based on my one loan. Now imagine how much money supply would be knocked out with a default on 1 trillion plus X amount of derivatives.
The Federal Government does not care about being payed back. They only care about loans staying current to prevent the deflation crash.
Calamity – interest = profit. That is why banks do not want capital paid back. That is why I a not a valued credit card customer. I do not pay interest. But they love my deposits.
Llpoh- Interest is only money created based off the original loan. When you took out a loan before the nixon shock that money already existed. Now money has to be created by taking out a loan. That is why it is a stimulus. 1 trillion dollars was created because of student loans. That money does not exist. The interest on these loans do not exist. It is only a way to create inflation in the economy to prop up the economy.
It is the exact same thing as the FED taking creating 85 billion dollars through bonds per month.
One thing about this site, although most (if not all) of the material on here about our nation is true, is that we view our nation’s current situation in much more dire circumstances then it actually is. In other words, don’t make things worse then they seem.
Truth is, we are still living in complete bliss. And no one truly knows when the battle for our nation is to come. So, for now, I think we should all continue to chase our dreams. Especially someone like me who is inherently pessimistic. I have to block out the negatives if I’m going to get anywhere in life.
I would tell kids to explore logistics, energy production, permaculture, resource management, bioengineering, and geographic information systems. Sadly, there will also be ample opportunities in law enforcement, security enhancement, and intelligence gathering.
The main things they need for success are a good work ethic and the ability to get along with all kinds of people. If they possess those, opportunities will present themselves.
Good thread-Thanks for posting, llpoh, and thanks to all commenting. For my 2 cents worth, I echo llpoh’s original point-learn a solid work ethic, learn some basic outdoor skills, and stay up with technology. Then do what you need to to make opportunities. It may be a different world from when we were young, but the fundamentals are still sound, if you exercise them.
llpoh says:
Z – just tie fifty hundreds around your neck and they will flock to you.
I find that picture profoundly depressing.
Thanks everyone. It is a pretty important conversation, albeit one where we really are just guessing. In fifty years, if someone reads these predictions, they will laugh their asses off.
Re things everyone should know how to do, we need a separate thread for that.
Stay at home as long as you can.
Forget about school, quit at legal age.
Read the complete works of Shakespeare and the Harvard Classics for your education
Work two jobs under the table for cash.
Find a government teat to suck on, like a Lefty.
Trust no one over thirty, and Lefties of any age.
Take the proceeds after living costs and buy Gold and Silver. Keep secret about it.
Stay single to at least your mid forties.
“- they should study computers”-llpoh
They already do. Experts in Facebook and GTA 5.
This is typical parochial thinking off the keyboard of llpoh. Computers won’t be functioning once the Chinese choke to death on the pollution they are producing strip mining rare earth minerals. Even if they are still making some, they sure won’t be accepting FRNs in trade for them. LOL.
Learn to Scavenge & Repair. Fxing up broken stuff will be in high demand since new stuff will not be on the shelves of Walmart. I had an uncle who did quite well as Junkman in the Great Depression.
Learn to distill Whisky. My Grandad is FAMOUS here for putting together a FORTUNE during the Great Depression as a Bootlegger and Speakeasy owner in Brooklyn. 🙂 We have great Survivor Genes in the RE family line. LOL.
Learn Medicinal Herbs. Pharmaceuticals are going to be tough to come by, and you can grow your own medicines even if you don’t own a plot of land. Go out and plant them all around the neighborhood, none of the other dimwits will know what they are looking at.
Work up a good Religious Philosophy and Delivery. Preachers do well in Hard Times. Scavenge some Tupperware for a Collection Plate.
Practice with your Axe. Executioners who can Decapitate a Pigman with a single swing of the Axe will be in High Demand. 🙂 Good backup if you don’t have a Guillotine in the neighborhood. [img
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RE
“Trust no one over thirty, and Lefties of any age. ‘-GO
GO, you don’t TRUST me? I am DEVASTATED. LOL.
RE
Typical end of the world thinking by RE.
Why people won’t listen to a successful person is beyond me. So frustrating reading some comments.
There is a difference between finding a job and also working.
Growing up I had a part time job because that’s all there was. Of course that job didn’t pay enough to take care of the bills.
Gosh darn, what to do, what to do…….. Protest? Strike? Vote for some lame ass son of a bitch who never worked a real job their entire life?
So I found “work.” I cut grass, helped lay concrete, went to the marina to wash and wax boats, I helped roof houses, I shoveled snow in the winter, I got a paper route, I found another part time job busing tables on the weekends. I went to school at night, married at 21, babies at 22 and 24, still married, three grandkid’s.
My other friends partied, I worked mostly for cash and saved. Debt free today and it feels great.
Thanks for the post Llpoh, I’ve passed it on to friends and family.
Nice article llpoh. You spelled it out more intelligently and succinctly that I could have. No nits to pick except I’d pass on the formal education aspect unless not having it would hold me back.
The main thing is to be willing to work………any work, any time, anyplace. As long as it put money in my pocket, I was and am willing and able.
Calamity spends too much time dwelling on how and why shit can’t be done. She defeats herself before she gets out of the gate. If she and I were neighbors, she would starve to death while I got fat and rich in a great depression scenario.
Like I said on the other post, the secondhand business will be booming in years to come. Same goes for tinkers and mechanics. I think the Minnies will suffer from a failure of imagination more than anything else. Hunger will get many of them on the right track.
I_S
I recall being told when I was growing up and into my 20’s-30’s that having done so many different kind of jobs would put out the message that I couldn’t keep a job or that I was flighty. I found the reality to be far different. People would see me busting my ass doing a honest, diligent job and they would just offer me more work. Most of my life I’ve had full time jobs but I always had more work on the side. I probably turned down more jobs than I actually did over my life. I got out of the concrete business almost 8 years ago and I still get people calling me to do concrete work because I did such a good job for them in the past. If I only had the time.
I_S
“Typical end of the world thinking by RE.”-llpoh
Not the End of the World. Just TEOTWAWKI. 🙂
How well did your Grandfather do in Great Depression? Weren’t you a poor Native American who scratched his way up from Poverty to become a Pigman surfing the Age of Oil? What experience can you relate of having to scratch out a living during the tough times?
I take my lessons from people who made it through when times were TOUGH, not soft dipshits who got rich off the backs of their underpaid slave laborers.
Just Sayin. LOL.
RE
I’m old fashioned. Sort of a Luddite. I don’t have nearly all the answers to the questions my son will ask… but I do have a few.
1. Pick one thing you’re good at, and then be better than everyone else doing it.
2. Don’t worry about what ‘the other guy’ is doing- worry about what YOU are doing.
3. Don’t be jealous of what ‘the other guy’ has – be grateful for what YOU have.
4. Do right by your family.
5. Concentrate on the hard sciences.
6. Always have a Plan B.
7. Avoid debt like the Black Death.
8. Work isn’t “work” if you have fun doing it.
9. No matter how bad things get, NEVER sell the farm.
10. Never do anything that will dishonor yourself or your family.
11. There is nobility in hard work.
12. There’s two ways to do something. There’s “The Right Way”, and then there’s everything else.
13. Before spending money, ask yourself “Do you NEED this?”
14. Computer games are a gigantic waste of time.
15. If you want a good apple, do not go to the barrel. Go to the tree.
16. NEVER stop learning. There is always something new to learn.
A word about apprenticeships…
I’ve had fathers come to me, wanting me to take their sons as apprentices (I actually have some esoteric, and hard-won, skills). The problem is time and patience.
For a real apprenticeship to work, to do it the old way, the father of the kid would ask a master if he could apprentice. If he were accepted, he would spent the next year or two sweeping floors or cleaning up – what amounts to a long gut-check. If the kid didn’t have the patience to put in his time and make his bones doing shit work, then he wasn’t cut out for that job in the first place. The apprentice is supposed to do shit work, but this is actually a cover – the apprentice is supposed to be watching the master while this is going on… learning.
Usually, in the 2nd year, the apprentice would be taught the basic skills needed – the foundation of the craft. If he showed promise and skill, he would be taught more intricate and involved skills.
By year 4, he would be trusted enough to deal with the day-to-day bread and butter jobs that come in, while the master would deal with advanced or tough jobs. During downtime (no customer jobs or pressing issues) the master would pass on those skills needed to complete advanced or intricate jobs.
By year 5, if all goes well, the apprentice would be awarded the title of Journeyman and he was free to leave and start his own shop elsewhere – hence the name “Journey-man”. After a number of years refining his skills and becoming outstanding in his work, he could apply to a guild for the title of Master. Afterwards, if he earned the title of Master, he could then take on his own apprentice, and the wheel turns again…
The Europeans still do it this way for certain things – blacksmith, whitesmith, tinsmith, goldsmith, etc. Only the Americans seem to think that you need a 4 year degree to be ‘educated’… what a bunch of shit. Graduating a school just means you are ‘trained’… it doesn’t even mean you are any GOOD at what you do. To become a true Master at anything, you need to practice your craft for years, then be judged by your superiors.
Never stop learning – inspiration can come from anywhere, at any time…
Don’t have kids.