I must make one statement before I go on any further, for I believe it needs to be said as to clarify my intentions in writing the above headline. Let me first express my sincere apologies to weather-rock weathermen everywhere. At least you understand why the rock may, or may not, show signs for contemplation. The others have demonstrated far too many times by their own proclamations of analysis – they have no clue.
Let me put out another premise that should not be lost on anyone trying to figure out what they’ll both do in their business, as well as – with it. Because, unlike those of us that live and die by the decisions we need to make when it comes to pricing, inventories, labor, location, etc., etc. An economist not only is usually not on the same page as you or I. In most cases one can argue: they may not even be on the same planet.
“You know what the difference is between an Economist/Analyst and a Business-owner? When a Business-owner makes a prediction on his or her business and predicts wrong: The business as well as they could wind up in bankruptcy. When the Economist/Analyst makes a wrong prediction: They just make another prediction.”
So why the use of the proverbial “weather-rock” analogy you may be asking as it pertains to something so complex as the economy. Well, in many cases the economy is just as complex with just as many unknowns and misunderstood relationships as the weather. (Please, for the sake of this discussion refrain from interjecting any “climate change” arguments . Please! I’m begging you!!)
What was once a joke (e.g. the weather-rock) now seems to symbolize what today stands for “serious analysis” or “markers” as to base monetary policy decisions on. Today, forecasts of nearly any sort are adjusted more times as well as their initial direction of strength or lack of it making TV weatherman everywhere ask – “Dang! And they say we’re not reliable?”
Far worse, these predictions are made using data in every way that resembles the known use for proper analysis of the weather-rock. i.e., If it’s wet – it’s raining. If it’s cold – it’s cold outside. And as ridiculously obvious as the aforementioned example is. What seems lost on most economists (as well as the financial media as a whole) is that their version of a weather-rock is being manipulated as to be wet not from rain – but from someone dousing it with a garden hose or other source whenever needed.
Nevertheless – their resulting analysis would be the same: The rock (or data) is wet, therefore it must be raining.
It’s one thing for those who want to express their “brilliance” in professing this style of insight and/or analysis. We can pay attention, or not. It’s a far different thing when monetary policy that will affect not only your business or personal finances – but quite possibly the sovereignty of the monetary system as a whole I’ll argue – is quite another.
Today, the world of Ivory Towered Economists (ITE) and their prognostications have taken on an aire in quite the opposite direction as well as tone of what we’ve now come to expect when watching a local or even national weather broadcast. If a typhoon, monsoon, hurricane, you name it, is somewhere visible on the planet, whether it’s reached land or is 2000 miles out at sea. A diagnosis and analysis of the impending potential havoc will be strewn across your preferred media consumption device in a never-ending cycle of breaking news alerts with more force and rapidity; than the actual wind speeds of the rotating storm front itself.
As much as we may laud or laugh at the coverage, the fact is – at least there is a case to be made for the potential of such predictions coming to fruition. i.e., there is an actual visible storm. On the other hand, the ITE acknowledge more often than advisable prudence would allow for, that there is no need for concern. For after all – the “rock” is not wet. All in a reticent tone implying: No need to worry – “They’ve got your back.”
Then it’s up to you as to infer exactly “who’s” back do they indeed have? Yours? Or the banks and insurance companies? And if it’s the latter – does that translate into help for you after any such storm clears? If you want any clues on how much help the latter may provide – just ask anyone still trying to put their lives and homes together since Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Same goes for anyone trying to prudently protect their savings after the 2008 financial crisis.
The issue at hand is: far more people have discovered whether by chance or direct analysis of their own, both the Fed., as well as their gaggle of cohorts throughout academia, as well as in the financial media, are all watching and gaining their clues – from the same “rock.” Furthermore: It’s now self-evident to anyone willing to look. It’s not to see if the rock is wet, dry, or anything else. It’s to make the rock wet, dry, or anything else needed for the narrative. Because today; narrative trumps reality in today’s economic disciplines. For “Fake it till you make it” seems to have become the most dangerous expression of monetary policy group think the world has ever known.
GDP numbers not what you would like? (i.e., the rock is dry) Simply allow for some “double seasonally adjusted” garden hose operator to make it so. “Jobs” numbers showing too much, or too little, conflicting the narrative of why, or why not, raise rates? No problem. Put a hairdryer on it today, and the garden hose tomorrow. After all, wet is wet, and dry is dry, regardless of how, right? Caught in a quagmire of trying to fend off accusations that the rock is clearly visible? Again, no problem. Order up a fog machine and take to the podiums and pronounce: The data is a little murky. We’ll have to just wait and see. After all, who could argue with holding off any policy adjustments without clear visibility, correct?
As ludicrous as the above sounds. If one truly looks at just how the articulated views from both the Fed. as well as most other economists. I would venture to say it’s not that far removed as they would like one to think. And there’s also one other small truth that looms quite large in the annuls of their predicting prowess. Just like the weather-rock, the damaging effects as well as the outright disastrous implications are unseen by this crowd until the actual catastrophe is upon them.
One would have thought being in an Ivory Tower might have supplied a better advantage or viewpoint. Oh well!
I’m just happily awaiting the Blood Moon in September!
Get Ready For A 4,000-Point Dow Drop
The stock market has an empirical rule: interest rates lead stocks. And the current interest rate environment is pointing to a massive decline for the U.S. market.
Consider: The Federal Reserve has taken rates to the lowest level in more than a generation. This has energized stock prices. The Fed has persisted in its directive to “stay the course,” having made no raises in the discount rate for more than seven years. Such monetary policy has no precedent; this is the longest stretch of accommodation by the Fed in the post-World War II era.
But there’s Fed-induced rates, and “actual” rates. The most widely followed Treasury markets are the longer-term 10-year TMUBMUSD10Y, -4.21% and 30-year TMUBMUSD30Y, -3.70% markets. These two markets are highly sensitive to longer-term actual interest-rate pressures. For example, banks use longer-term Treasurys to make decisions on pegging personal loan rates to clients for mortgages, businesses, and other uses. The commercial and industrial areas of the economy also are susceptible to the actual cost of money.
Are there parallels to this current market environment? Yes — 1987.
The summer that year began with a slow, methodical rise in actual rates. Yet the Fed did not raise the discount rate, even though actual rates suggested otherwise. The fall of 1987 arrived with the stock market having hit an all-time high in late August, unfazed by this unsettled condition.
As it happened, the Federal Reserve was literally forced to raise interest rates. Policymakers were behind the curve severely, just as the Fed is now. The 1987 rising-rate action caused stock prices to tumble more than 30% within two months, including a sharp 20% selloff in October — still among the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s DJIA, +0.22% worst one-day percentage declines ever.
These warning signs are again visible. The first week of June recorded the highest interest rates since December. Bond prices are down about 12% since the end of January.
The stock market, meanwhile, follows the bond market’s direction — except by a much wider margin. A multiple of 2.0 is conservative. A 2x multiplier figured against the recent 12% plus loss in bonds prices would generate a 24% decline in stock prices.
At current levels, such a slide would equate to a loss of about 500 points on the S&P 500 SPX, +0.17% and a Dow pullback of close to 4,300 points.
So pay attention to rising actual rates. The “actual” bond market is already into a bear market, with declining tops and lower lows since the end of January. The stock market is vulnerable here. The first week of June saw interest rates spike, with bond prices losing 2.5% of their value. This is comparable to around a 7 1/2% loss in stock prices in one week.
The pressures are increasing exponentially since the decline in bond prices has not resulted in a stock market slide. And the greater the pressure, the greater and quicker will be the downward move.
http://govtslaves.info/get-ready-for-a-4000-point-dow-drop/
I believe the 4000 point drop will take place on Sept 25 — which coincides with the 4,000th Anniversary of the First Joojoo Bank of Israel, and also falls on the very first Shitmahpantz festival.
I don’t know what that means, but it must mean SOMETHING.
“We have a problem with this, and that is central bank hubris. They now think that they are omnipotent, because, essentially the government has said we are going to pass over all control of the economy to the central banks, they say to everybody else including financial market participants that “you don’t know, you don’t understand, we have our models and they are right”. And that kind of hubristic approach is when you sow the seeds of your own destruction.”
Raoul Pal
Ms Freud’s son is a regular run-of-the-mill stockbroker. In the past 7 years I’ve attempted to talk about the state-of-the-economy with him maybe five times. These “conversations” last less than 10 minutes. He places absolutely zero stock (pun intended) in any doom&gloom. He says it’s all bullshit. Everything is wonderful, and will stay that way for the foreseeable future. The “conversation” soon descends into hints&tips of a hot stock we HAVE to get into.
Not the sharpest tool in the shed. The first Christmas I knew him he got a $50 Barnes and Noble gift certificate. I eventually found out what he bought; a box of Godiva chocolates, and about $30 in various sports magazines, as he participates in various fantasy leagues. He told me — and was rather proud in the telling — that he hadn’t read a book since he graduated college about two decades ago.
Anyway, about 10 minutes ago he got off the phone with his mom. They made an offer yesterday on a house ……. $795,00 / $18,000 yr in taxes. PITI should be about $6,000 month. He has a one year old Lexus. His massive wife just bought a monster Ford Expedition Platinum XL. Life is gooooooooood in ‘Murika!!
That motherfucker better not even think about moving in with mom if or when his kingdom falls to pieces. I will, however, give him my soon to be published book, “I told you to be careful, motherfucker!”.
This be the place. http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/61-Rose-Ave-New-Providence-NJ-07974/40026957_zpid/