USGS Scientist: Major Quake On Hayward Fault Expected ‘Any Day Now’
(CBS SF) — The fault that produced a 4.0-magnitude earthquake in Fremont early Tuesday morning is expected to produce a major earthquake “any day now” and Bay Area residents should be prepared, a U.S. Geological Survey scientist said.
The 2:41 a.m. earthquake on the border of Fremont and Union City occurred on the Hayward Fault at a depth of 5 miles. The epicenter was at a spot just north of the intersection of Niles Canyon Road and Mission Boulevard.
The quake caused some BART delays early Tuesday while work crews checked the tracks, but appears to have caused no major damage. At least 13 smaller quakes or aftershocks had been reported near the same location as of 6:42 a.m., the largest of which was a 2.7-magnitude at 2:56 a.m.
While damage from the quake was minimal, scientists warn that a much larger one is expected on the Hayward Fault, which extends from San Pablo Bay in the north to Fremont in the south and passes through heavily populated areas including Berkeley, Oakland, Hayward and Fremont.
The last big earthquake on the fault, estimated to have a 6.8-magnitude, occurred in 1868, according to the USGS.
It killed about 30 people and caused extensive property damage in the Bay Area, particularly in the city of Hayward, from which the fault derives its name. Until the larger 1906 earthquake, it was widely referred to as the “Great San Francisco Earthquake.”
“The population is now 100 times bigger in the East Bay, so we have many more people that will be impacted,” said Tom Brocher, a research geophysicist with the USGS.
“We keep a close eye on the Hayward Fault because it does sit in the heart of the Bay Area and when we do get a big earthquake on it, it’s going to have a big impact on the entire Bay Area,” Brocher said.
While a 2008 report put the probability of a 6.7-magnitude or larger earthquake on the Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault system over the next 30 years at 31 percent, Brocher said the reality is a major quake is expected on the fault “any day now.”
“The past five major earthquakes on the fault have been about 140 years apart, and now we’re 147 years from that 1868 earthquake, so we definitely feel that could happen any time,” Brocher said.
Brocher urged residents to take steps to prepare for a major earthquake.
The USGS shake map shows residents in the areas close to Fremont and Union City experienced light shaking in Tuesday morning’s event, while weaker shaking might have been felt in areas as far south as Santa Cruz, up the Peninsula and as far east as Livermore.
Residents throughout the Bay Area reported feeling the quake, with responses concentrated in the East and South Bay, according to the USGS.
Brocher said Tuesday morning’s 4.0 earthquake was not likely to have much of an impact one way or the other on the likelihood of a major earthquake occurring on the same fault.
Billy said there ain’t no whites in Southern Cali. I guess that’s why your only concerned about the gays in San Fran.
I think I first read that exact headline in 1967. Going on 50 years and nada, zippo, nuttin.
BEA LEVER says: “I think I first read that exact headline in 1967. Going on 50 years and nada, zippo, nuttin.”
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Here’s a list of fatal earthquakes in California since 1969…hundreds dead. “nada, zippo, nuttin”??
The entire list is in the link below for California–I stripped out the non-fatal ones since 1967.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/states/historical_state.php#california
1969 10 02 – Santa Rosa, California – M 5.7 Fatalities 1
1971 02 09 – San Fernando, California – M 6.6 Fatalities 65
1987 10 01 – Whittier Narrows, California – M 5.9 Fatalities 8
1987 10 04 – Whittier Narrows, California – M 5.6 Fatalities 1
1987 11 24 – Superstition Hills, California – M 6.5 Fatalities 2
1989 08 08 – Santa Cruz County, California – M 5.4 Fatalities 1
1989 10 18 – Loma Prieta, California – M 6.9 Fatalities 63
1991 06 28 – Sierra Madre, California – M 5.6 Fatalities 2
1992 06 28 – Landers, California – M 7.3 Fatalities 3
1994 01 17 – Northridge, California – M 6.7 Fatalities 60
2003 12 22 – San Simeon, California – M 6.6 Fatalities 2
Well, I will have the popcorn ready, just in case. Gotta think positive, you know.
Rise
San Francisco remember…..and it has to be the BIG one. We have had 6.3 quakes here in KY on the New Madrid fault.
The big one will be a subduction quake off the coast of Oregon or Washington. Californians are just whiners.
Don’t let the number fool you, the Northridge quake was a big one if not the big one, somebody said it should have been called at a higher number. It dropped the 14 overpass at the 5.
We aren’t whiners. We live with the threat of wildfires, mudslides, quakes, haboobs (in the AV), microbursts, fog, smog, rip tides, polluted beaches, drought, traffic, road rage, road closures, presidential detours, and worst of all, we are right next to Arizona.
The next few days will tell if that was a fore-shock or not. Nothing to see here move along. It’ll happen when it happens and there won’t be a damn thing we can do to stop it. So prepare and move along.
If the big one is big enough, it will have a fantastic cleansing effect on the coast and possibly put me on beach side property! I will miss the desert of central WA but no pain, no gain right?
A 9.0 is going to clean up that area real fine.
Well thank you Admin.,
This could have waited to be next to Friday Fail , when I would be on Interstate-5 almost home. Around 10.30 AM today I will be going over the SF Bay Bridge for my wife’s check-up at UCSF Med Center. Guess what I will be thinking about?
I used to live in Newark, CA, right next to the Hayward Fault, and I don’t miss it . You should see the number of high end homes on that fault.
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Bea Lever says: Rise San Francisco remember…..and it has to be the BIG one.
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This one affected San Francisco. Not big enough for you, I guess.
“This major earthquake caused 63 deaths, 3,757 injuries, and an estimated $6 billion in property damage. It was the largest earthquake to occur on the San Andreas fault since the great San Francisco earthquake in April 1906.
The most severe property damage occurred in Oakland and San Francisco, about 100 kilometer north of the fault segment that slipped on the San Andreas.”
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/states/events/1989_10_18.php
I’m still waiting for the scenes from “2012” to play out, where the Left and Right coasts are washed away like turds in a toilet vortex.
“The past five major earthquakes on the fault have been about 140 years apart, and now we’re 147 years from that 1868 earthquake, so we definitely feel that could happen any time,” Brocher said.
—-from the article
Ok, some math. 5 major quakes 140 years apart equals 700 years, subtracted from 2015 would put the first quake somewhere in the 1315 timeframe.
WTF? I smell a rat. How does this guy know that a major quake occurred on the Hayward Fault sometime early in the 14th century? Do quakes leave some sort of verifiable footprint on Mother Earth? Inquiring minds want to know.
“worst of all, we (here in California) are right next to Arizona.”
—-El Coyote
Ok, smart ass, you can add “lights out” to the list of shit that happens to California once Arizona throws the switch on the Palo Verde nuclear power plant, the Navajo Generating Station, and the Glen Canyon Dam, all of which send thousands of megawatts of power to your state, mostly to Southern California, where I believe you live. Don’t forget to stock up on matches and kerosene lamps. Heh.