Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/13/2015 10:09 -0400
Total business inventories for June rose 0.8% MoM – the biggest rise since Jan 2013. Great news for Q2 GDP as we stacked ’em high, but as sales lagged dramatically, the inventory-to-sales ratio hit a new post-crisis high at 1.37, flashing a very recessionary level going forward (dampening hype hope for Q3 GDP). Once again it was autos that saw the biggest relative jump in inventories (+1.4% MoM) relative to sales (-1.5%).
Inventories exploded in June…
With the sales ration flashing burght red recessioanry signals…
Charts: Bloomberg
The Obama caused Depression is done after 6 years of promoting Communism and Islam; the bitter cake is out of the oven. Useful Idiots, enjoy the last of the FSA goodies.
Even The Fed Admits Recession Looms: Q3 GDP Forecast Slashed To Just 0.7%
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/13/2015 12:07 -0400
Just as we warned earlier – and Goldman subsequently confirmed – the Q2 “stack’em-high” surge in inventories (which has juiced hype hope that America is back, baby!) has consequences. The Atlanta Fed just released its latest forecast for Q3 GDP growth, lowering it to just 0.7%, citing an inventory drag of -2.2 percentage points. The Fed estimate is now 75% below the street’s consensus!!
[img
[/img]
As The Atlanta Fed explains…
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2015 was 0.7 percent on August 13, down from 0.9 percent on August 6.
The previously reported nowcast of 1.0 percent for August 6 was revised down due to a minor adjustment in the method for nowcasting investment in computers and peripherals. Since a week ago, the nowcast for the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth has declined from -1.8 percentage points to -2.2 percentage points.
This decline more than offset an increase in the nowcast of the third-quarter growth rate in real consumer spending from 2.9 percent to 3.1 percent after the release of this morning’s retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau.
* * *
Be careful what you wish for… or extrapolate.
Excuse me Mr. Siddell but let’s get the facts straight. I’m no apologist for Obama but didn’t the 2008 meltdown occur at the end of “W”‘s term? TARP happened months before Obama was sworn in. You need to check your history. This depression has been papered over now for going on 8 years, and it’s not Dems who caused it. The GOP is just as guilty and I say throw them all out!
Westcoaster,
Compare Reagan inheriting severe economic problems with Obama inheriting the same.
Particularly after over 6 years in office for both.
That’s the issue, what has been done not what was inherited.