Submitted by Tony Heller via RealClimateScience.com,
Climate Central just ran this piece, which the Washington Post picked up on. They claimed the US was “overwhelmingly hot” in 2016, and temperatures have risen 1,5°F since the 19th century.
The U.S. Has Been Overwhelmingly Hot This Year | Climate Central
The first problem with their analysis is that the US had very little hot weather in 2016. The percentage of hot days was below average, and ranked 80th since 1895. Only 4.4% of days were over 95°F, compared with the long term average of 4.9%. Climate Central is conflating mild temperatures with hot ones.
They also claim US temperatures rose 1.5°F since the 19th century, which is what NOAA shows.
Climate at a Glance | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
The problem with the NOAA graph is that it is fake data. NOAA creates the warming trend by altering the data. The NOAA raw data shows no warming over the past century
The adjustments being made are almost exactly 1.5°F, which is the claimed warming in the article.
The adjustments correlate almost perfectly with atmospheric CO2. NOAA is adjusting the data to match global warming theory. This is known as PBEM (Policy Based Evidence Making.)
The hockey stick of adjustments since 1970 is due almost entirely to NOAA fabricating missing station data. In 2016, more than 42% of their monthly station data was missing, so they simply made it up. This is easy to identify because they mark fabricated temperatures with an “E” in their database.
When presented with my claims of fraud, NOAA typically tries to arm wave it away with these two complaints.
- They use gridded data and I am using un-gridded data.
- They “have to” adjust the data because of Time Of Observation Bias and station moves.
Both claims are easily debunked. The only effect that gridding has is to lower temperatures slightly. The trend of gridded data is almost identical to the trend of un-gridded data.
Time of Observation Bias (TOBS) is a real problem, but is very small. TOBS is based on the idea that if you reset a min/max thermometer too close to the afternoon maximum, you will double count warm temperatures (and vice-versa if thermometer is reset in the morning.) Their claim is that during the hot 1930’s most stations reset their thermometers in the afternoon.
This is easy to test by using only the stations which did not reset their thermometers in the afternoon during the 1930’s. The pattern is almost identical to that of all stations. No warming over the past century. Note that the graph below tends to show too much warming due to morning TOBS.
NOAA’s own documents show that the TOBS adjustment is small (0.3°F) and goes flat after 1990.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/ushcn/ts.ushcn_anom25_diffs_pg.gif
Gavin Schmidt at NASA explains very clearly why the US temperature record does not need to be adjusted.
You could throw out 50 percent of the station data or more, and you’d get basically the same answers.
One recent innovation is the set up of a climate reference network alongside the current stations so that they can look for potentially serious issues at the large scale – and they haven’t found any yet.
NASA – NASA Climatologist Gavin Schmidt Discusses the Surface Temperature Record
NOAA has always known that the US is not warming.
U.S. Data Since 1895 Fail To Show Warming Trend – NYTimes.com
All of the claims in the Climate Central article are bogus. The US is not warming and 2016 was not a hot year in the US. It was a very mild year.
What you should know:
1. The temp has been flat for 19 years but CO2 has risen during that same time.
2. The Climate Models have in effect replaced the Scientific Method, but these Models have failed spectacularly in their warming predictions.
3. The temp records have been adjusted and homogenized so that temp and CO2 will now show an agreement in slope.
4. What IPCC wants to show with their fraud science is their Models being able to predict future temp trends.
You can refer to the Model predictions via https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/12/21/homogenization-of-temperature-data-by-the-bureau-of-meteorology/
Climate “science” is rarely scientific these days; most is so politicized as to be worthless. I put climate measurements in the same category as BLS statistics, Fedspeak and unemployment figures: suspect data, to be considered as defective until verified by personal observation.
The government lies, it’s that simple; and the more “important” the figure, the bigger the lie.
I can see with my eyes and feel with my body that cities are heating up air summer and winter (compared to the forests and rural areas). I am sure the urban thermometers register this heat island effect. CO2 makes plants grow better and warmth is better for rain and growth than cold; this is mostly win-win; keep it coming.
Anthropomorphic (man-made) global warming (oops, I mean “climate change”) is one of the most fraud ridden scientific branches that has ever been foisted on the American (and world) public. Temperature sensors were purposely located in “heat islands”–asphalt parking lots and in the center of cities, (contrary to manufacturers’ recommendations and basic scientific practices) by NASA “scientists” in order to skew the “results” and to promote their pet (false) ideology that “mankind was ruining the planet”.
It turns out that solar output has a much greater effect on the earth’s climate than just about anything else. Recently, it was discovered that there are two long-term cycles regarding solar output. When they are “in phase” the effects on the earth climate system is of much much greater magnitude. The “Maunder Minimum” is but one example…look it up.
It turns out that the sun’s output is decreasing; the two cycles are “in phase” and that we will be seeing a dramatic “cooling” of the planet. So much for global warming…
One volcano spewing ash blasts MORE pollutants than have ever been created by mankind. Pollution is a LOCAL problem…witness the extreme pollution in major cities in China and other third-world countries.
FOLLOW THE MONEY…Pure science for mankind’s sake has been corrupted by governments. Scientists are “encouraged” to come up with the desired results, in order to keep their funding coming in…
The Rothschilds own NOAA, nuff said.
Don’t forget to answer any warmists with “who fucking cares?”
I never believe anything my government tells me especially when it comes from agencies that must present data to promote the agenda which in turn assures future funding for their blotted over staffed agency. In this case global climate change and of course coupled to carbon credit tax scam to bleed business and population dry while explaining why you need to stop driving your car and their supporters can continue yachting and jetting from hot tub to heated pool !
#1 I don’t trust any government data at this point either. The BLS, CPI, unemployment rate are all clearly false.
#2. From my personal observation, the valley that I live in has gotten warmer over the past 40 years. So what? I don’t care. Even if global warming is real. It’s not a big deal worth doing anything about, and it’s actually a good thing since more CO2 makes plants grow faster.
HNIC pushes global warming to enrich his communist academic supporters. My really good job with high salary, great benifits and super retirement depend on his funding. Let me think, how should I write this report on global warming? Oh yeah, I’ll publish the truth and piss HNIC off. NOT!
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/other/climate-change-expert-sentenced-32-months-fraud-says-lying-was-f2D11768995
A few years back I heard Goldman Sachs opened up a trading desk for carbon units and that was all I needed to hear. Don’t bother me with the “science”.
Everything the fedgov touches turns to absolute shit. Not long ago, i would have assumed mere structural incompetence, alas now it is obvious that turning everything to shit is by clear and consentious design.
first it was called global warming.
then the numbers didn’t fit the meme, so they changed it to Climate Change, which means something completely different.
The Elites are trying to invent a new religion for the masses, as the old ones no longer hold sway (your reward is in the after life, so be good today)
now the meme is “be good today, or else the weather gods will punish you in the future”,
and please, send us your carbon credit tithing, we need to fly around in jets to study it, when we are not talking pizza shop.
Whatever the government tells you, believe the opposite.