Well that was a bigly miss and doesn’t fit the economic recovery narrative. It fits the Atlanta Fed GDP number of under 1% in the first quarter. The previous two months of jobs gains were revised lower too. So much for that record level of consumer confidence. If these confidence polls were accurate, why would retailers be closing 3,500 stores and declaring bankruptcy at an astounding rate?
Wages remain stagnant. The number of jobs for people between the ages of 35 and 54 actually declined. To give you a real perspective on this awesome economic recovery, the household report shows the country has added 1,699,000 jobs in the last year. That’s 142,000 per month – pretty pitiful considering the working age population grew by 1,646,000 over the same time frame.
Here’s the best part. Over the last year 35 to 54 year olds LOST 319,000 jobs, while those over 55 years old gained 881,000 jobs. So Americans in their prime working years are still losing jobs, while Boomers who didn’t save enough for retirement are being forced to work in low paying Obama service industry shit jobs. The Boomer retirement meme is complete and utter bullshit.
As a cherry on top, the number of people holding multiple jobs went up 138,000 in March to a new all time high of 7.96 million. Of the 1.7 million jobs created in the last year, 503,000 were from multiple job holders.
Trump’s cackling about all the new jobs, declining national debt, and soaring stock market is about to be thrown back in his big fat orange face. Starting a war to distract from domestic policy failure is the oldest trick in the book. It ain’t gonna work this time. Bannon should explain The Fourth Turning to him.
March Payrolls Crumble: Only 98K Jobs Added Despite Slide In Unemployment Rate
And so the reflation trade is dead once again.
So much for that blockbuster ADP report. As we cautioned previously in our payrolls preview, the big risk to today’s payrolls report was to the downside, mostly as a result of the unseasonably cold March weather, and moments ago the BLS confirmed that indeed something snapped in March when only 98K jobs were added, roughly half of the 180K expected. This was the lowest monthly jobs number since May of 2016.
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Worse, both prior months were revised lower. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised down from +238,000 to +216,000, and the change for February was revised down from +235,000 to +219,000. With these revisions, employment gains in January and February combined were 38,000 less than previously reported.
What is surprising is that the poor Establishment Survey number was on the back of a very strong Household Survey, which saw employment rise by 472,000 to 153 million, while the number of unemployed Americans reportedly declined by 326K to a seasonally adjusted 7,202K.
Also confusing, the unemployment rate tumbled to 4.5% vs prior 4.7%; and below the 4.7%, estimate, in a range 4.6%-4.8% from 82 economists surveyed. The underemployment rate 8.9% vs prior 9.2%
There were no changes to the participation rate, which remained at 63% with the number of people not in the labor force barely changed at 94,213 million.
That other closely watched indicator, average hourly earnings, rose in line with expectations at 0.2% m/m, while the annual increased also matched expectations of Y/y 2.7%, dipping modestly from last month’s 2.8%.
Some other details:
- Nonfarm private payrolls rose 89k vs prior 221k; est. 170k, range 125k-270k from 42 economists surveyed
- Manufacturing payrolls rose 11k after rising 26k in the prior month; economists estimated 17k, range -5k to 32k from 22 economists surveyed
And from the report:
Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 98,000 in March, following gains of 219,000 in February and 216,000 in January. Over the month, employment growth occurred in professional and business services (+56,000) and in mining (+11,000), while retail trade lost jobs (-30,000).
In March, employment in professional and business services rose by 56,000, about in line with the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months. Over the month, job gains occurred in services to buildings and dwellings (+17,000) and in architectural and engineering services (+7,000).
Mining added 11,000 jobs in March, with most of the gain occurring in support activities for mining (+9,000). Mining employment has risen by 35,000 since reaching a recent low in October 2016.
In March, employment continued to trend up in health care (+14,000), with job gains in hospitals (+9,000) and outpatient care centers (+6,000). In the first 3 months of this year, health care added an average of 20,000 jobs per month, compared with an average monthly gain of 32,000 in 2016.
Employment in financial activities continued to trend up in March (+9,000) and has increased by 178,000 over the past 12 months.
Construction employment changed little in March (+6,000), following a gain of 59,000 in February. Employment in construction has been trending up since late last summer, largely among specialty trade contractors and in residential building.
Retail trade lost 30,000 jobs in March. Employment in general merchandise stores declined by 35,000 in March and has declined by 89,000 since a recent high in October 2016.
Employment in other major industries, including manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, leisure and hospitality, and government, showed little or no change over the month.
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.3 hours in March. In manufacturing, the workweek edged down by 0.2 hour to 40.6 hours, and overtime edged down by 0.1 hour to 3.2 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 0.1 hour to 33.5 hours.
In March, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 5 cents to $26.14, following a 7-cent increase in February. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 68 cents, or 2.7 percent. In March, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 4 cents to $21.90.
There are yobs to be had. Just stand outside Home Depot at 6 in the morning.
Trump sees the bursting bubble, and is listening to his Neocon buddies on policy now.
He believes that war is the only way to prevent another Great Depression.
…that comment brings Howe and Strauss to mind. Who knew the Four Turnings would be so prophetic.
I’ve viewed it as a warning and not a prophesy for awhile. It seems I was mistaken.
There will be war, and there will be depression.
The fourth turn will not be a video game.
The retail sector is shedding jobs like it’s a recession
By Tonya Garcia and Steve Goldstein
Published: Apr 7, 2017 12:49 p.m. ET
Retailers are shutting down thousands of stores and cutting even more jobs in an effort to meet consumer demand
General merchandise store employment has tumbled.
The U.S. retail industry is shedding jobs at an unparalleled pace outside of recession and stands to lose many more as the industry continues to shrink its physical footprint, a response to the shift in consumer shopping habits away from purchasing in stores and malls in favor of e-commerce.
The U.S. retail sector lost 60,600 jobs in February and March, the worst two months for the sector since the tail end of 2009, according to Labor Department data. The category called general merchandise stores — Target Corp. TGT, -0.95% , J.C. Penney Co. JCP, -2.44% and the like — has shed jobs for five consecutive months.
Media reports have tallied more than 3,500 store closures for 2017, with retailers including J.C. Penney, Sears Holdings Corp. SHLD, -2.22% , Macy’s Inc. M, -0.80% and others announcing that they are shutting doors and making job cuts. Ralph Lauren Corp. RL, -1.08% has outlined the next phase of its turnaround effort, which includes shutting stores and cutting jobs.
Bankruptcies and liquidations have also picked up, with Payless ShoeSource just this week announcing nearly 400 store closures. Wet Seal, Aeropostale Inc. AROPQ, +0.00% , Sports Authority, and Hhgregg Inc. HGGGQ, -10.87% are among the many other retailers that have either filed for bankruptcy or liquidated.
The current state of retail, which is weighed by less foot traffic, more promotions, and increased competition, particularly from Amazon.com Inc. AMZN, -0.02% , suggests that additional closures are on the horizon. The U.S. simply has too many stores, according to a report from Cowen & Company titled “Retail’s Disruption Yields Opportunities – Store Wars!,” which found that up to 2,000 stores should close.
See also: Want to know if your local Payless ShoeSource store is closing?
Read also: Payless ShoeSource bankruptcy is the latest blow for retail bondholders
“[W]e expect online penetration of apparel to increase to 35% to 40% from 20%, yielding closures of 20% at oversized chains,” the report said. Cowen analysts say there are about 1,200 malls in the U.S. and they represent about 15% of retail square footage.
Cowen anticipates that up to about 20%, or 240 malls, will close or be repurposed, with anchor store closures and the rise of digital among the primary drivers.
See also: Struggling shopping malls let high schools, doctors move in where Penney’s used to be
“We believe Macy’s right-size store fleet should be between 550 to 600 doors versus management’s guidance of about 628,” analysts said. Macy’s should close about 21% of their doors, or 153 stores, more than the 100 that management has outlined, the report said.
J.C. Penney has announced plans to close 14% of its stores, or 138 locations, but they should close about 26% of its fleet to reach 700 to 800 stores, the analysts say.
And at Gap Inc. GPS, +0.21% , analysts recommend that the size of the namesake Gap fleet shrink to between 600 and 650 stores from the current 737. Banana Republic, with 539 stores, should cut down to 325 to 375.
See also: Sears is closing stores, but they may not be a done deal for bargains
Read also: From a risk-to-bankruptcy standpoint, the retail business is the new oil & gas
Other companies that could benefit from trimming their store count include Kohl’s Corp. KSS, -0.88% , Abercrombie & Fitch Co. ANF, +0.19% , Ann Taylor and Lane Bryant, which are in the Ascena Retail Group Inc. ASNA, +1.32% portfolio.
I think a lot of what is happening in traditional retail stores may be the result of being replaced by online retailing.
How much I don’t know, but I’m sure it is having a significant effect.
Amazon, from what I hear, is currently challenging Walmart in size and employ’s a lot fewer people to do it.
There’s no real inclusive source of total product sales that I no how to find, but if someone knows of one I’d like to know how to find it to use as a running reference.
E-Commerce sales are 8.3% of total sales. That would mean that brick and mortar store closings are likely due to the lack of disposable income to much of the populace.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ECOMPCTSA
I needed to buy a pogo stick for a grandson’s birthday. Choice: drive across town to the mall, fighting traffic all the way to get to Toys R Us, where there would be one kind of pogo stick that I could buy after searching around the big box and then standing in the cash register line behind nine other people. The alternative was stay on my comfy couch, browse through Amazon’s multiple choices of styles and price ranges, click a keyboard a few times, and then wait for the pogo stick to magically appear on my front porch. This is why malls will disappear and Amazon will one day rule the world.
I get about three or four emails from Sears EVERY DAY. They offer me everything short of a happy ending just so they can use whatever paltry sums they bring in to pay for the crews to dismantle the signs out in front of the malls. I can’t even remember the last time I stepped foot in a Sears- 5, 6 years ago? I’m not sure where they even got my email address but it reeks of desperation if their lead selection are old guys who haven’t bought anything on credit in close to a decade.
I think you may be correct, they’ve shown him the reality and now there is only one choice left- war or economic implosion and he looks like he’s made his choice.
So much for 4-D chess.
“…the household report shows the country has added 1,699,000 jobs in the last year. That’s 142,000 per month – pretty pitiful considering the working age population grew by 1,646,000 over the same time frame.”
What’s wrong with that? We gained more jobs than new people, correct?