Trump’s ‘High-Risk Pool’ Gamble

Infographic: Trump's 'High-Risk Pool' Gamble | Statista You will find more statistics at Statista

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One of the key concerns surrounding the now seemingly imminent repeal and replacement of Obamacare is the fate of those Americans with a preexisting condition. Currently, under the ACA, such people can get cover without having to pay an extra premium.

Trump’s American Health Care Act (AHCA), however, would change that. Under the new law, states would be able to apply for a waiver, allowing them to charge people with preexisting conditions more for their coverage. Those with conditions such as epilepsy or cancer would be removed from the insurance pool and placed in a so-called ‘high-risk pool’ meaning healthier people can enjoy lower premiums.

Those in the high-risk pool would have their extra costs subsidized by the government – paid from a federal budget of $138 billion spread over ten years. Despite being a good idea on paper, some experts warn that the budget may be far too small. If a large proportion of states opt to set up high-risk pools, the money could end up being stretched far too thinly. If this turns out to be the case, the 27 percent of non-elderly adults that have a preexisting condition could find themselves footing the bill in some form.

As the infographic below shows, this situation could end up hurting President Trump‘s supporters the most. When looking at the states with the highest share of people with preexisting conditions, the ‘top’ eleven all voted Trump in 2016. Could high-risk pools end up being a political gamble that doesn’t pay off for Trump?

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10 Comments
Iska Waran
Iska Waran
May 7, 2017 8:30 pm

High risk pools don’t cut aggregate costs. They’re like the riskiest/crappiest tranches of mortgage-backed securities back in 2006. Splitting up risk doesn’t reduce it. Paul Ryan likes high risk pools because Paul Ryan is retarded. All of these mental gymnastics about how to pay for healthcare are pointless unless/until we have cost transparency. At present we have a system built around fake bills. Denninger is right: we need to end the fraud first. If we don’t do that, we might as well go to Single Payer (“Medicare For All”). It’ll suck somewhat, but it’s what the insurers and providers deserve for fucking us over for so long.

Dave
Dave
  Iska Waran
May 7, 2017 9:24 pm

There is transparency. Pick up you explanation of benefits form and see what the doctors and hospitals will really take for their services. Somewhere between $0.18 and $0.38 cents per dollar billed.

WIP
WIP
  Dave
May 7, 2017 10:35 pm

Please explain further.

Iska Waran
Iska Waran
  Dave
May 7, 2017 10:46 pm

That’s true, but if you didn’t have insurance, you’d never even get the EOB, you’d just get the inflated invoice. The full 100%. And while you can shop around for a knee replacement, you can’t shop for emergency services. So you owe the full inflated invoice. It should be (and probably already is) illegal to charge you $20,000 for something for which they’d only charge an insurance company $3,600.

Hagar
Hagar
May 7, 2017 9:13 pm

Don’t recall who posted about the desirability of limiting health care to those who refuse to make lifestyle changes to control/cure those conditions (such as type II diabetes) that are considered pre-existing. Seems like a good idea, so does doing away with health insurance altogether. Not going to happen, nor will a free market system. As long as the government is involved the health care system will evolve to a single payer system. Perhaps in the distant future, with Star Trek medical technology, everyone will be healthy. The question is, will we survive that long?

Dutchman
Dutchman
May 7, 2017 9:18 pm

It’s a racket.

Dave
Dave
May 7, 2017 9:20 pm

“the 27 percent of non-elderly adults that have a preexisting condition could find themselves footing the bill in some form.”
27%? Prior to Obamacare there were about 225,000 people in high risk pools in 35 states. When Obamacare passed the feds set up a high risk pool and picked up another 125,000. If there were more, they weren’t denied insurance but might have had a waiting period of 30-90 days before the particular condition was covered. The average cost in the state pools was $32,000 per year before premiums were taken in to account. $13.8 billion a year should cover that with leftovers for other situations.

Iska Waran
Iska Waran
  Dave
May 7, 2017 10:52 pm

Put another way, insurers have been jacking up overall premiums based on a pretense of high-risk patients, and we know it’s a pretense since high risk patients could be handled through high-risk pools for moderate cost. Of course, making it illegal to NOT buy insurance also facilitated their money grab.

Ari Duhoki
Ari Duhoki
May 8, 2017 8:23 am

Funny I didn’t see California on that “High Risk Pool” list. I wonder how/where they fit in???

james the deplorable wanderer
james the deplorable wanderer
May 8, 2017 2:53 pm

It’s still a racket – some conditions are COMPLETELY curable. My wife had cancer, the treatment was surgery, chemo, radiation – and a menu of maintenance drugs to keep the cancer from coming back. They must work – she’s been cancer-free for about seven years now. If she ever gets cancer again, it would have to be a different kind, and she’s no more likely for a different kind than a new patient to get it.
BUT – since it’s “cancer”, she has a “pre-existing condition” – even though she doesn’t. It’s just an excuse to charge more for services than they could otherwise. Learn first aid, now – the more you can cure of your own / your family’s problems, the more likely you all will survive.