Guest Post by Scott Adams
Let’s take a look at the things that are going well for President Trump, and the things that are not, and see if there is a pattern. Here I will include topics that are not necessarily the president’s accomplishments or faults. I’ll simply describe the current state of things.
Things That Are Positive
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The economy
Trade deals
China relations
Russia (our frenemy) is working with the U.S. on Syria, North Korea
China is putting pressure on North Korea
Jobs
Healthcare progress (more to do)
Supreme Court nominee confirmed
Tax reform maybe
Optimism for an Israeli-Palestinian “deal”
Safe Zones coming along for Syrian refugees
Illegal immigration down over 70% because of Trump’s persuasion alone.
Business confidence high.
Things that are Negative
Unproven allegations of Russian collusion with Trump campaign.
Trump claims he invented the phrase “prime the pump.”
Trump tweeted a warning that Comey better be careful what he says because he might have been taped in the White House. But such recordings haven’t been confirmed. Or denied.
Critics say Trump is crazy.
Trump claimed his campaign had been “wiretapped” by Obama, but it might have been only incidental surveillance. Or not. We’ll probably never know.
Critics say Trump is a loose cannon.
Critics say “words matter” and Trump is careless with words.
Trump’s approval rating is abysmal.
There is “chaos” in the White House
Trump doesn’t study topics in detail.
Trump might fire people on his staff for various reasons.
There is in-fighting with Trump’s staff.
Trump got two scoops of ice cream when others got one.
Trump threatened to end press briefings but probably didn’t mean it.
Trump is influenced by whoever gives him the latest article that is sometimes fake news.
Trump calls the mainstream media fake news.
Trump has criticized the courts, judges, and anyone else you are not supposed to criticize as a president.
Health care didn’t get passed on the first try. And still needs work.
Trump will be impeached or jailed any day now for whatever.
Trump keeps relying on trusted family advisors such as Jared Kushner and Ivanka.
Trump fired Comey as both sides wanted, but his timing raised suspicions, and he talked about it wrong in an interview. Also didn’t coordinate with his communication staff.
Trump says things that do not pass the fact-checking.
Trump doesn’t realize that his business skills don’t translate into government. (This was the same reason people said he couldn’t win the election.)
Things that Might Be Good or Bad (Depending on your Point of View)
Trump is prioritizing jobs over climate risks in the near term.
Trump is reducing government regulations.
Trump is moving responsibility for several topics to states, per the Constitution.
Did you find the pattern?
All the important stuff is trending positive. Trump is not the sole cause of all that goodness, but he hasn’t broken anything important. That counts too. We’ve had plenty of presidents who broke stuff. Think of Nixon’s price caps, Carter’s hostage rescue mission failure, and Bush-the-younger’s Iraq war. When presidents don’t break anything, that’s a big deal
The topics that are problematic for President Trump include unconfirmed gossip, rumors, fake news, irrational worries, imaginary problems, trivial matters, and simple differences in political priorities.
As I recently said on Twitter, President Trump’s approval rating is low, but that can be explained two ways. One explanation is that the president is not doing a good job and people can see it with their own eyes. The other explanation is that citizens are actually grading their own cognition and don’t realize it.
What’s it look like to you?
“Optimism for an Israeli-Palestinian “deal”” – Scott Adams
Really??
The only “deal” ((they)) are going to get is the genocide of the Palestinians and the implementation of the Greater Israel Plan.
((Who)) wants this “deal”?
50% of the people living in Jordon are “palestinians” and the other half are dual Jordanian/palestinian. There have been several offers to create a free, independent area of “palestine” but they never have accepted the existence of Israel and won’t vow not to commit terror or organize another multi-nation attack on Israel.
98.7% of the Middle East is arab/muslim/Persian/ottoman whatever—yet they are frothing at the mouth to destroy the single democratic, pro-western nation that exists.
THIS is why there has been no peace deal–if Israel wanted genocide of “palestinians” they would have long ago ceased to exist.
If you’d like to discuss the complex issue of politics, history, religion and cultural clashes in that tiny fragment of the ME then I’d be happy for intelligent discourse ( I might even agree with you), but comments like “palestinian genocide” are just inane.
PS: I’ve been to both the west bank and Gaza–there is plenty of wealth, luxury resorts and hotels, but like here in the USA, Gaza is like the inner city USA in most areas. They produce nothing, they rely on billions in sympathy dollars from the EU, the USA, the WTO and the #1 contributor of medical care, food, supplies and free loot comes from Israel herself…The Druze, the Armenians, Greeks and yes, jews living in those areas are easily noticed–their walls are painted, they clean away graffiti, they pick up trash, they don’t throw buckets of piss and excrement in the streets and no rotting garbage ( plus the smell)–I’ve seen it…Palestinians equate to the residents of the 30 blocks of squalor, or harlem, Camden, Detroit etc etc
PPS: and over there in the Middle East, they claim that whites in America are committing genocide on blacks and muslims here
javelin,
Are you a ((Zionist))?
The best thing about Trump’s first 100 days…….
They were not Hitlery’s first 100 days.
Let’s discuss the apartheid parasite known as Israel…a leading state sponsor of terrorism, perhaps the only country in the world that has no defined borders, has a history of attacking it’s neighbors and would be sanctioned to oblivion if not for it’s virtual ownership of the US congress. It also happens to be the only country in the middle east that has directly attacked the US.
Israel is a disease that affects the entire world. Pray for it’s early demise.
Please tell us more!
Please tell us how ((they)) gave the USS Liberty a proper Goyim blessing!
Pretty good analysis by Adams.
The economy is the scary thing,if it goes south so will Trump’s success.
I think Scott still may have few of Trump’s ball hairs stuck in his teeth. I’ve gone from cautiously optimistic in January to really hoping that growing feeling of grabbing my ankles, yet again, is wrong.
The economy is better? Where? It seems they’re using the same statistical bullshit that they have been using for years only nobody is questioning it now. New jobs are still nowhere near breaking even. The quality of those jobs is mostly abysmal. Would you like ketchup with those fries? The number of not working people isn’t included in the unemployment numbers. It’s all smoke & mirrors. I’m trying to scratch up a quick $1500 for long overdue dental work that’s become critical & it’s strongly a buyer’s market on anything non-vital. Pennies on the dollar even for quality guns now that “nobody’s going to take them away.” Maybe that’s why retail is in the crapper. Maybe Amazon is a symptom rather than the cause.
“Russia (our frenemy) is working with the U.S. on Syria, North Korea”
A better write: “US is working with Russia on Syria ever since Russia informed US of no fly zones for US”
“Trump calls the mainstream media fake news.”
This is a positive, not a negative. Trump supporters like it.
Fire the Banksters and Kushners: go to head of class but keep them and drown in the Swamp.
So far I like what Trump is doing, how he is doing it, and like it at least as much or maybe even more than the left hates it.
I never expected either perfection or an instant change in the direction of the country, neither of which is possible.
I did hope he would receive at least some support from the Republicans though, instead of their teaming up with the Democrats, Leftists, and Global Elite to defeat him wherever they can but that is the fault of the Republicans in Congress, not of Trump who should be able to count on them for support.
Stockman: This Market Is Pricing “Perfection For All Of Eternity”
Authored by David Stockman via The Daily Reckoning blog,
There’s just no other way to say it: the market is insanely overvalued right now.
The so-called recovery has already lasted 96 months. It’s the longest recovery in history. It’s also the weakest. But you’d never know it from the stock market.
Right now the S&P is trading at something like 24 times trailing earnings. That is what I would call the nosebleed section of history. And it’s absolutely not justified by fundamental economics.
What the market is saying is we have reached the point of full employment forever. There will never be another recession or any kind of economic surprise or dislocation. There is no reason why the market should be even near today’s levels if markets were allowed to function normally.
The market is pricing itself for perfection for all of eternity.
Nonsense!
The fact is, the real economy apart from the canyons of Wall Street is in very poor shape. The Commerce Department recently reported that first quarter GDP growth came in at just 0.7%. The report also revealed the slowest first quarter for household spending since 2009.
Some economists call that “stall speed.” After 94 months of the weakest recovery in modern history, there is no other way to describe it.
Not exactly perfection.
We are at the end of a 20-year credit bubble that has basically inflated the world economy beyond any sustainable level. We’re now facing the day of reckoning in which we’re going to suffer from a huge deflation for years to come.
The global economy is in a place we’ve never been before. We have never experienced eight years of effectively zero money market rates, even during the lowest point of the Depression in the 1930s. And we’ve never had a credit bubble in the world economy anything close to what we have now.
In 20 years, central banks have taken their balance sheets from about $2 trillion in 1995 to $21 trillion today.
And the global economy is now buried under a $225 trillion mountain of debt, if you can imagine a number that large.
I recently came back from a 10-day trip to China and I can tell you that is the world’s greatest Ponzi scheme. It is going to collapse.
So put all of those things together and you have a market that’s waiting to roll over.
Bubbles are popping up in real estate again. We’re also seeing high levels of defaults in student loans and the auto industry.
And one subject I’ve been following lately is the collapse of the retail industry. I call it the “Retail Apocalypse.”
Even the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) seems to have gotten the word about the horrific condition of the malls. During the last few months, it has reported a 60,000 decline in the seasonally maladjusted job count. And a 758,000 drop in the actual count since the December holiday peak.
By the way, that compares to only a 644,000 drop over December-March during the prior year.
Even the Wall Street propaganda machine admits:
“… retailers continue to struggle and dead malls pile up in characterless suburbs across America.”
The plunge in department store sales — which comprise the anchor and driver of 70% of mall traffic — have not lessened in the slightest. As of the most recent reading, the monthly sales rate was down 30% from the pre-crisis peak.
That’s in nominal dollars. In real terms, department store sales have fallen more than 50% since the early years of this century.
Moreover, what is happening is not merely cyclical in the traditional sense. Debt-encumbered American consumers are tapped-out. They are dropping, not shopping, because this entire “recovery” has been wasted. That is, consumers can’t spend energetically because there has been no significant deleveraging since the 2008 crisis.
That in turn means the Keynesian assumption of Washington’s economic policy has again been refuted. That is the belief that consumer spending is the engine of prosperity.
In fact, notwithstanding a 5X gain in the Fed’s balance sheet — from $900 billion on the eve of the Lehman meltdown to $4.5 trillion today — our Keynesian central bankers simply could not cause consumers to borrow and spend their way to prosperity.
That’s because, as I’ve pointed out many times, they are impaled on Peak Debt.
The only significant retail spending growth since the crisis has occurred among the top 20% of households. But history proves beyond a shadow of doubt that when the stock market collapses, the credit cards will go back into the wallet.
In fact, there is some pretty stunning evidence that this is already happening — the tail end of the Trump-O-Mania rally notwithstanding. The best data on what consumers are actually doing is provided not by the government statistical mills, but by Bank of America from its massive base of credit and debit cards.
In February, sales at department stores plunged 15% versus the prior year. That’s the largest decline ever recorded.
In a word, the retail mall sector is facing harsh headwinds and the worst of both worlds. That is, flagging demand and immense over-capacity.
It now appears that nearly 150 million of retail square footage could close during 2017 — an all-time record.
So in a desperate effort to cope, retailers everywhere are slashing prices, increasing merchandising and promotion expenses in an attempt to fill empty stores with service and entertainment venues.
This is an unfolding disaster that hasn’t gotten anywhere near the attention it deserves.
On a broader scale, markets are about to collide with reality.
The S&P could easily drop 40% or more to 1,600 or 1,300 once the fantasy ends. When this crazy notion that there is going to be some Trump fiscal stimulus ends, it will it will put the illusion to rest once and for all.
The stimulus is not going to happen. Congress can’t pass a tax cut that large without a budget resolution that incorporates $10 trillion or $15 trillion in debt over the next decade. It’s just not going to pass Congress.
And I think the post-election “reflation trade” is the greatest sucker’s rally we have ever seen.
There will be no bid for stocks once the panic sets in. They’re going to hit an air pocket. The S&P 500 is going to drop by hundreds and hundreds of points as we drift into this unexpected crisis.
The main thing is get out of the markets. They’re unstable. I don’t believe there’s any credible reason to own stock at this point in the game. The entire market is simply way overvalued. They may squeak out another two or three percent on the upside. But stocks are facing a 30% or 40% down.
In other words, the risk/reward quotient is horrible. The bottom line is that all this is coming to a halt.
The Fed has finally run out of dry powder. It’s getting out of the bond buying business. It’s even talking about initiating the shrinkage of its balance sheet. The central banks are finally getting to the end of the road.
There isn’t going to be any more money printing, and that is the harsh reality the markets must face.
Head for the exits now, while you still can!
I wonder if Adams is a buyer of the market at these levels. Any blowhard can have an opinion. Let me know when he plunks down a wad on his theory.
One thing that I continue to see is the fact that President Trump has a nack for continually probing the enemy and causing the go ballistic. Sun Tzu probably has something in his great book about this but if you keep your enemy off balance they cannot successfully mount a pre-planned attack very well. This will also manifest itself in the progressive clowns continuing to scream, whine, snivel, cry and self-immolate on any near media source which is also a good thing as the world sees them for what they really are……unbalanced apparatchiks who are really feeling the pressure as their world disappears in front of them. Next thing you know they will all be seen being pulled into a black van like hitlary was this summer……
As long as he keeps pissing off the talking heads on the boob tube, he’s doing the right thing.
I’m sure he’s read Sun Tzu.
Kokoda–
“Russia (our frenemy) is working with the U.S. on Syria, North Korea”
Did you guys see where N Korea lobbed a missile at the Russian base in Val howeverthehellyouspellit ick?Maybe the Russkies really are helping us.
So the economy is a good thing? And how many malls and anchor stores are closing? Department stores down 15% following years of double-digit declines? I’m surprised no one else pushed back on this little nugget.
Have to go about 300 miles down I-10 and I-75 in Florida each Quarter; today the semi traffic was about half normal and restaurants were almost all Seniors. Saw what must be a semi-junk yard near Madison Fl but about half looked like they were still new (not dead, just laid-off).
Give me a break. Donald J. Trump has not read Sun Tzu. The only thing the Pres and “The Art of War” have in common is both have a chapter 11.
Ouch-but funny.
Trump must have mixed up the author of his presidential strategy.
He thought the author was Sun Tzu.
It actually was ((Some Jew))!
Anybody else getting tired of the constant Trump bashing from comedians and the media? It’s fucking unrelenting.
If public will have a chance to learn every day the positive aspects of D Trump presidency his rating will be totally different. We are constantly fed with the gossips, fake news and suspicions. What is happening is out of control and even difficult to discribe. Yes, he is different, but he cares about country and does all he can to make it better.