Hurricane Irma Strenghtens To “Extremely Dangerous” Category 5, Eastern Caribbean On Lockdown

Tyler Durden's picture

 

Irma has strengthened to an “extremely dangerous” Category 5 hurricane, the National Hurricane Center said in its advisory at 7:45am AST. According to the Hurricane center, NOAA and Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate Hurricane Irma has intensified into an “extremely dangerous” Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum winds of 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts.

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As of this moment, the hurricane is located 270 miles east of Antigua, moving west at 14 mph. States of emergency were declared in Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and all of Florida while people on various Caribbean islands boarded up homes and rushed to find last-minute supplies, forming long lines outside supermarkets and gas stations. This morning the Dominican Republic has issued a Hurricane Watch from Cabo Engano to northern border with Haiti; Tropical Storm Watch from south of Cabo Engao to Isla Saona.

According to meteorologists, Irma is the 17th hurricane in the Atlantic on record to have max winds >= 175 mph. Atlantic max wind record is Allen (1980) at 190 mph.

Ultimately, the question is how strong Irma will be when it inevitably makes landfall on the Eastern Seaboard, somewhere in the vicinity of Miami.

Meanwhile, officials across the northeastern Caribbean canceled airline flights, shuttered schools and urged people to hunker down indoors as Hurricane Irma barreled toward the region, now as an “extremely powerful” Category 5 storm. Irma’s maximum sustained winds increased to near 175 mph early Tuesday.

According to AP, emergency officials warned that the storm could dump up to 10 inches (25 centimeters) of rain, unleash landslides and dangerous flash floods and generate waves of up to 23 feet (7 meters) as the storm drew closer.

“We’re looking at Irma as a very significant event,” Ronald Jackson, executive director of the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency, said by phone. “I can’t recall a tropical cone developing that rapidly into a major hurricane prior to arriving in the central Caribbean.”

U.S. residents were urged to monitor the storm’s progress in case it should turn northward toward Florida, Georgia or the Carolinas. “This hurricane has the potential to be a major event for the East Coast. It also has the potential to significantly strain FEMA and other governmental resources occurring so quickly on the heels of (Hurricane) Harvey,” Evan Myers, chief operating officer of AccuWeather, said in a statement.

In the Caribbean, the director of Puerto Rico’s power company predicted that storm damage could leave some areas of the U.S. territory without electricity for four to six months. But “some areas will have power (back) in less than a week,” Ricardo Ramos told radio station Notiuno 630 AM.

The power company’s system has deteriorated greatly amid Puerto Rico’s decade-long recession, and the territory experienced an islandwide outage last year. Meanwhile, the governor of the British Virgin Islands urged people on Anegada island to leave if they could, noting that Irma’s eye was expected to pass 35 miles (56 kilometers) from the capital of Road Town.

“This is not an opportunity to go outside and try to have fun with a hurricane,” U.S. Virgin Islands Gov. Kenneth Mapp warned. “It’s not time to get on a surfboard.”

Antigua and Anguilla shuttered schools Monday, and government office closures were expected to follow. On the tiny island of Barbuda, hotel manager Andrea Christian closed the Palm Tree Guest House. She said she was not afraid even though it would be her first time facing a storm of that magnitude.

“We can’t do anything about it,” Christian said by phone, adding that she had stocked up on food and water. “We just have to wait it out.”

Both Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands expected 4 inches to 8 inches (10-20 centimeters) of rain and winds of 40-50 mph with gusts of up to 60 mph. Puerto Rico Gov. Ricardo Rossello activated the National Guard, canceled classes for Tuesday and declared a half-day of work. He also warned of flooding and power outages. “It’s no secret that the infrastructure of the Puerto Rico Power Authority is deteriorated,” Rossello said.

Meteorologist Roberto Garcia warned that Puerto Rico could experience hurricane-like conditions in the next 48 hours should the storm’s path shift. “Any deviation, which is still possible, could bring even more severe conditions to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands,” Garcia said. The U.S. Virgin Islands said the school year would open Friday instead of Tuesday.

Gov. Kenneth Mapp said most hotels in the U.S. territory were at capacity with some 5,000 tourists. He noted the storm was expected to pass 40 miles (64 kilometers) north of St. Thomas and warned that the island could experience sustained winds as high as 80 mph

“It’s not a lot of distance,” he said, adding: “It could affect us in a tremendous way. I’m not saying that to alarm anyone or scare anyone, but I want the Virgin Islands to be prepared.”

Residents on the U.S. East Coast were urged to monitor the storm’s progress due to the possibility it could turn northward toward Florida, Georgia or the Carolinas. “This hurricane has the potential to be a major event for the East Coast. It also has the potential to significantly strain FEMA and other governmental resources occurring so quickly on the heels of (Hurricane) Harvey,” Evan Myers, chief operating officer of AccuWeather, said in a statement.

In Miami-Dade County, the early scramble was on to stock up on hurricane supplies, reports CBS Miami. People were shopping for gasoline, generators, food, batteries, and everything else they’d need get by were Irma to hit the region hard.

“We are not yet at the height of hurricane season and people have not taken steps to get prepared yet,” Miami-Dade County Emergency Management Director Curt Sommerhoff said Monday. “We are encouraging them to take those steps today.” Miami-Dade officials were to meet Tuesday to assess the danger.

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31 Comments
hardscrabble farmer
hardscrabble farmer
September 5, 2017 9:59 am

This ought to bring unfettered joy to the Global Climate Change contingent.

Incoming front page articles to follow.

Anonymous
Anonymous
  hardscrabble farmer
September 5, 2017 1:54 pm

Especially since it comes so quickly after withdrawing from the Paris accord.

TJF
TJF
September 5, 2017 10:00 am

It looks like some of the Leeward islands will take a pounding. Keeping an eye on this one. If it makes landfall in the US, I am hoping it is somewhere other than where I live. Looks like the latest guesses south Florida is the most likely.

ragman
ragman
September 5, 2017 10:35 am

I also hope it hits somewhere else. Somewhere other than South Fl.

kokoda - AZEK (Deck Boards) doesn't stand behind its product
kokoda - AZEK (Deck Boards) doesn't stand behind its product
September 5, 2017 10:39 am

The European Model generally provides the best forecast.

Figures 4, 5, and 6 show the dramatic shift southwestward and its implications for landfall in three different configurations of ensemble models (GFS, Euro, and Euro high-probability).
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/threat-increasing-cuba-florida-intensifying-irma

TJF
TJF

One of the lines on Fig 6 comes ashore nearly right on top of me. Looks like pretty much all of the models have it making landfall somewhere in the U.S.

kokoda - AZEK (Deck Boards) doesn't stand behind its product
kokoda - AZEK (Deck Boards) doesn't stand behind its product
September 5, 2017 10:44 am

edit: The Hurricane Aerosol and Microphysics Program (HAMP): A HAMP Contribution

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNeOTOytEeA

suzanna
suzanna

Thank you Koko! I’m saving it for later on the Utube.

I have family in Fl. and “there is no bottled water to be
had in all of southern Fl”. This from store clerks, “trucks
are going to be coming”, but the stuff gets bought out
immediately. Plan? Go to Costco/Walmart at 3AM and
wait for the delivery.

Just exactly what prepping is supposed to avoid.

unit472
unit472
September 5, 2017 10:46 am

I’m SCREWED if Irma comes up the Florida peninsula. I have to have hemo dialysis 3 times per week. I’ve got hurricane shutters for my condo and am trying to get some help to put them up but since I am right on Sarasota Bay with boat slips literally 3 floors below me I’m uncertain how effective they will be. Will probably go to the elementary school that is supposed to be a shelter as getting a hotel/motel room won’t help as they will lose power too and I will need to keep in contact with emergency services and the official shelter is probably the best way to do that. I’ve got a small generator and supplies so IF I can survive the storm and my condo building is not destroyed I should manage provided I can get dialysis within a week or so otherwise this could kill me.

Anonymous
Anonymous
  unit472
September 5, 2017 1:56 pm

You considered going somewhere else for a while, just in case?

RiNS
RiNS
  unit472
September 5, 2017 2:14 pm

Is it too late to get on the road or fly out to a place inland away from this. Stay safe unit. I will be thinking about and all the rest of the TBP’ers in the storm’s path.

Gusting to 215 mph, that is hard to comprehend.

If it was me my car would be on the road the Arkansas right now. Don’t know how you folks down south do it. Here in this part of the world we curse winter. Still, at least for the most part weather isn’t a life threatening situation.

unit472
unit472
  RiNS
September 5, 2017 4:21 pm

My wife died last August and I don’t have any family left . I would have to have a dialysis center to go to should I fly out of Florida. Here is my plan for now. I will go on Sunday to the parking garage of Sarasota Memorial Hospital. It is a secure multi level concrete structure and, based on the forecast at this time, should be reachable. I will hang out in the hospital overnight when Irma passes over this part of the state. My scheduled dialysis is for Monday morning. If the dialysis center is open and roads open I will make my way there. If not I will go to the hospital admissions desk explain the situation and see if they will do it there. Don’t think they can say no.

RiNS
RiNS
  unit472
September 5, 2017 6:05 pm

All I can say is good luck.

Rise Up
Rise Up
  unit472
September 5, 2017 10:33 pm

@unit472, go to or contact the hospital now so you will know exactly what your options are. You will sleep better until the storm hits.

EL Cibernetico
EL Cibernetico
  unit472
September 5, 2017 10:34 pm

Unit, what if nobody makes it to the hospital? Triage might screw you.
Flying out sounds like a better tactic.

TampaRed
TampaRed
  unit472
September 6, 2017 11:41 am

472,
did you find a place to go?
i think this is moot because the storm seems to finally be making the right(eastward) turn but let us know if you’re ok.

suzanna
suzanna
  unit472
September 5, 2017 7:04 pm

Oh Unit, that is bad news. Good luck.
Suzanna

rhs jr
rhs jr
September 5, 2017 11:16 am

If Irma destroyed all the monuments in New Orleans, it would be an act of God instead of Bigoted Racist so I’d be OK with that. PS Morans: there are Civil War Monuments at Natural Bridge in Wakulla (usually pronounced Will Kill Ya), in Olustee and in Marianna; all three in memory of the locals who defeated three different Union Army attempts to attack Tallahassee; ya’ll Useless Idiots come on down to the Panhandle to get some more of that for yourselves, ya hear?

starfcker
starfcker
September 5, 2017 11:38 am

In the last 24 hours, this thing has morphed from a run of the mill, Cape Verde September Hurricane to potentially the most catastrophic natural disaster in our lifetimes. Irma is a beast, 180 mph sustained winds, and no topography, wind shear, or cold water to slow her down. Toss in an unprecedented South to North right angle turn, and you have the makings of hell on earth, if that turn is in the wrong spot. Worse case would be Irma coming straight up the east coast of Florida, home to millions. We have a concentrated population on the lower part of the penninsula, and our modern roads stop at just north of West Palm beach. If the storm comes from the south, there is no place to go. We just don’t have enough roads. I’m sending everyone out tomorrow. Thursday will be too late. Chances of this scenario, I don’t know, one in ten? But if it happens, there won’t be a South Florida left on the map. It is unthinkable. And at the moment, it’s reality.

BL
BL
  starfcker
September 5, 2017 11:50 am

Star – Board up and get the hell out of there man.

TJF
TJF
  BL
September 5, 2017 12:05 pm

The good part of hurricanes is that there is time to prepare and/or evacuate unlike tornadoes or earthquakes that are tougher to predict. Hurricane Hazel came ashore where I live back in the 50’s and pretty much wiped the place off the map. Not many pre-Hazel buildings still standing close to the ocean here. If Irma ends up heading my way, I will not be here when it arrives.

Anonamus
Anonamus
  starfcker
September 5, 2017 1:53 pm

Erma – Gusting to 215 mph – There are numerous county roads throughout Florida that can be utilized if you become trapped on the freeways or main roads. A good compass, cellphone, and Google Maps would help in navigating out of the area if that’s the case.

Accuweather.com or similar site can assist in determining the location of the storm.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/southern-florida/weather-radar-interactive

suzanna
suzanna
  starfcker
September 5, 2017 7:07 pm

I know, I know…everyday traffic is insane on the way to and
from Tampa, let alone the city roads to get to the highway.
87′ in S. Fl. right now/west coast.

BB
BB
September 5, 2017 12:03 pm

I still remember hurricane Hogo and the damage it did . Charlotte NC is 4-5 hours away from where it came ashore and the damage was massive.So being hours away is no guarantee you will be safe.If you see it’s coming your way get the hell away if you can.In other words head north.

starfcker
starfcker
September 5, 2017 12:24 pm

Bea, the reality is, because of our constricted roads north/south, I think Thursday is too late to evacuate. This is one of those get the women/children/elderly out now, and the rest of us will just have to figure it out. Panic will set in this place by tomorrow. That’s an unimaginable storm, on an unthinkable track. I’ve been on the phone all morning, most people can’t grasp this, they have no reference point. We’ll have to see what happens.https://mobile.twitter.com/DanLinden/status/905089688129736704/photo/1

rhs jr
rhs jr
September 5, 2017 2:50 pm

If there is excessive rain like Harvey, the N/S Florida highways would have multiple areas (and neighborhoods) under deep water before I-4; and like after Atlanta wrecks, all the secondary roads will be clogged. Know where the nearest high ground is if your house is low. Irma (185 mph now) is not Camille (200 mph at Biloxi) but Andrew was only 175 mph; you need to be inside a shelter by the time the wind is 50 mph. I hate to think about the rest of Sept-Oct-Nov!

Rise Up
Rise Up
  rhs jr
September 5, 2017 10:37 pm

Hurricane Andrew created 10 years worth of trash in 24 hours. What a nightmare.

BL
BL
September 5, 2017 3:26 pm

Unit472- Would it help to call Florida Dept. of Health and ask what is the procedure for Dialysis and Oxygen patients in a disaster? There may be a list for priority evac so the NG or responders could pick you up. I’m thinking HHS will take at least 5 days to set up medical assistance locations. Don’t wait on the feds on this one.

Florida Dept. of Health- PH# (850)245-4444

suzanna
suzanna
  BL
September 5, 2017 7:17 pm

BL,
that was good! Smartie, and kind.

get used to disappointment
get used to disappointment
September 5, 2017 9:12 pm

Because of full moon and higher tides this week ahead of Irma, should be some excellent treasure hunting on the beaches afterwards.

Overthecliff
Overthecliff
September 5, 2017 9:59 pm

These storms are great distractions for thePTB. Expect some real initiatives on their part while this is going on.