How to Determine If You Should Talk About Politics in Public

Guest Post by Scott Adams

When candidate Trump first set about the job of redefining politics (and reality) back in 2015, people had lots of predictions about how things would turn out. One year isn’t long enough to know everything we need to know about his presidency, but it’s long enough to to check some of our predictions. As a public service, I put together a list of predictions that various people made about Trump that you can use to evaluate your own predictive powers. Count the number of items on the list that you once predicted would be true. I’ll tell you how to evaluate your score at the end.

Did you once believe…

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Trump will never win the GOP nomination.

Trump will never win the presidency.

Stocks will drop if Trump is elected.

President Trump will deport ten million illegal immigrants.

Trump will be gone (impeached, jailed, or quit) by end of 2017.

Trump’s immigration ban on several Muslim countries will be found unconstitutional.

Trump colluded with Russia, and that’s a crime.

Trump obstructed justice (a crime) by firing Comey.

Trump’s skills as a “con man” might get him elected but it won’t transfer into doing the job of president.

Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel will cause huge problems.

Trump’s tweeting will cause huge problems.

GOP will never embrace Trump.

Trump will get nothing important done.

Trump will not work effectively with leaders of other countries.

GOP senators will vote against GOP priorities because of President Trump’s mean tweets.

Trump will not nominate qualified judges to the Supreme Court.

Trump is incompetent.

Presidential approval polls are a good predictor of how a president will perform.

The military won’t follow Trump’s orders.

GDP will never stay above 3%.

— end —

I didn’t get any of those predictions wrong. But if you got 15 or more wrong, you might want to consider never saying anything about politics out loud again for the rest of your life. Just a suggestion.

Okay, okay. I know you are quibbling with a few items I included on the list. Maybe you think the bad news for Trump — such as the alleged Russia problems — will sink Trump eventually. We can revisit this list next year. But if you are wrong for three years straight — about almost everything Trump-related — please adjust your confidence in your predictive powers accordingly.

If you got 15 or more of those predictions wrong, please consider reading a copy of my book, Win Bigly, to learn how to use what I call the Persuasion Filter to predict better.