Guest Post by Joe Guzzardi
Good and possibly great news: the U.S. birthrate continues to trend lower, now at the lowest on record since 1920, the year when the federal government first gathered and stored reliable statistics.
For the most recent year, the fertility rate dropped to 62 births per 1,000, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and its National Center for Health Statistics. This is less than half of the peak of the Baby Boom in 1957, when there were 122.7 births per 1,000.
Looking at a micro picture, the birthrate among foreign-born women also continues to trend lower, although slowly, and still remains “markedly higher than those of U.S.-born women,” accounting for 23 percent of the babies born in the U.S., according to the Pew Research Center.
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The multi-year trend downwards should be seen as a positive, but alarmists, expansionists and immigration advocates hail high birth rates, viewing a declining population as a negative. They suggest that declining birth rates, including in the immigrant community, could have dire long-term economic and social policy consequences. They maintain that immigration provides a growing, taxpaying workforce to support entitlement programs for an aging U.S. baby-boom generation.
The pro-growth claims are false. Let’s debunk by starting with separating fact from fiction about the immigrant population’s age.
From a March 2017 Migration Policy Institute report: “The median age of immigrants was 44.4 years, compared to 36.1 years for the native born.” And from the National Review, “One in five family members brought in through chain immigration is more than 50 years old.”
The case, then, for high immigration so that younger workers’ tax payments will support federal programs for aging Americans doesn’t hold up when a lot of grandparents are mixed into the formula. While immigration doesn’t transform America into a younger nation, it does make it more crowded. Immigrants and births to immigrants pushed the foreign-born U.S. population to 45 million in 2015, and is expected to balloon to 78 million by 2065.
As for the younger immigrants, they grow old too, a rarely mentioned reality, but one which The New York Times, atypically, addressed in its story, “Immigrant Struggles Compounded by Old Age.” Because they earn “significantly less” during their working lives than native-born, according to the Times article, two out of every three elderly New York immigrants live below the poverty line and need more public and private financial aid.
Scrutinized in their totality, arguments for more growth through immigration and births to immigrants don’t hold. Going forward, the U.S. will not create enough jobs for native-born Americans, and certainly not enough for a growing, unsustainably high legal immigrant population. The environmental community must take up the challenge that naturalist David Attenborough suggested – to lead the call for a courageous discussion about the nation-changing long-term consequences of high population growth which drives migration.
In his speech to the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce, Attenborough called the concept that older people will indefinitely need ever-more young people, who will in turn grow old and need even more young people, “an obvious ecological Ponzi scheme” which will, as these schemes all do, blow up.
In the U.S., the overpopulation-driven Ponzi scheme that Attenborough identifies has reached the brink, a point at which the options are slowing growth or collapse.
Duh. This has been obvious for decades. The prime purpose immigration and work visas was to prop up the social security scam. It didn’t work.
Ponzi fail…Immigrants cost $300 billion/yr to taxpayers, remit lots of money back to their real countries…
With a collapse and including the standard of living, the low IQ immigrants can start small businesses across the country with Honey Wagons.
The purpose of opening the borders has never had anything to do with “bolstering an aging America”.
That was the thinnest of fig leaves.
Correct. It had to do with loading them up with welfare and sending them shopping. Clinton’s Third Way. Using the poor to transfer tax money into corporate coffers. Doing well by doing good. Only problem is those damn poor people don’t breed as fast as corporate America can imagine the profits. Luckily, there’s a world full of poor people out there, if we could just get them here. Course it could be expensive to give all those new poor people welfare. So they came up with a new slogan, deficits don’t matter
https://www.wsj.com/articles/elderly-in-u-s-are-projected-to-outnumber-its-children-for-first-time-1520967362
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Everything we have been told about Immigration are nothing but damn Lies .The whole plan was / is to do away with the white Anglo-Saxon majority so the people in power can further gut our Constitution Especially the 2 amendment.The people in power know they can better manipulate the black / brown people as a weapon against the white majority.You see them do it every day. They really fear white people uniting to challenge Their sinister plans.
Afraid so…only talking heads ever pretended to believe this BS.
If all these immigrants were Republicans or Libertarians, our borders would look like Checkpoint Charlie and they’d machine-gun all daring to cross.
Only a Keynesian economist could come up with the ridiculous idea that 85-IQ immigrants can contribute more than their net present value cost to a Welfare State. We have peak immigration right before an explosion in AI and robotics renders even more labor redundant. This is a recipe for future social unrest and is exactly what the Progs want.
I never give money to “save the children” type charities. All that does is contribute to the world overpopulation problem.
Infinite growth on a finite planet with dwindling resources? What could possibly go wrong? Guns, grub, gold (silver)! Get it while you can and save it for the coming monsoon.
Adding Peters to pay previously added Pauls is ponzi. Where the adds come from adds nothing to this ‘creative’ (destructive) additiveness.
Sunk cost fallacy’s, a treble hook.
The fishers of men are hooked by it not being their money.
The men fished are hooked by ‘I paid in’ & by it not being their money (aka ‘too good to be true – – so sign me up!).
Plus an extra, bonus, hook: I’ve gotten used to OPM, & that familiarity has bred contempt for honesty\integrity: I’ve earned it, deserve it, got a right to it…don’t ya’ dare touch my “transfer pmt.”
I found a hole (deep spot) in a swamp one time. The water was fairly boiling with spawning alligator gar. I cast in a bare, unbaited, treble hook. Immediately had 3 on line. Ever seen a gator gar? Prehistoric looking.
Fundamental human dishonesty is also prehistoric.
Gambling addicts, other liars, can’t help throwing good money after bad (or in this time of fiat, worse money after bad).
Emotional\psychological weaklings…suckers suckin’ down bare hooks…feature, not bug. Inner, & outer, Madoffs, everywhere, everywhen.
Drain the swamp? hahahah!
Well the disease vectors are increasing. Do you suppose the downward trend has anything to do with Obamacare giving substandard medicine to invaders? Those poison pills and mercury laden vaccines must make you sick if you have forty or fifty undiagnosed bacteria living inside you I’d expect.