Via Investment Research Dynamics
“Today’s job numbers might be the biggest disaster I’ve ever seen reported. This Fall could get real ugly real fast. The deterioration of the participation rate is so big it makes me suspicious of earlier numbers.” – John Titus, producer of Best Evidence videos.
Titus goes on to say, “”The Household Survey” is showing a net loss of 1.47 million jobs year-over-year and a Labor Force reduction north of 2 million [YoY]. CNBC headline: ‘Economy adds more jobs than expected.’”
The employment report is unquestionably the most manipulated economic report issued by the Government. The content of the the headline on which the mainstream media bases its broadcast and analysis of the report is entirely disconnected from the actual data contained in the report. The damning data that no one in the financial media or Wall Street seems to be able to find is at the top of the BLS’ report:
As you can see, the “civilian labor force”declined by 469,000 people in August from July. The number of “employed” dropped 423,000. The “not in labor force” increased by nearly 700,000. With these facts in mind (“facts” at least as far as the BLS numbers contain any shards of credibility), how can the Government claim that 201,000 “jobs were created” in August? How can CNBC say the “economy created more jobs than expected?” Based on the numbers in the details of the BLS report, it looks like, between the decline in the number of people employed and the decline in those not counted as part of the labor force, the economy shed over 1 million jobs.
Titus remarked to me that, in terms of manipulating the data to make the headline report look positive, this is the worst report he’s ever scrutinized: “In terms of people leaving the labor force, it sure looks like earlier data was was manipulated to hell and back and the BLS just couldn’t hide it any longer. The deltas are f—ing crazy.”
By the way, has anyone besides me noticed that the BLS calls this report the, “Employment Situation Report?” What does that even mean?
By Karl Denninger
Employment: Mother of God
Ok, I know I tweeted that this would be delayed, but I think it needs publication now — I may have to come back and revisit it, but for the moment… here it is:
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 201,000 in August, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, and
mining.
No it didn’t.
Note the blue line swan-dive at the end. The Household Survey reported a net loss of 1.465 million jobs, and a net gain of 2.048 million people leaving the labor force!
To find a worse monthly number on the employed figure you have to go back to January of 2011 (January is often a large firing month due to the holiday temporary workers being fired.) To find a worse number on people leaving the labor force you must go back to…… uh…. beyond the limits of my data table.
In other words this is the worst (largest) addition to not-in-labor-force since at least January of 1999!
The employment:population ratio confirms:
Even among the seasonally adjusted numbers (which I don’t use) in the household survey the job loss was catastrophic, registering 423,000 jobs lost!
As a note August usually is a negative number by about half of what it was this time, as the seasonal summer workers (amusement parks, etc) leave work to go back to school. Sometimes this winds up in September’s numbers to some degree but the majority of it is historically recorded in August, so it’s not unusual to get a negative household print. However, to get one this large, confirmed by the seasonally adjusted number, says that the “Establishment” survey figures are complete crap — or entirely made up, especially when it is confirmed by an addition to those exiting the workforce in record numbers.
Especially ugly as well is the fact that among the educational attainment figures “some college” saw enormous losses — while the other buckets, including those with no diploma, did not and some even saw gains.
I smell a data problem here folks since the figures don’t jive internally. Which part of the data is bad is the open question; if the BLS revises their data, or if I can suss it out, I will post an updated Ticker on this. If the Household Survey is accurate, however, and especially if it confirms next month then we are on the cusp of a material downward economic event and possibly a dislocation.
Following the sacred Carlin rule I believe NOTHING the gov’t tells me. Not from the BLS, the orange crusader, bob woodward, cory booger-nobody. But I can tell you that here in northern Georgia the economy is smoking. There are hiring signs everywhere and ground being torn up at every turn. A myopic view for sure but there it is.
What this may mean for employment numbers I know not but if you go to the National Hurricane Center’s website at the end of next week it looks like Florence will be a Cat 4 hurricane and heading right at the Carolina’s shore.
As I posted earlier this week– 105 million non-government, full time employees cannot continue to pay for the seniors, children under 18, our bloated government drones and associated workers and the 102 million “not in the labor force.” Add in millions of illegals working off the books or day labor untaxed, graduates into the workforce and seniors not retiring and 200,000 “new jobs” can’t even cover the population growth.
To explain the insanity and ridiculousness of how unemployment is measured– by the current criteria used to measure unemployment, we could have 100% of the population quit their jobs, go home and sit on their asses, and 18 months later when nobody qualifies for any govt checks, the “unemployment” would be at 0% with nobody actually employed.
PS: As an “in your face” to Trump touting these phony numbers– I caught a bit of Fox business channel yesterday around 3 PM, a Democratic senator was saying almost verbatim what we were all saying when Oh-bama was prez………… “fake employment with govt adjustments, fake GDP growth as much was caused by increasing spending on health care, gas etc, fake wage increases as the bottom 40% actually saw negative earnings growth…etc etc..
What does it take for the Trumpeteers to finally catch on? There are but a handful of you left now BECAUSE the rational people can see the fraud that is oozing out of the WH. Admin has written article after article detailing the deception and still you cheer for Trump and his band of fraudsters.
Yesterday, Robert Siddell blubbered that Trump is a hero, well I ask you would a hero stand and brag that he is so proud of a 44 year low in unemployment that he knows to be a huge lie? Would he continue to give illegals free housing, food, healthcare etc.after promising a wall to stop their entry? Would a hero continue to dig us in deeper in the ME to to please the Israelis as a extension of his and Jared Kushner’s Israel First plan?
This is no hero Trumpeteers, this is a actor, and things are getting worse.
Nice stated. And no thumbs down!!!
I think the author — and possibly you, also — are missing an important point.
See if you can guess it. I’ll give you a hint; what causes a run on the bank?
Stucky- You hint that if the sheep were spooked and lost their Hopium/Trumpeteer high that there would be such a loss of confidence that we could possibly see a run on the banks. My question to you, what idiot keeps his money in banks? Never trust the system lest you will go bust.
Thanks for the positive nod. Any good articles in the works?
You got it, bro.
Loss of confidence. In other words, perception trumps (pun intended) reality. Things continue to hum along as long as people believe the bullshit.
MAGA. MAGA. MAGA. Believe. Believe. MAGA. Believe. Believe. MAGA. MAGA. MAGA!!!
Then, one day — who knows when the fuck that day arrives — folks all over ‘Murika have their “Oh, Shit!! It’s ALL bullshit!!!” moment. And the house of cards tumbles quickly.
I’m too majorly depressed these days to write anything original. Really.
Depressed?? Talk to me, maybe I/we can help. Is it your mom? If you are down, we are down.
BL beat me to it.
I’m sure the increase in average hourly earnings has nothing to do with the hidden tax, inflation aka the devaluation of our purchasing power being hidden by raising wages to mask the devaluation of the Dollar in the global central bank race to the bottom
As I understand it,if the numbers were calculated as they were pre-90s Unemployment would be over 20%. And if it wern’t for the fraud in the stock mkt. we would see a 5K dow.
That’s right Jack and if food , utilities/energy and gasoline were figured in, the inflation rate would be 10% or higher.
Edit: Can you imagine the inflation rate if medical/healthcare premiums were included?? Through the fukkin roof!
(courtesy of shadowstats.com)
My Family of Families guru sent me this link this a.m.
I like Jim, Maggie, his book “The Road to Ruin” is well worth a read.
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I would love to read your critique and review of The Road to Ruin. I am betting your perspective would go a long way to explaining some things I just do not have the background to completely understand.
I know, i know… there are lots of good ideas to write about and you have a book you are working on here. But, you mentioned Road to Ruin and that reminded me of some questions I had when I read it.
Thanks
Anyone by now even if you only have 2 active brain cells with jumper cables keeping them firing knows any information from government or MSM is all lies flat out or by omission .
For example the third largest steel producer in the world with the largest plant on tidal waters with a shipbuilding facility capable of building an aircraft carrier is gone all of it gone along with the 35,000 plus high wage blue collar jobs . What took its place , an amazon warehouse with $12.00 dollar per hour jobs . Wages just high enough that you qualify for welfare assistance .
You do not make America Great Again on bull shit like that .
The only jobs that pay in large numbers for average people are government jobs or jobs paid by third parties (insurance) health care elder care etc … and that shit is spread thin now too.
Everything is circling the drain for average people but the circle jerk of Wall Street to K-Street to Capitol Street is just fine for now . Just remember as things get more desperate and people start getting hungry , that is missing meals for 3 plus days those major haves in our society beboping about in their luxury leased SUV will be in shock when that baseball bat comes thru your windsheild and a gang literally eat your ass for lunch .
I want to support our president however he is talking the talk and that’s all . I know he is meeting resistance all the way and the resistors alternatives offer nothing of substance sadly neither does our presidents words offer any real solutions .
It’s all same shit different day so let’s bomb the fuck out of somebody !
Boat Guy,
Great points!
When campaign Trump ran on the MAGA platform and boldly stated he would bring jobs back to our shores, I called bullshit right away.
I wonder how so many smart people could be duped into believing this steaming pile of cow dung?!
Only thing I could think of was that the average person doesn’t understand how interconnected the global trade system is, by design.
The jobs won’t come back until a major decline in standard of living and purchasing power happens in America…
Then I remembered “foreign trade zones” or “free economic zones” popping up all over the U.S. …
Maybe the jobs will come back but at much lower wages and much worse working conditions in these zones
Plato the conditions for working people are the big one . Low pay means a host of other troubles for working people . I still say this is the way the “THEY” in the circle jerk want it the pity is that is who gets bailed out at 100 cents plus on the dollar while average citizens keep being told how great things are yet they fail to see it . You and I know we are not going to see it because we do not count . That is unless “THEY” want a war fought somewhere for some nonsense reason for us but a huge gain for the circle jerk . Check out who is profiting from Isralie held former Syrian Territory in the form of oil and natural gas leases , you guessed it “The Circle Jerk”!
Anyone who pays any employee, even a teenager with zero experience, less than $10 an hour is a shit bag. And that’s $10 in the middle of the country, $15 on the west coast.
And then the same fucks who pay these depressed wages complain that the employee is “dirty” or “can’t speak English” or drunk or (insert problem).
You get what you pay for. It’s a slave labor economy. It has been since Aunt Jemima was pickin’ cotton, since all those unwashed Irish came over in 1880, since all the dagos and pollocks came here in 1910, since Puerto Ricans came here in 1950, and since Mexicans have been pouring in ever since.
I don’t weep for employers who don’t pay well and who use congressmen to open the floodgates.