Much has been written on these pages, as a matter of fact much has been said in virtually every forum for opinion that exists, concerning the state of the car company Tesla. WIP asked a great question a couple weeks back. How can smart people have such dramatically diverging opinions when looking at the same data? Stuckey came up with the correct answer, maybe they all aren’t so smart. I say that jokingly, as I have somewhat different opinion of this.
I think people have different skill sets depending on what their life requires them to do, and how it requires them to see things. So in the spirit of all of the love that I receive when I comment on Tesla, I decided to create a little pop quiz. Here are two charts. In my opinion, they show a sound dynamic company literally weeks away from a dominant, disruptive position, not only in the auto industry, but in virtually every other industry that they have invested in.
The culmination of an excellent 10 year business plan. An absolute monster. Other quite intelligent people look at those same charts, and see a company flirting with disaster, on the knife edge of bankruptcy. I believe these two charts tell you everything you need to know to come up with the opinion that I have, with a little analysis and possibly a little research if you are unfamiliar with the performance of the company. If anybody has any other charts that they believe support their negative position, feel free to add them to the discussion.
So today’s question is, when you look at these charts, what do you see, and do you have the capability to explain what you see? Give it a shot. I’m often asked here whether or not I own any Tesla stock. I don’t. I don’t play the stock market. But if I did, I think the lows of last week were one of those opportunities that come around once in a while. Free money. With almost no risk. But enough chatter. Let’s play.
Well, I think you have thrown down quite the gauntlet and I for 1 will be watching diligently with popcorn in hand. I don’t know how many comments you will get but I would guess either 3 or 100.
You were right on the low end,
I actually thought it would get to 100.
Has anyone calculated how much coal is needed vs. how much coal we have to power the new and exciting EV century?
Your charts are blacked out.
But that hardly matters with TSLA because it is a philosophical company with rabid adherents and yowling adversaries. Which side has the goods? It won’t show on charts the long-term health of a company when one side or the other is gaining “voice” over the other because of Musk’s news events.
But if one looks at the fundamentals and the political environment, one can take an educated guess and that guess does not support TSLA as an ongoing concern.
1. “Taxpayer supported” as Musk calls it is just gov’t favoritism being used to sway consumers’ decisions. Ultimately, that means the cars do not stand on their own merits. How’s that working out for solar, wind farms, and regulations by the quadrillion that if charted would look like a four-year old’s crayon version of her cat’s hairball.
2. How do you chart the environmental argument for electric cars? Lord, but there are so many inputs and most seem to go against the whole idea of conservation.
3. As for competitive factors how many long-established, already profitable companies will be making electric cars that will compete directly and indirectly with high-priced Teslas at lower cost and having more reliable repair locations? Hard to chart, though easy to see when you consider, for example, that Mercedes has millions of customers and can make a better car more cheaply than Tesla can. Experience and market presence counts.
4. Cars companies are low margin entities. Very competitive market. Tesla stock hasn’t a prayer even if the company could get up to speed. The valuation is so rich that when real numbers come about showing profitability and ongoing capital expenditures and on and on, the game Musk plays will be up and the company in the tank. Chart that.
but you never looked at the fundamentals
Tesla will be around for a long time to come and maybe not as a auto manufacturer. For sure in the energy field with products for your homes, power storage for cities and some think in production of public transportation. Elon Musk is a actor to entertain while the scenery is changed in the theater.
Would I buy a Tesla X or S model, hell no. Do I believe the company will survive with large scale production of products in a new paradigm, hell yeah.
Why all the downers? Do you people never read? WTF
Sustainable Energy is their thing going forward.
The bullshit piles up so fast in CIA-Tesla, you need wings to stay above it.
http://mileswmathis.com/musk.pdf
Pi=4
(2Q+2Q= 4Q) You almost got there Dawg. You got the 4 right. That college edumacation will pay off any day now.
I’ve got several patents.
I have been designing and building machines for industries including engineered lumber, heavy equipment, and alternative energy successfully for almost 30 years now. I’m a registered professional engineer. I sat for an 8 hour exam that would have had you shitting your Depends and crying for mommy.
What the fuck have you done, cocksucker?
Wow RatDawg, you should submit a article with details and photos of your alt-energy inventions. I know I would really be interested.
Go eat a bag of Kentucky dicks, you fucking smart-ass. It’s a patent for thermal energy storage using a molten eutectic alkali-halide salt in conjunction with a liquid metal pool boiler for heat transfer to a gamma free-piston Stirling engine to generate electricity.
If you look hard enough you will find it.
So again: what the fuck have you done, cocksucker? Except throw shit and pretend you know fuck-all about anything?
I was just reading about something similar the other day. I was serious, submit a article.
Meh, I’m a snake oil salesman….wanna buy some oil Dawg?
If there’s one thing I don’t need, it’s more snake oil. I bought a shit-ton of gold and silver some years back, and have bleeding from the mouth and rectum ever since.
Nobody here cares about thermal-solar power generation or thermal energy storage.
And I don’t work for that company anymore.
Some keyword searches at http://www.osti.gov would yield some results – at the risk of doxxing myself.
Wrong again dog breath, I am extremely interested in thermal- solar power. And I already know who you are McDonald.
Edit: Might interest you to know Tesla is going to go big into solar, production of panels for one thing. Takes silver to produce them.
Stop whining..
E-I-E-I-O.
How did you suss that out? It’s not a big deal, but I am curious where I fucked up.
This place is not good for me; I need to leave.
Rdawg, don’t leave, your comments make me look like a sensitive male by comparison. I haven’t changed a bit but women dig me now.
I read an article indicating that silver was being replaced by something else in panels; can’t remember what.
Anyhow, I’ve only lost 55-60%, so who cares?
Look Dawg, you told me who you are . McDonald, first name Ronald….pure clown material. You won’t leave (a) we will talk bad about you for a loooong time (b) you like it here.
Oh. Never mind. Had me going based on a coincidence.
Nah, seriously I gotta take a break from here.
Have a great rest of the year.
Yeah he won’t be gone long. He luvs us too much!
RiNS- He ripped Vixen Vic a new one in another thread last night for no reason, pretty ugly. I gave him some crap and he goes soft and says he is leaving. Could have been the alcohol, IDK.
Which thread?
Work out/Energy in = ∞
Let’s see if that works for Musk.
Wow, that was some read! Thanks. When you hear truth it sounds like music.
There’s no point in trying to figure out these charts. Tesla and all the investors have put blind faith in a man, that while he may be really good at coming up with genius inventions and ideas, is not the guy who can actually make it work in real time. That’s not anything personal against him. That’s why companies hire CEO’s, CFO’s, COO’s, etc. No one can be everywhere at once and do everything. It’s just not possible. And different people have different strengths and weaknesses. This is not a complicated thing. It seems to me Mr. Musk is suffering from extreme exhaustion, stress, panic, and maybe a little god-complex (which given how he’s treated can you blame him).
I remember my grandparents always talking about asking for help when you need it, that it’s a sign of strength, not weakness. Where are Mr. Musk’s real friends? If you saw a close friend of family member burning out like this, acting nutty in public arenas, and putting his/her company at major risk, wouldn’t you sit them down and have a talk?
I feel bad on a certain level for Mr. Musk. Constantly told what a genius he is, how amazing his company is, blah blah blah. This is not conducive to surrounding yourself with competent people that can help steer the ship. It can, in fact, leave you wide open to fraud, liability, and utter ruin.
I have watched many documentaries about Steve Jobs, and it seemed to me he was a great example of an idea-man who knew that’s what he was. He was flawed, and far from perfect, and of course had his own agenda, and there were problems, but at the end of the day he was the face of Apple that got it to where it is today.
I don’t care that Mr. Must smoked some weed on a pod-cast, that’s not the issue. It’s a symptom of the larger issue. Perhaps Mr. Musk knows the jig is almost up, and this is just his way of saying “fuck it” and going out with a bang, or at least a meme that will be used for a long time to come.
No point in trying to figure out the charts. Brilliant
The difference between Elon Musk and innovation is someone on the level of Steve Jobs and Elon is no Steve.
They didn’t start selling any Model S in serious numbers until ’13. So they lost money in the ramp-up and made money once they started selling in volume. Same with X. The first full quarter of X deliveries (resulting from spring & summer production) was Q3 of 2016. At this point, revenues jumped and they made money.
Then they “bet the company” as Mr. Musk would say, on the Model 3. This required a complete retool and ramp-up of the old NUMMI plant in CA. Production hell, etc. etc. and here we are with massive losses, yet diminishing losses as production ramps up.
^ This is what you’re seeing.
Others are seeing $15,000 per-car worth of materials’ inefficiency on the Model 3, which is astoundingly unsustainable. They are seeing insurmountable quality control problems associated with Tesla’s insistence on trying to automate final assembly, which has been tried by all the other automakers, Toyota included, to no avail. They are seeing layoffs of 4,000 Tesla employees at a time when a reasonable Plan B to the automation problem is to implement standard industry assembly procedures and get on with it. They are hearing Mr. Musk’s production promises routinely missed, revised, missed and then revised again. They are reading tweets that say he’s taking the company private at $420, funding assured; then finding out there’s no funding.
They’ve lost faith in a stock that relies on faith. They believe if the stock tanks, Tesla tanks.
Both positions are valid. Flip a coin; could go either way.
Only serious reply so far. Yes, you’re following some of my thinking for sure
just another little challenge to overcome–
hackers have figured out how to clone the model s key fob so they can steal the car–
https://www.komando.com/happening-now/487034/hackers-can-steal-a-tesla-model-s-in-seconds-by-cloning-its-key-fob?utm_medium=nl&utm_source=notd&utm_content=2018-09-12-a-h
Here’s the reality, they aren’t “electric” cars, they are fossil fuel/nuclear powered cars that happen to turn the source energy into electricity. The cost of this transfer and the pollution and waste they create are simply hidden from the consumer at their end. Power plants aren’t free and electricity doesn’t generate itself. Like cheap food, there is no such thing, only a means of concealing the true costs under multiple layers of deceit.
It’s another one of those popular delusions we tell ourselves, and choose to believe.
Musk may be brilliant, but he’s still a grifter.
To put a sharp point to your comment, “There is no such thing as a free lunch!”. Someone always pays. Always!
The charts show what should be the end of Tesla . I know that the deep leftist fever for electric cars is high . Take notice of the electric car commercial like a cheer leader telling the public you will be a winner buying an electric car . My bet we as taxpayers are paying for that propaganda and subsidies will continue even for Tesla .
Zzzzzzz…..
Everybody poo-pooed Amazon, which never made money either, so if TSLA can stay solvent, maybe it has a chance. I will add this one other point – every car Tesla has made up to this point has had a certain sex appeal, but not the Model 3 – that is one ugly motherfucker.
Forget the Musk is a raving maniac, sociopath, self-centered, buffoon.
The world doesn’t need another car company. All his competitors will soon have / do have electric cars. These competitors have extensive dealer networks, repair facilities, and spare parts warehouses. Also his competitors are profitable making classic internal combustion engine vehicles and trucks. Additionally, Tesla cars are horrendously expensive to repair the slightest collision damage, thus expensive to insure.
Currently, a ‘total electric car’ is not practical, except for short trips, and requires 240v (to charge more quickly) – many people don’t have 240v in the garages – another added expense.
I think the Prius design is the best of both worlds: Prius is a “charge sustaining” hybrid vehicle. It manages the battery charge itself and keeps it topped up using power from the gasoline engine and/or power recovered during coasting and braking.
Prius is the car most traded on model 3
“Charge sustaining”…until the battery life expends:
“The battery pack in any hybrid Toyota is warranted either for 10 years or 150,000 miles (in states with California emissions laws) or 8 years or 100,000 miles in all other states.” And, he adds, “There’s no pro-rating at all. The battery will be replaced at no cost if necessary during the warranty period.”May 13, 2011
Tesla is defunct…The ‘roided up stock market just hasn’t noticed yet.
Tesla has an Enterprise Value of around $60B. EV is what it would cost someone to buy them out (cost of shares and cost of debt). In order to justify an EV of $60Bn you probably need (i) revenues of at least $30B, (ii) those revenues to be highly profitable, (iii) those revenues to be growing strongly.
Currently 90% of Tesla’s revenues come from car sales with the remainder from solar energy generation and energy storage. Let’s ignore that division for a quick calculation.
To justify its current EV Tesla needs profitable/growing revenues from about 500,000 cars at an Average Selling Price (ASP) of $60k.
I guess the big questions are
a) does that demand exist?
b) can demand grow from there?
c) can Tesla make those cars with a good enough Gross Margin (%) to make it highly profitable?
On this basis I think I’d be betting against Tesla! Tht seems like a lot of cars to sell for a company that has yet to hit any of its goals. That’s an awful LOT of money per car for an awful LOT of people. It’s one thing to sell exciting new products to wealthy early adopters, but quite another to “cross the chasm” into mass sales. I’m guessing Tesla would need to have the status of an Apple or Porche to get there (i.e. tremendous brand loyalty). IMO it has yet to develop that, and has the increasing challenge of the car manufacturers who do have that soon to launch some serious competition! Jaguar are already there. Porche, Mercedes, BMW, Audi, etc won’t be far behind. Nissan and Toyota are already there in the mass market.
My bet is that Tesla stumbles from disappointment to further disappointment and has a declining stock price. By the time it gets to around $50 a share someone big buys the company and turns it around. But what do I know. This is real wet finger in the air territory!
Jaguar is not a serious competitor. They’ve only sold about a hundred thousand cars in the United States in the last 4 years
Yes they are a bit of a flea. But they are a serious competitor insofar that they have a product, a retail network and a maintenance network, all of which is global. Plus other small things like a proven brand, heritage, reliability, safety record, profitability, etc. Let’s see whether Tesla can achieve those things? Then there’s the small challenge that so far Tesla has been a successful player (not commercially successful) in a niche market that it’s had to itself. As many here have commented, EVs are likely to remain a niche product for a while yet, and Tesla is soon going to be in competition with some serious players. I think it’s going to be a big struggle for them once they meet some serious competition. I’m definitely not saying that Tesla can’t pull it off, just that if you’re being realistic it has a massive challenge. Seems like a big ask based on it’s track record to date, especially given that it would need a lot of skill/experience to do that, and that’s perhaps it’s biggest failure so far – i.e. its apparent inability to manage/retain key staff. Musk may be a visionary, but I’ve seen/worked in enough tech startups to know that a visionary CEO is often the biggest impediment to transitioning from concept to operational success.
Bottom line is that Tesla seems priced for success, but has yet to prove a shitload of things. I think we’ve seen the high in the price until it makes some headway on those. Think I’d be watching the order book most of all.
I don’t think the serious players are going to be serious competition. Porsche is aiming to produce 20,000 per year by like 2022 or something. Tesla is looking to expand to 500,000 a year in that same time frame. Mercedes is already backtracking on their SUV saying that 200 miles per charge might be stretch. Tesla says the Roadster will have a range of 600. They are way way ahead in figuring this stuff out. let’s judge the competition when we see them perform. Until then they’re not serious competition
However, Jag is owned by Ford, who is commercially viable and can offer Jag as a limited edition luxury car and luxury sports car using the sales of their other units to power that division.
Tesla? Dey dun hab nu debishuns….
Ford sold Jaguar to Tata 10 years ago.
Politicians, pundits, bureaucrats, and Kool-Aid drinking bumpkins all filter data through three lenses.
Agenda, agenda, and agenda.
The agenda which is best for them, the agenda that is the worst for their enemies, and the agenda that provides the best cover for their bullshit when caught out.