“I’m intrigued by the fact that I saw nobody write about the JOLTS data for November. Maybe because underneath the hood, the labor market engine isn’t so robust. Openings, hires, quits were all down and layoffs were up. Outside of recessions, this happens just 5% of the time.”
David Rosenberg
“Our cyclical S&P 500 index peak-to-trough drawdown of 22% flashed a two-in-three recession probability. The only times the economy failed to contract in the aftermath was because the Fed eased policy outright.”
David Rosenberg
“CNBC’s Sara Eisen asked Larry Summers if it’s possible for the economy to slip into recession a year after real growth is 3%. He didn’t know that the answer is ‘yes’…78% of the time (seven of the past nine). On average, in the year before the recession, real GDP growth was 3.9%!”
David Rosenberg
“A gentle reminder after today’s surge that the top 12 sessions for the S&P 500 of all time happened in official bear markets. Not to mention 21 of the best 25 days (the other 4 were in 10%+ corrections). Word to the wise.”
David Rosenberg
