Best economy evah!!!! said DJT. Need I remind you that GDP is 68% dependent upon idiots spending money they don’t have on shit they don’t need. It appears the ignorant masses have hit the proverbial wall. This data point along with auto loan delinquencies at 10 year highs tells the true picture. The stock market isn’t telling the truth. 2019 recession has arrived.
While Bank of America had warned investors to brace for a dismal retail spending print in January, expectations remained positive (albeit just a 0.1% MoM move) for December’s (delayed due to shutdown) official spending data today. As a reminder, on Tuesday we reported that retail sales ex-autos, as measured by the aggregated BAC credit and debit card data, tumbled 0.3% month-over-month seasonally adjusted in January – the biggest drop in three years. This followed a flat reading in retail sales ex-autos in December.
Turning to the January BAC internal data, in January, spending for 4 out of 14 sectors increased in the month, showing broad-based weakening.
As a reminder, Retail Sales for the Control Group soared in November (+0.9% MoM) so some slowdown was expected; but, the government’s official retail spending data for December confirmed BofA’s concerns and plunged…
- Headline Retail Sales -1.2% MoM (+0.1% MoM exp)
- Control Group Retail Sales -1.7% MoM (+0.4% MoM exp)
That is the biggest MoM drop since 2009 for the headline and equal biggest MoM drop ever for the control group…
Which sent the Year-over-year retail sales data reeling…
This is the worst December retail sales print since 2008 (and 2nd worst in history)…
Needless to say, this will be a disaster for Q4 GDP forecasts which we now expect to print in the low 1% range.
We give BofA the last word:
“While there are a number of special factors that skew the data, the softening of late has revealed the weakest trend for consumer spending since mid-2016.”
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A quick 1% cut in the Fed Funds Rate would rectify that. In the long run, we’re all dead.
It’s worse than they’re telling you.
I’ve been working part time at an auto shop and people who are not even behind on their car payments are coming in with the most insanely dangerous vehicles I’ve ever seen. Poor maintenance isn’t even the term for it.
No way he is going to let it tank before November 2020, no way. After that?
Look out below.
When did DJT become Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank (which raised interest rates 9 times [which caused this Recession] right after he was elected and who have NWO blood in their eye for DJT)? Trump actually has less political power than a Federal Judge, the FBI Chief, Nancy Pelosi, the MSM, the Joint Chiefs and AIPAC because he has smaller balls than Ann Coulter and Judge Pirro.
It’s just getting so tiring worrying about big picture problems like the macro data and ridiculous federal debt. Things just seem to keep on keepin’ on. I don’t know whether to wish for the collapse or just turn it all off and enjoy life. The latter would have been the best strategy over the last 15 years.