Authored by James Thompson via The Unz Review,
Conventional wisdom is that it is too early to speculate why in the past six months two Boeing 737 Max 8 planes have gone down shortly after take off, so if all that follows is wrong you will know it very quickly. Last night I predicted that the first withdrawals of the plane would happen within two days, and this morning China withdrew it. So far, so good. (Indonesia followed a few hours ago).
Why should I stick my neck out with further predictions?
First, because we must speculate the moment something goes wrong. It is natural, right and proper to note errors and try to correct them.(The authorities are always against “wild” speculation, and I would be in agreement with that if they had an a prior definition of wildness).
Second, because putting forward hypotheses may help others test them (if they are not already doing so).
Third, because if the hypotheses turn out to be wrong, it will indicate an error in reasoning, and will be an example worth studying in psychology, so often dourly drawn to human fallibility. Charmingly, an error in my reasoning might even illuminate an error that a pilot might make, if poorly trained, sleep-deprived and inattentive.
I think the problem is that the Boeing anti-stall patch MCAS is poorly configured for pilot use: it is not intuitive, and opaque in its consequences.
By the way of full disclosure, I have held my opinion since the first Lion Air crash in October, and ran it past a test pilot who, while not responsible for a single word here, did not argue against it. He suggested that MCAS characteristics should have been in a special directive and drawn to the attention of pilots.
I am normally a fan of Boeing. I have flown Boeing more than any other plane, and that might make me loyal to the brand. Even more powerfully, I thought they were correct to carry on with the joystick yoke, and that AirBus was wrong to drop it, simply because the position of the joystick is something visible to pilot and co-pilot, whereas the Airbus side stick does not show you at a glance how high the nose of the plane is pointing.
Pilots are bright people, but they must never be set a badly configured test item with tight time limits and potentially fatal outcomes.
The Air France 447 crash had several ingredients, but one was that the pilots of the Airbus A330-203 took too long to work out they were in a stall. In fact, that realization only hit them very shortly before they hit the ocean. Whatever the limitations of the crew (sleep deprived captain, uncertain co-pilot) they were blinded by a frozen air speed indicator, and an inability to set the right angle of attack for their airspeed.
For the industry, the first step was to fit better air speed indicators which were less likely to ice up. However, it was clear that better stall warning and protection was required.
Boeing had a problem with fitting larger and heavier engines to their tried and trusted 737 configuration, meaning that the engines had to be higher on the wing and a little forwards, and that made the 737 Max have different performance characteristics, which in turn led to the need for an anti-stall patch to be put into the control systems.
It is said that generals always fight the last war. Safety officials correct the last problem, as they must. However, sometimes a safety system has unintended consequences.
The key of the matter is that pilots fly normal 737s every day, and have internalized a mental model of how that plane operates. Pilots probably actually read manuals, and safety directives, and practice for rare events. However, I bet that what they know best is how a plane actually operates most of the time. (I am adjusting to a new car, same manufacturer and model as the last one, but the 9 years of habit are still often stronger than the manual-led actions required by the new configuration). When they fly a 737 Max there is a bit of software in the system which detects stall conditions and corrects them automatically. The pilots should know that, they should adjust to that, they should know that they must switch off that system if it seems to be getting in the way, but all that may be steps too far, when something so important is so opaque.
What is interesting is that in emergencies people rely on their most validated mental models: residents fleeing a burning building tend to go out their usual exits, not even the nearest or safest exit. Pilots are used to pulling the nose up and pushing it down, to adding power and to easing back on it, and when a system takes over some of those decisions, they need to know about it.
After Lion Air I believed that pilots had been warned about the system, but had not paid sufficient attention to its admittedly complicated characteristics, but now it is claimed that the system was not in the training manual anyway. It was deemed a safety system that pilots did not need to know about.
This farrago has an unintended consequence, in that it may be a warning about artificial intelligence. Boeing may have rated the correction factor as too simple to merit human attention, something required mainly to correct a small difference in pitch characteristics unlikely to be encountered in most commercial flying, which is kept as smooth as possible for passenger comfort.
It would be terrible if an apparently small change in automated safety systems designed to avoid a stall turned out have given us a rogue plane, killing us to make us safe.
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I have warned my family not to fly in these planes.
That said, I am not as yet convinced these crashes are related. Witnesses seem to be saying this latest plane may have been on fire as it descended. That seems different than the anti-stall issues of Lion Air. Hopefully they can get some immediate answers from the boxes.
I won’t fly at all anymore. Refuse to go through the TSA grope machine… Chip
I quit flying around 1998 and sure as Hell won’t climb back into the cattle car after this latest news.
Not since 2003. Thankfully.
To me, that’s the best part.
I fly Ethiopian Airlines every chance I get. They are known for their large portions of steak and lobster.
Do you know the worlds fastest animal? It’s an Ethiopian chicken.
That is the closest thing to sex I get. My wife says she is gonna roll over and go to sleep and if I’m in the mood I should take a flight. I wish they had hand warmers tho.
Join the crowd! I quit so long ago I can’t remember the date. I remember the experience though. A LOT different from flying in the 1960’s.
JUST SAY NO
Ethiopian and Malaysian pilots. Not exactly the same thing, but close enough.
Fortunately, they recovered all the peanuts and snack packets – enough to feed Ethiopia for a month!
A month of Sundays, at that!!
Boeing is evil.
Boeing hires former high ranking military people who care very little about the people and mostly about careers. Who cares about electronic connections working when you have powerful political connections.
The IAM union is the Union which has destroyed the airline industry from within the defense contract world. The IAM’s pension liabilities will become the US government’s liabilities very soon. Am really glad my husband is draining his IAM pension via early retirement. (probably draining yours too if you are counting on it…)
If this anti-stall programming is the problem, it seems it’ll be harder to fix than if it were something mechanical like the sensors on the A330 (Air France 447). I have a big journey coming up and have determined that none of the aircraft will be 737 Max 8’s. I haven’t told the wife that it’ll be an A330.
You know Geogio’s hair looks like that from sticking his little pecker into light sockets, right?
He’s as blind as he is stupid…but that goes for every idiot on that show. But it’s still entertaining as hell.
Yeah…
But what if his pecker wasn’t stuck in a light socket.
Why if he was if he was just making shit up..
Doing his best to just entertain us..
Well, maybe “entertainment” isn’t the correct descriptor. I find it amusing for the reason stated above. But, a better description of Ancient Aliens would be Satanic deception and propaganda through mass media.
Are you aware that more Americans believe in aliens than in God? Why do you think that is?
Because not enuf believe that Odin is Lord and Master.
Just yanking yer chain IR.
There were 16 U.N. functionaries on board that plane. Coincidence? I believe in a lot of improbable stuff. Coincidence ain’t one of them.
Too bad the entire UN wasn’t on it.
Indeed.
My 2 cents as an airline pilot. First, look where these accidents occurred, Africa and Asia, not home of the best pilots, read Outliers, he goes into why they are so bad. Both occurred after takeoff, my bet is that the inexperienced crew put on the autopilot right away as supposed to hand flying to altitude. Newbies tend to do that, they are good at automation not so good actually flying the plane. Thus pilot error probably a factor, just a guess.
Second, the 737 Max is a poor design as stated above, stretch job to take more people, cargo. Stretching it out has caused numerous liabilities, higher stall speed, higher approach speeds, etc.
Lastly the stall patch is obviously effin defective.
I bet as the plane was cleaning up, ie bringing the flaps up after takeoff with the autopilot on, it sensed a stall, pitched over on its own, pilots freaked out and he rest is history .
I highly doubt this accident will occur here or over in Western Europe due to the higher caliber crews but it sucks to be Boeing right now that’s for sure.
Pilot had 8000 hrs. Not what I would call a newbie. But your point taken.
Read where a witness said the plane “rotated twice” just before it went down. Not sure what that means exactly, but kind of sounds like a flat spin stall. No coming back from that as a rule.
This is terrible, I just heard Doug Casey was planning on coming back as a 737-Max.
the horror……the horror
Witness report says: “Tamirat Abera, 25, was walking past the field at the time. He said the plane turned sharply, trailing white smoke and items like clothes and papers, then crashed about 300 meters away. ”
That sounds highly unusual to me. A bomb? A catastrophic engine failure? That does not sound like the same type issue as was reported before. Smoke and debris coming from the plane prior to impact would indicate that the fuselage was breached.
If it doesn’t say “Wakanda Airline” on the side of any airplane in Africa, I won’t get on it. At least not without a last will and Testament, my last rites and at least 12 hours of hookers and Blow before boarding.
I haven’t flown since 1990 the only way they will get me on a plane is in handcuffs and shackles lol. Flying greyhounds full of software written by illiterate foreign scum. 500 pound niggers ,faggot flight attendants and lunatic leftist twats are the only denizens of these flying torture chambers.