Submitted by Hardscrabble Farmer
For those of you who have been paying scant attention to how a communist takeover progresses through a body politic, time to dust off your copy of The Gulag Archipelago and start reading.
We are in the midst of a Bolshevik rout of American society and it leads to one outcome.
Forewarned is forearmed.
“Worst Year Ever”: The Chinese Ban On U.S. Agricultural Products Will Be A Death Blow For Countless U.S. Farms
U.S. farmers have never experienced a year quite like this. During the first half of 2019, endless rain and unprecedented flooding were the major problems. As a result of the incredibly wet conditions, millions of acres of prime farmland didn’t get planted at all, and tens of millions of other acres are going to yield a lot less than usual. Even without anything else happening, we were going to see farm bankruptcies soar to absolutely crazy levels, but now the Chinese government is essentially cutting off U.S. agricultural imports.
This will greatly depress the prices that U.S. farmers get for their crops, and so many farmers that were still hoping to squeeze out a profit for this year will be hit with a loss instead. Ultimately, the truth is that 2019 is going to be a death blow for countless U.S. farmers that were barely hanging on financially after a string of really tough years. Many will leave the industry entirely and never go back to farming again, and our nation will be worse off because of it.
When the Chinese announced that they were going to completely stop buying U.S. agricultural products, it sent shockwaves across the middle portion of the country. According to the executive vice president of the American Farm Bureau, our farmers and ranchers will now be facing “just a really tough, tough time”…
“This is a body blow to farmers and ranchers all across the country,” Dale Moore, executive vice president of the American Farm Bureau, told FOX Business. “That’s one of the things that we are feeling the effects of, and this is on top of a year when mother nature has been a terrible business partner in many parts of the country. It’s just a really tough, tough time for farmers and ranchers in this country.”
Shares of industrial, farming, oil and transportation companies have plummeted, a direct result of the increased tensions between the world’s two largest economies.
Of course President Trump is trying to be upbeat and he is promising that the Chinese will not be able to hurt our farmers, but the truth is that they already have.
Chinese imports of U.S. agricultural products fell by more than half from 2017 to 2018, and now they are going to zero. The following comes from Fox Business…
Despite Trump’s tweet, American farmers now stand to lose all of what was a $9.1 billion market in 2018, which was down sharply from the $19.5 billion U.S. farmers exported to China in 2017.
Unfortunately for U.S. farmers, they are caught right in the middle of a tug of war between the Chinese government and President Trump, and China specifically went after U.S. farmers in order to hurt Trump politically…
China’s new agricultural ban has an additional benefit to the Chinese of maximizing negative political impact to Trump.
Important presidential election swing states in the Midwest grain belt such as Iowa and Wisconsin were vital to his 2016 election victory. Cutting this particular area of bilateral trade at a time when American farmers are recovering from the after-effects of this year’s floods is a potent way for Beijing to punch back against President Trump’s new tariffs.
If the presidential election was held this November, it would be really difficult for Trump to win in Iowa in Wisconsin. Of course much can change between now and November 2020, but right now Trump is definitely losing support in the middle of the country.
Speaking of Wisconsin, it just happens to be one of the states that currently has the highest number of farm bankruptcy filings…
Since last June, there have been a staggering 535 Chapter 12 bankruptcy filings, a 13 percent increase. Kansas, Minnesota and Wisconsin had the highest number of filings.
As a result, Congress passed the Family Farmer Relief Act to update the eligibility requirements for Chapter 12 bankruptcy, raising the debt limit from $4.1 million to $10 million — giving more farmers the chance to declare bankruptcy, thereby offering their producers and creditors a better chance to recognize and avoid mass liquidation.
President Trump will try to keep as many farms going as possible with his massive aid packages, but the truth is that even with those aid packages it is inevitable that farm bankruptcies will continue to surge.
In fact, they are already at the highest level that we have seen since the last recession.
What U.S. farmers really need is an end to the trade war and for the Chinese to start buying from them again.
Sadly, that is just not going to happen. At this point, even Goldman Sachs is admitting that there will not be a trade deal with China before the 2020 presidential election…
Analysts at Goldman Sachs no longer think the U.S. and China will manage to negotiate a trade deal ahead of the 2020 presidential election — which is more than 15 months away.
“We had expected a final round of tariffs targeting remaining Chinese imports at a 10 percent rate,” the analysts, led by chief U.S. economist Jan Hatzius, wrote in a note to clients. “But news since President Trump’s tariff announcement last Thursday indicates that U.S. and Chinese policymakers are taking a harder line, and we no longer expect a trade deal before the 2020 election.”
This means that things will continue to go from bad to worse for U.S. farmers, and this will take a major toll on the U.S. economy as a whole.
We have entered the time of “the perfect storm”, and things are definitely not going to get any easier in the months ahead.
I wish that I had better news for you, but I don’t. Global events are starting to greatly accelerate, and so many of the things that we have been warned about are starting to happen right in front of our eyes.
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The truth of the matter is simply that the Chinese won’t be able to feed their people and they don’t care. The swine flu epidemic is ravaging all of Asia and they have major crop/weather problems as well.
Us farmers would be well advised to adopt the Chinese game plan and redirect their crops as originating in Canada and Mexico now the the new NAFTA is in place.
Wolverene.
The Chinese are shifting to S. American products.
They are always having swine flu epidemics in China.
The Chinese are far more resilient and tougher than the Ameriscums by far. Their miserable past has been a conditioning factor for hundreds if not thousands of years, while Murica is only 243 measly years old and has no other survival reliance mechanism except I-phones and anus fucking.
China has 1 billion people shitting in the local river.
China has plenty of other issues.
We have kids shitting in streets out in Cali.
True that.
Hey Babble-on. Fuck you.
why did so many of you downvote babylon?
the chicoms are much more used to hardship & privation than we are because we’ve been able to live an easy life–
Ripple effect. Who loaned those farms the money for the loans they will default on? I think that is going to be a bigger calamity.
What is the total loan default $$ amount?
Most are insured by Federal programs. Do not worry about big farmers.
I’m not worried about the farmers. The local small banks are insured by the Federal Government. The same Federal Government that is also $22T and growing in acknowledged debt.
Big banks also have a piece of the action so there will be a bailout. Who pays for the bailout? The same Federal Government that is also $22T and growing in acknowledged debt.
This could be the first “bail-in” as it is sold to us to pay for Farmers Inc.
That is kind of what I meant.
Subsidy programs are just handouts when production is way down. And if the price is driven up or down by market conditions, it really doesn’t impact what the consumer and taxpayer will pay.
Yup, take whatever amount they give and figure at least 10:1 leverage, probably 100:1. The article quotes essentially a 19.5 billion market evaporating. So at a minimum a $195 billion black hole has opened.
This is pure political propaganda put forth from U.S. farmers who put themselves too far into debt. They placed their bet and lost. Now they want to present themselves as the Joad family.
Sorry, but I have no sympathy for them. I have seen too many neighbors buy $82,000 F350 dually diesel pickups to haul their cattle a mere 15 miles to market. And just like the people who pay half a million bucks for a vinyl clad particle board house in the suburbs, they will have to own their investment decisions.
I live in an ag state… At the annual stock show, the brand new trucks and trailers, the shiny boots, big silver belt buckles and fancy cowboy hats are clearly seen.
Take a drive during grain harvest and the new combines and tractors complete with AC and AM / FM radios are hitting the fields.
During the last few years, many of the farmers have been stowing their grain in bins on their farms. Of course, the older grain is full of bugs – it needs to be fumitoxined either by the farmers or the grain elevators. (Fumitoxin can be lethal if not used correctly.) Or the older grain stinks, and the farmers try to mask the odor by bleaching the grain.
Many farmers / ranchers protect themselves through LLPs and LLCs.
Taxpayers subsidize the farmers in many ways: crop insurance, price loss coverage, agriculture risk coverage, conservation programs, diaster aid, et al.
I read a piece noting bankruptcies were up 5% last month. I don’t believe the increase was due to only farmers / ranchers.
No one needs worry about the big farmers. Just their own table.
from NYT July 29, 2019:
Would it be safe to say that we’re not really talking about farmers out your way but Industrial Ag producers? Big difference.
If you grow the same crop year after year, you aren’t farming, you’re strip mining soil and turning it into carbon based products, much like a refinery or an industrial plant. If your animals produce ‘waste’ that must be held in lagoons, you aren’t farming, you’re acting as a storage facility for livestock.
Farmers practice a holistic system based around the feeding of a family as a primary goal with surplus being directed into the supply chain. An Industrial Ag producers primary goal is the maximum return of calories invested for dollars earned regardless of the consequences on the land/body/watershed.
Bolsheviks?
Possibly.
Or “Get the Farmland”.
Both?
Plans within plans are very difficult to augur. Doves are staying put more and more, flying south less and less.
I know farmers here who believe the industrialized farming is just as wholesome and well-intended. For instance, what if a farmer were to spread truckloads of animal manure repackaged into spray or bulk form from the stockyards (or his own cattle feedlot).
Isn’t that just efficient repurposing of pig waste from the pig lots into the food supply? I am sure it could be argued this version is just larger scale than the holistic model you mention.
And, one farmer I know in charge of one of the largest trusts in the region will argue me blue in the face regarding the absolute boon high fructose corn syrup has been to the world. By turning what was once considered a waste byproduct of the corn syrup making industry into something which can be legally added to food INSTEAD of real sugar, well, isn’t that just efficient redirecting of corn solid waste? He believes the concern over the extra molecule requiring liver process is ado about nothing.
As far as the new marijuana industry springing up? It is another trojan animal and it has come through the gate undetected.
Hardscrabble,
My comments were in regard to non-industrial ag producers. My state’s top industry is ag with over 31,000 farms. Many of the farms and ranches have been passed on to family members throughout many generations. Locally, the names are well-known.
I’m not familar with the amount of aceage you have… (I’m not being rude, but I wonder if your farm would be considered a hobby farm in my state.)
I’m sure you’re aware, large acreage is needed to grow wheat, corn, milo, soybeans, and to raise livestock. (Buffalo is also raised here.)
Many of the farms and ranches here may be larger than yours with different crops and different livestock. It doesn’t make them industrial ag producers.
If enough Chinese get hungry enough their policies (or their government) can be reversed as well! I understand that there are a COUPLE HUNDRED revolts, riots, and so forth EACH YEAR in China NOW. Can you imagine how ugly it might get if the whole damn country was starving at the same time? We shall see.
NOT! The Chinese have had the knowledge to survive and thrive and grow a garden. How long can you live without a grocery store??
China is a stage play that’s not ready for prime time.
Jewish-governed nations have a hierarchy and Jewish-governed Commie China is middle of the pack at best.
Since you love them so much and hate Americans, why the fuck are you here?
Hundreds of millions have moved to the cities to be closer to the manufacturing jobs and are no longer capable of feeding themselves. What happens when the food runs out and the jobs go away?
TN,
Answer: Cheap Chicom Soylent Green
“It is no crime to be ignorant of economics, which is, after all, a specialized discipline and one that most people consider to be a ‘dismal science.’ But it is totally irresponsible to have a loud and vociferous opinion on economic subjects while remaining in this state of ignorance.” – Murray Rothbard
What a shame that Trump and his entire administration are as ignorant as they are in believing that you can keep pushing and pushing and that there will be NO consequences for your actions.
“You can ignore reality but you cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” Ayn Rand
Unless, of course, you’re a trump flunky.
Didn’t know that was her quote. As usual she makes a lot of sense.
What we don’t realize fully is that the world is changing fast and all we can do is hang on. The system seems to be cracking in places but because it is interdependent not all of the system will crash. Cities have been around for thousands of years and many of them have survived to this day.
Our world today is in flux. Those of us who have lived long enough to see the vast changes realize now in introspection that the world has always been in a state of flux.
So what is happening today is not to be considered negative but rather the wheat and the tares growing together in this vast field of human nature that will certainly meet it’s destiny.
Human density will meet it’s destiny.
Boom. Lots of problems get solved with lots of people being deaded.
It is a system as old as humanity itself.
There is something I miss in Q posts but I enjoy in yours and Unc’s articles. You guys are still with it in an old TBP kind of way. It seems since Trump was elected, we have been winning too much and the hoi polloi has been politicized to the point that every damn thing is about Trump and his standing in the world. I thought I was tired of Obama…
Anyway, I mentioned it earlier and I don’t want to sound like a fanboy, I said I appreciate your comedian background because comedians are observant social critics. I likened my own efforts on a certain article to the art scene in Confederacy of Dunces. Nobody appreciates a critic unless he’s a clown.
My point, you ask? There is something afoot as there always is with government. I recall the advice of Col Slade (Al Pacino) – “Watch the US part.” I could just go along with the Trump rah-rahs who have wrapped themselves in the flag at this point but there is that inescapable fact of a mountain of debt.
I speculated that 911 was the long anticipated disaster that was to befall this nation. It is in fact not the same country. We now have come to accept mass shootings as routine. We accept police brutality that was applied to Negroes and browns at an earlier time. Do you know what made the LA police a kinder gentler force? It was that Negroes looted the guns shops during the riots.
We might as well admit, when guns are illegal, only illegals will have guns. And Negroes. I’m not a gun owner but I can see where this is going (and I don’t like the looks of it). It’s going to hell in a hand basket. Whites must be put down because they are the only ones that will resist a government they have ownership in. The rest of us are essentially clients who will accept the dictates of Massa Trump or Pence.
We all have an interest in the survival of John Connor, I doubt a Kardashian could provide the necessary leadership once the machines take over. By machines, I mean the political entities that will plunder the country.
WTF are you trying to say, sit back shit happens?
I was talking to HF, he will understand.
What I was ‘trying’ to say, Crawdad, is this:
I mentioned that we are in the midst of a campaign and the contenders are going at it with vim and vigor. We are hearing a lot of bullshit which leaves the public alarmed and fearful. Fear is a great teaching tool as it makes the public anticipate, prick up their ears, rather than remain uninterested.
If you are a guy, you have bought furniture or small motorized tools that require assembly. Usually the instructions are spare, using many diagrams or pictures. Instead of trying to read the manual in its entirety, you take the parts out of the box and examine how they fit together. Once you understand the logic of the assembly (A video can only help so much because it denies you the act of seeing how things fit together. My dumb blonde co-worker and one of her beer buddies installed closet mirrors from Home Depot. They misunderstood the video and installed the doors upside down. When she asked me the next Monday, I explained that the rollers are of no use at the top, the metal channel is holding the door upright.) the job is much easier to carry out.
If we accept that we are in the midst of a campaign, we can now take a look at the various pieces and see how they fit together. When Obama got elected, AWD could not get over his conviction that Hispanics were to blame. I countered that if they had put him in the WH, they should have gotten the immigration reform he promised them. It seems that Trump also saw things AWD’s way and took a path the establishment was reluctant to take, he went on the offense against the Hispanic voting bloc. Now that he is running for reelection, he has ramped up his assault on Hispanics who could tip the scales for Bernie. His assault is two-pronged; deportation raids (only a day after his visit to El Paso to show his concern) and race-baiting rhetoric to demonize Hispanics and divide the Democrats. By election time, there will be a lot of pressure on the precincts and possibly dirty dealing like posting cops near the polls and disinformation campaigns regarding acceptable forms of ID.
A mass shooter in El Paso is unexpected and strange unless you consider that El Paso has put a lot of pressure on Trump because of the refugee camps there. It is the home-base of Beto O’Rourke who could use his celebrity if not political clout to convince Hispanic and Black voters to vote for Bernie. The working narrative being pushed by Hollywood Rob and a cohort who quoted him in Zero Hedge is that El Paso brought it upon itself due to the policies of Beto. Trump has gone out of his way to use this tragedy for political gain by blaming Beto and illegal immigrants for the mass murder that took place there. He cynically offered to tie the carrot – immigration reform – to the stick – gun control – knowing full well that he gets credit for having compassion on Hispanics but nothing will get done, again.
Since Trump no longer has Sheriff Joe fighting in the trenches, he has installed a re-election team in the cabinet. Everyone must pull together for the sole purpose of creating favorable conditions for his election. Farm subsidies and farm rescue funds, check. Lower interest rates, check. Attack Black leaders in Baltimore, check. Like Ripley at the end of the movie Alien, it should be smooth sailing for Trump from here on in if only some damn monster doesn’t pop out of the woodwork.
please put down the meth pipe….before you hurt yourself. We have been here before several times….it is a 4th Turning…..Sure the ride is going to suck but nothing we can do about that except ride the wave. Humanity will survive, America will be different but still here, might be better might be worse but we will still be here. Take a deep breath and think. Who do you want in your life, where do you want to spend your time and what is important to you. What duties do you have to family and friends?
Suck it up, adjust your huevos and let the wave carry you…..no man can turn back the tide. Be the best you can be in the situation you are in…..Fear is the mind-killer, control your fear and own your life…..
Fortunes will be made in this cycle…e.g. the farmland disaster is an opportunity for those willing to buy when there is blood in the streets.
Be kind when you can and ruthless when you need to be it is our time in the barrel.
Sure.
Ask the starving of Russia how it worked out when the farmers went to Siberia for retraining. They put the philosophers in charge of the communal farms and genocide ensued.
That will work here too.
We have been here before several times – Hammer
I’m not smart like you, Marty, but you said a mouthful right there.
I am not siding with the Democrats, I’m still pissed off about the failure of Obama to come through with his promised immigration reform. I was merely interpreting for those who seem confused by the Sturm und Drang of current politics that it is all a show designed to insure a Republican victory. They had to throw out the old playbook and instead of attempting to steal voters from the Democrat machine, they decided to minimize their importance. It’s the scarecrow tactic – getting the trees to throw apples at him and Dorothy – by pretending he doesn’t want those apples. Trump needs all the votes he can get and if he can coax Hispanics to switch sides by making their connection with illegals unpalatable, he will win.
Sing away, Cassie.
Do you see what I see?
First they came for me and I apologize that they aimed for thee, but since it is He on the tree and there’s Three, I shall leave Barrabas to go free.
The Democrats since Clinton sewed up the electorate by tying diverse minority groups together and bringing them into the party. They sang the praises of their strategy – diversity is our strength – and tried to get the country to believe in it. To believe that there is strength in numbers regardless of morality. They have not changed their strategy and are now attempting to add to the gays and lezzies and child molesters by including convicted criminals and illegal aliens in the Democrat voter pool.
The Republican strategy is the exact opposite: instead of inclusiveness they are pushing exclusiveness; whites only. Race politics worked for Nixon and Reagan and it worked for Trump as well. There was no need to fix a strategy that ain’t broken like the Republicans were considering doing in ’16. Divide and conquer is the whole of the campaign. Every discernible group must be demonized for maximum effect. Whites must be made to look like murderous racists with convenient manifestos to put them on the defensive, blacks and browns will have to shed their victim mantle and be made to look like murderous thugs with constant publication of illegal crime and black thuggery. Once every side is under the media microscope, they will be made to engage in a gladiatorial battle for survival while the emperor decides who gets the thumbs up.
The strategy is working. I went with the sexy mulatta to Kohl’s and noticed two white guys doing a double take when they saw me, as if they wanted to make sure I was not a threat, wasn’t going to start shooting up the place in some demented act of vengeance.
Hold on, are you really claiming White guys in El Paso did a double take because they saw you?
Maybe it was your sexy mulatta.
Just sayin’.
I am a scary little dude, ese.
As for the sexy mulatta, my grandkid is 3 going on 13. He saw a our wedding picture on the wall and asked, why did you get married? I replied, cause your granny was pretty. He said, no she’s not.
My wife stayed overnight at his house and she said her daughter ordered pizza. My grandkid’s dad is 7′ tall so when he saw the little dude arrive with the pizza, he asked him, why are you so little?
Dog..
White guys did a double take when they saw a Mexican in El Paso??
Are you sure you didn’t scare them by doing a double take upon seeing two white guys in El Paso?
I”m an old white guy with a snow white beard in a small city in the northern rockies and the kids at the local community college see me and cross the street. So we have definitely been conned into suspecting each other.
I said I went to Kohl’s, I did not say I went to El Paso.
Coy dog.
So two white guys were alarmed at seeing a Mexican in Cali?
I don’t think you’re a liar but I do think you are wrong about republicans going whites only. They will give head to any black or hispanic who will vote Repub. they don’t care any more about them than the dems but they are trying hard to steal 30% of each. That may have been the old party line.
Mr Baggs,
Is it good head?One time or a bunch of times?
I might want to talk to the head of the republican party.
“The Republican strategy is the exact opposite: instead of inclusiveness they are pushing exclusiveness; whites only.
You’re a liar and an idiot. There, I said it.
Is it about Hollywood? You guys should get a room.
Still don’t know what you are talking about. Dems/Obama never ever intended to implement “immigration reform”. Since 1965 the policy of the leftist/statist/RINO’s has been open borders and population replacement by LatAm folks.
The LatAm are predisposed to tolerate “el Jefe” in all its forms and are mostly manageable. LatAm is filled with failed states, failing states and states that have been in decline so long they can’t remember the good times anymore.
Chile being a possible exception….but Shithole is an accurate description of Mexico to the tip of Tierra Del Fuego. No thanks.
We don’t need any LatAm folks in America…we really don’t.
Sending the 30+ Million Illegal Aliens home would simultaneously plug holes in the US Federal and State budges by ending welfare for our black brothers….sure they don’t work as hard as the LatAm’ers let them earn their own and wages will rise by reducing the illegal alien labor supply. GTFO.
California is the future of America…..if immigration is not reversed and a great wall built on the Southern Border.
I’m talking about the 2020 election, Marty. I’m looking at the playbook. You are talking about the issues. My first comment above was a complaint about the constant talk about the issues.
There was a time when TBP was more than political platforms, there was analysis like Admin’s articles that provided an overview and mapped out where we appeared to be headed.
Nowadays, we have more folks who like to thrash about in the weeds, arguing about Dems vs Reps while failing to see where the US stands in the scope of history.
I don’t have any complaint about your focus, you are a perceptive and interesting commeter. I am simply trying to understand the campaign and how current events play into and may even be a deliberate part of a winning strategy.
“Be kind when you can and ruthless when you need to be it is our time in the barrel.”
That was a double edged puma skinning knife line Martel.
Sir…you are playing Cassandra’s role in this Greek tragedy.
Where’s Paula, dammit!
EC,
I like it when you opine…past the zingers…and go deep for big yardage.
Why all the negs? I appreciate the views of a non-gun owner.
Firearms are only a tool.
Only sheer force of will is going to lead to the survival of white faces and blue eyes.
whenever i see that pic of kamala & willie,i imagine that he’s saying come on baby,one time 4 ol times sake & she’s saying sorry willie,i have the power now,and besides,you were not that good anyway–
I understand.
Sat with 3 old vets chatting about the price of beans in China.
When I was a kid, that was the opening line here in farm country and guess what? It still is.
I made the.long trip to the big VA hospital in Poplar Bluff, population approx 40,000. Smallish to some but a real Metropolis here.
There are trucks, tractors and combines to avoid. Sometimes ATV riders of various ilk.
Thing is…
The old vets reminded me why they enlisted. (Two Korea era… One WW2.)
They believed the country needed their service.
Now, I joined in 1984 because the oil boom died and a 4.year stint in return for a paycheck, training and 30 days leave sounded like a great option. I am betting that MOST of us joined for similar reasons.
But those old guys joined to fight and protect. It is why I volunteer and try to help a tiny bit. If only to flirt and make them smile.
They really tried to.save the country from communism. It was the intellectuals who sold us out.
It always is.
Yes, intellectuals have done massive damage in the world. I would say progressives consider themselves intellectualls.
Reasons to enlist 1968:
1. You’re a kid and don’t know jack shit.
2. You have suffered from Military Romanticism since you were 13. (See no. 1)
3. Your Father taught you how to shoot pool in a VFW on Saturday afternoons and you listened to all the men talking.
4. You watched too many war movies and TV war shows. (See no. 1 & 2)
5. You hated high school, wanted to get out into and see the world, and the thought of collage was revolting. (See no.1)
6. You were raised an anti-communist by your Grandfather and Father, and at the time we were actually fighting/killing them on TV News shows every night (See 1, 2, 3, 4 & 5)
7. You grew up watching Vic Morrow on COMBAT! (See no.4)
8. Your favorite character on COMBAT was the BAR Gunner…you became an M-60 Gunner and realized TV war shows are bullshit because you are not watching…you are in the real shit and can’t turn it off! (See no. 4)
9. You wanted to be a hero but just became a wounded survivor. (See 1 & 2)
10. You read Speedy’s post and realized you are one of the old Vets Speedy is talking about! (See Speedy’s post).
Grand solar minimum is another dagger
Did the new solar cycle start early last year? http://milesmathis.com/apollo.pdf
Miles Manthis is quite a character, and am glad you post his writings to remind me to read him. But in this case, and sometimes others I have to agree. Working outside most of my life and have the skin cancers to prove it, did notice a change in the Sun starting about last August (2018). Have tried to explain it to people, and not being a scientist but just an observer, most have a look of skepticism. It is something different.
Something is going on, and it is just not chemtrails.
I notice it too. No one seems to want to talk about it.
I’m building a house in NC going 2 X 6 instead of 2 X 4 for the extra insulation, a steeper roof then usually needed here, best insulated windows I can find, and putting a wood burning (2 burner) cook stove in the basement.
This is good on the science and the needed prep:
The Chinese might be shooting themselves in the foot if next year’s crops are even worse, which they could be. Then we might be charging $50 for a bushel of corn.
That’s great president Trump. You’ve fucked things up so bad, I think I’ll vote for you again in 2020. I am a typical brainwashed voter suffering from cognitive dissonance and leader worship. I am a statist and thus do not believe in the possibility of self-rule. I constrain my beliefs in a narrow two dimensional ideology called the left vs. right paradigm. I need a that big orange dick up my ass to rule over my life.
Thanks for your administration being a continuation of the Obama administration, which was a continuation of the Bush administration, which was a continuation of the Clinton administration. Which all really boils down to a continuation of the total destruction of the USA as we know it. Thank you Trump for your public service and serving the shit out of me while I bleed from the asshole. I’m now proud to be an Murican.
You get me votey. The mind meld worked.
Pictures worth a thousand words
Yes, a picture is worth a thousand words, but I suspect that your picture is actually wrong. You might want to spend some time reviewing these articles from the CPRC.
https://crimeresearch.org/cprc-research/
I believe you are missing Butt’s implication.
Most of today’s shooting are in some way misrepresented, hoaxed, or outright faked.
The official data you are pointing to is just that: official data from before the years when hoax shootings went vertical under Obama.
I go back and forth in my mind. Is it true, is this communist takeover really a thing that will happen? I live in the DC area about 1 mile from Langley. I was with a client (Realtor) today and she was selling her mothers condo (2 bedroom for $1,500,000). As our conversation progressed, it was clear to me she was very wealthy or from a very wealthy family. I decided to ask her if she knew my daughters mother inlaw (my daughters mother inlaw and my Realtor client own thousands of rental units in the DC area. The expensive areas.). Indeed she did know her. In fact her father inlaw and my daughters mother inlaws father were partners for 40 years. Between the 2 of them they own over 10,000 rental units in the DC area. In fact one of her sons just completed a 50 acre development ON THE RIVER!!!
Why do I mention this? Because it is really hard to see downsides. My ears are definitely up though. The language and rhetoric being thrown around is not something I have ever seen before.
I lived in Confederate Northern Virginia for a year and have never seen such gleaming condominium cities.
I agree the rhetoric has gone fake-nuclear but I have also sort of been pondering what I believe is your point:
With all this talk of doom and dismembering the country, the Northeast Megalopolis from DC to NYC to Boston seems to be doing pretty fucking well outside of the ghettos. Other regions of the country are and will be allowed to rust away or fly away before the great Northeast is compromised!
Yep. You should see Tyson’s Corner now. The developers goal is to make DC a suburb of Tysons Corner. Btw, I refer to the DC metropolitan area as The Imperial City. All $$ roads lead here and I can’t wait to gtfo.
Well if you remember the “Hunger Games” the capital was quite luxurious while Katniss and friends were eating rats in district 9 (Baltimore)…….Nothing unusual about that. 10,000 rental units is absolutely massive.
Hammer, I didn’t even mention the amount of commercial space they own on top of that. Also, the 50 acre development is not included in that total. It’s in a different city.
Goddamn – people sure talk themselves into a funk. I don’t know shit about farming, but I just used the Google machine and found lean hog prices for the last five years https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/lean-hog-price And it looks like the current price of 77 cents / pound is on the upper end of the range over those years. So this article seems overwrought. Seems to me that agricultural commodities are fungible, like oil. If China buys soybeans from Brazil instead of the US, we can sell our soybeans to whoever the Brazilians were going to sell to. Our entire 2017 (high water year) Ag sales to China were less than $20B. Profit on that after input costs was probably only $2B. Now Trump’s going to charge a 10% tariff on $300B of Chinese goods. That’s 30 Billion smackers. We can just give the farmers a small chunk of that and they’ll be ahead of the game.
We buy over 1/2 a trillion dollars of crap from China each year and we’re supposed to kowtow to them lest they cut off their last $10B of Ag purchases? That’s fucking ridiculous.
Iska – why was Brazil not the first choice before? Was quality poor? Purchases/sales do not translate nearly as easily as you might imagine. They can do, but not always.
Ill bet my old employer ,Cargill is doing just fine.
pretty sure that i read awhile back that brazil was buying a lot of ag products from us & shipping it to china as their own stuff–
Why are we in the commodity business anyways…..shipping shiploads of corn, soybeans, wheat, is not value-added…..we should be processing more of the commodity and shipping out finished goods…..cornflakes, ethanol, corn syrup (corn is disgusting) etc…..then exports would be $60B, not $20B …..creating more jobs, profits, etc.
Industrial mono-croppers are usually pretty short sighted….
There are two basic parts to running a business.
First, there is a technical component. That is, if you are a farmer, you need to know how to farm. If you are a refrigerator manufacturer, you need to know how to assemble, fold and cut metal, etc.
Second, you need to know how to administer a business. That is you need to know about accounting, finance, marketing, Human Resources, material and manpower allocation, budgeting, forecasting, planning, etc.
The second is by far the most critical part to running a successful business. And it is not even close.
Farmers, often, simply do not have the second set of skills. And the consequences are bad.
I have run a range of businesses with vastly different technical components. I have run plastics, timber metal, textile businesses. I have no great skills in the technical aspects of those businesses, although I understand the technical requirements. But what I do have is the administration skills.
In a modern economy, where farms are set up in large scale, if the farmer does not have the second set of skills covered, then bankruptcy will always be a severe risk.
Smaller farms may also struggle to be viable. HSF has done a wondrous thing, but make no mistake, HSF is no ordinary Joe. He is smart, he is capable and resourceful, and he has a terrific family support base. A very small percentage of the population could pull off what he has. Many could live a lifestyle similar to his in that they could become more attached to the land, but to actually carve out a living is a horse of a different color.
So, farmers will go broke, and big corps, with the business expertise, will take over, at significant detriment.
My business is currently set up such that it remains profitable at 1/3 of the average years sales volume. I keep overheads very low, and I keep debt at zero. I never buy new, or even used, equipment, if the equipment I have can be repaired. That goes for trucks, heavy equipment, etc.
There are evn times when I spend more on repair than it would cost to buy a replacement. Seems ridiculous, right? Why do I do it? Because it imprints a culture on the company, and on all employees, that we maintain tight cost control, and that nothing is thrown away or discarded that can be repaired and continued to be used. We do not waste.
When I walk through my plant, I keep an eye out for the odd nut or bolt. I gather them up, and hand them to the nearest employee for sorting and return to stock, with the admonishment that it is not acceptable to waste anything. Some of these things are worth less than the cost to gather them back up, one at a time. But gather them we do, as it is the culture that is important, not the 1/2 cent washer as such.
Most people cannot run a business. Farmers are no exception, and farming is a business Even a lot of people trained in business cannot run a business.
Not long ago, I was approached by a woman for advice. She had returned to her family business, having been an accountant for many years, to take over for her ageing parents. The business is in trouble, mainly because of poor management and a poor culture. She was lamenting that there were two long term managers that were causing a lot of trouble, and were not performing.
What should she do, she asked. Fire them I said. How long will it take she asked. Do it tomorrow I said. She said it was not possible, that it would take her months to do it, to plan and to implement. And I told her “that is likely why your business is failing. You are allowing a culture of waste and inaction. I have told you what you need to do, and I have told you why, and what you are experiencing – a failing business – is what results from poor culture and willingness to accept waste. It is up to you to decide.”
Last I heard she had not acted, and the business was about to go bankrupt.
Farmers are no different. Some are superb at business. Most are not.
“The second is by far the most critical part to running a successful business. And it is not even close.”
I believe this is why all, or mostly all anyway except for specialties, industries are eventually hoovered into 2 or 3 large dominant players.
BonkeyDolls (heh, I do amuse myself) – that can happen. The problem the big boys run into is that they have to run businesses geared to the lowest commin denominator. They have to structure things such that they can kill innovation and initiative. Smaller companies with agile management can do well – until the good management dies off, leaves, etc. But generally speaking, you are correct. The big guys that have business structures in place hoover up the small poorly run businesses, or at least take their sales and/or assets when they collapse.
I’m in an industry now that is not fully mature. I am innovating (I believe based on knowledge and experience) in such a way that I “think” I will be able to centralize it. We shall see. Interesting thing is, the thought pattern to achieve this is MUCH different than that of the laymen. So my point was as you say but also that experts can be purchased, the “Thinker” and the idea guy is the one who leads. Actually it takes more than that but, imo, that’s where it starts. My father used to say ideas are a dime a dozen. I allowed that saying to stunt my achievements.
Btw, it’s nice to see you have a humor bone. Not sure I’ve ever seen you make a joke.
I agree with Pooh 100%. I too have seen exactly what he is saying several times in companies of massive scale. Have any of you heard of Wang Computers? When Dr. Wang died the company died with him because he did just what Pooh is suggesting, and his son did not. I am not suggesting that Mark is wrong, I suspect that there will be a lot of small farmers that are far too close to the edge and find themselves being pushed into bankruptcy by the lack of a trade deal with China. But they wouldn’t have been if they had passed on the fancy belt buckles and the new trucks and tractors that they thought they so desperately needed back when money was loose and banks were lending. But it hasn’t been like that since 2008 and we all know that.
HR – second and third gens kill most family businesses. Without the work ethic, culture, integrity, drive of the founder, they squander the biz. I am not familiar with what happened to Wang after the old man died, but it sounds familiar.
Second generation likes to dance
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I don’t always agree with you but I always look forward to hearing what you have to say as it reflects on your experience. Obviously you pay close attention to what you are doing and what’s going on around you and have learned a great deal about it. You really should write a piece on your experiences as a manufacturer and the changes you’ve seen over the past several decades. I’m always fascinated by the small details you share about it, like the comment above.
I don’t think farmer was trying to discuss farming and business management. I thought he said this is what a Bolshevik takeover of society looks like.
soylent green is chinaman!
Isn’t that Soylent Yellow?
Oh gee, China won’t buy from us so I guess they’ll get all their, say soybeans from Brazil. Well what about the people now buying from Brazil? Does Brazil(these are examples) have an unlimited supply? Of course not and on top of it since now all of their soybeans are accounted for, naturally the price goes up.
So where do their former customers turn to for soybeans? Hmmm think about it. yeah
Another bullshit piece of crap article. Who the fuck writes this shit?
Which country is seeing a reversal of supply chains?
Which country just devalued it’s currency?
Which country’s stock market is tanking? and finally
Which country is communist?
Naysayers like Babylon can fuck off and die. We sure as hell aren’t perfect and we have several SMODs coming our way but I’ll take the under on the US.
https://www.fastcompany.com/90387056/the-un-says-that-we-have-to-completely-transform-how-we-use-land-and-grow-food
Another piece of the puzzle.
I watched a video about these kinds of claims, yet the Chinese were the biggest soybean buyers. The Chinese have many problems as we do. I take the article with a grain of salt.
Well there’s the fact that they just lost 1/3 of their swine herds to the African Swine Virus*.
https://vegnews.com/2019/5/african-swine-flu-set-to-kill-200-million-pigs-in-china
The first case was reported one year ago. A lot can happen in a year.
*Because everyone and everything has a right to migrate across borders freely in a globalist system.
Don’t forget the army worm devastation in China this past spring.
“Many will leave the industry entirely and never go back to farming again, and our nation will be worse off because of it.”
Some truth there, but if I recall correctly, the rise of Big Ag really took off in the 80s. A lot of family / Mom & Pop farms went belly up and their properties were snapped up at depressed rates, fomenting Big Ag’s rise. This rise was further juiced by the “Farm Bailout Bills,” aka subsidies for Big Ag. Yes, many (my family of independent farmers in MN for sure) will be hurt and suffer as a result of the impending collapse. However, the demand for food will always be there, as will the fruited plains of flyover cuntry. Hopefully, out of the ashes of Big Ag will rise the return of Mom & Pop farmers. I fear that instead The Blackstone Group, et al., will become the new deed holders and rebirth Big Ag.
“Many will leave the industry entirely and never go back to farming again…”
There it is. The Industry.
Farming is not an industry. It is the antithesis of an industry.