Guest Post by Tom Luongo
Now that I’ve had a week to process it, the attack on the Saudi Abqaiq oil processing facility was more than a brilliant operation, it was a trap.
And, unfortunately, President Trump just fell in it.
My initial reaction to this was that it could have easily been a false flag to gin up a war with Iran on the eve of Israeli elections. The initial spate of questions hadn’t been answered adequately.
As the week went along, however, it became clear that the responses from all concerned to this attack that the those that took responsibility for it, the Houthis in North Yemen backed by Iranian technology, were the ones that did it.
And it all comes down to the same thing, the Saudi Aramco IPO.
This is a $400 billion deal that is vitally necessary for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to pull off. His plans to modernize the Saudi economy rest completely on this deal and keeping the price of oil from collapsing into the $50’s or even $40’s worldwide.
So while Saudi Arabia and Israel had incentives to stage a ‘false flag,’ Iran and its allies had even more incentive to cripple Saudi oil infrastructure to try and scuttle the Aramco IPO by bringing into question the kingdom’s ability to control not only its borders but also its future production.
The threat to Saudi Arabia goes far beyond the Aramco IPO, however. The future of the country is at stake. Iran knows this, that’s why it happened.
And every reaction so far to this story supports the latter theory than the former. So, as much as some would like to blame Israel in this life for everything bad that happens, I don’t see it this time.
Look at it this way:
- Iran has been smirking behind their beards at the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.
- The Saudis have provided accusations with zero proof.
- Saudi Oil Minister Abdulazziz bin Salman has been running around assuring the markets everything is fine. (Read this puff piece from CNN).
- Trump refused to go to war over this incident.
- Trump instead added sanctions on Iran.
- The Fed cut interest rates and opened up a daily $75 billion repo facility due to dollar illiquidity.
- The Israelis hit the Al-Bukamai border crossing between Iraq and Syria on Sept. 17th and 18th.
Because if the Aramco IPO fails this time around the Saudis have a very limited time frame for solvency without drastically overhauling their financial system and monetary policy.
That’s why there was the mad scramble to send Secretary of State Mike Pompeo over to Jeddah.
What do I mean by President Trump walking into a trap? He announced he’s moving troops into Saudi Arabia, specifically citing economic concerns.
Saudi Arabia requested what the secretary described as “extra defensive support,” he said, and it will “send a clear message that the United States supports our partners in the region.” The move was also made with commerce in mind, as the attack included as a target the world’s largest oil processing facility.
The extra troops would help “ensure the support free flow or resources necessary to support the global economy,” Esper explained.
This is a clear move to shore up the Saudis against Iran-backed aggression and assure investors that Aramco has friends and your returns are guaranteed.
I’m sure Tulsi Gabbard is overjoyed at her ‘brothers and sisters’ being sold to the highest bidder.
This is a $400 billion deal that Wall St. punters have choked on for three years trying to drum up support for. Now that they finally have it lined up, after Trump subordinating U.S. foreign policy to it and Israel for his entire term in office, a few well-placed drones threatens to bring the entire thing crumbling down.
But this is a trap. Iran had to see this as a potential outcome of the attack and committing U.S. troops looks like a ‘check’ move to Iran’s pushing the pawn.
But it’s not. Because the U.S. can’t actually engage here without enmeshing Trump in a quagmire that is deeply unpopular back home and likely more damaging to the markets than if Trump didn’t move troops in.
Because now, with troops on the peninsula, there’s greater potential for conflict.
Moreover, the Houthis have made their point, they can hit the Saudis anywhere. And on the heels of my last article, we have reports now that they have made an incursion north into the province of Jizan.
First, attack far to the east with drones. Second, get the U.S. to commit troops to protect the oil fields and then pressure the Saudis on the ground where they aren’t looking and where American troops can’t be lest some of them come home in body bags.
As Patton would say, “This is where we hold ’em by the nose and kick ’em in the ass.”
What are the U.S. troops going to do, actually? In the end, we’re now using them as human shields to protect a country which invaded their neighbor, is on the brink of financial breakdown, and can’t effectively fight the chaos it’s unleashed.
Let’s take this one step further.
With Benjamin Netanyahu losing the election on Tuesday and likely on the outside of Israeli policy, if not civil society, the Trump administration’s plans for a deal between Israel and the Palestinians is in jeopardy.
A year ago Trump told the Saudis they would have to fend for themselves. Today he’s sending troops to protect Aramco.
What was the point of producing all this oil domestically if we’re going to spend what little money it produces in free cash flow to shore up the Saudi government?
The Kushner deal between Israel and the Palestinians been on hold for most of this year since Egpyt’s President al-Sisi rejected Trump’s overture to join Trump’s Arab NATO alliance to secure Israel’s southern border.
Events since then have conspired to keep its proposal delayed officially.
So, imagine my shock that this morning I wake up to a headline that there are street level protests against al-Sisi’s government that sprang up ‘suddenly’ and without warning.
Say no to Mafia Don’s foreign policy goals? Be regime changed.
How much further is Trump going to go to stitch together this deal? So far he hasn’t been willing to engage in direct confrontation but that’s where this response heads him towards. It leaves U.S. troops vulnerable not only to an actual attack but also to a false flag involving the deaths of American soldiers.
The President had a choice and he chose poorly.
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Back in Saudi??
Yeah, Patton quotes are really appropriate for this situation.
On to the next lame column.
Translation:
Trump is a poor wittle victim. Everything that happens on his watch is due to outside forces beyond his control and he is helpless to do anything about it. He will be given qualified immunity in the minds of all of his disciples whom are also afflicted with cognitive dissonance in the exact same way that Obama and Hillary supporters had their cognitive dissonance with their favorite rulers.
In the next election vote for “no cognitive dissonance”.
Made my comment before reading yours. Said pretty something similar.
No need to trap the willing .
“…individuals of low personal character are those most likely to sell out the interests of their own country in exchange for large sums of foreign money, and as such usually constitute the natural targets of nefarious plotters and foreign spies. ” Ron Unz
American Pravda: Understanding World War II
RON UNZ
http://www.unz.com/runz/american-pravda-understanding-world-war-ii/
Interesting. I would put my money on Israel. No drones were involved in the attack. The attacks were carried out using sophisticated cruise missiles – fired from an Israeli submarine? Further, despite the dramatic nature of the attacks, I predict that production will rebound immediately. These were precision strikes intended to cause just enough damage to seem real but not enough to cripple oil exports. Keep your eye on the ball. As in the case of the Iraq War, the objective – the real objective – is to carry out Israel’s strategic plan to dominate the Middle East. Iran is the last real threat standing, Syris having been reduced to rubble, as were Iraq and Libya. Israel is determined to involve the U.S. in an all-out war with Iran. Trump, as hapless and befuddled as he appears, knows this (he also knows who really was behind 9/11; believe it or not there are still patriots in the intel community who have filled him in). Let’s see what happens.
If they were patriots and Trump was too, they would come forward. Still waiting!
One is either with the Jew or against the Jew. History dictates the latter is the winning choice.
http://www.unz.com/runz/american-pravda-understanding-world-war-ii/
” Given the heavy Jewish involvement in financing Churchill and his allies and also steering the American government and public in the direction of war against Germany, organized Jewish groups probably bore the central responsibility for provoking the world war, and this was surely recognized by most knowledgeable individuals at the time. Indeed, the Forrestal Diaries recorded the very telling statement by our ambassador in London: “Chamberlain, he says, stated that America and the Jews had forced England into the war.”
The ongoing struggle between Hitler and international Jewry had been receiving considerable public attention for years. During his political rise, Hitler had hardly concealed his intent to dislodge Germany’s tiny Jewish population from the stranglehold they had gained over German media and finance, and instead run the country in the best interests of the 99% German majority, a proposal that provoked the bitter hostility of Jews everywhere. Indeed, immediately after he came into office, a major London newspaper had carried a memorable 1933 headline announcing that the Jews of the world had declared war on Germany, and were organizing an international boycott to starve the Germans into submission.
In recent years, somewhat similar Jewish-organized efforts at international sanctions aimed at bringing recalcitrant nations to their knees have become a regular part of global politics. But these days the Jewish dominance of the U.S. political system has become so overwhelming that instead of private boycotts, such actions are directly enforced by the American government. To some extent, this had already been the case with Iraq during the 1990s, but became far more common after the turn of the new century.
Although our official government investigation concluded that the total financial cost of the 9/11 terrorist attacks had been an absolutely trivial sum, the Neocon-dominated Bush Administration nonetheless used this as an excuse to establish an important new Treasury Department position, the Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence. That office soon began utilizing America’s control of the global banking system and dollar-denominated international trade to enforce financial sanctions and wage economic warfare, with these measures typically being directed against individuals, organizations, and nations considered unfriendly towards Israel, notably Iran, Hezbollah, and Syria.
Perhaps coincidentally, although Jews comprise merely 2% of the American population, all four individuals holding that very powerful post over the last 15 years since its inception—Stuart A. Levey, David S. Cohen, Adam Szubin, Sigal Mandelker—have been Jewish, with the most recent of these being an Israeli citizen. Levey, the first Under Secretary, began his work under President Bush, then continued without a break for years under President Obama, underscoring the entirely bipartisan nature of these activities.
Most foreign policy experts have certainly been aware that Jewish groups and activists played the central role in driving our country into its disastrous 2003 Iraq War, and that many of these same groups and individuals have spent the last dozen years or so working to foment a similar American attack on Iran, though as yet unsuccessfully. This seems quite reminiscent of the late 1930s political situation in Britain and America.”
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This article is just a steaming pile of crap.
I am surprised they have not found Iranian passports, displayed along with some old rusted out missile fins and old washing machine/refrigerator parts, as proof that was an “attack”.
one cruise missile would have set the whole damn refinery on fire, lasting for days.
They have no proof because it does not exist, it was a false flag conducted by Israel intelligence, in an effort to help netanyahoo win his election, and both failed miserably.
This is the typical dynamic in the ME, start a fire, blame it on your enemies, use the chaos to gather support for your next move.
The Iranians are too dumb to pull off the attack. Who isn’t? Israel!
Also, the Saudis, Israel, and the US are allied against Iran. The article got one thing right, there was no real damage, again pointing to the unholy alliance. You can’t make this stuff up.
Definitely an asshole disinfo author!
Does anyone ever hold Trump accountable for his actions? It’s always someone else’s fault but his. This time he was tricked by those wily Saudis.
Maybe, just maybe, Trump is an incompetent traitor just like his predecessors.
YEP!