Guest Post by The Zman
According to just about everyone, we are either at war with Iran or about to go to war with Iran. The droning of the Iranian general at the Baghdad airport has unleashed a lot of pent up war hysteria, as well as anti-war hysteria. The neocons are dreaming of another pointless war in the Middle East. The paleocons are warning about how the Iranians will enact vengeance. The anti-Zionists are completely off their leash, making the usual claims about who is really behind all of this.
The truth is, we are not at war with Iran, at least not a conventional war. We have been in a cold war with them since the 1970’s. The temperature rises and falls as domestic politics requires, but it never gets too hot. The main reason for that is Iran is run by fairly competent people. Iran is also much more cohesive than the neighboring countries in the region. Persians have a strong sense of identity that transcends the tribal alliances that dominate in the rest of the Middle East.
Of course, the Iranians now have important ties with Russia and China. The Russians are helping them build nuclear capability and the Chinese are providing them with conventional military technology. Both countries are in bed with the Iranians because Iran sits on large oil and gas reserves. China is starving for oil and the Russians are a player in Europe because they control the gas supplies. Those are strong incentives to prevent a US – Iran war.
At the same time, America is in no position to launch another war in the Middle East, at least not a ground war. Trump can call in drone strikes and maybe air strikes from subs and carriers, but that would be very risky. To get a ground force together would require prepping the public and getting Congress to sign off on it. It would also mean talking Trump into something he has opposed. War is always bad politics. In an election year where his prospects are even money at best, that’s a foolish gamble for him.
History is full of examples where countries bluffed themselves into a war that neither side wanted, so it is not completely out of the question. Israel could blow something up and the neocons running the State Department could talk Trump into believing the Iranians did it. Some rogue element in Iran could do something foolish. Then there are the many guerrilla and terrorist groups supported by Iran. One of them could do something provocative and set us on a path to war.
Even so, the odds are very low that this current crisis lasts more than a week, other than some hotly worded tweets from Trump and bellicose rants from Iran. This raises a few questions. One is why the anti-war people have flipped out as if they were just waiting for a reason to get back in the streets. They were not going crazy when Trump lobbed missiles into Syria. They were silent when Venezuela was on the brink. It’s as if someone flipped a switch and reactivated the anti-war people.
The bigger question is why Trump has decided to take this step. It’s clear he has no interest in starting a war. He has been trying to get troops out of the Middle East for three years now. Taking out this general is a high risk move that could lead to terrorist attacks this year. The White House is warning Congress that retaliation in the next weeks is a possibility. Even if a full blown shooting war with Iran is unlikely, it does not mean there will be no fallout from this venture.
One possibility is that Trump is just dumb and he got bamboozled by the neocons into attacking Iran. They cooked up a story about how this general was plotting a terror attack and he fell for it. This is popular with the anti-Zionists. They believe the neocons are like super-villains, able to hypnotize politicians. They have finally figured out how to maneuver Trump into going along with their schemes. It’s possible. The distinguishing feature of Trumps’ time in office has been incompetence.
The trouble with this theory is that Trump has been pretty good at dodging the neocon war plots thus far. This is not the first time they cooked up a plot to attack Iran. He has even joked about guys like John Bolton wanting to bomb the world. He also avoided the various traps they set with Syria. Trump may not be very good at governing, but he seems pretty well aware of how the neocons operate. He has been as good at shining them on as he has the immigration patriots.
Another answer is that Trump saw this as a chance to break the deadlock over nuclear negotiations with Iran. Think back to how he broke all the protocols in order to get the North Koreans to the table. All prior presidents refused to meet with the North Korean leader, but Trump not only agreed to meet, he pushed for it. His erratic and unconventional management style is an extension of his negotiating style. He likes to throw over tables and create chaos as a prelude to deal making.
Evidence of this is his tweet after the droning of the general. In addition to the boiler plate stuff, he made the point that he preferred to negotiate and the Iranians should prefer it too. In other words, this high risk, high stakes gambit is about breaking the stalemate and getting all the various players to rethink their position. Trump is a legendary bluffer and this is basically a big bluff. He’s threatening unconditional drone warfare unless they come to the table.
The other side of this is he gets a boost with his base who love the fact he took out this general with a drone strike. Despite what the anti-Zionists think, this is a winner for him with his core supporters. If nothing comes of it, he will be able to say he has tried to bring the Iranians to the table, but they will not budge. He played the same cards with North Korea. As a political matter, he gets to be both the tough guy, who drones bad guys, and the peacemaker seeking to talk rather than fight.
Finally, there is the possibility that this is tied into the impeachment process that will get going again this month. Senate Republicans like Mitt Romney and Ben Sassy are wholly owned by Jerusalem. In order to get their vote in the impeachment fight, Trump may be forced to give into the forever war crowd. This attack and the subsequent bluster about more attacks may be the real quid pro quo. If anyone thinks this is too conspiratorial, just look at the anti-BDS campaign.
The likelihood of this scenario leading to war, however, is low as the impeachment lever has a clear expiry date on it. There is an election brewing and Washington needs to dispense with the impeachment issue by February at the latest. That’s enough time to do some drone strikes and saber rattling, but not enough time to gin up support for a war with Iran. Instead it will just make negotiating with Iran impossible for the remainder of Trump’s tenure, which may be the real point.
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Zman is pretty cavalier. As a paleocon, I certainly worry where this is going. Stockman’s article makes more sense. The military industrial complex runs this country, with the zionists having an outsized influence.
Of all the disappointments in the Trump presidency, this one is qualitatively different. I’m weary. I’m weary of him. I’m weary of common sense ideas (like securing the border) being thwarted by a Uniparty that doesn’t care what people want, and I’m weary of voting for peace and getting war. Even W ran as the “compassionate conservative” who opposed nation-building. It’s the illusion of choice. I’m tired.
Second your motion. But add sick. Sick and tired of it.
Bullshit, Iska! That sounds like communist talk. If we don’t nuke everybody from space, the terrorists will win and it will be the fault of people like you who give up at the tiniest hint of trouble.
LOL. Hey buddy. I’m almost about to climb on the Bernie bandwagon. I disagree with him on much: climate change, abortion, etc. but he’s never been an anti-gunner (being from VT) and always understood open borders to be a Koch Brothers scheme. November’s a long way off. I think I need to tune out. I keep listening to this, though:
I hope I’m not turning gay.
Not that I was ever on the “Trump Train”, just voted for him because “lesser of 2 evils”. When the first missile flew in Syira knew he was full of shit and bought off. I’ll never vote again.
Like you, I consider myself more of a paleocon like PJB than a libertarian. I proudly campaigned for him but that seems like a different country and a radically different time. Or perhaps I am a right-leaning, classical liberal. I don’t really know. EC probably knows me and my leanings better than I do, LOL.
Charlie and mygirl had talked me off the ledge at one point, but to come off now would be to sacrifice some of my very basic moral precepts. I care about my children too much to continue to support this asshole. I want the whole fucking evil system of pedophiles and murderers to burn to the ground in flaming bankruptcy so that we at least have a 50/50 shot at something better. And the only way I know of doing that is to expedite my preps and to convince as many people as possible to shun our modern-day William Howard Taft, aka Trumpeo.
I never thought my friend and manager would *ever* shun Trumpeo, but he texted me over vacation with a couple of comments about the attack and ended it with “I like Tulsi.” No prompting from me. Trumpeo fucked himself bad on this one. Even if he’s re-elected, he will be stymied by everyone, and for good reason.
So if Iran ‘droned’ a U.S. general …. would America not declare that to be an act of war?
How conveniently you gloss over the attack on our embassy, orchestrated by this now-dead terrorist/general. He was present in Iraq illegally and directed a military assault on US citizens on US sovereign territory (embassy). That constitutes an…..wait for it…..act of war against our country. A drone attack which eliminated the person responsible for this war crime, without even the risk of American casualties. Perfect response, carried out in a very timely manner.
Trump and the neocons are very happy to have your support! I’ll send you an Uber to get you immediately to your local military recruiting center. Remember to bring your kids and tell your employer you’ll be back in 18 months – if ever. We appreciate your service!
The attack on our embassy? You mean where a handful of hooligans managed to crack a couple of windows and light some garbage on fire?
The attack on our multi-billion dollar military installation?
FIFY.
Well put, DFJ150, thank you. I am wondering if we had drones in 1939 would we have had WW2? Perhaps he has stopped a war?
“America is in no position to launch another war in the Middle East, at least not a ground war.” Tell that to the zionist jews who run America…
Iran is stuck between a rock and a hard place. If they do nothing, they look weak and I don’t think they like looking weak. If they do something in retaliation it opens up the possibility for the US to strike back even harder. Could they be in a position where they feel like their backs are against the wall and they have nothing to lose by retaliating?
We have sanctioned the shit out of them. A cornered starving dog is mean and will bite.
We bombed the Iraqis back to the stone age and we can do the same to Iran. Except they have friends in China and North Korea. What to do? It’s time to cozy up to the Russians and Germany. Putin, old pal.
Southerners have dibs on Vlad. You Californians are stuck with the ChiComs. I’m hoping Putin supplies the South when SHTF.
Sounds like the old – war is just diplomacy by other means. Assassination is just an extension of diplomacy.
I wonder if we will accept more bridges mysteriously collapsing (remember the bullshit about corrosion?) like they did back in Bush’s time as simply Iranian diplomacy by other methods?
Remind us about these “corroded bridges?”
It is in my backyard! The video had a graphic on Memphis! LOL! Let’s see how far that goes….
Memphis is North Mississippi but worse because it sits on a fault line. Move at least east of Jackson.
Fuck they are everywhere. I had a couple of terrorists under my bed eating popcorn and watching netflix on the cellphone I lost. I had to shoo them away by waving a pork chop at them.
Mohammedans of all stripes are at war with us. Only fools think otherwise. There will be no peace with them until we kill them all. There might be some good Mohammedans but let allah sort them out.
USA is not spotless but the Mohammedans would be at war with us if we were. Jew bashing and virtue signaling is just anti war bull shit.
You can be the hero and pound on your Roid Rage neighbor’s door when he hits his wife for the 99th time. You’d better also prepare yourself for the consequences. Trumpeo is protected by taxpayer-funded, 24/7 security, everywhere he goes. You and I aren’t, and neither are our loved ones.
” Israel could blow something up and the neocons running the State Department could talk Trump into believing the Iranians did it. ”
Sounds just like an anti-zionist who is completely off his leash.
He contradicts himself. The Zionists wear leashes.
I don’t believe that Trump is in control of the government anymore, if he ever was at all.
He is a hostage to the two (or more) warring factions within our government, the Prog/Marxists (the political/media/academic establishment) and the Zionist Military Industrial Complex.
This was the MIC’s version of impeachment. Once they saw he was held in check by the establishment political structure they were free to start whatever conflict they wanted. They launched this on their own and then dropped responsibility in his lap. The only reason he’s copped to it is because if he had said anything he would have exposed himself as the lamest of ducks- he doesn’t even have control of the military- and he has absolutely no allies withing the government, The only benefit he has in accepting responsibility is that an incumbent POTUS rarely loses during time of conflict.
He’s checkmated six ways from Sunday.
Tell me this doesn’t make more sense than any other current narrative.
I agree with the checkmate statement, however I really do think it’s simpler than that. It’s too many standard deviations outside the range of plausibility, hence typical Game Theory, for me to consider without firm evidence.
Either there is legitimate dirt on Trumpeo and he is desperately trying to save his own ass (How many of the 17 were firm Yeas before now?), or he’s getting some piss poor advice. I’ve seen a lot of shit and been privy to quite a bit and I have never seen such knee-jerk decision-making. For all the evil and sadistic shit Obama did, no one can say he didn’t twist his mustache with careful deliberation before making every major decision.
The Trumpeo Presidency is over, even if he is re-elected. I think this idiocy could even prompt that cunt Moochelle, the Androgyne Extraordinaire, to reconsider entering the race. And you know what? She’d beat him like a drum.
I think it sounds plausible that Trump was talked into doing this by Pompeo etal, then his Generals turned on him. They don’t get a pass. They are responsible, too.
“It’s looking like the NeverTrump neocons President Trump surrounded himself with are already stabbing him in the back through selective leaks to the New York Times after convincing him to assassinate Iranian General Qassem Soleimani.”
http://www.informationliberation.com/?id=61077
https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Biographies/Display/Article/108119/general-lori-j-robinson/
When I was an instructor at Tinker, crawling around with the grease monkeys in the aft lower lobe, Lori Robinson came through training. It was a time of great change and people noticed the women in the green bags and put them into positions of great honor.
She ended up with the same sort of command stature as Eisenhower! A weapons officer! What would be a drone operator now. I flew with her a time or two (long before she had stars on thars) and she was personable and professional. She was also very much aware of the enlisted/officer difference. When forced to share an apartment at the Khobar Towers (before the bombing, of course), she kept her door closed until the four of us enlisted gals closed ours and seemed to be asleep.
Then, she went into the kitchen and made her dinner. She was just a Captain then… I was a SSgt with a good 2000 flying hours in my flight suit pocket and made sure that radar kept them little dots on her television screen, but I was not good enough to eat with.
Story of my life.
I sent her a letter hoping to engage her in an interview after Trump’s election. In another of life’s strange coincidences, their daughter, an active duty pilot, was killed in a non-combat accident and she retired, abruptly.
She could just be avoiding me again. 1/2 sarc (semi-sarcastic)
You are exactly on the target, Marc, as you know. There are two scenarios I’ve seen in critical military situations: Command authority deflects both action and responsibility by asking the “expert” to tell them what to do, even if that expert is a lower ranking person who is expert on weapons but NOT on theater protocol. Command authority is supposed to be expert on theater protocol.
UN helicopter shootdown 1994.
Second Scenario? Command authority completely ignores all expert opinion and proceeds with Plan A, long after Plan A has turned into an exercise in futility.
Look at the “word” futility. It seems like it should be a funny word. But, it isn’t. Now when the bombs are being dropped before they are ever called into action.
Whether you are able to read this or not (and I know how the chores heap up after a trip away, even with good help) someone around here will read it and perhaps think about what I’m NOT saying.
I do not know what happened in 1994 when that helicopter got shot down. What I DO KNOW is that the records I packed up to send as the NCOIC of that records management “team” were not the ones that came back.
Not all of them.
And at least one had a different name.
That’s about all I “recall” about that right now.
Yup!
http://www.informationliberation.com/?id=61077